[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill (for vacant light heavyweight title)
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno (for flyweight title)
Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny
Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy
Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker

ABC 8:00 pm ET
Ihor Potieria vs. Mauricio Rua
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Jailton Almeida
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Mounir Lazzez

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Thiago Moises vs. Melquizael Costa
Ismael Bonfim vs. Terrance McKinney
Warlley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby
Zarah Fairn vs. Josiane Nunes
Luan Luiz Lacerda vs. Cody Stamann
Saimon Oliveira vs. Daniel Marcos

[Squareguy]

My heart says Paul Craig is a great bet at +165. Glover is also getting up there in age…

[JIBBBY]

My heart says Paul Craig is a great bet at +165. Glover is also getting up there in age…

.. Agreed with both.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups - MMA MANIA





135 lbs.: Luan Lacerda vs. Cody Stamann

After falling to Ary Farias in his third professional fight, Luan Lacerda (12-1) tore through Shooto Brasil, ultimately claiming the promotion’s Bantamweight title with a submission of Wellington Lopes. He then took his talents to LFA, where he picked up a pair of second-round tapouts.
Ten of his wins have come via submission.
Cody Stamann (20-5-1) quietly worked his way into Bantamweight contention with a 5-1-1 UFC start, only to lose his next three. Nearly two years to the day after his previous victory, he successfully broke out of the slump by knocking out Eddie Wineland in 59 seconds.
If LFA’s “Tale of the Tape” is to be believed, he’ll have more than eight inches of reach on Stamann.
Stamann is a very good fighter with the misfortune of being in a division that demands genuine greatness. Luckily for him, Lacerda’s a step or two below the likes of Merab Dvalishvili and Said Nurmagomedov. The Nova Uniao product boasts a terrific ground game that’s undercut by middling wrestling and poor striking; that huge reach advantage won’t protect him from Stamann’s underrated standup and he’ll have to pull guard if he wants to bring his jiu-jitsu to bear.
All signs point to an ugly affair as Lacerda gets increasingly desperate to bring it to the mat and Stamann maintains a light touch on the gas to avoid giving Lacerda opportunities. Stamann sprawls-and-brawls to a wide decision.
Prediction: Stamann via unanimous decision
Related
Watch ‘Countdown To UFC 283’ Video

155 lbs.: Ismael Bonfim vs. Terrance McKinney

Ismael Bonfim (18-3) enters the cage in the midst of a 12-fight win streak, which dates back to a 2014 submission loss to Renato Moicano. His last three bouts have seen him defeat Rangel de Sa and Andrey Augusto in LFA before out-classing Nariman Abbasov on Contender Series.
He gives up two inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach to Terrance McKinney (13-4).
McKinney followed his Contender Series defeat to Sean Woodson with a 57-second submission loss to Darrick Minner. He’s since roared back with six first-round finishes in his last seven bouts, which include a 3-1 Octagon run.
All of his wins are by stoppage, all but one in the first round.
This really just boils down to whether Bonfim can either stop McKinney with a counter or at the very least scare him off. “Marreta” has a tendency to back himself to the fence, as we saw against Abbasov, and that’s not a good tendency to have against a murderous puncher with excellent wrestling.
That Abbasov fight also showed off how much damage Bonfim can do off the back foot, though. Regard for his own personal well-being has never been among McKinney’s strong suits, so the opportunities will be there to take advantage of his eagerness and punish appropriately. Still, with how many tools McKinney brings to the table, I see him overwhelming Bonfim before the Brazilian’s technical edge can show itself.
Prediction: McKinney via first round technical knockout
Related
Up Next! Championship Doubleheader In Rio!

