Wanna Bet's Play of the Week Volume IV: Wanderlei Silva vs Rich Franklin

[DeFactoCrippler]

Wow. Just wow.

I'm going to respectfully STRONGLY disagree with this

I'm not trying to start a flame war over this but I feel Cung was clearly winning. I don't even understand how anyone could think otherwise. You think they would give Wandy a 20-18 round for that, wtf, when you you ever seen an MMA round scored 20-18 because of a knockdown? (although it probably should be)

I like your ability to break down fights but I feel some of what is going on here is that you are trying to "sell" your pick. I don't think you are be even-handed in the areas of Wandys chin and cardio. But rather acting as if you have a "side" in a debate and bringing whatever you need to support you argument.

I could be wrong but I just get the feeling you try to poke holes in whatever counter argument comes up. You yourself aren't saying wandy is a lock or should be like -300, so obviously there are going to be serious question marks surrounding Wandy, so why pretend like they don't exist or severely downplay them?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I'm not trying to start a flame war over this but I feel Cung was clearly winning. I don't even understand how anyone could think otherwise. You think they would give Wandy a 20-18 round for that, wtf, when you you ever seen an MMA round scored 20-18 because of a knockdown? (although it probably should be)

I like your ability to break down fights but I feel some of what is going on here is that you are trying to "sell" your pick. I don't think you are be even-handed in the areas of Wandys chin and cardio. But rather acting as if you have a "side" in a debate and bringing whatever you need to support you argument.

I could be wrong but I just get the feeling you try to poke holes in whatever counter argument comes up. You yourself aren't saying wandy is a lock or should be like -300, so obviously there are going to be serious question marks surrounding Wandy, so why pretend like they don't exist or severely downplay them?

DFC coming out with educated counter-points & critique. I like this side of you. I can see that you've taken past comments to heart. Good on ya.

I'm not suggesting that Wanderlei is not without his warts as a 34 year old shop-worn fighter but strictly in this matchup, a 37 year old shop-worn opponent without KO power isn't the guy to exploit that. Vitor was and I was all over The Phenom until the bout was cancelled but Rich is a nice stylistic matchup for Wand here.

First I have to clarify though, what is a 20-18 round? You're getting confused here. 20-18 would be a 10-9 Silva in rounds 1 & 2 for the way he completely took over the fight in the latter stages of each round and nearly finished his opponent both times (assuming the ref didn't stop it in round two). Considering the absolutely vicious damage Cung took in getting swarmed with punches, transitioning to the Thai plumm when Cung put his arms up to defend himself allow Wand to slip behind, blasting him with face-altering knees the likes of which haven't been seen since my nephew showed me his Mr Potatohead creation and then back to a massive left hook and hammer fists when Cung shot for a single leg, many flexible judges would score that a 10-8 round (thus making it 20-17) particularly if it was fought in Brazil with a raucous crowd, the damage on Cung's face and biased/swayed judges. I don't think Cung would even be able to get off of the stool for round three in any case; he took a long time to recover after that TKO and he would be gasping for air through his mouth for the duration of the fight.

With respect to being even handed or not, I can accept that as a criticism. I've tried to find weaknesses in Silva that could be exploited so as to not be naive here and end up holding my dick in my hand at the end of the night. I'd like to walk away holding 4-figures not 5-fingers.

So I've really poured over the tapes on Wand's chin to see the likelihood of a Rich finish on a probabilistic scale and I think, although certainly possible, it's nowhere near the implied odds. The other perceived likely outcome is a Franklin decision. I've already described trying to transpose the renaissance Wand of 185 and his stylistic approach to winning rounds or finishing late versus Franklin. The bias I appear to have I feel is related to the stacked odds/bias in Wanderlei's favour that makes it seem like I'm pulling for one guy.

Is Wanderlei coming off surgery? Is Wanderlei the one cutting down now? Is Wanderlei the one coming off a loss? Is Wanderlei coming off of a 16 month layoff? Is Wanderlei fighting in a foreign country? Is Wanderlei fighting in front of 25,000 fans who will boo anything you do to try to win on points and pressure the ref to even the playing field back to making it Silva's fight? Is Wanderlei fighting against biased judges? Is Wanderlei being challenged by an opponent who wants revenge for a prior razor thin loss?

They may seem like biases in favour of Wanderlei but they all point to one reality. The odds are heavily in Wanderlei's favour this time out.

And, actually, yes I'm comfortable saying that this fight should more appropriately be capped at -200 for Wand than at +150. It's simply not because, on the surface, the fight isn't that skewed and that's what the public thinks: they're scared to put money on Wanderlei because his chin is shot.

Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

[DeFactoCrippler]

DFC coming out with educated counter-points & critique. I like this side of you. I can see that you've taken past comments to heart. Good on ya.

Oh don't worry, I will shit all over ANYONE here if they fock around.

First I have to clarify though, what is a 20-18 round? You're getting confused here. 20-18 would be a 10-9 Silva in rounds 1 & 2 for the way he completely took over the fight in the latter stages of each round and nearly finished his opponent both times (assuming the ref didn't stop it in round two). Considering the absolutely vicious damage Cung took in getting swarmed with punches, transitioning to the Thai plumm when Cung put his arms up to defend himself allow Wand to slip behind, blasting him with face-altering knees the likes of which haven't been seen since my nephew showed me his Mr Potatohead creation and then back to a massive left hook and hammer fists when Cung shot for a single leg, many flexible judges would score that a 10-8 round (thus making it 20-17) particularly if it was fought in Brazil with a raucous crowd, the damage on Cung's face and biased/swayed judges. I don't think Cung would even be able to get off of the stool for round three in any case; he took a long time to recover after that TKO and he would be gasping for air through his mouth for the duration of the fight.

yeah, my bad, I meant to say what MMA judge would score the 2nd round 10-8 if Cung had survived. Believe me, I think rounds like that should be scored 10-8, but they never are. Could you show me an example of when it was? Cause I can only think of times it isn't, 10-8 rounds are as rare as 10-10 rounds. I don't think I have ever seen one from "striking alone" only when they took top control early and the other fighter just lay there and got beat up bad.

It's actually a pet peeve of mine in regards to MMA scoring.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I'm not suggesting that Wanderlei is not without his warts as a 34 year old shop-worn fighter but strictly in this matchup, a 37 year old shop-worn opponent without KO power isn't the guy to exploit that. Vitor was and I was all over The Phenom until the bout was cancelled but Rich is a nice stylistic matchup for Wand here.

I agree Rich is a better matchup for him than Vitor, but "stylistic-ly" I don't agree Rich is a good matchup at all. He has reach and the footwork to avoid Wandy. He did it last time, Wandy could not get a single thing off he even went for a takedown in that first round. Only time wandy got off was in the second round when Rich got "adventurous".

That doesn't mean the same thing will happen this time, but it was a clash of "styles" in which Wandy's style defintely came out the loser. he was reduced to winging power punches just looking to get lucky and connect.

And, actually, yes I'm comfortable saying that this fight should more appropriately be capped at -200 for Wand than at +150. It's simply not because, on the surface, the fight isn't that skewed and that's what the public thinks: they're scared to put money on Wanderlei because his chin is shot.

My negatives for Wandy

- chin shot, straihgt up brain damage. if a boxer took that many KO's everyone would be saying he should retire. This is not to mention all the "gym" ko's he has apparently suffered.
- inferior cardio
- inferior technical ability (every aspect)
- fight is 5 rounds

Positives for Wandy

- power
- fight is in brazil
- question marks surrounding rich

[DeFactoCrippler]

That doesn't mean the same thing will happen this time, but it was a clash of "styles" in which Wandy's style defintely came out the loser. he was reduced to winging power punches just looking to get lucky and connect.

Just to add onto this, Wandy hasn't really been able to get ANYTHING off for a long time. And with age and brain injury your reflexes and speed only decrease.

- didn't get anything off vs rampage
- got little off against rich the first time, was stymied for the most part
- was unable to really hurt bisping, best flurry came at the end of the fight (bisping footwork and reach similar to rich)
- got ktfo by leben
- got NOTHING off on Cung until he gassed

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Oh don't worry, I will shit all over ANYONE here if they fock around.



yeah, my bad, I meant to say what MMA judge would score the 2nd round 10-8 if Cung had survived. Believe me, I think rounds like that should be scored 10-8, but they never are. Could you show me an example of when it was? Cause I can only think of times it isn't, 10-8 rounds are as rare as 10-10 rounds. I don't think I have ever seen one from "striking alone" only when they took top control early and the other fighter just lay there and got beat up bad.

It's actually a pet peeve of mine in regards to MMA scoring.

Maynard-Edgar round 1 of II and III.

I'm sure there are a number of other examples but those two come to mind recently. Vicious damage + knockdowns = 10-8. Although Wanderlei didn't dominate Cung for most of the round like Maynard did, Frankie wasn't saved by the bell which affects the perception of domination; Cung was getting absolutely smashed up until the end of round two (and could only be projected to keep eating vicious hammer fists for 15 more seconds, delusional/high Joe Rogan commentary of NCAA D-1 Cung working the single leg be damned).

[MMAbetMASTA]

So Rich is a TERRIBLE play at -150 to -200 IMHO.

