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I always give gabe credit where credit is due. He's made some great calls and I've personally congratulated him for it and he knows that. I guess my comment was referring to his post where he said "I went 9-1 for UFC on Fuel TV in Sweden, so beautiful" but don't remember seeing any picks for that 9-1 statistic that he was representing.
Sorry gabe I really don't want any beef
Last edited by fosho14; 05-10-12, 03:22 AM.Comment -
That's fair enough. But a lot of the time I will have strong lean and will play it then a few hours before the event the line will change so drastically that it is too good to pass up on arbing out. I'm not like some who seem to think they have some kind of ungodly power to predict fights perfectly...you'll never see me saying something is a lock. This sport is just way to unpredictable and there are too many dodgy judging decisions to be confident in a lot of fights. I think a lot of people think this is easier than it actually is, which is why people come and go...having threads saying they are here to make thousands...they have a couple good events then it all goes
up. So I'm always going to look for risk free profit if I can. I truly thought Palhares was going to win by submission and I still had that play. But just before fight time Belcher was still at +225 and +250 so I couldn't resist playing Belcher at those odds and Palhares at -175 which he'd come down to on Pinnacle. I also post these arbs before the outcome of the fight...it might be last minute but it's always before. And in my record I post what I made without arbs and separately what I made including arbs. Also, I didn't start the thread to be one of these guys who are desperate for attention and who wants people to tail my plays...you're not gonna see me say "this is a lock, tail me suckas" like Gabe and others do. When I started my thread I did it for the soul purpose of getting feedback on my plays from likes of Illmatick, Eccocide, Brooks, and Chairib, and then to show how money can be made without having to be some genius who has a 80% pick rate.
But nonetheless, I understand yours and Gabe's argument completely that it can be messy and confusing. I intend on having some big straight up plays for the next event anyway, so from there I will just show the plays that I intend on not arbing out of.Comment -
Thanks that would be greatly appreciated
And it's not that what you post is confusing but more the fact that the information you post in your personal thread is not feasible or practical to others due to the reasons I mentioned earlier and which you further enforced yourself just now -(switching bets minutes before events are starting, etc).
Much respect for continually staying positive though bro, just wasn't sure what use it was being documented on a public forum.Last edited by fosho14; 05-10-12, 03:28 AM.Comment -
That is exactly right and i find crazy that now people attack you. Nobody and not even the fighters usually know who IS gonna win. But by knowing the right or wrong price or hitting the soft spots you will come out on top.That's fair enough. But a lot of the time I will have strong lean and will play it then a few hours before the event the line will change so drastically that it is too good to pass up on arbing out. I'm not like some who seem to think they have some kind of ungodly power to predict fights perfectly...you'll never see me saying something is a lock. This sport is just way to unpredictable and there are too many dodgy judging decisions to be confident in a lot of fights. I think a lot of people think this is easier than it actually is, which is why people come and go...having threads saying they are here to make thousands...they have a couple good events then it all goes up. So I'm always going to look for risk free profit if I can. I truly thought Palhares was going to win by submission and I still had that play. But just before fight time Belcher was still at +225 and +250 so I couldn't resist playing Belcher at those odds and Palhares at -175 which he'd come down to on Pinnacle. I also post these arbs before the outcome of the fight...it might be last minute but it's always before. And in my record I post what I made without arbs and separately what I made including arbs. Also, I didn't start the thread to be one of these guys who are desperate for attention and who wants people to tail my plays...you're not gonna see me say "this is a lock, tail me suckas" like Gabe and others do. When I started my thread I did it for the soul purpose of getting feedback on my plays from likes of Illmatick, Eccocide, Brooks, and Chairib, and then to show how money can be made without having to be some genius who has a 80% pick rate.
But nonetheless, I understand yours and Gabe's argument completely that it can be messy and confusing. I intend on having some big straight up plays for the next event anyway, so from there I will just show the plays that I intend on not arbing out of.
I personally listen a lot of vaughany and i have 8 sportbook accounts so if i grabbed an aweesome price in the openers via tailing or making my own pick i dont need Vaughany to arb out. I just need bestfightodds.
I think its even disrespectful to come up with this shit. If you dont know how to arb dont tail vaughany. And please stop being so cocky with your picks. "This guy is gonna win no matter what price it is" route will take to ruin.