170 lbs.: Warlley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby

Warlley Alves (15-5) — The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Brazil 3 winner — kicked off his UFC tenure with a 6-2 run. He’s since alternated losses and wins, most recently suffering a knockout defeat to Jeremiah Wells.
This marks his first fight in nearly 19 months.
Nicolas Dalby (20-4-1) fought his way back to UFC with an impressive run under the Cage Warriors banner, then claimed his first Octagon win since 2015 by upsetting Alex Oliveira. He’s now 2-1 (1 “No Contest”) in his last four, as a failed drug test overturned his 2020 defeat to Jesse Ronson.
He boasts a 2.5-inch reach advantage.
This fight is going to be stupid, and I say that as affectionately as possible. On one side, we’ve got a guy in Alves who seemingly has all the tools to succeed, but implodes with worrying regularity. On the other, we’ve got Dalby, a man as likely to win a gutsy comeback decision as he is to get blasted in the first round.
Whoever ends up winning will not do so prettily.
My gut says Alves, largely on the strength of his wrestling. Dalby isn’t super adept at defending takedowns, as we saw against the one-dimensional Claudio Silva. And even if Alves can’t “club-and-sub” him in the first few minutes, he’s got the means to cruise to victory. It’s equally likely that Dalby weathers the storm and takes over late like he did against Oliveira, but something tells me Alves’ signature guillotine will end things before Dalby can get out of first gear.
Prediction: Alves via first round submission
Related
‘Invade Brasilia’

145 lbs.: Josiane Nunes vs. Zarah Fairn

Josiane Nunes (9-1) announced her arrival in UFC by viciously knocking out Bea Malecki in her Octagon debut. She had to go to the judges in her sophomore effort against Ramona Pascual, but kept her win streak intact with a unanimous decision.
She’s ended seven professional fights via knockout.
The UFC debut of Zarah Fairn (6-4) pitted her against Megan Anderson, who put her away with a triangle choke late in the first frame. She wasn’t much more successful against Felicia Spencer, succumbing to ground-and-pound less than four minutes in.
She fights for the first time in nearly three years, having withdrawn from three separate bouts in the interim.
If she does somehow make it to the cage, Fairn should give Nunes some issues. She’s got a half-foot of height and reach on the Brazilian, and she displayed some functional boxing in the brief time she spent on her feet in the Octagon. It’s not like Nunes is a technical marvel — there’s not a lot to her game outside of the overhand left.
That said, Fairn has a 747’s worth of baggage behind her to go along with the cage rust. Once Nunes builds up a head of steam, it seems inevitable that Fairn will succumb. Fairn could wind up boxing “Josi” up, but that demands a level of discipline I’m not convinced “Infinite” possesses. Even with the size difference, Nunes knocks her block off.
Prediction: Nunes via first round technical knockout
Related
Hill Assembling Sweet Dreams All-Star Team For UFC 283

135 lbs.: Saimon Oliveira vs. Daniel Marcos

Though he failed to find the finish on Contender Series, Saimon Oliveira (18-4) impressed the brass enough to earn a UFC contract. Then came Tony Gravely, who avoided Oliveira’s constant guillotine attempts to snap his five-fight win streak.
He fights for the first time in exactly 364 days.
Daniel Marcos (13-0) established himself as king of the hill in his native Peru before spending 33 months on the sidelines. He returned to action in September 2022, outclassing Brandon Lewis on the Contender Series to punch his ticket to the Octagon.
Seven of his professional wins have come via (technical) knockout.
Always fun to see a mirror match. This time, it’s two upright, powerful Muay Thai artists who figured to beat the snot out of each other for however long the fight lasts.
For my money, Oliveira’s the likelier of the two to emerge victorious. He’s faced significantly stronger competition than Marcos, so we know he can deal with adversity and keep coming, and Marcos showed some potential cardio issues in his Contender Series victory over Brandon Lewis. Once things get into deep waters, I have more faith in Oliveira’s ability to stay afloat than Marcos’, especially since Marcos lacks the powerful wrestling needed to keep Oliveira from unleashing his full arsenal. Oliveira out-slugs him for a fun 15 minutes.
Prediction: Oliveira via unanimous decision


205 lbs.: Mauricio Rua vs. Ihor Potieria

A 2-0-1 run marked just the second time since 2007 that Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (27-13-1) put together a three-fight unbeaten streak. It wasn’t to last, and he enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of consecutive losses to Paul Craig and Ovince Saint Preux.
He stands two inches shorter than Ihor Potieria (19-3), but will enjoy a one-inch reach advantage.
Potieria extended his win streak to 15 with a first round Contender Series knockout of Lukasz Sudolski, which also earned him a UFC contract. His Octagon tenure began 10 months later, when he suffered a technical knockout loss to Nicolae Negumereanu.
He’s knocked out and submitted seven professional foes apiece.
Christ, I’m dreading this. “Shogun’s” been shot to bits for years and I have no desire to watch him absorb even more punishment. While Potieiria is decidedly mediocre, he’s 15 years younger than Rua and possesses two functional knees, which is enough to carry him past what’s left of the Brazilian legend.
All that’s left of Rua is a semi-functional grinder, and even with Potieria’s awful ground game, I can’t see Rua manhandling someone who isn’t as physically wrecked as himself. Sadly, Potieria should blow him away in the opening minutes.
Prediction: Potieria via first round technical knockout
Related
Hill Assembling Sweet Dreams All-Star Team For UFC 283

