UFC: Fight for the Troops 2 1/22/11

[1nce]

Im liking that Hominick by sub has gone down from 4/1 to 7/2.

I tailed you on this one a few days ago, to be honest i haven't seen much of these two but i trust you evaluation

LOL at google translate, I've been editing like a mad man

Yeah, got it at ladbrokes. They have been giving some nice odds lately. A while ago they suddenly stopped having any odds on MMA, I think it was during 2-3 months or so. Might be a coupe to lure fight bettors in again and then sharpen the lines cause i can't remember them ever having these nice odds before.

[Vaughany]

I checked my history and it seems they started to tighten the limits around september and it's shrinking more and more, soon I'll stop playing there. Are you using sportingbet.com? At times they are just as stupid as uncle paddy when releasing their props, one yhat comes to mind was Bisping by decision @+225 over Akiyama which i went heavy on

Fact is that i already had placed a small bet on that at 5dimes @+133 since i saw value and then all of a sudden sportingbet hands out that gift.

I havnt got an account yet with Sportingbet but I do check their odds all the time, I nearly signed up just before UFC 124 when they have Alves/Howard FOTN at +850. I must not of caught the Bisping by decision at +225 otherwise Id of signed up for sure! I got +167.5 on Skybet which wasnt bad in comparison to the U.S sites! I've got StanJames and WilliamHill accounts as well but their odds are rarely good.

[Vaughany]

I tailed you on this one a few days ago, to be honest i haven't seen much of these two but i trust you evaluation

LOL at google translate, I've been editing like a mad man

Yeah, got it at ladbrokes. They have been giving some nice odds lately. A while ago they suddenly stopped having any odds on MMA, I think it was during 2-3 months or so. Might be a coupe to lure fight bettors in again and then sharpen the lines cause i can't remember them ever having these nice odds before.

I'll probly take Hominick by decision as well if the odds are decent on Sportbet or Bookmaker as I see Hominick winning this by either decision or sub. I dont think Hominick by Sub will come out on the U.S books any way near +400 so I had to take it (but again very low amount due to paddy's limit)!

I only started checking ladbrokes for MMA last month and then noticed the Wiman +190 line so created an account right away!

BTW just noticed that Sportingbet have Guillard by Stoppage at +500 and by decision at +450 so better than Paddy.

[1nce]

BTW just noticed that Sportingbet have Guillard by Stoppage at +500 and by decision at +450 so better than Paddy.

Those must be fresh outta the oven! Checked a few hours ago and they had no props out. I won't be placing any more bets on Guillard, actually i like the straight wager at +200 better since i could see Guillard winning the decision tho (T)KO is more probable. Will be putting more on the figth not going the distance 1.80@Sportingbet

[1nce]

10u Mitrione vs. Hague not to go the distance 1.833(-120)@5dimes.

Great odds imo

[urge2kill]

10u Mitrione vs. Hague not to go the distance 1.833(-120)@5dimes.

Great odds imo

-150 already.

[Vaughany]

Yee good odds, I'd of taken the -120 but only just logged on....as Urge states it's -150 now.

Also, if Paddy hadnt put the limits on could of got a decent miracle bet with Fight to go distance at +175 on paddy and -120 for it not to go distance on Sportbet/5dimes.

[1nce]

Yee good odds, I'd of taken the -120 but only just logged on....as Urge states it's -150 now.

I got it only minutes before, but I still see some value as i capped it like this:

My odds:
Matt Mitrione Vs. Tim Hague 1.58 2.72, -172 +172
Go the distance vs. Not go the distance 2.86 1.54, +186 -185

[Vaughany]

Yee but I already have a play on Mitrione by decision dont I so would not be worth the hedge at -150. Probably would of taken it if didnt already have the Mitrione by decision play.

[xelance]

now I am starting to think I shouldnt have put money down on Dunham.. dangit. I will have to wait for the props to come out on bookmaker to hedge it.

[flickavic]

1nce, great takes man.Even if someone disagrees with you, its always nice to get as many takes on a fight as you can and yours are broken down well..