Agree that rich at that range isn't enticing and doesn't have much value, but imo neither does wand at the current odds... Rich is the clear fav I just thought it'd be set closer to even...

This is a clear no play imo (at least at the current odds) with regard to a SU play, there will prob be some decent props, but its a hard fight to predict imo and there should be better lines with easier predictability compared to this match.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Maynard-Edgar round 1 of II and III.

I'm sure there are a number of other examples but those two come to mind recently. Vicious damage + knockdowns = 10-8. Although Wanderlei didn't dominate Cung for most of the round like Maynard did, Frankie wasn't saved by the bell which affects the perception of domination; Cung was getting absolutely smashed up until the end of round two (and could only be projected to keep eating vicious hammer fists for 15 more seconds, delusional/high Joe Rogan commentary of NCAA D-1 Cung working the single leg be damned).

Thats a good call on Maynard/Edgar, but you still have to factor in that it did happen at the end of the round. If a BJJ specialist gets the mount or locks up a sub in the dying seconds of the round it is definitely safe to assume they would end the fight, but you can't give them the round because of it.

Whereas Maynard clearly beat the shit out of Edgar for the entire round with what appeared to be numerous knockdowns. It's hard to score it in MMA cause in boxing the ref counts for a knockdown, and Frankie was just getting hit and flopping around. Point is, that was rare, and is one of the few fights in which a 10-8 round occured (imo could be wrong though).

[DeFactoCrippler]

Agree that rich at that range isn't enticing and doesn't have much value, but imo neither does wand at the current odds... Rich is the clear fav I just thought it'd be set closer to even...

This is a clear no play imo (at least at the current odds) with regard to a SU play, there will prob be some decent props, but its a hard fight to predict imo and there should be better lines with easier predictability compared to this match.

I tend to agree here. For me, I would definitely wait until the weigh ins before placing a bet.

[gabe]

Wow. Just wow.

I'm going to respectfully STRONGLY disagree with this.

I'm going to ask you to either reconsider that line or rewatch the fight. Wanderlei was up at least 20-18 and more likely 20-17 if Le had been able to survive the second round onslaught while Wanderlei pounded him out with hammer fists while grabbing that single leg. Le had a nice sequence in the first three minutes of round one, although he got tagged by Wand once early as well, and then got swarmed and almost finished with 20 seconds left of round one. I'm not talking about how it *should* be scored but how it *would* be scored. Le got demolished in round two, a 10-8 by most with Wand pounding him out for 10 seconds longer.

From a damage POV and from a 10 point must MMA scoring POV (not even taking into account the crowd impression/biased judging that needs to be incorporated into the Wand-Rich capping model), Wand was up HUGE on the scorecards and would have won a decision regardless of who won round 3.

Are you high??????????????? I ask, as I hold my pipe.

Le clearly won Rd 1 and while gassed out was winning Rd 2 until he got knocked out.

It sounds to me like you had money on Wandy.

[Vaughany]

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Are you high??????????????? I ask, as I hold my pipe.

Le clearly won Rd 1 and while gassed out was winning Rd 2 until he got knocked out.

It sounds to me like you had money on Wandy.

Nope, I'm not high. But you certainly are (admittedly).

The Live In-Play betting for Wand dropped astronomically on 5Dimes. Silva was a close to 2:1 dog by the time of the fight (+191 on 5D) but by the end of round one IIRC Wanderlei was in the -200 ballpark. The fact is, most people have no fukking idea how to cap Wanderlei anymore: the public got absolutely SLAUGHTERED on this fight. Look at the curve: it's freaking exponential!



I had moderate money on Silva. I didn't know how his chin would look post-Leben so I couldn't risk going large but I felt that he would circle off, let Le tag him & take control of the round and then look for his opening and go berzerker on him like he did to Bisping at the end of every round.

Wanderlei's chin looked excellent in that fight. Seriously, watch the fight in HD and slow it down when he gets tagged/dropped everytime. He was "wobbled" by a spinning back fist early (according to Joe) which Wanderlei had his back turned to the camera so I can't confirm/deny but I can at least say that his legs didn't give out. Then he parried a straight left from Cung, countered with a right hook which Cung countered simultaneously with a brilliant spinning back fist that landed right on the chin and knocked Silva down. Look at Silva getting "dropped" there closely: he gets knocked off balance. You can see that he's completely with it when it happens and he gets up immediately. He's never dropped again that fight. He does take a massive right hand from Cung in round two on the chin with a rotational force that snaps Wanderlei's chin but doesn't even wobble or drop him. Chuck would've been out from that punch, no doubt. Wanderlei ate it like it ain't no thang.

The rumours of Wanderlei's chin being cracked are grossly overstated. I'm happy to sit alone on this POV, judging by most people countering my arguments with this blanket statement. I feel I will be vindicated come June 23rd.

