Chris Camozzi vs Francis Carmont

[gabe]

Anybody know anything about this Carmont guy?

[TheCalculator]

He's beat cans. I watched his fights. Wasn't impressed. Hoping Camozzi is the underdog (or at least comes in close to EV).

[gabe]

His youtube highlights are kinda impressive, no?

[TheCalculator]

Everybody's highlight reels look ok (more or less). I watched entire fights and I wasn't impressed. I was impressed with Jacoby. The guy has killer instincts. If he attacks Tavares like he did with others -- I think he could take it. Def. hoping he comes in as the big underdog.

[NunyaBidness]

His youtube highlights are kinda impressive, no?

No doubt. All in.

Can't wait til this guy makes it to the UFC, his highlight video is amazing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWDJDB_2D_8

[Vaughany]

Nah all about this up-coming prospect guys...

[proposition joe]

Everybody's highlight reels look ok (more or less). I watched entire fights and I wasn't impressed. I was impressed with Jacoby. The guy has killer instincts. If he attacks Tavares like he did with others -- I think he could take it. Def. hoping he comes in as the big underdog.

I agree 100 %. No play here on the Camozzi fight. I'll probably small play Jacoby at + anything. Tavares' striking is a bit overrated.

[TheCalculator]

I think in general -- the best value is in the new guys that are coming in. Miocic was an example. I watched him fight and I didn't think Beltran had too much hope. Jacoby is that guy in this card. I think the bookies don't always know where their skills are yet -- and even less so for the general betting public.

[proposition joe]

I still think that the value was on Beltran in the Miocic fight, but that's a moot point. I am anxiously awaiting Stipe's next fight because there's a good chance I'll be fading him hard.

But I agree, for the most part. There are exceptions where the opposite is true though, but that's only when the debuting fighter has gained a lot of hype. I have a feeling that there will be a great example of this when UFC 138 rolls around, and I can't wait to bet against it. When there is less anticipation and hype around a debut, I think that what you said is pretty much the case.

[bjpenn85]

absolutely. I remember C.diabate was in the +400 range against cane. That is one of the sweetest bet in my betting history.

[gabe]

I still think that the value was on Beltran in the Miocic fight, but that's a moot point. I am anxiously awaiting Stipe's next fight because there's a good chance I'll be fading him hard.

But I agree, for the most part. There are exceptions where the opposite is true though, but that's only when the debuting fighter has gained a lot of hype. I have a feeling that there will be a great example of this when UFC 138 rolls around, and I can't wait to bet against it. When there is less anticipation and hype around a debut, I think that what you said is pretty much the case.

I guaranteed you guys that Miocic would win. That one was an easy call for me. Fading Stipe might be a big mistake on your part.

[TheCalculator]

Miocic will be a rising star for awhile. I plan to ride his coat tails.

[proposition joe]

I guaranteed you guys that Miocic would win. That one was an easy call for me. Fading Stipe might be a big mistake on your part.

He's 225 and gassed in the second round. His striking is below average, he showed no jiu jitsu, no killer instinct or intangibles, and he won't be able to outwrestle any top 20 guys. Beltran is one of the least talented HW's in the UFC and Miocic still barely won.

[bjpenn85]

striking below average?

[proposition joe]

striking below average?

I would say so. Bad striking defense, average striking offense.

[Vaughany]

No doubt. All in.

Can't wait til this guy makes it to the UFC, his highlight video is amazing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWDJDB_2D_8

ha on subject of Sapp, check out his latest fight!!

[gabe]

He's 225 and gassed in the second round. His striking is below average, he showed no jiu jitsu, no killer instinct or intangibles, and he won't be able to outwrestle any top 20 guys. Beltran is one of the least talented HW's in the UFC and Miocic still barely won.

He was in better condition than Joey Beltran. If he was gassed by the second round, Beltran would have finished him. I don't know what fight you were watching.

You're saying Beltran is one of the least talented, but before the fight, you were talking him up. Come on, man...

[proposition joe]

He was in better condition than Joey Beltran. If he was gassed by the second round, Beltran would have finished him. I don't know what fight you were watching.

You're saying Beltran is one of the least talented, but before the fight, you were talking him up. Come on, man...

1) Beltran has shit cardio, what's your point?

2) I have never talked Beltran up, I simply said that I didn't think he was that much worse than Stipe, and he really wasn't. Me betting on that fight was because of a lack of faith in Miocic, not anything to do with Beltran. I made that very clear.

3) Beltran has a chin and power, enough to beat a sloppy second-rate fighter.

4) But I should probably defer to you, gabe, since you did so well on 136. Maybe if I waited and posted my picks AFTER the event, I would win more $$$ too.

[TheCalculator]

I would say so. Bad striking defense, average striking offense.

His striking defense was very, very good in the 1st round. It went to shit in the 2nd as Beltran brought into the brawl zone. He recomposed in the 3rd and started using his brain again.

Beltran is a great acid test for any up and coming fighter. The man is like the ******* Terminator. It's insane how much punishment he can take.

[gabe]

1) Beltran has shit cardio, what's your point?

