1. #1
    JIBBBY
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    UFC Fight Night - YAN vs DVALISHVILI - 3/11


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    JIBBBY
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    Prelim write ups MMA MANIA -







    125 lbs.: Ariane Lipski (14-8) vs. JJ Aldrich (11-5)
    “Violence Queen” battled her way out of a two-fight skid with consecutive wins over Isabela de Padua and Luana Carolina, the latter of which earned her Performance of the Night. She’s yet to recapture that form, losing three of her last four inside the distance. She’s knocked out six pro foes and submitted another three.
    Aldrich quietly worked her way through the ranks with a 7-2 run, highlighted by a dominant decision win over Gillian Robertson. Her next effort pitted her against Erin Blanchfield, who handed Aldrich her first pro submission loss since 2015 via guillotine. She stands an inch shorter than Lipski at 5’5”.
    I really did want to see Lipski succeed, and I held onto hope for the longest time that she’d fix what ailed her. Getting outslugged by Priscila Cachoeira has me thinking it’s time to cut bait. That’s not to say that she can’t overpower Aldrich on the feet, just that I don’t trust her to execute against a seasoned, well-rounded striker with the wrestling to exploit Lipski’s forever weak bottom game.
    My fingers are crossed that Lipski, who’s still just 29, can live up to her potential. That’s just my heart, though, and my head says Aldrich takes the path of least resistance and wrestles her way to victory.
    Prediction: Aldrich by unanimous decision


    135 lbs.:
    Victor Henry (22-6) vs. Tony Gravely (23-8)
    Henry’s years of success on the Japanese circuit finally led to a UFC debut in January 2022, and “La Mangosta” made the most of the opportunity by upsetting Raoni Barcelos at UFC 270. Then came Raphael Assuncao, who handed Henry an upset defeat of his own nine months later. He’s the taller man by two inches but faces a one-inch reach disadvantage.
    Gravely rebounded from his Fight of the Night UFC debut loss to Brett Johns with wins in four of his next five, including a bonus-winning knockout of Anthony Birchak. He managed to win the first round against fast-rising prospect Javid Basharat last time out, but ultimately found himself outworked down the stretch for his third Octagon defeat. 10 of his 13 pro stoppage wins have come by knockout.
    As with most of his fights, Gravely has the tools to win comfortably. He’s a fair bit faster and more powerful than Henry on the feet and boasts a much superior wrestling pedigree. The question is how long Gravely can keep it together; he’s faded late and thrown away winnable fights before, which is a bad habit to have against someone as durable, seasoned, and persistent as Henry.
    I’m leaning Henry’s way, though just barely. His takedown defense held up fairly well against Barcelos and he’s skilled enough off of his back to at least make Gravely spend vital calories trying to hold him down. The tide turns right around the middle of the second round, allowing Henry’s volume to take over late and secure a narrow win.
    Prediction: Henry by split decision


    125 lbs.:
    Tyson Nam (21-12-1) vs. Bruno Silva (12-5-2)
    Nam’s two-fight knockout streak came to an end at the hands of Matt Schnell, who edged out a split decision in January 2021. A nearly 19-month layoff followed, which Nam ended in dramatic fashion with a one-punch Performance of the Night knockout of Ode Osbourne. All but one of his 14 pro finishes have come by (T)KO..
    Silva, a former TUF: Brazil 4 competitor, struggled his way to an 0-2 (1 NC) UFC start. Subsequent efforts proved more fruitful, as he knocked out JP Buys and Victor Rodriguez for back-to-back bonuses. He fights for the first time in almost 22 months.
    We all know the Tyson Nam script at this point. He is, at 39 years old, the same Tyson Nam he’s always been: heavy-handed, durable, difficult to take down, and disinclined to throw more punches than the absolute minimum needed to render his opponent unconscious. Fighting him is a test of composure more than anything else; he won’t make his own opportunities, but you’d damn well better not give him any.
    I think Silva’s up to the task. He’s stood up to heavy hitters before and offers enough variety in his striking and grappling to keep Nam from lining up a counter. He walks the tightrope well enough to outwork Nam for a comfortable decision win.
    Prediction: Silva by unanimous decision


