TUF 15 episode 4 and Bellator 63 odds !

**PunisherIND** · 03-28-12, 02:07 PM

baker and saunders parlay.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-28-12, 02:07 PM

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 02:16 PM

Jury and Saunders will get action

**Grabaka** · 03-28-12, 02:37 PM

What about Pereira? No value there?

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 02:51 PM

I'm very surprised Rickels is a dog

**Grabaka** · 03-28-12, 02:54 PM

ME too but maybe not in the greatest way. I wanted Jordan as a dog!
Are you laying it on Rickels?

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 02:59 PM

I was expecting these lines but in reverse! Maybe I underestimated Smith in this matchup but Rickels is much more proven (Won all three of his Bellator fights by submission). Smith has a win over an over the hill Karo but I would never lay any juice on a late replacement newcomer like Smith.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-28-12, 03:21 PM

Jordan has faced tougher competition, fought at middle and light-heavy. He is a late replacement however and may be a bit chinny.

Rickels is all offense, his striking defense and TDD are awful, and he claims to have cardio issues.

Line looks right to me.

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 03:22 PM

I wouldnt say Rickelts is more proven...the guys he beat in Bellator are no better than likes of Parisyan, Gustavo Machado, Rossborough (205er), Bristol Marunde (185er). Training with likes of Dos Anjos, Diego Nunes, Machida, Mayhem, Satoshi Ishii, Kenny Johnson, COrdeiro, Eduardo Rocha, Roger Gracie, etc... at Blackhouse probably helped make him the favourite

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 03:25 PM

Looking at fights of Smith and Rickels, Rickels comes across as the much more explosive, dangerous fighter. Smith will have a wrestling advantage, but Rickels has a proven guard, and has quicker hands. I also, think he is the stronger, more powerful guy.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-28-12, 03:27 PM

Losing to B- competition is probably better for development than beating a bunch of Ds.

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 03:29 PM

Who has Smith faced that is a B- caliber fighter? I would say Rickels and Smith have faced a similar level of competition. I think Rickels has looked more impressive against this level of competition.

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 03:29 PM

Agreed!

**NunyaBidness** · 03-28-12, 03:29 PM

Also has one professional boxing match (won by TKO) at Heavyweight.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-28-12, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Who has Smith faced that is a B- caliber fighter? I would say Rickels and Smith have faced a similar level of competition. I think Rickels has looked more impressive against this level of competition.

I would say Brad Tavares is B+.

Burkman, Machado, and Hale all B-.

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 03:36 PM

Fair enough, forgot about Brad Tavares on TUF. I'm not so sure how much getting KTFO by such a superior fighter really helps your development

**NunyaBidness** · 03-28-12, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Fair enough, forgot about Brad Tavares on TUF. I'm not so sure how much getting KTFO by such a superior fighter really helps your development

The act itself doesn't, especially in a short fight like that, but suffering adversity and forcing yourself to come out of it and put together wins is probably better than crushing cans. Just my opinion, I have no evidence.

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 03:41 PM

What does everyone think about the TUF fight? Is Jury worth a stab?

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Who has Smith faced that is a B- caliber fighter? I would say Rickels and Smith have faced a similar level of competition. I think Rickels has looked more impressive against this level of competition.

A split-decision against 1-2 Aaron Fondry, triangle win against 8-4 Dylan SMith, triangle win against 1-4 Richard Bouphanouvang, decision win against 4-4 Kody Frank (who happens to be aformentioned Bouphanouvang's only win), and triangle win against 17-10 Levi Avera. All of these guys have fought on small promotions apart from their one Bellator appearance where they lost to Rickels.

Meanwhile, Jordan Smith beat 8-5 Josh McDonald who has fought and won in Strikeforce and WEC before, as we all know beat Karo who is former UFC fighter (19-8), lost a close split-decision against UFC vet and solid wrestler Burkman, beaten legit middlewieghts and LHW;s in Machado, Bristol Marunde and Rossborough, drew with Hale.

Not necessarily B- fighters but certainly fighters that have fought tougher competition and been on bigger stages

**Grabaka** · 03-28-12, 03:43 PM

200 on Pereira @ +215

**NunyaBidness** · 03-28-12, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

What does everyone think about the TUF fight? Is Jury worth a stab?