Im way more ballsy than vaughany but i accept my variance and move on. Learn to bet people.Comment -
Dont even listen to this shit V. And please dont stop giving your plays no matter if you plan to arb because every bit of info is great to cap a fight. Theres people who appreciate AND KNOW HOW TO READ YOUR POSTS. ThanksComment -
It's not that I don't understand what he's doing...I know exactly what he's doing. Please re-read my post. Agree to disagree I guess...Comment -
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Im sorry if i sounded like a jerk and i thought you would but lets not get into this with Gabe.
For anyone who wants fame and fortune just post your plays otherwise theres plenty boards for posting picks. At first i thought people were very rude in this board but after blades, jesuseatnums and all of the wackos i understand why they burn you at the first bad attempt.
Thats why you dont see me claiming fame, im here to learn what i can, maximize profits, different point of viws and the fun factor.Comment -
Vaugny seems like a pretty chill guy. I thought he was going to piss all over the fosho clown.Comment -
those picks could be found in v's thread. i had said that i would quit posting picks for a while, so that card i was just giving my thoughts in v's thread. apparently, you were aware of it, which is why you pm'd me to congratulate me for being the only one to predict both siyar and siver.Comment -
Many times I have been very confident that a fighter would win. The only fighter I was that confident in that lost was Rumble Johnson against Vitor, and my confidence went completely out the window on the day of the weigh-ins, so I can't count that.
I really liked Lavar's chances against Pat Barry, too. Although I wouldn't have called it a lock. I thought he would very likely knock Barry out, but if he couldn't, he'd surely do enough damage to take a decision. I felt Barry's only way was to get a submission and I didn't think his first submission win would be against this dude... Some fights, like Barao vs Jorgensen, Siver vs Nunes, Lavar vs Mexicutioner, Story vs Alves, Seth B vs Matt Brown, etc., I just really see'em going one way.Comment -
Im gonna repeat myself. "And please stop being so cocky with your picks. "This guy is gonna win no matter what price it is" route will take to ruin."
None of those were locks. How much confidence? any %?
You never know with the way you post. We dont know your betting amounts or units, what price would you give to the event itself. What good use can we give to that?Comment -
What a bunch of bullshit. If a bunch of idiots blindly tail anybody I hope they lose.
Who gives a **** about a bunch of losers looking to get some free winnerz.
As I've said a million times, give a man a fish he can eat for a day, teach him how to fish he eats for a lifetime. You should be thanking V that he lets you eat from his ricebowl for free.Comment -
Oh, and BTW, thanks V for posting your picks. I've often times see props you've grabbed that I've overlooked.Comment -
I wasn't talking about blindly tailing, who said anything about blindly tailing? Why would anyone blindly tail anything? What the hell are you talking about? I was talking about posting thoughts on plays with value so people can take those into consideration when making their own plays without the added "I'm gonna arb 5 seconds before the event starts" bs making each thought he posts useless for someone who is actually looking for value with a winner. You'd have to be monitoring V's threads like every waking second of the day and especially during the event for it to actually be useful and even then based on the reasons I posted earlier it's still very unclear whether that would actually help anyone other than himself. No one has intelligently refuted or addressed my main points in my main post, although ironically it was V himself who at least grasped what I was saying a lil bit and I respected and understood what he was saying, so I'll just stop here. Please read my post in it's entirety and then try to process in your brains what was stated, and mentally put that into effect. Then if you feel like responding or commenting on those points, relevantly and in context than go ahead. Spewing out tired idioms and proverbs does not make you sound smart right now Nunya. As usual your trying to sound wise but it's making you sound like an ignorant tool who doesn't know how to read or interpret what's been said, effectively ignoring and avoiding all my points that I made.Last edited by fosho14; 05-10-12, 02:24 PM.Comment -
This isn't elementary school NunyaBidness. Insulting someone is not a valid rebuttal.Comment -
Who cares if he arbs out? All you do is keep your bet. You still are crushing the market. Sack up and deal with the variance.Comment -
Fosho. This has been addressed numerous times.
Vaughany is so consistant that with the amount that he bets, the price that he says the fight should be capped and his analysis that you can deduce how good of a bet it is (in his mind and tail accordingly). I can only go after good bets as we dont know who is gonna win and i dont get sad when i make a losing bet as long as its a good bet. Making a bad bet does make me sad (less sad if the bet wins but like when you dodge a car crash you dont feel happy you just dont want it to happen again). IF you tail Vaughany i suggest you watch the lines the day of the event and check for yourself if you want to arb the plays you can or risk it playing the soft spots. If you tailed blindly, a) arb the **** out and accept profit happily or b) dont mess with the hand that feeds you.