[Vaughany]

http://www.youtube.com/?feature=player_embedded

[DeFactoCrippler]

Wanderlei's chin looked excellent in that fight. Seriously, watch the fight in HD and slow it down when he gets tagged/dropped everytime. He was "wobbled" by a spinning back fist early (according to Joe) which Wanderlei had his back turned to the camera so I can't confirm/deny but I can at least say that his legs didn't give out. Then he parried a straight left from Cung, countered with a right hook which Cung countered simultaneously with a brilliant spinning back fist that landed right on the chin and knocked Silva down. Look at Silva getting "dropped" there closely: he gets knocked off balance. You can see that he's completely with it when it happens and he gets up immediately. He's never dropped again that fight. He does take a massive right hand from Cung in round two on the chin with a rotational force that snaps Wanderlei's chin but doesn't even wobble or drop him. Chuck would've been out from that punch, no doubt. Wanderlei ate it like it ain't no thang.

1. Can you agree that when you say Wandy won round 1 against Cung, it's like saying you had bradley beating pac? It does not mean you are wrong, but it does mean you disagree with everyone here and mma sites ect. I would love to see the scorecards, I just took it for granted that Cung won round 1. Round 2 wasn't scored so that is a matter of opinion.

2. In regards to Wand's chin there are some very important things we gotta think about.

- Your chin doesn't improve. So if Wand's chin looked shot in previous fights, it's shot.

- There is no legitimate reason to believe that Wand will have improved since his last fight. Your reflexes don't get better with age, let alone brain injuries, this is fact.

- Even in the Cung fight, that was about the only clean head shot he took. Most of Cung's offense came from kicks to the body. So, Wanderlei got "dropped" (or "wobbled") by the only head shot he took, not to mention getting brutally kayoed in 4 of his last 9 nine fights, not to mention all the gym kayos he was rumored to have, and you are saying there is no problem with his chin? We just need to watch the tape closely?

[scofflaw]

So much has already been said on both sides so I'll keep it somewhat brief. I favor Franklin to win, probably by stoppage. I think Rich has the superior skill set, durability and fight IQ to win. This is more a Wand fade than faith in Franklin though. Franklin doesn't have a great chin but I think Wand's is completely gone. The Cung Le win didn't inspire any extra confidence in Silva either. Cung is a one trick pony and it's expected that he should be easily handled by a complete, veteran mma fighter.

I'm not sure the 'Forrest litmus test' is appropriate for this fight. Forrest used his superior size and top control to hold Rich down and work his ground game almost the entire fight. Wand doesn't fight this way and doesn't have a size advantage. I see Franklin mostly outpointing Silva until he catches Silva coming in with a clean shot in the 3rd or 4th.

Wanna bet, It seems like you're a pretty big Silva fan so I hope you were being objective while capping this fight.

[Beelzebubzy]

Fight was 3 years ago tho, both of their chins, or at least their ability to take punishment in general has deteriorated considerably IMO.

Eggsacrtly

[gabe]

DeFacto is on the $

[DeFactoCrippler]

DeFacto is on the $

dude, I'm watching his fights now 9cause soccer is boring as fock) and Rogan was talking about his Vale Tudo days and fighting bare knuckle in brazil. God knows how many times he's been kayoed.

Like you I would have Franklin as a big fave if the fight was in Vegas, but it being in Brazil is a huge advantage for Wand, imo.

[gabe]

dude, I'm watching his fights now 9cause soccer is boring as fock) and Rogan was talking about his Vale Tudo days and fighting bare knuckle in brazil. God knows how many times he's been kayoed.

Like you I would have Franklin as a big fave if the fight was in Vegas, but it being in Brazil is a huge advantage for Wand, imo.

Could be a disadvantage. He could give in to the crowd too much and throw wreckless punches, leaving his chin open for a technical striker w/ long limbs.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

1. Can you agree that when you say Wandy won round 1 against Cung, it's like saying you had bradley beating pac? It does not mean you are wrong, but it does mean you disagree with everyone here and mma sites ect. I would love to see the scorecards, I just took it for granted that Cung won round 1. Round 2 wasn't scored so that is a matter of opinion.

2. In regards to Wand's chin there are some very important things we gotta think about.

- Your chin doesn't improve. So if Wand's chin looked shot in previous fights, it's shot.

- There is no legitimate reason to believe that Wand will have improved since his last fight. Your reflexes don't get better with age, let alone brain injuries, this is fact.

