[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 10:00 pm ET
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
Alan Baudot vs. Josh Parisian
Christos Giagos vs. Thiago Moises
Nate Maness vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Chris Curtis vs. Rodolfo Vieira

ESPN2 7:00 pm ET
Tafon Nchukwi vs. Carlos Ulberg
TJ Brown vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Sergey Morozov vs. Raulian Paiva
JP Buys vs. Cody Durden
Mario Bautista vs. Brian Kelleher
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Jinh Yu Frey

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups MMAMANIA -




125 lbs.: J.P. Buys (9-4) vs. Cody Durden (12-4-1)

Three years and an EFC title reign after his unsuccessful first Contender Series appearance, J.P. Buys returned to the program to dominate Jacob Silva and secure a contract. He’s still looking for his first Octagon victory, having fallen to Bruno Silva in his UFC debut and to Montel Jackson in his short-notice sophomore effort.
His 100 percent professional finishing rate features five submissions.
After settling for a draw in his short-notice UFC debut against Chris Gutierrez and falling victim to a flying triangle from Jimmy Flick, Durden finally secured his first UFC victory by out-lasting Aoriqileng at UFC Vegas 46. He then got the honor of welcoming Muhammad Mokaev to the Octagon, resulting in a 58-second submission loss.
He is the taller man by two inches.
His personal drama and recent struggles overshadow the fact that Buys is an extremely talented young man. His UFC debut came against Silva — who’s really come into his own — and he proceeded to face one of the biggest and most powerful Bantamweights in the sport his next time out. This, a clash of similarly sized wrestling specialists, figures to be far more in his wheelhouse.
As potent as Durden’s wrestling is, he gassed badly both times he went past the first round in the Octagon and he’s a lesser scrambler and submission artist than Buys, who’s gone into the championship rounds before. Buys has shown enough heart to convince me that he wears out Durden in a transition-heavy first round before tapping his exhausted foe around the midpoint.
Prediction: Buys via second round submission
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135 lbs.: Brian Kelleher vs. Mario Bautista

Brian Kelleher (24-13) rebounded from consecutive stoppage losses to John Lineker and Montel Jackson by winning five of his next seven, the only defeats in that span coming to division standouts Cody Stamann and Ricky Simon. Umar Nurmagomedov proved a bit too much, however, choking out “Boom” midway through the first round.
He faces a three-inch height disadvantage and a six-inch reach disadvantage.
A “Fight of the Night” war with Jin Soo Son and “Performance of the Night” flying knee finish of Miles Johns left Mario Bautista (9-2) with heaps of momentum, which Trevin Jones quickly extinguished with a comeback knockout. COVID then kept him out of action until Feb. 2022, when he scored a unanimous decision over late replacement, Jay Perrin, in “Sin City.”
He has knocked out, submitted and decisioned three opponents apiece.
Perrin isn’t anybody’s idea of a world-beater, but Bautista showcased a lot of skills in that fight that will serve him well against Kelleher. He landed quality offense at range, refused to be held down, and held his own in the clinch. And seeing as Kelleher is more slugger than technician on the feet and isn’t an overpowering takedown artist, that spells trouble for “Boom.”
The similarly compact Trevin Jones landing a one-hitter quitter on Bautista should give Kelleher some confidence, but so long as Bautista minds his P’s and Q’s and doesn’t get suckered into a phone booth fight, he’s got what it takes to piece up Kelleher for a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Bautista via unanimous decision
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115 lbs.: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Jinh Yu Frey

Though she fell short against Cory McKenna on Contender Series, Vanessa Demopoulos (7-4) got her UFC opportunity one year later on short notice, facing and J.J. Aldrich and dropping a decision. Her next effort saw her come up big, however, as she survived a heavy knockdown to catch Silvana Gomez Juarez in a bonus-winning armbar.
That victory was her fourth by submission and her fifth finish overall.
Former Invicta Atomweight champ, Jinh Yu Frey (11-6), struggled to a winless (0-2) UFC start courtesy of Kay Hansen and Loma Lookboonmee. She’s since found her footing by out-lasting Gloria de Paula and out-slugging Ashley Yoder in successive efforts.
She’ll have a six-inch reach advantage on fight night.
Fighting Demopoulos can be more a test of composure than anything else. She’s genuinely world-class on the mat, but her lack of wrestling and striking means she needs to either pull guard or somehow goad her opponents into taking or following her down if she wants to use it. Frey is uniquely equipped to avoid this danger, being a decent striker, a functional wrestler, and historically reticent to take any sort of risk.
There is, of course, the danger of Demopoulos edging out a stand up battle by out-working Frey, who’s often passive to a fault. Seeing as Frey actually put the pedal to the metal against Yoder, landing more significant strikes than her previous three Octagon efforts combined, that doesn’t seem too terribly likely. In the end, Frey shuts down her wrestling and drills her with straight lefts for a comfortable win.
Prediction: Frey via unanimous decision