2) I have never talked Beltran up, I simply said that I didn't think he was that much worse than Stipe, and he really wasn't. Me betting on that fight was because of a lack of faith in Miocic, not anything to do with Beltran. I made that very clear.

3) Beltran has a chin and power, enough to beat a sloppy second-rate fighter.

4) But I should probably defer to you, gabe, since you did so well on 136. Maybe if I waited and posted my picks AFTER the event, I would win more $$$ too.

um, my picks were on the first page of my thread, which was posted DAYS before the fights, so...i guess you missed them?

you're saying beltran has shit cardio when before you were saying the opposite... beltran does not have shit cardio, he is a good conditioned heavyweight. you don't know what you're saying, prop joe. marlo was right to put you out.

[proposition joe]

um, my picks were on the first page of my thread, which was posted DAYS before the fights, so...i guess you missed them?

you're saying beltran has shit cardio when before you were saying the opposite... beltran does not have shit cardio, he is a good conditioned heavyweight. you don't know what you're saying, prop joe. marlo was right to put you out.

**** a Marlo Stanfield.

I've never said Beltran has good cardio, to my knowledge. He has bad cardio but great ability to absorb damage and a tremendous chin. Big difference. But who cares about Beltran? I've never been hype on Beltran, I've been down on Stipe. And truth is, until we see who he's matched up with and see how he fights against them, neither of us know what will happen.

And yeah, I saw you're picks and analysis and it was well thought out. I'm not saying you don't know you're shit. It is a little sketch to not post your bets until after the event though, as numbers could easily be altered to make a losing night look like a winning one. It really isn't of my concern though, but if you're going to say that I don't know what I'm talking about when I clearly do then it is something I can use against you. I mean, for instance you never once commented on Elkins being a good dog bet but he showed up in your results. Doesn't mean you didn't bet on him, but still, it's a bit convenient. I placed a last second bet on Kirwan to beat Nazare at Bellator 54 the other night but didn't put it in my thread, because I would fully expect people to think I was full of shit. It would discredit me and you posting your bets and amounts AFTER discredits you whether it be rightfully so or not. Again, I DONT CARE about your results, it doesn't affect me. I'm here for conversation and discussion, not bragging rights or anything of that matter. But once you begin trying to discredit my opinion simply because I disagree about a fighter whose talent is still an anomale to most, I am forced to do the same to you.

[gabe]

**** a Marlo Stanfield.

I've never said Beltran has good cardio, to my knowledge. He has bad cardio but great ability to absorb damage and a tremendous chin. Big difference. But who cares about Beltran? I've never been hype on Beltran, I've been down on Stipe. And truth is, until we see who he's matched up with and see how he fights against them, neither of us know what will happen.

And yeah, I saw you're picks and analysis and it was well thought out. I'm not saying you don't know you're shit. It is a little sketch to not post your bets until after the event though, as numbers could easily be altered to make a losing night look like a winning one. It really isn't of my concern though, but if you're going to say that I don't know what I'm talking about when I clearly do then it is something I can use against you. I mean, for instance you never once commented on Elkins being a good dog bet but he showed up in your results. Doesn't mean you didn't bet on him, but still, it's a bit convenient. I placed a last second bet on Kirwan to beat Nazare at Bellator 54 the other night but didn't put it in my thread, because I would fully expect people to think I was full of shit. It would discredit me and you posting your bets and amounts AFTER discredits you whether it be rightfully so or not. Again, I DONT CARE about your results, it doesn't affect me. I'm here for conversation and discussion, not bragging rights or anything of that matter. But once you begin trying to discredit my opinion simply because I disagree about a fighter whose talent is still an anomale to most, I am forced to do the same to you.

I'm not trying to discredit anything. Just said you were positive about Beltran before and are down on him after the loss. Also, Miocic wasn't gassed out in the 2nd round, he was in better condition than Beltran, who is a good conditioned heavyweight that regularly goes the distance. The main use for Stipe going into this fight was whether he would gas out, and he didn't. But you're saying he did. See what I'm getting at?

Yeah, I never commented on Elkins being a good dog bet. If I thought he was for sure, then I would have bet more than $30 on him. I think it was my smallest bet of the night. I like to place bets on almost all the fights, to make them more entertaining. My bets and my picks are not the same. I'm not done making my bets on the fights til literally before the fights start. I always add money, and fights I don't have picked, I pick a fighter when they're coming out, usually the underdog... just 'cos I won $33 on Elkins, doesn't mean he was a brilliant pick. At the end of every card, I just include how I did, betting-wise. If I tell you what I'm gonna bet on every fight from the beginning, then that would restrict me from adding more money before the fights start. Only reason I lost so much on KenFlo and Maynard was because I kept adding in the final minutes... Because of those 2 losses, i lost a great deal, and only came out +$155. I'd like to think someone who wastes his times with lies on the internet would be smarter than that. Wouldn't have said I lost so much on KenFlo and Maynard.

[omalley21]

Beltran has terrible cardio... He drinks all the time and doesn't train very much. Just a freak of nature.