    170 lbs.:
    Carlston Harris (17-5) vs. Abubakar Nurmagomedov (17-3-1)
    Harris followed his shock upset of Saygid Izagakhmaev with first-round UFC finishes of Christian Aguilera and Impa Kasanganay. He then signed to face Shavkat Rakhmonov, who put “Moambique” away with a wheel kick late in the first. He’s knocked out and submitted five pro foes apiece.
    Nurmagomedov’s lengthy stint in WSOF/PFL came to an end in October 2018 when he battled UFC veteran Bojan Velickovic to a draw. He’s fought just three times since, most recently out-dueling Gadzhi Omargadzhiev at UFC 280. He gives up four inches of reach to Harris.
    Lots of fun storylines here, from Nurmagomedov trying to avenge Izagakhmaev to the general stylistic clash between Nurmagomedov’s increasingly polished overall game and Harris’ semi-improvisational violence. Though I genuinely believe Nurmagomedov has improved considerably during his time in the Octagon, I’m still leaning towards Harris; he’s by far the better finisher, can hold his own in the grappling, and packs enough power to make up for his technical deficiencies on the feet.
    Nurmagomedov might have what it takes to walk the tightrope against Harris, but between Harris’ ability to end a fight out of nowhere and his success against a very similar fighter in Izagakhmaev, odds are he’ll find Nurmagomedov’s neck before too terribly long.
    Prediction: Harris by first-round submission


    265 lbs.: Karl Williams (7-1) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (8-2-1)
    Williams, who suffered the first loss of his pro career at the hands of Bellator and PFL veteran Jason Butcher in June 2021, started 2022 strong with three consecutive wins. He then stepped up in weight on 10 days’ notice to challenge Jimmy Lawson on the Contender Series, dominating for three rounds to claim a UFC contract. He stands an inch shorter than “The Bull” but boasts a one-inch reach advantage.
    A failed drug test for clomiphene overturned Brzeski’s Contender Series victory over Dylan Potter and left him on the sidelines for nearly a year. He finally made his UFC debut in August 2022, losing a highly controversial split decision to fellow DWCS grad Martin Buday. His seven pro finishes are split 5/2 between knockouts and submissions.
    Credit where it’s due: Brzeski greatly exceeded expectations against Buday, especially his ability to sustain his output. That said, he definitely benefited from Buday’s lack of speed and urgency, a luxury he won’t enjoy against the super-athletic Williams. I favor Williams’ faster, sharper boxing over Brzeski’s long punching volleys on the feet, and the former has shown off enough wrestling skills to prevent Brzeski from leaning on his usual grind-heavy Plan B,
    Brzeski does have one thing going for him, though, and that’s Williams’ inexperience fighting at 265. Though Williams was able to manhandle Lawson, it’s anyone’s guess whether he can stand up to Brzeski’s body attack with similar ease. Still, Williams’ physical advantages and ability to control Brzeski as needed make him the clear winner.
    Prediction: Williams by unanimous decision


    135 lbs.:
    Raphael Assuncao (28-9) vs. Davey Grant (14-6)
    A torrid 12-1 run, marred only by a loss to TJ Dillashaw in their rematch, gave way to four consecutive losses for Assuncao. In October 2022, with his back against the wall, he defied more than three-to-one odds to beat Victor Henry for his first win in over four years. He gives up three inches of height and reach to Grant.
    After years of injuries and setbacks, former TUF 18 finalist Grant finally found his groove with three straight wins. Competitive Fight of the Night losses to Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez slowed his momentum, though he got back on track in May 2022 by pounding out Louis Smolka. He steps in for Kyler Phillips on around a month’s notice.
    This one comes down to pace. Assuncao slowed Henry down with a mix of sharp counters and takedowns, preventing the younger, busier man from ever building a head of steam. He’ll have to do the same to Grant, though he’ll find that more difficult. Grant seems a fair bit more reckless than Henry and is also a far more focused body puncher; considering he traded with and at times overpowered the ultra-dangerous Yanez, I don’t see Assuncao scaring him off without taking real damage in the process.
    Grant’s not too shabby a wrestler, either, so he should be able to keep it on the feet and overcome Assuncao’s precision with power and output. He lands the heavier, more eye-catching blows to secure the decision.
    Prediction: Grant by unanimous decision