205 lbs.: Carlos Ulberg vs. Tafon Nchukwi

City Kickboxing’s Carlos Ulberg (4-1) impressed on Contender Series with a vicious one-punch finish of Bruno Oliveira, but wound up on the wrong end of an equally brutal knockout in his “Fight of the Night” Octagon debut opposite Kennedy Nzechukwu. Then came 11 months on the sidelines, followed by a comfortable decision victory over Fabio Cherant in Houston.
He’ll enjoy four inches of height on Tafon Nchukwi (6-2), though their reaches are identical.
“Da Don” punched his ticket to the Octagon with a head kick knockout of Al Matavao on Contender Series, then cruised past Jamie Pickett for his first UFC victory. He’s 1-3 since, a win over Mike Rodriguez sandwiched between losses to Jun Yong Park and Azamat Murzakanov.
Four of his six wins have come by knockout, each inside of two rounds.
Both of these guys have a lot to prove. Ulberg was successful, but agonizingly dull, against Cherant, who didn’t bother to throw more than three punches per minute, while Nchukwi choked against a gassed Murzakanov. Based on their recent performances, a stand up fight absolutely favors Ulberg. Nchukwi’s just so darn slow that I don’t see him chasing down Ulberg as the latter backs straight up or catching him with a quick counter like Cherant did.
Nchukwi’s secret weapon is his wrestling, especially since nobody’s tested Ulberg’s takedown defense so far. That would require him to actually get his hands on Ulberg, though, which the aforementioned speed discrepancy makes rather difficult. In the end, expect another stinker as Ulberg runs circles around Nchukwi for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Ulberg via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. TJ Brown

A 7-1 run on the Chinese circuit brought Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (37-1) to UFC, where he fell to fast-rising Josh Culibao in his promotional debut. He looked poised for a second straight defeat against Sean Soriano, but leaned on his wrestling to overcome an early deficit and claim a unanimous decision win.
All told, 28 of his 37 professional victories have come inside the distance, 18 via form of knockout.
T.J. Brown (16-8) initially struggled to find his footing in the Octagon, suffering a comeback submission loss to Jordan Griffin and a leg-mangling decision loss to Danny Chavez. He’s gone on to even his UFC record at 2-2 with a narrow decision over Kai Kamaka III and a wider one over Charles Rosa.
“Downtown” stands one inch taller than Shayilan and sports a three-inch reach advantage.
You’ve got to feel for Brown. That’s because all the talent, skill and versatility in the world is shackled to a body made of splintered toothpicks. Luckily, Shayilan doesn’t have the tools to exploit Brown’s lack of durability, being more of a takedown-or-bust sort of fighter who plays right into the wrestling-savvy and scramble-happy hands of Brown. That’s assuming that Brown even wants to grapple with him, as his length and clear edge in striking technique make this a wash on the feet.
Shayilan’s only chance outside of the proverbial puncher’s is to try and grind him out. However, considering how much trouble he had trying to take down Culibao and how long it took him to get his wrestling going against a truly abysmal grappler in Soriano, I don’t see it. In short, Brown pieces him up for a wide decision win.
Prediction: Brown via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Raulian Paiva vs. Sergey Morozov

Getting bounced from the Flyweight division after multiple failed weight cuts didn’t slow down Raulian Paiva (21-4), as he narrowly edged out Kyler Phillips in his UFC Bantamweight debut. He wasn’t quite so fortunate against Sean O’Malley, who battered Paiva in Dec. 2021 to snap the Brazilian’s three-fight win streak.
He boasts two inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach on Sergey Morozov (17-5).
Morozov — the former M-1 Bantamweight champion — put his UFC debut loss to Umar Nurmagomedov behind him to cruise past Khalid Taha. He dominated early in his subsequent bout with Douglas Silva de Andrade, only to succumb to a second-round club-and-sub.
His professional finishes are split 8/3 between knockouts and submissions.
I get that he can’t make the 126-pound limit anymore, but even acknowledging that Paiva just faced a pair of absolute killers back to back, his ceiling at Bantamweight is significantly lower than at Flyweight. A big part of that is his lackadaisical striking defense; though he could power through incoming fire against smaller men, Phillips and O’Malley had his brain pin-balling around the inside of his skull on multiple occasions.
Against a surprisingly capable boxer in Morozov, that’s more than a slight issue. The ground game already favors Morozov, and the huge amount of damage Paiva’s taken of late means I can’t trust him to dominate on the feet, either. Morozov could get clipped, as he did against “D’Silva,” but I like his power and wrestling to carry him to either an early finish or competitive decision.
Prediction: Morozov via unanimous decision