- Even in the Cung fight, that was about the only clean head shot he took. Most of Cung's offense came from kicks to the body. So, Wanderlei got "dropped" (or "wobbled") by the only head shot he took, not to mention getting brutally kayoed in 4 of his last 9 nine fights, not to mention all the gym kayos he was rumored to have, and you are saying there is no problem with his chin? We just need to watch the tape closely?

Completely disagree about the Pacquiao-Bradley analogy. Firstly, Wanderlei finished the round very strong, like Pacquiao did in a lot of the mid-rounds, and Pacquiao won rounds 3-6 on majority/all cards. Obviously Cung looked good earlier in the round, as opposed to a balanced fight between Manny & Tim, but the fact that Wanderlei came on strong and MMA judges love to score the last minute heavily, Wand definitely would've won on the scorecards in Brazil. The live betting further supports that. So, no, I don't think I'm being unconventional here; I'm scoring the fight how it WOULD be, not SHOULD be.

With regards to Cung's strikes, seriously you can't be more off. "That was about the only clean head shot he took". Da Fukk? SERIOUSLY, I hope you are just responding off of memory and not from a recent rewatch. Cung PRIMARILY landed headshots not bodyshots and landed two huge spinning back fists and a huge right counter hook that snapped Wanderlei's chin. How many massive headshots do you expect an MMA fighter to take with 5 ounce gloves for a proper chin check? My goodness, very few guys take the chin shots Wand ate in that fight.

Was Wanderlei's chin not cracked after suffering three vicious KOs in his 5 prior fights to the Franklin fight? Somehow I'm to believe that Leben cracked it though?! OK, well then how did he absorb so many chin shots with significant rotational force so as to snap his neck vs Cung, yet Wand ate them?

At this point, I just feel that I'm repeating myself. You can watch the footage for yourself and look for what I'm citing and either agree or continue to disagree. I don't care. I feel very confident in my analysis.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Clearly my perspective is viewed as contrarian and it's an uphill battle, arguing with people who are going by regurgitated myths circulating on internet message boards, nostalgia of PRIDE Wanderlei versus current day Wanderlei, or people lacking critical analysis skills.

All I can say is that I don't feel this confident and this contrarian to "conventional wisdom" since everyone was telling me that my critical analysis of Dustin Poirier vs Korean Zombie was completely off and Poirier would outclass KZ everywhere.

I fully expect all of the bandwagon Axe Murderer fans to jump back on after June 23rd, starting Sherdog threads about one more title run and how he was never washed up... I saw the same shit happen on Sherdog regarding KZ... except I called it weeks before the event even happened.

I'm calling it now. Wanderlei doesn't have a cracked chin. He will beat Rich. Talk will thicken about Wanderlei being 1-2 fights away from a title shot. It sounds crazy now; it won't be in two weeks.

[gabe]

Face it, dude. Everybody but you scored Round 1 for Le.

Look at all the MMA sites.

[Vaughany]

Wannabetonit vs rest of SBR MMA forum in a lumberjack match....Chandlerblades as guest refereee....Wanna bet on it?

[DeFactoCrippler]

Clearly my perspective is viewed as contrarian and it's an uphill battle, arguing with people who are going by regurgitated myths circulating on internet message boards, nostalgia of PRIDE Wanderlei versus current day Wanderlei, or people lacking critical analysis skills.

Honestly bro, you lack critical analysis skills. You have employed about every single logical fallacy in the book. You opinion is biased from the very begininng, seeing as how this isn't a "brainstorming" session it is merely you disseminating information (considering you had already reached your conclusion before you even posted).

You are getting your jimmies rustled because people disagree with you. Think of it like this...

You offered people a plate of pre prepared food. They declined.

You asked why? They said it looked like shit.

You implored them to try it, they then said it smelled like shit too.

Then you went off and said YOU WILL ALL SEE, ILL SHOW YOU THAT IM RIGHT, THE FOOD IS DELICIOUS, YOU"LL SEE


It's funny how one person can watch tape and see a COMPLETELY different thing than EVERYBODY else and then accuse them of not thinking clearly.

You bring up your previous wins (a logical fallacy), despite the sheer hypocrisy of not mentioning the two blunders you made in your other videos. If you think tape is the magical answer then please watch this one

[Wanna Bet On It?]

My two previous blunders had little technical analysis (particularly the Brookins-Oliviera fight where I depended on more assumptions than I'd like for a LARGE play considering the lack of Brookins BJJ footage). I scale my bets accordingly (1U Miller -3.5 @+165, 4U Korean Zombie @+281, 3U Brookins @+170, and 7.25U on Wanderlei @+150).

The two blunders were 2 & 3 minutes long. My KZ/Poirier video was 17 minutes long, saturated with technical analysis and subtleties on how I projected the fight to go. My perspective was vindicated.