[gabe]

Beltran has terrible cardio... He drinks all the time and doesn't train very much. Just a freak of nature.

He's got some of the best conditioning among the heavyweights. Maybe he doesn't train to get it, but it shows in his fights. Most heavyweights are more gassed than he is in the third round.

[proposition joe]

I'm not trying to discredit anything. Just said you were positive about Beltran before and are down on him after the loss. Also, Miocic wasn't gassed out in the 2nd round, he was in better condition than Beltran, who is a good conditioned heavyweight that regularly goes the distance. The main use for Stipe going into this fight was whether he would gas out, and he didn't. But you're saying he did. See what I'm getting at?

Yeah, I never commented on Elkins being a good dog bet. If I thought he was for sure, then I would have bet more than $30 on him. I think it was my smallest bet of the night. I like to place bets on almost all the fights, to make them more entertaining. My bets and my picks are not the same. I'm not done making my bets on the fights til literally before the fights start. I always add money, and fights I don't have picked, I pick a fighter when they're coming out, usually the underdog... just 'cos I won $33 on Elkins, doesn't mean he was a brilliant pick. At the end of every card, I just include how I did, betting-wise. If I tell you what I'm gonna bet on every fight from the beginning, then that would restrict me from adding more money before the fights start. Only reason I lost so much on KenFlo and Maynard was because I kept adding in the final minutes... Because of those 2 losses, i lost a great deal, and only came out +$155. I'd like to think someone who wastes his times with lies on the internet would be smarter than that. Wouldn't have said I lost so much on KenFlo and Maynard.

You are right about me being positive about Beltran before the fight and down on him after the loss. He was dissappointing. But I didn't ever reference him having good cardio, and didn't call him skilled. My beliefs that he is out of shape and not very skilled are the same as they were before the fight, only they now are more prevalent in my perception of the Mexicutioner than the positives (chin, power, ability to make people fight his fight, size) while I was taking a more optimistic outlook upon his game before.

As far as Stipe, well, it looked to me like he gassed. Usually when a fighter's defense goes out the window, he is either frustrated (he was winning, so no) or gassed. I really don't know how he felt throughout the fight.

And yeah, I'm not calling you a liar, just pointing out something I noticed. I didn't like how you insinuated that I was trying to reneg upon things that I had said pre-fight. When I'm wrong about something, I will admit that. I don't necessarily think that just because a fighter loses, that betting on him was the wrong move though and that is the case with Beltran which was why I said what I said earlier. I don't consider betting to be about picking who will win a fight. I look at it more as investing in the stocks of different outcomes based upon discrepancies between my beliefs of an outcomes probability and the beliefs of the oddsmakers. After watching that fight go down, it's my opinion that Stipe was still a bit overvalued, even though he won. That's all I'm saying and it is completely congruent with everything that I said before the fight.

[gabe]

You are right about me being positive about Beltran before the fight and down on him after the loss. He was dissappointing. But I didn't ever reference him having good cardio, and didn't call him skilled. My beliefs that he is out of shape and not very skilled are the same as they were before the fight, only they now are more prevalent in my perception of the Mexicutioner than the positives (chin, power, ability to make people fight his fight, size) while I was taking a more optimistic outlook upon his game before.

As far as Stipe, well, it looked to me like he gassed. Usually when a fighter's defense goes out the window, he is either frustrated (he was winning, so no) or gassed. I really don't know how he felt throughout the fight.

And yeah, I'm not calling you a liar, just pointing out something I noticed. I didn't like how you insinuated that I was trying to reneg upon things that I had said pre-fight. When I'm wrong about something, I will admit that. I don't necessarily think that just because a fighter loses, that betting on him was the wrong move though and that is the case with Beltran which was why I said what I said earlier. I don't consider betting to be about picking who will win a fight. I look at it more as investing in the stocks of different outcomes based upon discrepancies between my beliefs of an outcomes probability and the beliefs of the oddsmakers. After watching that fight go down, it's my opinion that Stipe was still a bit overvalued, even though he won. That's all I'm saying and it is completely congruent with everything that I said before the fight.

Stipe shouldn't have been that big a favorite, I agree.

[Vaughany]

Beltran has terrible cardio... He drinks all the time and doesn't train very much. Just a freak of nature.

His diet maybe isnt great but he actually trains quite hard. He's even training at AKA now, if you didnt train much I doubt u'd go straight from a fight against Miocic and go straight to a new camp and start training again

[gabe]

lol @ all you carmont doubters...... i shoulda stuck with my gut and went with him.

[Vaughany]

Don't think there were any doubters? Most where talking bout Miocic and Beltran on here. Eccocide and I both had plays on Carmont

[gabe]

Don't think there were any doubters? Most where talking bout Miocic and Beltran on here. Eccocide and I both had plays on Carmont

yeah, plenty of people having a laugh at the thought of him having a chance. calling him a poor striker, etc.

[Vaughany]

yeah, plenty of people having a laugh at the thought of him having a chance. calling him a poor striker, etc.

Just read the through the thread again - can't see anybody... l"aughing at the thought of him having a chance or calling him a poor striker, etc..."??