[Brandt Moat]

You rockin' that Dan Frye look alike Avatar Jib Jab? Diggin it. I have a few wagers in on this one. I also like Ulberg. He will overwhelm Da Don on his feet. Da Don will attempt to complete take downs at some point in the fight. These moments are when Ulberg puts his lights out. Carlos by K.O. I like Paiva against Morozov. He has fought the tougher opposition. He has good take down defense. He needs to establish some range early and work off his jab. This might be a boring fight that goes to a decision. I parlayed these two together. GL

[JIBBBY]

You rockin' that Dan Frye look alike Avatar Jib Jab? Diggin it. I have a few wagers in on this one. I also like Ulberg. He will overwhelm Da Don on his feet. Da Don will attempt to complete take downs at some point in the fight. These moments are when Ulberg puts his lights out. Carlos by K.O. I like Paiva against Morozov. He has fought the tougher opposition. He has good take down defense. He needs to establish some range early and work off his jab. This might be a boring fight that goes to a decision. I parlayed these two together. GL

Lol, needed a change up.

[Brandt Moat]

Off subject! Can't let go of mine. She's purty.

[JIBBBY]

Not alot of chicks fighting on this card. That's the way I like it!

[Brandt Moat]

I stay away from betting on them most of the time. I do have Frey on a parlay this card. I lost some doe on Miranda Maverick and decided I wouldn't wager much on women fighters. There is enough variables to take in to account. Then guess if she is on her period or having a girl moment when she just doesn't have her head on at all. No thanks.

[Snowball]

I dunno, not familiar at all with this cast of fighters.

Anyone feel strong on a pick?

[JIBBBY]

I dunno, not familiar at all with this cast of fighters.

Anyone feel strong on a pick?

I'm trying to still cap the fights now. Some more write ups on the main..


HeavyweightJosh Parisian vs. Alan Baudot

Best Win for Parisian? Roque Martinez For Baudot? Yuto Nakajima
Current Streak: Parisian lost his last bout, while Baudot is winless in three trips to the Octagon
X-Factor: This is low-level Heavyweight MMA
How these two match up: This should be on the “Prelims,” but UFC Apex seems to demand at least one crappy Heavyweight bout per main card.
Parisian is a flashy striker who definitely has big power in his hands. Unfortunately, his wrestling hasn’t exactly held up at the UFC level, leaving Parisian struggling to show off the more dangerous aspects of his game. Baudot, meanwhile, has some good technical and rangy Muay Thai, but he’s also struggled with getting stuck on bottom and battered.
Thankfully, neither of these strikers seems all that likely to hold the other down.
Parisian is a big ole’ Heavyweight at 6’4” and 265 pounds, and with 10 knockout wins to his credit, he could definitely end this one early. However, I actually was mildly impressed with what Baudot brought to the table on his feet last time out vs. Parker Porter. He looked genuinely slick and was landing some tricky shots — a technical notch above most random undercard Heavyweights.
Against a more straightforward striker, I expect that technical edge to make the difference.
Prediction: Baudot via decision
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---