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Vaughany]

In case anybody isn't already aware, you can watch the McKenzie/Edwards and Johnson/Guymon fights on facebook if you join the group before the fights start!

[1nce]

I see many of you like Freire's chances. I have to go against you on this one as i really think that Waylon grinds the W. Here's some thoughts... Both of them are poor strikers, especially Waylon. Freire has better technique on his feet and has some good kicks, while Waylon in fact is such a bad striker that he can hardly set up his shots with strikes. With this being said i still like Waylon to win big time cause I don't see this fight being held on the feet.

Even though Waylon doesn't set up his shots very well, he's a great wrestler and his takedowns are hard to stop. Freire's takedown defence is modest but not nearly good enough to stop the takedowns from Waylon. When on the mat Freire doesen't impose many threats, his guard isn't offensive at all and the only thing he does good of his back is controlling the opponents wrists. Surely he can stall it a bit with this tactique but he will remain on his back and take sporadic punishment from Waylon.

I'm not calling this bet a lock but I see Waylon winning this by a comfortable decision. I have Waylon as a clear favorite in this match. Expect a snooze fest... Conclusion:

10u on Waylon Lowe 2.075@Sportingbet

Oh, forgot to mention that Freire's coming off a knee injury also.

[Vaughany]

I see many of you like Freire's chances. I have to go against you on this one as i really think that Waylon grinds the W. Here's some thoughts... Both of them are poor strikers, especially Waylon. Freire has better technique on his feet and has some good kicks, while Waylon in fact is such a bad striker that he can hardly set up his shots with strikes. With this being said i still like Waylon to win big time cause I don't see this fight being held on the feet.

Even though Waylon doesn't set up his shots very well, he's a great wrestler and his takedowns are hard to stop. Freire's takedown defence is modest but not nearly good enough to stop the takedowns from Waylon. When on the mat Freire doesen't impose many threats, his guard isn't offensive at all and the only thing he does good of his back is controlling the opponents wrists. Surely he can stall it a bit with this tactique but he will remain on his back and take sporadic punishment from Waylon.

I'm not calling this bet a lock but I see Waylon winning this by a comfortable decision. I have Waylon as a clear favorite in this match. Expect a snooze fest... Conclusion:

10u on Waylon Lowe 2.075@Sportingbet

Oh, forgot to mention that Freire's coming off a knee injury also.

I agree, the most likely outcome probably is Lowe by boringish decision. Freire is also going to have the 'first-time octagon jitters' to overcome as well. I put a small play on him nonetheless at -106 because I think he might get some action closer to fight time and I may be able to arb out with Lowe at +120 or something (I guess I could technically arb out now with the +108 that you got him at).

You didnt grab that Noke opener on paddy did you by any chance? I got 5.55 units max limit on him at +125 - if only paddy hadnt cracked down with the limits Id of been set for the rest of the year!

(EDIT)...Also, just noticed that Paddy have released prop odds for all of the undercard fights, first time ever I think! Put small plays (due to the limits) on Brenneman by decision, Brown by TKO/KO, Waylon Lowe by decision, and Cariaso/Campuzano to decision.

[1nce]

@Vaugh
No, I totally missed that one . I've seen you betting quite often on these "reversed odds" at Paddy and can't help to wonder... Usually when odds are released in that way, in any sport, the bookies will void your bet as they were offering the wrong line by mistake (yes, in 99 cases of 100 it i a mistake by the book). Therefore i never bet these obvious mistakes, because if you do you will get limited faster as the book considers you as an "unreliable customer". Betting like this will probably do you more harm than good in the end as most books will void that kind of bets long before the match takes place and also "flag" you as I mentioned before.

Does Paddy really let these kind of bets stand?

[1nce]

Yeah, that Lowe by decision +225 would've been great if it wasn't that I'm allowed to play for €4.50, LOOOOL at uncle Paddy

For those allowed to put more juice on that one, it's a great bet IMO.

