[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev
Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell
Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira
Greg Hardy vs. Serghei Spivac

ESPN 8:00 pm ET
Jailin Turner vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Marina Rodriguez vs. Yan Xiaonan
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Nick Negumereanu
Mariya Agapova vs. Maryna Moroz

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Brian Kelleher vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Tim Elliott vs Tagir Ulanbekov
Ludovit Klein vs Devonte Smith
Dustin Jacoby vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

[hankcream]

Early dog leans:
Elliot, Olekijusuk, Mullarkey, Hardy, Barbosa, Masvidal

[Jaycee Harland]

I think bad matchup for Gamebred. Covington has the ability to take Masvidal down and Masvidal hasnt shown the ability to deal with that.

If were talking about who Id rather hang with, Masvidal would be around -2500, but were not. CC at -280 or nothing for me.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

I think bad matchup for Gamebred. Covington has the ability to take Masvidal down and Masvidal hasnt shown the ability to deal with that.

If were talking about who Id rather hang with, Masvidal would be around -2500, but were not. CC at -280 or nothing for me.

Here is what he did to the last guy who was going to take him down...

[Jaycee Harland]

Covington isnt "dadbod" Askren. He took down Robbie Lawler about 20 times.

[magpie878]

The last guy who was going to take him down was Usman. And he did, easily.

Then in the rematch, knocked him the F out without needing to take him down.

Colby should win this, and easily.

[Brandt Moat]

I'm not ready to give up on Edson. Since moving down in weight he faced 2 real tough foes. Take a minute and review his work in the lightweight division. He moved down and faced Ige 1st fight. If he has a good cut and looks good, I'm in on him at plus money. Dudes a true warrior. Not sure the slack jaw kid should be favorite. We'll see. GL

[Thrilla]

[frankieunits2685]

I'm not ready to give up on Edson. Since moving down in weight he faced 2 real tough foes. Take a minute and review his work in Welterweight. He moved down and faced Ige 1st fight. If he has a good cut and looks good, I'm in on him at plus money. Dudes a true warrior. Not sure the slack jaw kid should be favorite. We'll see. GL

Barboza/Ige fight was at featherweight.

[JIBBBY]

Masvidal is gonna get put on his back the entire fight. Covington by Decision is my best guess.

[JIBBBY]

Prelims - MMA MANIA





145 lbs.: Brian Kelleher vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Brian Kelleher (24-12) went from dropping three of five to winning five of his last seven, those defeats coming against division standouts Cody Stamann and Ricky Simon. His current two-fight streak features dominant decisions over Domingo Pilarte and Kevin Croom, the latter less than two months back.
“Boom” has earned five post-fight bonuses in the Octagon and 18 professional stoppages overall.
Umar Nurmagomedov (13-0) cut his teeth in top promotions like Fight Nights Global and PFL en route to signing with the world’s largest fight promotion in 2020. Various issues have held him to just one fight in the last two years, a Jan. 2021 submission of Sergey Morozov.
He’ll have two inches of height and four inches of reach on Kelleher.
This is the most lopsided fight on the card in the eyes of the bookies, and while I don’t necessarily disagree that Nurmagomedov will dominate, it’s a fight with some landmines in it. Kelleher has two key weapons that could give Nurmagomedov issues: relentless pressure and a solid guillotine, both of which are potential counters to Nurmagomedov’s blend of high-volume kicking and lethal wrestling.
“Potential” is doing a lot of work, though. Kelleher has consistently struggled to walk down high-level strikers or land that choke against more powerful wrestlers. So long as Nurmagomedov stays sharp and doesn’t make any sloppy level changes, he should piece up Kelleher at range and put him on his back any time he gets some momentum going.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Tim Elliott vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

The Octagon return of Tim Elliott (17-12-1) failed to produce immediate success, dropping five of his first seven in his second run. He rebounded with wins over Ryan Benoit and Jordan Espinosa, only to fall just short against Matheus Nicolau in his most recent effort.
He faces a four-inch reach disadvantage.
Tagir Ulanbekov (13-1) powered through some gnarly leg kicks to defeat Bruno Silva in his UFC debut, only for assorted misfortunes to keep him out of action for the next year. He returned to action in Oct. 2021, narrowly edging out Allan Nascimento in an excellent back-and-forth grappling war.
All seven of his professional finishes have come by submission.
This figures to go a lot like Ulanbekov’s fight with Nascimento. As the stronger, more technically sound wrestler, he’ll be the one dictating whether the fight takes place on the feet or the mat. While Elliott’s no slouch in that department, he’s proven unable to consistently overpower higher-level takedown artists.
The question, then, is whether Elliott can finish Ulanbekov off his back, sweep with any regularity, or do what Nascimento nearly did and outwork the oft-passive Ulanbekov. The last one seems feasible, but the near-disaster against Nascimento should prompt Ulanbekov to be a bit busier. Between his strong wrestling, crisp striking and ironclad submission defense, expect Ulanbekov to cruise to victory.
Prediction: Ulanbekov via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Devonte Smith vs. Ludovit Klein