Lightweight: Thiago Moises vs. Christos Giagos

Best Win for Moises? Bobby Green For Giagos? Damir Hadzovic
Current Streak: Moises has lost two in a row, and Giagos lost last time out
X-Factor: Can Giagos stop the shot?
How these two match up: This is a quality scrap between skilled 155 pounders.
Moises broke into the rankings briefly on the strength of his jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai. Unfortunately, he couldn’t quite handle the Sambo prowess of Islam Makhachev (can anyone?) nor the size and power of Joel Alvarez, and those to defeats ejected him from that position near the top of the division.
Giagos hasn’t quite been able to string together a win streak bold enough to carry him up the ladder, but he’s proven himself a worthy member of the roster. A skilled wrestler with crafty boxing and footwork, Giagos is a rather tough out for most Lightweights, even if he’s not an overwhelming athlete.
The odds are high this is a competitive, back-and-forth fight, as both men have definite advantages. Moises is the better Muay Thai fighter, but Giagos puts together combinations more effectively. The Brazilian is the slicker submission fighter, but Giagos just might be the better wrestler ...
Since I don’t expect Giagos to be able to hold down his opponent for long periods of time, the deciding factor comes back to athleticism for me. Moises is a few years younger and seems to be the quicker man. If the two are going tit-for-tat, Moises is likely to pull ahead late.
Prediction: Moises via decision
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Bantamweight: Nate Maness vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Best Win for Maness? Tony Gravely For Nurmagomedov? Sergey Morozov
Current Streak: Manness has won three in a row to start his UFC career, while Nurmagomedov is 14-0 with two wins inside the Octagon
X-Factor: Maness sets a really high pace
How these two match up: Bantamweight always provides the scraps.
Maness has been all action throughout three UFC fights. His toughness and ability to push a hard pace proved the deciding factor in his recent bout versus Gravely, taking heavy damage before overwhelming his opponent in the second. Russia’s Nurmagomedov is — surprise! — an excellent wrestler with a smothering top game. He’s finished his last three opponents via rear naked choke, which should give you an indication of his overall fight style.
I really respect Manness’ guts and approach to fighting. Unfortunately, it’s going to be hard to force a pace from bottom position. Nurmagomedov is damn good at shutting down movement and locking in position, which largely eliminates the advantage of a deep gas tank. It’s highly difficult to exhaust an opponent when you’re stuck on bottom, and it doesn’t seem like Manness has the wrestling to deny the initial shots.
Nurmagomedov continues his undefeated run with another strangulation.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via submission
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---

Welterweight: Chris Curtis vs. Rodolfo Vieira

Best Win for Curtis? Brendan Allen For Vieira? Dustin Stoltzfus
Current Streak: Curtis has won two UFC bouts in a row, while Vieira rebounded last time out
X-Factor: Vieira’s gas tank is not to be trusted
How these two match up: This is the night’s purest striker vs. grappler match up.
“The Action Man” fought many excellent opponents for top promotions prior to his UFC debut. Fortunately, all that experience has served him well, as the counter puncher has really thrived since finally joining the roster. He’s comfortable in the cage and plenty powerful, and he seems to have found his home at 185 pounds.
Vieira, meanwhile, is an incredible grappler. He’s legitimately one of the best jiu-jitsu guys on the planet, but he’s still undergoing mixed martial arts (MMA) growing pains. Still, his last fight was a promising development, as the Brazilian showed some improved boxing and three rounds worth of cardio.
Curtis is going to need an absolutely incredible performance to win this fight. Vieira is the far larger and stronger man, and Curtis has always struggled with opponents determined to take him down. In short, Vieira is going to get him down early, and when that happens, Vieira typically dominates.
Curtis’ path to victory is to survive long stretches in miserable positions, eventually get back up, and then capitalize upon his opponent’s fatigue ... if Vieira’s gas tank indeed remains a liability. The situation would have to align perfectly, and the odds of an earlier submission just seem more likely.
Though, keep in mind, I’ve been wrong about Curtis’ last two outcomes as well.
Prediction: Vieira via submission

[Brandt Moat]

Carlos Ulberg is my choice. About even money. Far better striker. Has issues with gas tank. Goes crazy with his kickboxing and gases. Should be able to defend take downs of the Da Don. This match up should be entertaining.

I dunno, not familiar at all with this cast of fighters.

Anyone feel strong on a pick?

[JIBBBY]

I think Gamrot is a live dog in this one. I'm gonna try it at those odds.

[Headsterx]

I think Gamrot is a live dog in this one. I'm gonna try it at those odds.

Why wait for live? I like him at +220 but if Taz takes control early with tds then I don’t think Gamrot wins.

[JC2008]

I think Gamrot is a live dog in this one. I'm gonna try it at those odds.

I'm considering taking Gamrot KO or Dec and a parlay with Tsarukyan and a Boxing fight decision prop.

[Snowball]

Carlos Ulberg is my choice. About even money. Far better striker. Has issues with gas tank. Goes crazy with his kickboxing and gases. Should be able to defend take downs of the Da Don. This match up should be entertaining.

Ulberg wouldn't bump his fist
there is tension

[Snowball]

Demopoulos at 2/1 might be worth a shot

[Snowball]

ok I'm in. Bets:

Bautista -190 over Kelleher
Morozov -160 over Paiva
Parisian -115 over Baudot
Durden -105 over Buys
Vieira +100 over Curtis
Ulberg +125 over Nchukwi
Demopoulos +200 over Frey
Giagos +210 over Moises
Rakhmanov vs. Magny Go the Distance No -240
Nurmagomedov vs. Maness Go the Distance No -210
Ugberg vs. Nchukwi Go the Distance No -180
4-team: Giagos, Morozov, Bautista, Demopoulos +2207

[JIBBBY]

Why wait for live? I like him at +220 but if Taz takes control early with tds then I don’t think Gamrot wins.