185 lbs.: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira

An unsuccessful Contender Series bid failed to drag down Gregory Rodriguez (13-4), as he swiftly claimed LFA’s Middleweight belt with a knockout of Josh Fremd. “Robocop” now sits at 4-1 in the Octagon, the lone loss a controversial one to fellow Contender Series alum, Armen Petrosyan.
Eleven of his wins have come inside the distance, seven of them by knockout.
Brunno Ferreira (9-0) spent the first three years of his career rampaging through the Brazilian scene, ultimately winning the Big Shot MMA title with a vicious ground-and-pound finish. His fourth fight of 2022 took place on Contender Series, where he knocked out Leon Aliu to secure a contract.
“The Hulk” replaces Brad Tavares on less than two weeks’ notice.
As with most of Rodrigues’ fights, this really comes down to how easy he wants to make it for himself. If he leans on his Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Ferreira doesn’t have many answers. And while “The Hulk” has some powerful slams and can do damage from the top, he’s demonstrated some deficiencies in positioning that a grappler of Rodrigues’ caliber can feast on.
Knowing Rodrigues, though, he’ll probably meet Ferreira head on. He’ll still win that kind of fight thanks to his size, power and technique, but it’ll be a much hairier proposition because of Ferreira’s explosiveness. Seeing as Rodrigues’ durability has held up since the Williams debacle, I’m willing to put my faith in him anyway. Whether it’s the easy way or the hard way, he stops Ferreira inside two rounds.
Prediction: Rodrigues via first round technical knockout
Related
‘Invade Brasilia’

155 lbs.: Thiago Moises vs. Melquizael Costa

Thiago Moises (16-6) put his early UFC struggles behind him to win three straight, only to suffer consecutive stoppage losses to Islam Makhachev and Joel Alvarez. Undaunted, he returned to the win column with a bonus-winning first round submission of Christos Giagos in June 2022.
He’s the shorter man by one inch and faces a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage.
Melquizael Costa (19-5) sits at 7-1 since hitting a 1-3 skid, five of those wins coming inside the distance. He last saw action in Nov. 2022, when he knocked out Junior Melo for his 13th career finish.
“Melk” replaces Guram Kutateladze on around two weeks’ notice.
When looking at Moises’ spotty Octagon record, it’s worth remembering that his competition has been ridiculous. Losing to the likes of Makhachev, Alvarez and Beneil Dariush does not a bad fighter make, and though he likely would have come up short against Kutateladze, I like his chances. Costa is a very capable striker with an impressive ability to get back to his feet, but he surrenders takedowns too easily against a jiu-jitsu artist of this caliber.
While Costa has a good shot at scoring the upset if he can keep Moises on the back foot, his kick-heavy approach leaves too many opportunities for the ultra-durable Moises to bring it into his world, and getting out from underneath Moises is a tall task. In the end, Moises wins the all-Brazilian battle with long stretches of top control.
Prediction: Moises via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Championship Doubleheader In Rio!

265 lbs.: Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Jailton Almeida

Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-7) bounced back from an unsuccessful UFC debut by winning five of his next six, among them an impressive knockout of Marcin Tybura. He’s winless since, dropping three straight and suffering through eight fight cancelations in the process.
He gives up three inches of reach to Jailton Almeida (17-2).
Almeida followed his upset submission of Nasrudin Nasrudinov with an even more dominant finish of Danilo Marquez in his UFC debut. He then elected to move up to Heavyweight, where he’s dispatched Parker Porter and Anton Turkalj with similar efficiency.
All of his wins have come inside the distance, 11 by submission.
This is the third time these two have been booked to fight and I don’t like Abdurakhimov’s chances any better than I did the first time around. Even when he wasn’t 41 years old and coming off of three consecutive beatdowns, “Abrek” repeatedly struggled off of his back against far lesser jiu-jitsu artists than Almeida. There’s not a lot he can do to stop Almeida from dragging him to the mat and even less he can do to keep from getting dominated on the ground.
At his very, very best, Abdurakhimov would have an outside chance of clipping Almeida as he rushed into the pocket. It’s been years since that Abdurakhimov stepped into the cage, though, and the outlook looks grim. In short, Almeida takes him down in the first 30 seconds and either taps him or pounds him out.
Prediction: Almeida via first round submission
Related
Watch ‘Countdown To UFC 283’ Video