Devonte Smith (11-3) followed his dominant Contender Series victory with first-round knockouts of Julian Erosa and Dong Hyun Ma, the latter of which earned Smith “Performance of the Night.” He has since dropped two of three, a (technical) knockout of Justin Jaynes sandwiched between stoppage losses to Khama Worthy and Jamie Mullarkey.
His 11 professional finishes include 10 by form of knockout.
Ludovit Klein (17-4) entered the Octagon on the heels of two consecutive knockout wins, then made it three straight by smashing Shane Young in his promotional debut. Then came a controversial decision loss to Mike Trizano, followed be a decidedly non-controversial submission defeat at the hands of Nate Landwehr.
He steps in for the injured Erick Gonzalez on a week’s notice.
Smith vs. Gonzalez was my favorite sort of match up to predict, namely one I didn’t have to think too hard about. Smith would have annihilated “Ghost Pepper” within a few minutes, while Klein figures to give him a legitimate challenge. Smith isn’t the sort of furious pressure fighter that’s vexed Klein in recent years, while Klein doesn’t figure to suffocate Smith’s offense the way Mullarkey did.
As enormously high as I was on Klein when he first entered the Octagon, I like Smith’s chances here. His size and long-range punching should give Klein issues, especially if he can keep the Slovakian on the back foot. I’ll be pulling for Klein, as I really want to see him succeed, but his complete inability to keep the very limited Landwehr off of him doesn’t give me hope. In short, Smith clips him sometime in the first.
Prediction: Smith via first round knockout
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205 lbs.: Dustin Jacoby vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

More than eight years after leaving the Octagon on a loss to Chris Camozzi, Dustin Jacoby (16-5-1) claimed his first victory in the promotion by beating down Justin Ledet in a half-round. He’s unbeaten since, winning three and forcing a draw with Ion Cutelaba along the way.
He’ll enjoy three inches of height and two inches of reach over Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-4).
Oleksiejczuk saw his early UFC momentum blunted by a pair of submission losses to Ovince Saint Preux and Jimmy Crute. Though he was fortunate to get the judges’ nod against Modestas Bukauskas, there was no questioning his uppercut knockout of Shamil Gamzatov seven months later.
He’s ended 11 professional fights inside the distance, 10 via (technical) knockout.
Even putting aside the instinct to automatically pick Jacoby in a pure striking battle, this looks plenty winnable for him. Powerful as he is, Oleksiejczuk is just too damn one-note with his pressure-heavy offense, especially since he lacks the cage-cutting skills to make it work against more seasoned strikers. He’ll have all sorts of trouble corralling Jacoby, who will be tearing up his legs and plunking him with counters the whole time.
The fact that Jacoby threw more than 300 strikes against another come-forward bruiser in John Allan suggests that Oleksiejczuk can’t expect him to fade late, either. “The Hanyak” tears up Oleksieczjuk off the back foot for either a wide decision or accumulation finish.
Prediction: Jacoby via unanimous decision




155 lbs.: Jalin Turner vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Misfortune for Jalin Turner (11-5) didn’t end with Contender Series foe Max Mustaki breaking his foot, as he subsequently dropped two of his first three in the Octagon. “The Tarantula” has since found his footing with three destructive finishes, among them a four-minute submission of unbeaten prospect Uros Medic.
All of his professional wins have come inside the distance, eight of them via knockout.
Jamie Mullarkey (14-4) — the former Superfight MMA champion — followed his “Fight of the Night” debut war against Brad Riddell with a controversial decision loss to Fares Ziam. He took the judges out of the equation in later efforts by violently knocking out heavy hitters Khama Worthy and Devonte Smith.
He gives up three inches of height and reach to Turner.
This will be the third time in a row that Mullarkey’s had to face a tall, rangy power-puncher. This might be some favoritism on my part, but I see this one going more poorly than the first two. Though there’s every possibility that Mullarkey leans on his concrete chin to just bully his way inside and clip “The Tarantula,” his shaky defense will subject him to possibly the heaviest shots he’s yet faced. Turner’s also shown significant improvement in his ground game, so Mullarkey can’t necessarily lean on his wrestling to neutralize him.
I just don’t see Turner folding the way Smith did, and if he lands those same sorts of punches, Mullarkey’s in trouble. In the end, a long-range onslaught carries Turner to his first decision victory.
Prediction: Turner via unanimous decision
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115 lbs.: Marina Rodriguez vs. Yan Xiaonan