My Wand/Rich video is much of the same. Highlighting vulnerabilities in Wand which are significantly less likely than are being projected. Specific intangibles regarding the first and second fight which will impact the ebb & flow of the fight and can lead to drastically different outcomes. Perpetuated myths regarding Wanderlei's chin that are flatout wrong JUST LIKE the perpetuated myths about KZ being the same stylistic fighter that walks forward and wars & will be quickly KOed by Poirier (pffft, Roop KOed him dummy! you're crazy).

People that trust my insight can dig through the footage I reference and view it for themselves. If they continue to back my plays, I'm supremely confident that they will profit in the long run. It's plays like this that are major bankroll builders IMHO. Win the coinflips and slight dog plays moderate/large or deep dogs small/moderate.

But hey, if you're ultraconservative than play it small/moderate. I advise 7.25% BR play (of pure profit still) on this. Personally, I'm going modified Kelly and playing 14% of my BR because of how egregiously off the current lines are based on my projected probabilities of the fight. You're free to do whatever you like including a big play on Rich. We'll certainly see come June 23rd.

[DeFactoCrippler]

My two previous blunders had little technical analysis (particularly the Brookins-Oliviera fight where I depended on more assumptions than I'd like for a LARGE play considering the lack of Brookins BJJ footage). I scale my bets accordingly (1U Miller -3.5 @+165, 4U Korean Zombie @+281, 3U Brookins @+170, and 7.25U on Wanderlei @+150).

The fact you don't seem to understand is that bringing up that you correctly analysed the KZ fight is a logical fallacy because it has no bearing on the facts surrounding this fight.

It's just funny that you mention it considering your videos are 1-2 when it comes to picks with two horrible flops, but yet even using your own flawed logic that has no bearing on your "insight". I see.

You are basically saying "I have never fought and only read stuff from Sherdog but trust me Wand chin is fine because I picked KZ".

You are basically saying "Cung lost round one even though everyone in the world disagrees, because I picked KZ".

Your entire video was 22 minutes of bullshit (just like the other ones) because it basically boils down to "Wand's chin is fine, trust me." nice job, bro.

[fosho14]

If you think tape is the magical answer then please watch this one

I've noticed that you've brought this up many times in the past and now reinforced it again with the above video clip. So to respond I would just like to respectfully and civilly ask you a serious question:

With regards to the sentiments you have expressed many times about the importance of training aspects of mma yourself in order for people to have credibility as to whether or not they know what their talking about.

So does that mean, that 95% of the people that post on here that have not trained striking or grappling or both have no idea what they're talking about. Does that mean that countless successful cappers are profitable purely because of luck and not from watching tape and doing research/analysis on the basis that they don't train and therefore they would never be able to truly grasp what is happening or be able to accurately evaluate fights? I'm honestly just curious if this is what you actually believe, because you repeatedly keep bringing it up. Also if this is true then I guess everyone on here who doesn't train (which is the vast majority) except you are wasting their time doing this. Hmmmm . I politely disagree.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I've noticed that you've brought this up many times in the past and now reinforced it again with the above video clip. So to respond I would just like to respectfully and civilly ask you a serious question:

With regards to the sentiments you have expressed many times about the importance of training aspects of mma yourself in order for people to have credibility as to whether or not they know what their talking about.

So does that mean, that 95% of the people that post on here that have not trained striking or grappling or both have no idea what they're talking about. Does that mean that countless successful cappers are profitable purely because of luck and not from watching tape, doing research/analysis on the basis that they don't train and therefore they would never be able to truly grasp what is happening or be able to accurately evaluate fights? I'm honestly just curious if this is what you actually believe, because you repeatedly keep bringing it up. Also if this is true then I guess everyone on here who doesn't train (which is the vast majority) except you are wasting their time doing this. Hmmmm . I politely disagree.

I politely don't give a shit if you disagree. I asked you never to speak to me again. Do you remember the last time we spoke? I'm still waiting for people to tell me I'm wrong about you, but they never did.

If you haven't noticed, I have very little respect for you. The fact that you would even address me after our last encounter is mind boggling. Go away.

[illmatick]

Ill, didnt realize you were the guy who does SBR breakdowns. Much respect dude. Always on point.

Thanks bud

I'll probably have a few breakdowns for UFC 148 up by tomorrow.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

The fact you don't seem to understand is that bringing up that you correctly analysed the KZ fight is a logical fallacy because it has no bearing on the facts surrounding this fight.

It's just funny that you mention it considering your videos are 1-2 when it comes to picks with two horrible flops, but yet even using your own flawed logic that has no bearing on your "insight". I see.
You are basically saying "I have never fought and only read stuff from Sherdog but trust me Wand chin is fine because I picked KZ".

You are basically saying "Cung lost round one even though everyone in the world disagrees, because I picked KZ".