170 lbs.: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Mounir Lazzez

Gabriel Bonfim (13-0) needed just 79 seconds to choke out Eduardo Garvon and claim LFA’s Welterweight title. The win sent “Marretinha” to Contender Series six months later, resulting in a Von Flue finish of Trey Waters and a UFC contract.
Ten of his 13 finishes have come by submission.
Mounir Lazzez (11-2) defied considerable odds to defeat Abdul Razak Alhassan in his UFC debut, which resulted in a “Fight of the Night” bonus. Though he succumbed to a Warlley Alves body kick his next time out, he returned to the win column by out-dueling Ange Loosa.
He’ll enjoy a four-inch reach advantage.
Bonfim’s boxing offense is genuinely monstrous. He’s got power, speed and he’s got a great jab. What he doesn’t have is great defense — Brenner Alberth nearly knocked him out three fights back, concussing Bonfim enough that he had to withdraw from the tournament despite emerging victorious. On top of that, he had a lot of issues with Waters’ height and reach, which forced him to resort to wrestling.
Lazzez has the edge in reach and the knowledge to use it, meaning Bonfim’s jab won’t be enough to save him. Plus, while Bonfim’s wrestling could be a deciding factor, Lazzez has the gas tank to power through adversity and keep pouring it on late in the fight. I like “The Sniper” to pull the upset.
Prediction: Lazzez via unanimous decision

[hankcream]

Already bet Hill & Moreno, but that nasty gash that Moreno had below his eye in the Kara-France fight has me a bit concerned if Figgy opens that back up it might get ugly.

Why the F is old man Shogun and Ihor the bum on the main card - ESPN & the UFC should be paying us to watch that trash.

[JIBBBY]

Already bet Hill & Moreno, but that nasty gash that Moreno had below his eye in the Kara-France fight has me a bit concerned if Figgy opens that back up it might get ugly.

Why the F is old man Shogun and Ihor the bum on the main card - ESPN & the UFC should be paying us to watch that trash.

Could be a retirement final fight for Shogun. Good for ratings in the aftermath octagon interview on prime time if he's not unconscious still.

[jrgum3]

I locked in my bets on UFC 283 on BOL because they have a free contest where you can win up to $500 in free plays but you have to wager at least $25 on UFC 283 in the sportsbook. You can wager on one fight or several fights but the only thing is they have to be straight bets and not parlays.

Anyway here is my card:
Jamahal Hill ML
Hill/Teixiera o1.5
Brandon Moreno ML
Andrade/Murphy u2.5

Anyway good luck on your plays guys and enjoy the card.

[Demonata]

I'm excited for this card! Let's go hill!

[JC2008]

Could be a retirement final fight for Shogun. Good for ratings in the aftermath octagon interview on prime time if he's not unconscious still.

It is indeed Shogun's retirement fight. Supposedly.

[JIBBBY]

Going with Hill by KO hedged Glover Sub. I really think the fight goes one way or the other. Leaning heavier on the Hill KO. Glover is old as fock and that chin has to be glassy now.

[Kermit]

Got Nunes and Robocop parlayed to both finish their fights.

[jrgum3]

Going with Hill by KO hedged Glover Sub. I really think the fight goes one way or the other. Leaning heavier on the Hill KO. Glover is old as fock and that chin has to be glassy now.

I like that look I think the only way Glover wins is if he can lock in a submission. Otherwise I like Hill by KO as the most likely outcome.

[JIBBBY]

Fading Showgun big time in this next one. When ever a fighter is retiring and announces it they lose.

[JIBBBY]

Fading Showgun big time in this next one. When ever a fighter is retiring and announces it they lose.

Easiest money you will ever make. Load up CASH on all books! That made my night!


See ya showgun and lose that gut.

