UFC on FX 3

**gabe** · 05-28-12, 02:14 AM

Originally posted by eligibletackle

think line is well set for Mouse/McCall - it's too easy for Johnson to win 2 rounds as seen before.

Interested in lines on all others. Hope Pague's title of "generic TUF Scrub" doesn't inflate Papazian's line too much, Pauge aint bad but Papazian is a beast.

my thoughts exactly.

**gabe** · 05-28-12, 02:25 AM

Originally posted by fosho14

Totally agree that is the most likely outcome. But wasn't the most likely outcome of the Barboza fight just a day ago projected to be Edson handily picking apart Varner on the feet to eventually score the KO or at least pick up a decision? What happens if Brenneman puts Silva on his back for 3 rounds and grapple fitch's him until the final bell dings. It ain't pretty but is very possible. If he can do it to story he can probably do it to silva if he constantly shoots and avoids the striking exchanges. Personally I feel like it's too early to be riding high on fighters like erick silva before they have faced wrestlers who can put them on their backs and test their cardio and will. He very well could be the next bright prospect but I just feel like wins over the likes of a zero in Luis Ramos and carlo prater (who looked awful against TJ Grant) are nothing to get excited about or feel too confident about. This is his first real test.

I think from footage I saw from studying him a while ago, I recall him having really good TDD... but that might not mean a thing against a wrestler like Charlie B. Silva's got confidence in his fists, though, and Charlie gets wobbly. Silva ITD or by KO hedged with Brenneman by Decision are the plays.

**fosho14** · 05-28-12, 03:27 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I think from footage I saw from studying him a while ago, I recall him having really good TDD... but that might not mean a thing against a wrestler like Charlie B. Silva's got confidence in his fists, though, and Charlie gets wobbly. Silva ITD or by KO hedged with Brenneman by Decision are the plays.

Ya that hedge is def the safest and probably smartest thing to do for low risk low return. I might be greedy and risky though and just go with small action on silva ITD and pass on the hedged Brennman insurance. Basically just gonna hope that the low probability situation I described above doesn't happen.

**Crassus** · 05-28-12, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

i played creepy at +130 (missed the +160 opener on 5d). i capped him as a slight favorite so i'll gladly take the dog odds.

Grabbed creepy a while ago at +140, great bet in my opinion.

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 05-28-12, 09:02 AM

Looks like the prop odds on Silva/Brenneman drastically changed within an hour of me posting that. GL to anyone else that jumped on that before the two lines got smashed down.

**Crassus** · 05-28-12, 10:10 AM

is McCal within the distance (+966) a half decent bet? If he hadn't showboated he definitely would have...

EDIT:

Also

**Grabaka** · 05-28-12, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by Crassus

Grabbed creepy a while ago at +140, great bet in my opinion.

Me 2.

**gabe** · 06-03-12, 06:26 PM

Eddie Wineland +160
Scott Jorgensen -210

**Imsmarterthanu** · 06-03-12, 06:39 PM

mighty mouse by decision all day

**The HOFF** · 06-03-12, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

You also have a third Papazian backer here. We should keep a tally.

Four.

**fosho14** · 06-04-12, 01:37 AM

five

**gabe** · 06-04-12, 02:42 AM

I wanna watch Easton vs Papazian again, but can't find it anywhere online! Link, anyone?

**helpplease** · 06-04-12, 03:52 AM

lol ye I have that fight saved .. I`ll upload it somewhere for ya if u want and when rewatching it Papazian was not nearly as impressive as I first thought .. he was very passive and gun shy to just let his hands fly lol kinda reminds me of a eddie wineland .

I have Dustin Pague winning this one by decision .

**helpplease** · 06-04-12, 03:59 AM

best bet on this card is Dustin Pague .. would be a bonus to get him as an underdog !