Your entire video was 22 minutes of bullshit (just like the other ones) because it basically boils down to "Wand's chin is fine, trust me." nice job, bro.

Seriously, you latch onto one concept and then perpetuate it and say it's a logical fallacy.

Why did I mention KZ? Because YOU brought up that this video is lacking substance like my other flops. I pointed out the difference between my superior confidence in fights which allows me to dissect them for 20 minutes versus a quick 2-3 minute blurb on a lean. That's a big difference that I'm sure others can readily acknowledge.

Wand's chin is fine because I picked KZ? Did you even watch my videos & fight footage before spending so much time arguing my points? I said Wand's chin is fine because of the resiliency he has shown in the Franklin, Bisping and Le fights with significant rotational force on his neck by a Cung right hook in round two that didn't affect Wanderlei's proprioceptive instincts. That's fukking why. Evidenced-based capping not myth-based gambling.

Cung lost round one yet the whole world disagrees? I guess you can say the whole world minus 5Dimes since Le went from a -200 favourite to a +200 dog in the span of one round he "clearly" won. I don't give a shit how most people scored round one in San Jose, CA. I specifically said that I was transposing the judging to Brazil where the crowd would be going crazy as Wanderlei nearly finished Cung at the end of round one. Nor did I say that Wanderlei had a superior body of work in round one but it rarely is for the guy who seizes the opportunity to take control of the fight in the waning moments of the round. For better or worse, that's how MMA fights are most often scored.

[fosho14]

I politely don't give a shit if you disagree. I asked you never to speak to me again. Do you remember the last time we spoke? I'm still waiting for people to tell me I'm wrong about you, but they never did.

If you haven't noticed, I have very little respect for you. The fact that you would even address me after our last encounter is mind boggling. Go away.

Trust me, I feel the same about you and am also still waiting to hear anyone dispel things I've brought up about your character lol. That's besides the point though. Obviously others would like to hear your response to my previous question because it addresses everyone on here and is relevant. Thought you would have at least had a bit of awareness to gather that much. It is a legitimate question because it involves the vast majority of ppl on this board. And no I'm not going anywhere. Too bad if you can't handle being questioned about the first non-troll post that you have published on this forum.

previous statement, address it don't cower from it:

So does that mean, that 95% of the people that post on here that have not trained striking or grappling or both have no idea what they're talking about. Does that mean that countless successful cappers are profitable purely because of luck and not from watching tape and doing research/analysis on the basis that they don't train and therefore they would never be able to truly grasp what is happening or be able to accurately evaluate fights? I'm honestly just curious if this is what you actually believe, because you repeatedly keep bringing it up. Also if this is true then I guess everyone on here who doesn't train (which is the vast majority) except you are wasting their time doing this.

your making yourself look like a fool more and more and more...

[DeFactoCrippler]

Trust me, I feel the same about you and am also still waiting to hear anyone dispel things I've brought up about your character lol. That's besides the point though. Obviously others would like to hear your response to my previous question because it addresses everyone on here and is relevant. Thought you would have at least had a bit of awareness to gather that much. It is a legitimate question because it involves the vast majority of ppl on this board. And no I'm not going anywhere. Too bad if you can't handle being questioned about the first non-troll serious post that you have brought up on this forum.

previous statement, address it don't cower from it:

So does that mean, that 95% of the people that post on here that have not trained striking or grappling or both have no idea what they're talking about. Does that mean that countless successful cappers are profitable purely because of luck and not from watching tape and doing research/analysis on the basis that they don't train and therefore they would never be able to truly grasp what is happening or be able to accurately evaluate fights? I'm honestly just curious if this is what you actually believe, because you repeatedly keep bringing it up. Also if this is true then I guess everyone on here who doesn't train (which is the vast majority) except you are wasting their time doing this.

your making yourself look like a fool more and more and more...

If someone else want to ask the same questions I would be glad to answer them. Go away.

[fosho14]

If someone else want to ask the same questions I would be glad to answer them. Go away.

LOL classic

[DeFactoCrippler]

Seriously, you latch onto one concept and then perpetuate it and say it's a logical fallacy.

Why did I mention KZ? Because YOU brought up that this video is lacking substance like my other flops. I pointed out the difference between my superior confidence in fights which allows me to dissect them for 20 minutes versus a quick 2-3 minute blurb on a lean. That's a big difference that I'm sure others can readily acknowledge.

1. you obviously don't understand the flaws in your own logic.

2. you are a pathetic liar. I never said anything about you videos or your previous capping wins/losses. All my posts are on the page, which really makes the your audacity (or ignorance) shocking. I quoted all my posts prior to YOU bringing up KZ. Don't ever put words in my mouth again.