[Vaughany]

@Vaugh
No, I totally missed that one . I've seen you betting quite often on these "reversed odds" at Paddy and can't help to wonder... Usually when odds are released in that way, in any sport, the bookies will void your bet as they were offering the wrong line by mistake (yes, in 99 cases of 100 it i a mistake by the book). Therefore i never bet these obvious mistakes, because if you do you will get limited faster as the book considers you as an "unreliable customer". Betting like this will probably do you more harm than good in the end as most books will void that kind of bets long before the match takes place and also "flag" you as I mentioned before.

Does Paddy really let these kind of bets stand?

Yeah well ive only ever experienced it with paddy and once with skybet so im not sure whether they take such plays in to consideration when placing limits on accounts. As far as Im aware I have no limit on skybet yet and it appears that you have pretty much same limits as me on paddy (even though you havnt taken advantage of the reversed lines!).

Paddy have only ever cancelled one of my plays which was the one on Dan Henderson against Babalu at +225 or something silly! But in that instance they had both Hendo and Babalu as underdogs at +225 (rather than reversed) so it was obvious that it was an error. In all other instances where lines have been reversed I've never had a bet voided, I assume because they cant void it if they had one fighter as a underdog and one as a favourite (even if they dont match the general consensus of lines on other bookies), as otherwise in theory they could cancel any bet that somebody made just because they realise that they should of had a fighter at -180 rather than -125 for instance (but then maybe that doesnt stick because some times you'll get two fighters at 5/6 or something!)

[Vaughany]

Yeah, that Lowe by decision +225 would've been great if it wasn't that I'm allowed to play for €4.50, LOOOOL at uncle Paddy

For those allowed to put more juice on that one, it's a great bet IMO.

Yeah great value in that one, im almost tempted to get my brother to sign up or to get one of my mates to put some on then transfer money to his bank! Next time there is reversed odds like Noke today Im definetely doing something like that so that I can put at least a grand on and then arb out!

[Vaughany]

haha Looks like Cole Miller isnt the only one hating on Cerrone! Danzig's twitter status last week:

"So all you have to do to secure a fight you haven't earned is wear a silly hat, call yourself "cowboy" and talk trash? Seems strange."

Interesting to see all these UFC LW's suggesting that the WEC fighter's aren't worthy or good enough to hang with them. Bocek and Jim Miller have also been vocal in their opinions on the level of competition coming across from WEC.

[urge2kill]

Cerrone has to "earn" a fight against Paul Kelly?

[Vaughany]

Cerrone has to "earn" a fight against Paul Kelly?

ha yeah to be fair it would be difficult for the UFC to give him anybody lower, with all due respect to Kelly he is is clearly just a gatekeeper who is kept in the UFC because he always puts on an exciting fight. Only guy below Kelly who Cerrone perhaps would deserve to fight in Danzig's eyes would be Ruediger!

[Poppa Catfish]

haha Looks like Cole Miller isnt the only one hating on Cerrone! Danzig's twitter status last week:

"So all you have to do to secure a fight you haven't earned is wear a silly hat, call yourself "cowboy" and talk trash? Seems strange."

Interesting to see all these UFC LW's suggesting that the WEC fighter's aren't worthy or good enough to hang with them. Bocek and Jim Miller have also been vocal in their opinions on the level of competition coming across from WEC.

Yet another reason why I would like Pettis to have a tune up match in the UFC before taking on the champ, we are talking about a dramatic increase in competition.

[The HOFF]

haha Looks like Cole Miller isnt the only one hating on Cerrone! Danzig's twitter status last week:

"So all you have to do to secure a fight you haven't earned is wear a silly hat, call yourself "cowboy" and talk trash? Seems strange."

Interesting to see all these UFC LW's suggesting that the WEC fighter's aren't worthy or good enough to hang with them. Bocek and Jim Miller have also been vocal in their opinions on the level of competition coming across from WEC.

I want to see the WEC fighters kick some ass. They have been putting on better fights than the UFC lightweights for some time now. Cerrone is one of my favorite fighters. Line 'em up Miller, Danzig, etc.. and Cowboy will knock 'em down.