Dustin Pague and over 2.5 round bet(small play ) , Jake Hecht straight up(LARGE play) .. Henry Martinez(Small-Medium Play) and eddie wineland vs scotty jorgenson above 2.5 rounds ( LARGE PLAY )

and lastly carlos eduardo Rocha is a good bet too if u can get him at +150 or better .. Put a small play on this

**Oblivian** · 06-04-12, 08:26 AM

I like Mighty Mouse here. He was winning the majority of the fight vs. McCall. He was even winning the beginning of the third. McCall came on very strong, but Mighty Mouse still looked solid throughout most of the fight. It's just tough to bank on McCall rallying like that again or winning the majority of the fight.

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by helpplease

best bet on this card is Dustin Pague .. would be a bonus to get him as an underdog !

Dustin Pague and over 2.5 round bet(small play ) , Jake Hecht straight up(LARGE play) .. Henry Martinez(Small-Medium Play) and eddie wineland vs scotty jorgenson above 2.5 rounds ( LARGE PLAY )

and lastly carlos eduardo Rocha is a good bet too if u can get him at +150 or better .. Put a small play on this

You'll most definitely get Pague as underdog...he'll probably be +200 range

**BIGDAY** · 06-04-12, 09:26 AM

Gabe, we are due for a Super Lock.

I can sense you are going to POUND this card and make it your BIOTCH!!

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 09:30 AM

Papazian will be the locks of all locks! Especially now that he's being mentored by the greatest Armenian to have ever lived in Kenny Florian! Me and Gabe are gonna go in to business together and open a baklava restaurant together in Glendale after we cash this bad boii!

**gabe** · 06-04-12, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Gabe, we are due for a Super Lock.

I can sense you are going to POUND this card and make it your BIOTCH!!

Max Holloway was a "super lock" last week. Just don't really use words like that anymore.

**gabe** · 06-04-12, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Papazian will be the locks of all locks! Especially now that he's being mentored by the greatest Armenian to have ever lived in Kenny Florian! Me and Gabe are gonna go in to business together and open a baklava restaurant together in Glendale after we cash this bad boii!

Florian is mentoring the Papaz?

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Florian is mentoring the Papaz?

yee buddy...Ken Flo has moved out to LA and wants to open up or take over a gym there. He's been helping Papazian prepare for this one so expect to hear Florian reppin Pap a lot on Friday night and probably being slightly bias in his analysis!

He mentions Papazian towards end of this interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEjHPTBovbs

**gabe** · 06-04-12, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

yee buddy...Ken Flo has moved out to LA and wants to open up or take over a gym there. He's been helping Papazian prepare for this one so expect to hear Florian reppin Pap a lot on Friday night and probably being slightly bias in his analysis!

He mentions Papazian towards end of this interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEjHPTBovbs

I've been thinking about checking out the Jitz school Papaz goes to.

**Crassus** · 06-04-12, 10:16 AM

Kenny would move out to LA the summer before I was gonna go to Florian MMA...

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I've been thinking about checking out the Jitz school Papaz goes to.

yeah Gracie Barra, u should..if I had all these quality gyms near me Id be there all the time!

**gabe** · 06-04-12, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

yeah Gracie Barra, u should..if I had all these quality gyms near me Id be there all the time!

That's Gracie Barra Burbank... there is a Gracie Barra here in Hollywood, too, I wonder how it is over there?

Also, there's 10th Planet... Hard to decide...

**gabe** · 06-04-12, 10:30 AM

V-- Papazian and Martinez is my monster parlay too buddy!! YEAH!!!! My top 2 picks... Jorgensen is my third, but for some reason I feel like an upset could happen there... but realistically, no way Jorg loses.

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by gabe

That's Gracie Barra Burbank... there is a Gracie Barra here in Hollywood, too, I wonder how it is over there?

Also, there's 10th Planet... Hard to decide...

yeah, not short of options at least!

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by gabe

V-- Papazian and Martinez is my monster parlay too buddy!! YEAH!!!! My top 2 picks... Jorgensen is my third, but for some reason I feel like an upset could happen there... but realistically, no way Jorg loses.