I'm not trying to start a flame war over this but I feel Cung was clearly winning. I don't even understand how anyone could think otherwise. You think they would give Wandy a 20-18 round for that, wtf, when you you ever seen an MMA round scored 20-18 because of a knockdown? (although it probably should be)


I like your ability to break down fights but I feel some of what is going on here is that you are trying to "sell" your pick. I don't think you are be even-handed in the areas of Wandys chin and cardio. But rather acting as if you have a "side" in a debate and bringing whatever you need to support you argument.


I could be wrong but I just get the feeling you try to poke holes in whatever counter argument comes up. You yourself aren't saying wandy is a lock or should be like -300, so obviously there are going to be serious question marks surrounding Wandy, so why pretend like they don't exist or severely downplay them?

Oh don't worry, I will shit all over ANYONE here if they fock around.






yeah, my bad, I meant to say what MMA judge would score the 2nd round 10-8 if Cung had survived. Believe me, I think rounds like that should be scored 10-8, but they never are. Could you show me an example of when it was? Cause I can only think of times it isn't, 10-8 rounds are as rare as 10-10 rounds. I don't think I have ever seen one from "striking alone" only when they took top control early and the other fighter just lay there and got beat up bad.


It's actually a pet peeve of mine in regards to MMA scoring.

I agree Rich is a better matchup for him than Vitor, but "stylistic-ly" I don't agree Rich is a good matchup at all. He has reach and the footwork to avoid Wandy. He did it last time, Wandy could not get a single thing off he even went for a takedown in that first round. Only time wandy got off was in the second round when Rich got "adventurous".


That doesn't mean the same thing will happen this time, but it was a clash of "styles" in which Wandy's style defintely came out the loser. he was reduced to winging power punches just looking to get lucky and connect.






My negatives for Wandy


- chin shot, straihgt up brain damage. if a boxer took that many KO's everyone would be saying he should retire. This is not to mention all the "gym" ko's he has apparently suffered.
- inferior cardio
- inferior technical ability (every aspect)
- fight is 5 rounds


Positives for Wandy


- power
- fight is in brazil
- question marks surrounding rich

Just to add onto this, Wandy hasn't really been able to get ANYTHING off for a long time. And with age and brain injury your reflexes and speed only decrease.


- didn't get anything off vs rampage
- got little off against rich the first time, was stymied for the most part
- was unable to really hurt bisping, best flurry came at the end of the fight (bisping footwork and reach similar to rich)
- got ktfo by leben
- got NOTHING off on Cung until he gassed

Thats a good call on Maynard/Edgar, but you still have to factor in that it did happen at the end of the round. If a BJJ specialist gets the mount or locks up a sub in the dying seconds of the round it is definitely safe to assume they would end the fight, but you can't give them the round because of it.


Whereas Maynard clearly beat the shit out of Edgar for the entire round with what appeared to be numerous knockdowns. It's hard to score it in MMA cause in boxing the ref counts for a knockdown, and Frankie was just getting hit and flopping around. Point is, that was rare, and is one of the few fights in which a 10-8 round occured (imo could be wrong though).

I tend to agree here. For me, I would definitely wait until the weigh ins before placing a bet.

1. Can you agree that when you say Wandy won round 1 against Cung, it's like saying you had bradley beating pac? It does not mean you are wrong, but it does mean you disagree with everyone here and mma sites ect. I would love to see the scorecards, I just took it for granted that Cung won round 1. Round 2 wasn't scored so that is a matter of opinion.


2. In regards to Wand's chin there are some very important things we gotta think about.


- Your chin doesn't improve. So if Wand's chin looked shot in previous fights, it's shot.


- There is no legitimate reason to believe that Wand will have improved since his last fight. Your reflexes don't get better with age, let alone brain injuries, this is fact.


- Even in the Cung fight, that was about the only clean head shot he took. Most of Cung's offense came from kicks to the body. So, Wanderlei got "dropped" (or "wobbled") by the only head shot he took, not to mention getting brutally kayoed in 4 of his last 9 nine fights, not to mention all the gym kayos he was rumored to have, and you are saying there is no problem with his chin? We just need to watch the tape closely?

dude, I'm watching his fights now 9cause soccer is boring as fock) and Rogan was talking about his Vale Tudo days and fighting bare knuckle in brazil. God knows how many times he's been kayoed.


Like you I would have Franklin as a big fave if the fight was in Vegas, but it being in Brazil is a huge advantage for Wand, imo.

[DeFactoCrippler]

LOL classic

No what was classic you little phaget was saying Vaughany HURTS this forum while you go around telling people not to make +EV plays. You are one of the biggest squares on this forum, thats why nobody defends you.