    185 lbs.:
    Sedriques Dumas (7-0) vs. Josh Fremd (9-4)
    Dumas cut a swath through Jorge Masvidal’s various organizations en route to an August 2022 Contender Series battle with Matej Penaz. Though “The Reaper” entered as an underdog, he secured both the win and a contract by choking Penaz out in 47 seconds. He’s ended six pro fights inside the distance, four of them via knockout and three of those via kick.
    Fremd made a two-month turnaround on short notice to battle Anthony Hernandez at UFC 273, ultimately struggling with “Fluffy’s” pace en route to a decision loss. Those grappling issues reared their heads once again against Tresean Gore, as Fremd fell victim to a lethal guillotine in the opening seconds of the second. He replaces Abu Azaitar on less than two weeks’ notice.
    Fremd is unquestionably a trickier opponent than the one-note, cardio-deficient Azaitar. Whether he’s good enough to hand Dumas his first defeat is another question entirely. Besides the striking skills with which he made his name, “The Reaper” has shown off the sort of sticky grappling game that Hernandez and Gore used to great effect against Fremd.
    If this was a pure striking battle, Fremd would have a very strong chance of exploiting Dumas’ limited boxing and overpowering him down the stretch. As is, Fremd has proven too vulnerable to one of Dumas’ better weapons. Much like the Penaz fight, Dumas finds Fremd’s neck in the early going.
    Prediction: Dumas by first-round submission


    135 lbs.:
    Mario Bautista (11-2) vs. Guido Cannetti (10-7)
    Bautista now sits at 5-1 since a disastrous short-notice UFC debut saw him tap to a Cory Sandhagen armbar in 2019. His current three-fight winning streak most recently saw him submit Benito Lopez with a bonus-winning armbar for his third Octagon finish. That victory marked his fifth pro submission and eighth stoppage win overall.
    The 43-year-old “Ninja” followed an 0-2 TUF: Latin America run with a 2-5 UFC start over the course of seven years. Undaunted, he’s since put together his first multi-fight winning streak in nearly a decade by stopping Kris Moutinho and Randy Costa in a combined 3:11. He is the shorter man by three inches.
    These two were originally supposed to fight in late 2021 when they were both coming off of brutal knockout losses. The matchmaking made sense at the time, but not so much anymore. Bautista’s come into his own as a genuine contender, and letting him brutalize Cannetti after “Ninja” finally got to taste some sustained success feels a bit cruel.
    Though I suppose you could look at it like allowing someone one last delicious meal before their execution. Merciful, in a sense.
    Cannetti has nothing for Bautista. His aggressive slugging can’t hope to match Bautista’s slick kickboxing and the latter’s grappling has grown too potent for Guido to grind him out. Sheer chutzpah keeps Cannetti in the running for a bit, but Bautista should finish him well before the halfway mark.
    Prediction: Bautista by second-round submission

  3. #3
    Allure
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    Merab HUGE. Double, triple HUGE.

    HUGE
    HUGE
    HUGE
    Points Awarded:

    JC2008 gave Allure 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


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    JIBBBY
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    UFC Las Vegas Odds For Main Card:


    Petr Yan (-250) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+210)


    I’m definitely with Yan in a five-rounder. Dvalishvili doesn’t have the long-range striking or impeccable back control that Aljamain Sterling used to beat Yan in their rematch; he’s more about aggression, high-volume takedowns, and scrambles, all of which Yan has proven he can handle for 25 minutes. Yan’s too sharp, too powerful, and too well-conditioned to succumb to Dvalishvili’s grind.

    Alexandr Romanov (-155) vs. Alexander Volkov (+135)


    Skip it. Romanov has the tools to overpower Volkov on the ground, but whether that bizarre performance against Marcin Tybura was due to unfixed cardio, the high altitude, or just poor decision-making, I’m not willing to bank on him.

    Nikita Krylov (-170) vs. Ryan Spann (+145)


    As I said last time, I don’t want any part of a fight between these two messes.

    Ricardo Ramos
    (-365) vs. Austin Lingo (+300)


    I’ve never been hugely impressed with Lingo, who’s fairly limited in terms of striking technique and has struggled on the mat. Stuff the much more versatile Ramos in a parlay, though keep it mild because of Lingo’s layoff.

    Said Nurmagomedov
    (-240) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+200)


    Skip it. This is almost a mirror match in terms of general striking styles, and though Nurmagomedov has the edge in durability and submissions, Martinez is dangerous enough that this is best avoided.

    Vitor Petrino
    (-110) vs. Anton Turkalj (-110)


    I really like Petrino here at close odds. Beyond the fact that he’s a nasty puncher and Turkalj has leaky defense, “Icao” took out another ultra-focused grinder in Gadzhimurad Antigulov two fights back, so it’s not like he hasn’t dealt with Turkalj’s style before.