When I said a live dog I ment he could win the fight. Just a term used. I'm not betting live in this event. At +220 I'm in with the straight bet.

Like this dog could bark is another term for this underdog fighter could win this fight!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Looking forward to Rakhmanov vs Magny.

Magny is a durable guy and a good test for the undefeated Rakhmanov.

Rakhmanov is 15-0 with 15 finishes, can he add Magny to the list?

[JIBBBY]

Looking forward to Rakhmanov vs Magny.

Magny is a durable guy and a good test for the undefeated Rakhmanov.

Rakhmanov is 15-0 with 15 finishes, can he add Magny to the list?

Magny is gonna get grounded and smoked. Don't do it.

[JC2008]

Anyone betting on Curtis decision should know it's sitting at +2200 on Bet365.

[stevex]

Magny is gonna get grounded and smoked. Don't do it.

Rakhmanov has to lose at some point. Magny is worth a shot here in my opinion.

[WRMusic]

Anyone betting on Curtis decision should know it's sitting at +2200 on Bet365.

That was such a random post, posted so early before that specific fight. Then the fight turns out exactly this way. I hope you laid a nice chunk of $ on that!!! Great call. Wow.

[JC2008]

That was such a random post, posted so early before that specific fight. Then the fight turns out exactly this way. I hope you laid a nice chunk of $ on that!!! Great call. Wow.

Thank you, Sir. I usually never post my wagers because I'm superstitious and it always seems to give me the opposite effect. If I say I bet on Fighter A then Fighter B usually wins lol. Hopefully I was able to help people out.

[JIBBBY]

Rakhmanov has to lose at some point. Magny is worth a shot here in my opinion.

We will see? I'm going the other way ITD. I think Magny gets stopped here.

[Kermit]

We will see? I'm going the other way ITD. I think Magny gets stopped here.

I'm with you.

[JIBBBY]

I'm with you.

Cash it Kermy!

I loved this bet. I bet this on every book I'm on. Magny getting old and a journeyman now and can't hang with this level of grappler and got rag dolled and sub'd out.

[hankcream]

Holy F!ck, Shavkat is a beast. I’m up pretty good on this card so going for a cherry on top.
2 units Gamrot +225

[JIBBBY]

Hell of a fight. I'd hate to judge this one.

[JIBBBY]

YES!! WOW.. I'm not sure about that but that DOGGY hit and barked!

[stevex]

Cash it Kermy!

I loved this bet. I bet this on every book I'm on. Magny getting old and a journeyman now and can't hang with this level of grappler and got rag dolled and sub'd out.

Lol. You love a -550 favorite? Keep up with those big favs and you’ll be broke.

[JIBBBY]

Lol. You love a -550 favorite? Keep up with those big favs and you’ll be broke.

ITD and SUB was not at -550 with those props if you even know what those are? Please try again and look up those prop values. I did not bet that fight straight you hater..

I cleaned up on this event and loving it, that's why I'm posting on this thread after the event which I usually don't do!!

[povis]

By today's criteria, Valentina Shevchenko should have lost her title fight. Don't mind Gamrot winning he's a beast and he did well today but decision is definitely debatable. In some fights judges dismiss grappling exchanges if they not dominant other times it's almost impossible to win round back if you lost minute or so on mat regardless of the action on the feet. It's just frustrating when you don't know what the fu*k judges are looking at.

[Allure]

Shavkat is a big problem for the WW division. He's also only 27 years old. Future champ No doubt.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Shavkat is a big problem for the WW division. He's also only 27 years old. Future champ No doubt.

Agreed. I thought Magny might give him a challenge but he had nothing for Shavkat.

[Brandt Moat]

Boom hope ya bet these!

ok I'm in. Bets:

Bautista -190 over Kelleher
Morozov -160 over Paiva
Parisian -115 over Baudot
Durden -105 over Buys
Vieira +100 over Curtis
Ulberg +125 over Nchukwi
Demopoulos +200 over Frey
Giagos +210 over Moises
Rakhmanov vs. Magny Go the Distance No -240
Nurmagomedov vs. Maness Go the Distance No -210
Ugberg vs. Nchukwi Go the Distance No -180
4-team: Giagos, Morozov, Bautista, Demopoulos +2207