I minimaxed it.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-28-12, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

200 on Pereira @ +215

I expect that line to improve.

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

What does everyone think about the TUF fight? Is Jury worth a stab?

Maxed it at -185 in a double with Not Diaz inside. I only see line getting worse and reaching -200. I thing he can repeat Pat Audinwood's performance

Jury at -230 now on 5dimes/sportbet

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I expect that line to improve.

Amaya surely only get better

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

The act itself doesn't, especially in a short fight like that, but suffering adversity and forcing yourself to come out of it and put together wins is probably better than crushing cans. Just my opinion, I have no evidence.

I'm sure it does, but there is a skill level "ceiling" that each fighter possesses that is based on physical limitations. A hard working, dedicated, completely focused fighter from an excellent camp may never be able to best a lazy fighter with legitimate raw talent based solely on the fact that the former fighter is not as athletically gifted or as coordinated as the latter fighter (not exactly saying this is he case for Smith or Rickels, just theoretical). Smith has never come across to me as a physically gifted or technically gifted fighter. Just a decent fighter will a common skillset. Rickels is not perfect (his TDD is lacking), but he the stronger, more powerful fighter with a much more dangerous skillset (his quick hands, his dangerous guard) in my opinion.

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 03:52 PM

I'm really hoping Bookmaker will offer Saunders ITD. They usually don't offer that prop (just Fighter A wins by KO or Fighter A wins by sub) I can see him TKOing Amaya with his long reach and superior MT, or I can see him GnPing Amaya from mount for a TKO victory. But I can also easily see him win by submission.

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

A split-decision against 1-2 Aaron Fondry, triangle win against 8-4 Dylan SMith, triangle win against 1-4 Richard Bouphanouvang, decision win against 4-4 Kody Frank (who happens to be aformentioned Bouphanouvang's only win), and triangle win against 17-10 Levi Avera. All of these guys have fought on small promotions apart from their one Bellator appearance where they lost to Rickels.

Meanwhile, Jordan Smith beat 8-5 Josh McDonald who has fought and won in Strikeforce and WEC before, as we all know beat Karo who is former UFC fighter (19-8), lost a close split-decision against UFC vet and solid wrestler Burkman, beaten legit middlewieghts and LHW;s in Machado, Bristol Marunde and Rossborough, drew with Hale.

Not necessarily B- fighters but certainly fighters that have fought tougher competition and been on bigger stages

I'm not sure Jordan Smith fighting marginally better competition is a major factor. I'm sure if Rickels fought those mentioned fighters he would give them an equal amount of trouble.

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 03:59 PM

Rickels line improving

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I'm not sure Jordan Smith fighting marginally better competition is a major factor. I'm sure if Rickels fought those mentioned fighters he would give them an equal amount of trouble.

Maybe so, but for somebody setting the line like Kalikas he can only base it on what has actually happened. I'm not disputing whether or not Rickels can win this, after all Jordan Smith is no world-beater, jus giving reasoning for why he's the favourite

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I'm really hoping Bookmaker will offer Saunders ITD. They usually don't offer that prop (just Fighter A wins by KO or Fighter A wins by sub) I can see him TKOing Amaya with his long reach and superior MT, or I can see him GnPing Amaya from mount for a TKO victory. But I can also easily see him win by submission.

Can TKO anybody with his knees at any moment as well

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Can TKO anybody with his knees at any moment as well

Sure, but it's safe to say he has a much better chance of finishing Amaya with knees than his last few opponents. Amaya is short and stocky, not very explosive and not very technical. He has fought cans only his MMA career. I see Saunders murdering him with his reach.

**Grabaka** · 03-28-12, 04:09 PM

82.5 on Smith @ -165
34 on Smith @ -170

**Vaughany** · 03-28-12, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Sure, but it's safe to say he has a much better chance of finishing Amaya with knees than his last few opponents. Amaya is short and stocky, not very explosive and not very technical. He has fought cans only his MMA career. I see Saunders murdering him with his reach.

yeah that's what I was saying, my bad I didnt see that u said "long reach and superior MT"

**Vitooch** · 03-28-12, 04:29 PM

I hate bookmaker right now for not offering parlays. Jury -170/Saunders -295 would have been money