Nothing wrong on tailing blindly if you know from who and how.
Its awful that come up with this. A detailed analysis + a betting spreadsheet ala vaughany is the most honest and easy to read approach. Otherwise you will end up tailing something that look more of a sure thing than it actually is. Like "El cucuy is el cucuy so forgedabutis".
Im not sure if i make sense so i need help here but come on brah, i love you but you are wrong.Comment -
I know, I hate V. I don't understand why he doesn't open an account for me and bet for me. This is insane. I have to cap my own fights and do research. He should just do the breakdowns/betting for me, BUT I should do the celebrating.Comment -
Last edited by NunyaBidness; 05-10-12, 04:11 PM. Reason: wrote something shitty, decided to be nice.Comment -
I didn't read your points. Sorry if you don't like idioms. I think if something can be said quickly, rather than in dull 5 inch long paragraphs, it is better.
So, to explain what I meant in a way that you can understand:
When I say, "if you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, if you teach a man how to fish he eats for a lifetime," what I mean is that picking up a win here or there because someone on the forum is a +EV (+EV means positive expected value), isn't nearly as useful as learning how to beat MMA in general, or perhaps, sportsbetting overall, or even gambling altogether. Being spoonfed information isn't going to teach anyone how to get better at any of those things. And in this business, sharing ricebowls is not generally a good idea. Profit you make is inversely correlated with the profit that I make. Maybe you don't want to do the work, and that's fine. But if you were to look into what V and others are doing you would see how you can apply this knowledge into beating golf matchups, and nhl overtime totals. Part of the reason I don't post my plays is because a) I make so many plays per card a thread would be impossible to keep track of and b) I don't like to divulge the higher +EV plays I make that other people sometimes miss. I've already given too much of my ricebowl up for free on this forum, but from what I can tell PunisherIND seems to be the only one using it effectively. Hopefully you will enjoy this gigantic paragraph, and maybe now you'll think I'm smart.Comment -
V is not gonna tell you how it is because he is a gentleman as he has proved pronouncing bellator the proper way.
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Again...what are you talking about. I am not asking anyone to spoon feed anything. I am asking for information to be posted that is actually usable, and feasible. (Value plays) not that ppl will blindly follow, but which may be taking into account or factored into their own decison. When did I say that I didn't want to do the work or that I'd be blindly following anything lol? What the **** are you talking about? Do I need to explain what arbitrage is to you? You do realize that arbing is done best through being alerted by email/text msg don't you? You also realize that there are a variety of programs that can assist you with this making things much more effective and efficient compared to scrolling through a random persons thread on a board and timing things that way right? If ppl's objective is to arb then why would they go to V's thread trying to mimic his arbs when everyone has a different book and it simply wouldn't be logical to do it this way. Your talking incoherently in gibberish and not making sense. Do you follow what I just said?Last edited by fosho14; 05-10-12, 07:02 PM.Comment -
These are some points from my original post that you need to re-read Nunya:
"If someone has successfully learned how to arb, they're going to arb on their own. There not going to 'tail' arbs, or whatever it is your recommending on your thread due to timing, discrepancy with books and many other elements."
"everyone's schedule is different and we all have different books with different juice not to mention the fact that these lines are always changing."
How about the glaring and obvious reality that it's not realistic. When he's switching bets 5 seconds before a fight or during the fight itself for miraculous units who the hell is sitting at their computer monitoring and copying that? I have to think that at least some of you like to watch this stuff with friends. This is supposed to be enjoyable as well, I can see BigDay has the right idea
This is great for V and not for others. He wanted to get feedback about the system, and the feedback is that he is doing a nice job consistently returning positive units for himself. He has acknowledged this, and I've made my points which have still not been proven false. I'm not trying to hate on V, I like the guy, just explaining the reality of the situation. Focus on this specific post that I wrote just now, where I have tried to simplify, dumb down and repeat myself in 5 different ways for you to understand Nunya. Please read it and try to the best of your ability to absorb what is being said and don't start rambling aimlessly not making sense and not responding accurately or on point and wasting more time. If you have no answer for it, then it ends here.Last edited by fosho14; 05-10-12, 07:04 PM.Comment -
The whole point is that it doesnt matter if you arb in the end or not. You still got a good bet meaning a bet that pays more than it should.
If V's postint aint helping you dont follow his thread but dont try to change what is not broken. How about get more books? you do your "thing" and make it work for you or dont use it. Thats why nunya says you are spoonfed and spoiled. Now he SHOULD change his posts so you understand and make billions.Comment