[boss_of_um]

Easiest money you will ever make. Load up CASH on all books! That made my night!

See ya showgun and lose that gut.

Same! Fading Rua just saved my night! Two nice SGP tickets cashed that needed a 1st round KO/TKO!

[JIBBBY]

Same! Fading Rua just saved my night! Two nice SGP tickets cashed that needed a 1st round KO/TKO!

Yep KO prop was golden!

[Thor4140]

meshia tate was a punching bag to Murphy. what does that say about tates boxing skills

[JIBBBY]

Murphy took a man like beating. DC was ready to shit his pants saying stop the fight.

[Thor4140]

i could watch these two fight three times a year. I like Moreno here. I think he improves every fight. Camp shit is a worry (Kraus) and home field advantage is a worry too. Think Moreno might need another finish cause these guys fight close rounds all the time. This should be great

[JIBBBY]

i could watch these two fight three times a year. I like Moreno here. I think he improves every fight. Camp shit is a worry (Kraus) and home field advantage is a worry too. Think Moreno might need another finish cause these guys fight close rounds all the time. This should be great

Going FIG in Brazil myself. Gonna probably be a close fight either way as usual. Judges may lean Fig if it goes the distance.

[JIBBBY]

FIG's eye is toast, good call THOR. One punch or eye poke is looking like it changed it all.

[JIBBBY]

Punch thumb to the eye. New technique!

Good way to bust up the thumb ligaments though. I've punched hard and only caught the thumb and jacked it bad on a few occasions. MMA gloves protect a little bit from really wrenching that thumb.

[boss_of_um]

So Fig loses and decides to move up because Moreno owns the division for the foreseeable future.

[Kermit]

Brazil fans are the classiest.

[JIBBBY]

Brazilian crowd gonna be ruined if Glover gets slept next. That will be two Brazilian legend fighters getting ruined back to back in the main to close out.

[Thor4140]

Punch thumb to the eye. New technique!

Good way to bust up the thumb ligaments though. I've punched hard and only caught the thumb and jacked it bad on a few occasions. MMA gloves protect a little bit from really wrenching that thumb.

feel like i got robbed cause i wanted two more rounds. Moreno is a flat out stud. Gooffy fuker but that kid improves every fight.

[Kermit]

Brazilian crowd gonna be ruined if Glover gets slept next. That will be two Brazilian legend fighters getting ruined back to back in the main to close out.

Plus they are pissed about Shogun from the prelims.

[Thor4140]

Glover has to stay discipline here cause Hill is hitable. I doubt Hill hits any harder than the 185 champ who trains with Glover. Glover has to use his whole package but i think like when Rumble fought Glover, he makes that one mistake and gets his lights put out. Hill will get beat (because he is hit-able with that chin always hanging out)when he fights the real champ who got dicked in his last fight they called a draw. Heart says Glover wallet says hill

[JIBBBY]

Plus they are pissed about Shogun from the prelims.

I think everyone in Brazil knew fat old Shogun was gonna probably lose. Hey but a Brazilian legend losing in Brazil I'm sure stings a bit anyways.

[JIBBBY]

Hill looks fat and out of shape. He's got a gut. Hmmm?

[Thor4140]

Hill is a good fighter but he isn't beating Magomed Ankalaev no matter how much smoke DC tries to blow up our asses. He gets hit to much. He does have a nice chin but Mag is the better boxer.

[hankcream]

Hill is a good fighter but he isn't beating Magomed Ankalaev no matter how much smoke DC tries to blow up our asses. He gets hit to much. He does have a nice chin but Mag is the better boxer.

I don’t see Ankalaev getting a title shot any time soon. Dana want’s exciting main events and Ankalaev has pissed him off in his last 2 main events.

[JIBBBY]

Glover Tex and Lauren Murphy have absolutely hammered meat faces after the fights, my God!.

Lucky both were pretty ugly to begin with before the fight.

[Thor4140]

I don’t see Ankalaev getting a title shot any time soon. Dana want’s exciting main events and Ankalaev has pissed him off in his last 2 main events.

That last fight he was in was fine and Dana might have had an agenda with that one. How many times we see Iggy have a shitty fight and dana doesnt say dik. That last fight of Anks i have seen a ton way worse. He should be up next and he isnt losing to hill the way he counter punches. They better give Hill someone different and dana prolly knows that