Marina Rodriguez’s (15-1-2) knockout on Contender Series: Brazil earned her a spot in the Octagon, where she went unbeaten in four fights before falling to Carla Esparza by split decision. Her subsequent three-fight win streak includes a bonus-winning knockout of Amanda Ribas and an upset decision over Mackenzie Dern in her second UFC main event.
She has knocked out six professional foes and submitted one other.
Team Alpha Male’s Yan Xiaonan (13-2) brawled her way to a perfect (6-0) UFC start, which included decisions over Randa Markos and Claudia Gadelha. Then came the aforementioned Esparza, who put away “Nine”with ground-and-pound midway through the second round.
She stands one inch shorter than Rodriguez and gives up two inches of reach.
Honestly, I wouldn’t have minded this being the Featured “Prelims” bout. This is a clash of two skilled, aggressive, high-output strikers who won’t have to worry about defending takedowns for once. Hell, I’d argue this deserved main card status over Spivak vs. Hardy.
Nevertheless, as dangerous as Yan is, there just seems to be so much more to Rodriguez’s game. More power, more variety at range, more skills in the clinch. Yan’s speed and resilience do pose a threat, but Rodriguez is plenty quick herself and can match her output. In short, she out-skills a game Yan for a competitive but decisive victory.
Prediction: Rodriguez via unanimous decision
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205 lbs.: Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu

Two years after an unsuccessful UFC debut against Sergey Spivak, Nicolae Negumereanu (11-1) returned to action with an upset decision over Contender Series graduate, Aleksei Camur. He was even more successful against Ike Villanueva, knocking “Hurricane” out just 78 seconds into the first round.
Six of his 10 finishes have come in the first round.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-2) put a UFC debut loss to Paul Craig behind him to win three straight, including bonus-winning knockouts of Carlos Ulberg and Danilo Marques. The momentum wasn’t to last, as he suffered a knockout loss of his own to Da Un Jung in Nov. 2021.
He steps in for Contender Series veteran, Ihor Poteria, on around one month’s notice.
This fight really just boils down to whether the Jung fight irreparably damaged Nzechukwu’s chin. If he’s at 100 percent, there’s no reason he should lose this — he’s miles better than Negumereanu in terms of technical striking and has the cardio to match or exceed the Romanian’s output from bell to bell. He has to survive his customary slow start, though, and that’s not as much of a given as it was a few months ago.
Negumereanu’s raw aggression and persistence with his takedowns make both an early finish and a grinding decision possible, but it just seems far more likely that Nzechukwu makes the most of his height and reach advantage to potshot his way to victory. In short, “African Savage” leans on volume to dig his way out of an early deficit and claim the win.
Prediction: Nzechukwu via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Maryna Moroz vs. Mariya Agapova

Maryna Moroz (10-3) started her UFC career at Strawweight, winning three of four before suffering consecutive decision losses. This prompted a move to 125 pounds, where she’s scored impressive upset victories over Sabina Mazo and Mayra Bueno Silva.
This marks her first appearance in nearly two years, as she withdrew from four separate bouts in that span.
Mariya Agapova (10-2) went though one of the Octagon’s fastest rises and falls in recent memory, following a one-sided debut finish of Hannah Cifers with a disastrous upset loss to Shana Dobson. She looked better than ever in her 2021 return, however, as she battered the aforementioned Mazo en route to a third-round club-and-sub.
Her eight finishes are split 3/5 between knockouts and submissions.
The Agapova that ran over Mazo is a huge problem for most of the division. She looked composed, patient, powerful and remarkably technical in dismantling a very skilled striker. If she puts forth that sort of effort here, it’s her fight to lose. Indeed, Moroz is on the wrong end of power and volume discrepancies on the feet, and that’s not even taking the rust into account.
She has to keep her emotions in check, however, and that might be easier said than done. The back-and-forth between these two went way over the line. Moroz is skilled enough to punish an overzealous Agapova with either grappling or boxing, especially if the latter burns through her cardio again. That Mazo win was impressive enough to earn my confidence, but don’t be surprised if things go off the rails.
Prediction: Agapova via second round technical knockout

[Brandt Moat]

Correct I fixed it.

Barboza/Ige fight was at featherweight.

[Allure]

Not much interest here, huh? As much as I want Masvidal to win I don't see it happening. At all. But apparently he just signed a new deal with the UFC, so good for him. But man would it be nice to see Masvidal putting Colby to sleep, however I just don't see it happening.
If Khamzat makes it past Burns, Khamzat vs Colby would be a banger.