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    JIBBBY
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    UFC Las Vegas Odds For ‘Prelims” Undercard:


    Karl Williams
    (-200) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+170)


    Definitely give me Williams here, though I’d have preferred he stay under -200. He’s the better athlete, the sharper boxer, and ostensibly the superior wrestler. Brzeski has the edge in volume and Heavyweight experience, but that’s about it.

    Davey Grant
    (-135) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+115)


    Assuncao surprised a lot of people, myself included, when he defused a red-hot Victor Henry last time out. He’s got a decent shot at doing the same here, but Grant’s got heavier hands and a more committed body attack than Henry. Worth a look at near-even odds, I’d say.

    Sedriques Dumas
    (-180) vs. Josh Fremd (+155)


    It’s not Dumas’ string of first-round finishes that make me think he’ll handle Fremd. It’s his one-sided, grappling-heavy decision over Aaron Highbaugh two fights back. Fremd’s takedown defense has been a consistent thorn in his side during his UFC tenure, a significant-enough flaw to earn Dumas my pick despite the striking being largely even.

    Mario Bautista
    (-975) vs. Guida Cannetti (+675)


    I mean, hell, why not put Bautista in a parlay if you’re desperate for a bit of extra juice? He’s 14 years younger than Cannetti and better than him in every aspect of the sport.

    Victor Henry (-140) vs.
    Tony Gravely (+120)


    Too close to call. While Gravely is inconsistent and prone to falling apart, he’s also a much better wrestler than Henry and possesses much faster, more powerful hands. Skip it.

    JJ Aldrich
    (-320) vs. Ariane Lipski (+265)


    Continuing to believe in Lipski has become akin to Homer insisting that his runaway barbecued pig is “still good.” While she definitely has the power that got us so excited in the first place, the rest of her game just can’t seem to catch up. Knowing my luck, this’ll be the fight where she finally turns things around, but I think Aldrich’s reliability and ability to exploit Lipski’s lackluster ground game are enough to get a nod.

    Bruno Silva
    (-195) vs. Tyson Nam (+165)


    It’s a Tyson Nam fight; either he’s going to knock Silva out or get outworked to a decision loss. I do think Silva is versatile and powerful enough to give Nam fits, so I’m willing to invest in him, but keep it small due to Silva’s layoff and Nam’s one-shot power.

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    Allure
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    UFC Las Vegas Odds For Main Card:


    Petr Yan (-250) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+210)


    I’m definitely with Yan in a five-rounder. Dvalishvili doesn’t have the long-range striking or impeccable back control that Aljamain Sterling used to beat Yan in their rematch; he’s more about aggression, high-volume takedowns, and scrambles, all of which Yan has proven he can handle for 25 minutes. Yan’s too sharp, too powerful, and too well-conditioned to succumb to Dvalishvili’s grind.
    Who wrote this?

  7. #7
    JIBBBY
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    Quick video weigh ins. Gets a little heated with Yan. This card is actually decent.



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    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    Who wrote this?
    MMA MANIA.COM That's where I get all my write ups from. I find it to be the most informative..

  9. #9
    JIBBBY
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  10. #10
    JC2008
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    Jibbby ----> Any solid leans for this card? Are you gonna mess around with your underdog ITD theory?

  11. #11
    Allure
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    MMA MANIA.COM That's where I get all my write ups from. I find it to be the most informative..
    Okay. To me the Yan vs Merab writeup is terrible. Taking Yan at -250 against Merab is ridiculous giving how Merab fights. Whoever wrote this was probably also on Aldo against Merab. Agreed Yan overall is a much better fighter, but that doesn't mean much if your opponent is hugging and pressing you against the fence for 25 minutes, which will happen. The value definitely is with Merab and Merab by decision. I am not saying Yan can't win but the way Merab fights you simply have no value at -250. Merab huge for me. He will be annoying as fukk but what do you expect from Aljos best friend?

  12. #12
    JC2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    Okay. To me the Yan vs Merab writeup is terrible. Taking Yan at -250 against Merab is ridiculous giving how Merab fights. Whoever wrote this was probably also on Aldo against Merab. Agreed Yan overall is a much better fighter, but that doesn't mean much if your opponent is hugging and pressing you against the fence for 25 minutes, which will happen. The value definitely is with Merab and Merab by decision. I am not saying Yan can't win but the way Merab fights you simply have no value at -250. Merab huge for me. He will be annoying as fukk but what do you expect from Aljos best friend?
    I mean, the guy's done terribly with his weekly parlays.

    https://www.mmamania.com/2023/3/8/23...ide-sportsbook

  13. #13
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JC2008 View Post
    Jibbby ----> Any solid leans for this card? Are you gonna mess around with your underdog ITD theory?
    Heavy leans on Krylov and Romanov. Both slight favorites but I really think both get the wins.