[Vaughany]

I want to see the WEC fighters kick some ass. They have been putting on better fights than the UFC lightweights for some time now. Cerrone is one of my favorite fighters. Line 'em up Miller, Danzig, etc.. and Cowboy will knock 'em down.

ha Yeah me 2, although Im not a fan of Cowboy and I'd bet my left nut that he wouldnt beat Jim Miller! I did find it quite ironic that when Cerrone was asked about Kelly he said "Who is he? Ive never heard of him!" Paul Kelly could quite easily say the same thing about Cowboy! Beating a psychologically already-beaten douche like Varner (who is now on a MMA hiatus) doesnt exactly suddenly make Cowboy above the lower-level guys like Kelly in the UFC!

[Educ8d Degener8]

haha Looks like Cole Miller isnt the only one hating on Cerrone! Danzig's twitter status last week:

"So all you have to do to secure a fight you haven't earned is wear a silly hat, call yourself "cowboy" and talk trash? Seems strange."

Interesting to see all these UFC LW's suggesting that the WEC fighter's aren't worthy or good enough to hang with them. Bocek and Jim Miller have also been vocal in their opinions on the level of competition coming across from WEC.

Mac Danzig talking trash about anyone makes me LOL. Dude has sucked the TUF teet dryer than a desert.

[Vaughany]

Mac Danzig talking trash about anyone makes me LOL. Dude has sucked the TUF teet dryer than a desert.

[Vaughany]

Also, u can watch the Jim Miller vs Wiman fight from Fight for the Troops 1 on UFC.com (Fight of the Night).

[The HOFF]

Official fighter weigh-ins for "UFC Fight Night 23: UFC Fights for the Troops 2" event are set for Friday, Jan. 21, at Fort Hood in Killeen, Texas

The same venue hosts the following day's Spike TV- and Facebook.com-broadcast UFC Fight Night 23 event.

The weigh-ins take place at approximately 5 p.m. ET (4 p.m. CT local time). However, due to the secure nature of the location, the public will not be invited to attend the ceremony.

Additionally, the UFC is not able to provide its customary live stream of the weigh-ins. However, MMAjunkie.com will be on hand to provide live results of the proceedings, as well as a photo gallery of all 22 of the night's competitors on the scale.

*This sucks. I always watch the live weigh in before making final bets or adding to bets.

[terpkeg]

Mac Danzig talking trash about anyone makes me LOL. Dude has sucked the TUF teet dryer than a desert.

hahaha, that made me laugh. In fairness to Danzig though, he was fairly accomplished prior to TUF. And, I feel like whenever he is on the verge of being cut, he comes up with a win. Maybe he is just boys with Joe Silva.

[Kaladarus]

SBR should put some lines for these in the sports book.

[Vrakas]

so we get to see some fights this weekend and support our troops at the same time.

[The HOFF]

The full weigh-in results included:

MAIN CARD

• Evan Dunham (156) vs. Melvin Guillard (155)
• Tim Hague (256.5) vs. Matt Mitrione (260)
• Mark Hominick (145.5) vs. George Roop (145)
• Pat Barry (240) vs. Joey Beltran (230)
• Cole Miller (155.5) vs. Matt Wiman (155)

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Yves Edwards (155) vs. Cody McKenzie (155)
• Mike Guymon (170.5) vs. DaMarques Johnson (170)

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Mike Brown (146) vs. Rani Yahya (145)
• Willamy "Chiquerim" Freire (155) vs. Waylon Lowe (156)
• Amilcar Alves (171) vs. Charlie Brenneman (171)
• Chris Cariaso (135) vs. Will Campuzano (135)

[rocky mattioli]

to address two previous posts....

1)the weigh-ins will be shown at 8 pm eastern(delayed) on several mma sites and facebook(this facebook stuff grates on me...i don`t have an account and i`m not starting one)....

2)pettis signed for a fight with the caveman....surprisingly,i like the match-up...

[rocky mattioli]

weigh in linkee..

http://www.fightline.com/fl/news/2011/0121/535715/ufc-fight-for-the-troops-2-weigh-ins/