[JIBBBY]

Edson Barboza and RDA could be live dogs on this card? Any thoughts?

[Pinoy-T-X]

Edson Barboza and RDA could be live dogs on this card? Any thoughts?

RDA is favored. He is fighting Moicano on five day notice.

[JIBBBY]

RDA is favored. He is fighting Moicano on five day notice.

Got it.. Yep.

[Brandt Moat]

Khamzat must be messed up. He was pulled from rankings. Is this true? Not sure what to believe any longer. I was looking forward to see who stops this guy.

[Brandt Moat]

I like Jalin Turner. Mularky is just that mularky. He gets hit way to much to take these shots. Will take Jalin to win by KO,TKO or DQ. My heavy lean is Barbosa. He has the credentials to cruise in this one. Every time I'm this confident I'm wrong. I will tread a bit light on it because of my excessive confidence. Can't wait til this whole feud between friends crap is over. If they don't come out with bad intentions towards one another in the opening 10 seconds, the shiot is all a stunt. Fook both those pucies for doing all the shiot talkin and come out with a pillow fight. I will take Colby by Finish. Mildly like Holland. Will use him and RDA in parlays. Not that bad of a card. Some really good stuff just around the corner. GL

[magpie878]

Khamzat must be messed up. He was pulled from rankings. Is this true? Not sure what to believe any longer. I was looking forward to see who stops this guy.

UFC's site shows Chimaev at #11.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Colby wins 95% of the time...Masvidal only chance is a KO

[Brandt Moat]

Sweet! Hope he is fully recovered. Not many top guys want a piece of him.

UFC's site shows Chimaev at #11.

[Thor4140]

Khamzat must be messed up. He was pulled from rankings. Is this true? Not sure what to believe any longer. I was looking forward to see who stops this guy.

i think he is fighting on the ufc 273 card agains Burns. I sure hope so cause i will be there and am not a big fan of the card. that will diff make up for it tho. Zombie getting hurt and Max stepping in would be a nice help also.

[Thor4140]

i would be all over Barbosa in this one. i think he won 4 out of his last five against tuff guys but got literally screwed with shady decisions against Ige and Felder. Unfortunately this is the problem. A guy we all love to bet going the full three rounds and than getting screwed by the judges. i will pass.

[JIBBBY]

Jibs MMA betting teaching lesson. Bash it or take it in I don't care....

Years ago betting MMA fighters were not as well rounded and I could REALLY pick em. I made a ton of money betting MMA in the early years.

Then we had the new generation of MMA fighters coming up, training at developed gyms. I began to struggle betting MMA because the new generation of fighters became so well rounded.

I adjusted my betting style and tweaked it but still kept in mind the fighters strengths.

My approach now is Hedge on the fighters strengths both ways if the odds dictate that.
Also if you see a fight where the odds are jacked one way then just take the dog ITD. You just need one of those ITD dogs to hit once in a while to really clean up.

My two cents. I still bet the entire cards and all fights and more often then not I still come out ahead betting MMA. It's not like the old days though.

[BIGDAY]

Wrastlers Rule. Colby easy.

[JIBBBY]

Wrastlers Rule. Colby easy.

If Masvidal can keep it standing Colby will get dropped. Usman said Masvidal has good wrestling defense and popped back up when he fought him.

I think Masvidal has a real chance in this one if he doesn't stay grounded.

[JIBBBY]

Game time.. GL everyone!! .....

[Kermit]

Got Smith ITD

[chase1]

Nice win by Jacoby. Had to grind it out with hardly any leg kicks.

I'm on Smith too. Let's get it!

[adila1401]

glgl boys

[frankieunits2685]

Smith really struggling against the fence.

[chase1]

Yeah not looking too good for Smith. Kelin controlling the octagon

[RussianMike]

Masvidal is gonna get put on his back the entire fight. Covington by Decision is my best guess.

No doubt about it, this is one of those matchups where anybody betting CC might as well parlay it w the Over or Decision, and Gamebread w the ITD or Under. Difficult to see it going any other way.

[RussianMike]

If Masvidal can keep it standing Colby will get dropped. Usman said Masvidal has good wrestling defense and popped back up when he fought him.

I think Masvidal has a real chance in this one if he doesn't stay grounded.

At those odds how do you not take a flier on Masvidal by KO? Emotionally set matchup that can get anybody to slip up and get caught by an unconventional fighter. No brainer here.

[RussianMike]

But what about RDA? Getting punchy like Jim Miller became past few years. Not sure what I'm getting here. Over the hill?