Yeah initially I really liked Jorgensen as well...he is clearly the better grappler and is just as tough as Wineland. I've always really like Wineland's striking tho, and I do worry tht Jorgensen has got caught up in striking battles before. If he's smart tho he'll try and put Wineland on his back for most of fight were he will offer no offence or danger.

Papazian and Martinez kind of seem like those kind of fights that are too good to be true! Like too easy to call tht I must be missing something. Had tht feeling about Hardy and Holloway as well and made the mistake of hesitating and only betting small on those (although tht hesitancy to go big on them was partly because of the bad night I had last month when during Miller/Diaz event). Now tht I've made up for the loss on tht event I can take bigger chances for this event and the next UFC on FX in a couple weeks where ther are a few plays I intend on going big on

**gabe** · 06-04-12, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah initially I really liked Jorgensen as well...he is clearly the better grappler and is just as tough as Wineland. I've always really like Wineland's striking tho, and I do worry tht Jorgensen has got caught up in striking battles before. If he's smart tho he'll try and put Wineland on his back for most of fight were he will offer no offence or danger.

Papazian and Martinez kind of seem like those kind of fights that are too good to be true! Like too easy to call tht I must be missing something. Had tht feeling about Hardy and Holloway as well and made the mistake of hesitating and only betting small on those (although tht hesitancy to go big on them was partly because of the bad night I had last month when during Miller/Diaz event). Now tht I've made up for the loss on tht event I can take bigger chances for this event and the next UFC on FX in a couple weeks where ther are a few plays I intend on going big on

Matt Brown + Brian Ebersole + Sam Stout parlay?

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Matt Brown + Brian Ebersole + Sam Stout parlay?

Seems solid. I've already got Stout in a parlay, not sure if I'll add more on him.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 06-04-12, 10:48 AM

I'm sure you're all gonna get great odds on these picks since the whole world knows who you are planning to go big on before the lines are out!!

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

I'm sure you're all gonna get great odds on these picks since the whole world knows who you are planning to go big on before the lines are out!!

What if we are bluffing tho brother? Me and Gabriel may have conspired via private message so that we get better lines on their opponents

**MMAbetMASTA** · 06-04-12, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

What if we are bluffing tho brother? Me and Gabriel may have conspired via private message so that we get better lines on their opponents

ha perhaps, I saw some dude in another thread fading papazian hard which I couldn't believe was serious... but from what I know on these matches you all picked I'd find that hard to believe! I won't bitch anymore than my smug comment above and I'm over it, but you all know how I feel about this yet there's nothing I can do - it's a public forum for free chatting, so it is what it is...

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

ha perhaps, I saw some dude in another thread fading papazian hard which I couldn't believe was serious... but from what I know on these matches you all picked I'd find that hard to believe! I won't bitch anymore than my smug comment above and I'm over it, but you all know how I feel about this yet there's nothing I can do - it's a public forum for free chatting, so it is what it is...

ha yeah I wasn't sure about tht either!

End of the day, Gabe and I are just two chumps who like to gamble on two dudes fighting in a cage, and in this particular case we like Papazian and Martinez in their fights. We haven't offered any valuable insight in to why we think either might win, and moreover it's pretty obvious tht both are going to be chalky regardless of what we or anybody else says - just because of the fact that both their opponents did not look impressive at all in their previous fights whilst both Papazian and Martinez did very well in their previous fights where they weren't expected to do so well.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 06-04-12, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha yeah I wasn't sure about tht either!

End of the day, Gabe and I are just two chumps who like to gamble on two dudes fighting in a cage, and in this particular case we like Papazian and Martinez in their fights. We haven't offered any valuable insight in to why we think either might win, and moreover it's pretty obvious tht both are going to be chalky regardless of what we or anybody else says - just because of the fact that both their opponents did not look impressive at all in their previous fights whilst both Papazian and Martinez did very well in their previous fights where they weren't expected to do so well.

I hear you and good points yet I stilll disagree, however I'm not gonna argue with you or anyone else on this, as I've stated my case plenty on this matter and dragged it on enough in other threads.

And yes they'll def be chalky, unfortunately.