    No ITD dog theory with this event. I don't like it.

  14. #14
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    Okay. To me the Yan vs Merab writeup is terrible. Taking Yan at -250 against Merab is ridiculous giving how Merab fights. Whoever wrote this was probably also on Aldo against Merab. Agreed Yan overall is a much better fighter, but that doesn't mean much if your opponent is hugging and pressing you against the fence for 25 minutes, which will happen. The value definitely is with Merab and Merab by decision. I am not saying Yan can't win but the way Merab fights you simply have no value at -250. Merab huge for me. He will be annoying as fukk but what do you expect from Aljos best friend?
    Agreed. I could see Merab winning by decision also. His grappling may win rounds if he can continue to take Yan down.

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    JC2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Heavy leans on Krylov and Romanov. Both slight favorites but I really think both get the wins.

    No ITD dog theory with this event. I don't like it.
    I think Volkov may be LIVE if Romanov doesn't get him out of there in round 1. He's 25 lbs. heavier, I could see him gassing and Volkov getting him out of there. Volkov round 3 was +2000 but it's down to +1500. No always bet black prop on the Krylov/Spann fight? lol. I also think this is the first fight Spann is training full-time; I would assume so after his last post-fight interview. We'll see how that goes though. Krylov is a savage. I am considering taking Yans in 3, 4 and 5-decision.
    Last edited by JC2008; 03-11-23 at 11:59 AM.

  16. #16
    JIBBBY
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    Well it's game time.. GL EVERYONE!

    Let's win some money!

  17. #17
    Nate rasta
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    Spann is my best bet on the card

  18. #18
    JIBBBY
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    Bruno Silva looked good. Worked Nam over. Had him straight but was thinking of taking him ITD and didn't pull that trigger. Didn't wanna get greedy.

  19. #19
    JIBBBY
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    I guess JJ Aldrich by decision next seems to be the smart play.

  20. #20
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I guess JJ Aldrich by decision next seems to be the smart play.
    I threw $5 on Lipski by KO at +1500

    Not really interested in this one.

  21. #21
    JIBBBY
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    I hate these chick fights. Tit for tat.. What ever. JJ got peppered up and out worked standing. Next..

  22. #22
    Kermit
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    Lipski looked great at +300. Too bad I didn't play that.

  23. #23
    JIBBBY
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    Josh Barnett was a nasty MF! DC was right about saying that. Dirty SOB! I liked his fighting game back in the game. Ruthless.





  24. #24
    JIBBBY
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    Dumas was an undefeated fraud. That 0 did go. He got beat down by the bigger white boy.

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    JIBBBY
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    Davy Grant came back from the grave in that fight. Reverse triangle. WOW!!

  26. #26
    JC2008
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    That was an incredible triangle.

  27. #27
    JIBBBY
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    This has been a fun card to watch so far. I'm hit and miss with the betting but hanging there.. More fight to come.

  28. #28
    Kermit
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    Let's see if we can get Said by sub +550

  29. #29
    JIBBBY
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    I had money on Martinez straight but damn I don't know about that decision. Thank you Jesus I needed that!

  30. #30
    JIBBBY
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    Need Krylov here next. Let's do this!

    Brian Spam is over rated I think. He has a punchers chance though but that's it.

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    Just got back from the gym playing ball. Time to watch some ufc before power slap final!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Just got back from the gym playing ball. Time to watch some ufc before power slap final!!
    I'm drinking and betting on this event and you're going to the gym. You da man DEM!

    I could learn from you!

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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Heavy leans on Krylov and Romanov. Both slight favorites but I really think both get the wins.

    No ITD dog theory with this event. I don't like it.
    One down one to go. I bet big on that.. That works!

    Spam tapped and done in a hurry!...

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    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I'm drinking and betting on this event and you're going to the gym. You da man DEM!

    I could learn from you!
    Haha. Just trying to do this stuff while I can before I get too old. I might have a corona or two right now. You da man making the UFC threads and good hit on krylov! I need to learn from you on how to retire early haha
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  35. #35
    JIBBBY
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    This big fat pig Romanov better deliver next. I think Volky is done and fading in the UFC..

    This will make the event for me and make my day!

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