1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis (February 20, 2021)



    ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
    Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis
    Ketlen Vieira vs. Yana Kunitskaya
    Darrick Minner vs. Charles Rosa
    Chris Daukaus vs. Aleksei Oleinik
    Rafael Alves vs. Pat Sabatini
    Andrei Arlovski vs. Tom Aspinall

    ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
    Nassourdine Imavov vs. Phil Hawes
    Danny Chavez vs. Jared Gordon
    Drakkar Klose vs. Luis Pena
    John Castaneda vs. Eddie Wineland
    Julian Erosa vs. Nate Landwehr
    Shana Dobson vs. Casey O’Neill
    Drako Rodriguez vs. Aiemann Zahabi
    Serghei Spivac vs. Jared Vanderaa
    Jamall Emmers vs. Chas Skelly


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  2. #2
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Thanks as always Locky!
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  3. #3
    Demonata
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    Decent card!!!!

  4. #4
    Thor4140
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    Geez Sabatini first fight in ufc and the favorite isn’t 3 or 4 to 1?

  5. #5
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thor4140 View Post
    Geez Sabatini first fight in ufc and the favorite isn’t 3 or 4 to 1?
    What? No. Why would he be?
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  6. #6
    hankcream
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    Should have bet Landwehr earlier when he was + money, I'm thinking line keeps moving so 3.3 units on The Train -110

  7. #7
    WolfTicketDealer
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    Think the old man Arlovski has some value at the current price. Only been KO'd once in the past 4 years and has faced some punchers in that time (Walt Harris, Tuivasa, who did knock AA down). Also have to consider the level of competition/punching power that did finish Arlovski since his second UFC stint (Rozenstruick, Ngannou, Overeem, Stipe). Meanwhile, all of Aspinall's wins are in R1 and I think it'll be a serious sweat for any Aspinall backers if he doesn't get an early finish.
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  8. #8
    Thor4140
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    What? No. Why would he be?
    My bad i thought the guy he was fighting had a couple ufc wins
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  9. #9
    hankcream
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    Just a little Covid info to ponder. Erosa & Blaydes both got Covid, not sure what Hawes had but he had to pull out of his last scheduled fight due to some injury. Erosa had a bad case and had a tough recovery, not sure about Blaydes. Apparently there is something about the DNA of people of color that they are affected worse by Covid & it's uncertain what long term affects it may have link

  10. #10
    Pinoy-T-X
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    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Just a little Covid info to ponder. Erosa & Blaydes both got Covid, not sure what Hawes had but he had to pull out of his last scheduled fight due to some injury. Erosa had a bad case and had a tough recovery, not sure about Blaydes. Apparently there is something about the DNA of people of color that they are affected worse by Covid & it's uncertain what long term affects it may have link
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ovid-19-a.html

  11. #11
    WolfTicketDealer
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    Minner RD 1 Sub is absurdly priced (+1000) at multiple books. It's by far his most likely path to victory.
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  12. #12
    JIBBBY
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    Prelim write ups -






    145 lbs.: Nate Landwehr vs. Julian Erosa

    Nate Landwehr (14-3) brought a seven-fight win streak and the M-1 Featherweight title with him when he entered the Octagon last year, though neither were enough to save him from a vicious Herbert Burns knee. A hard-fought decision over Darren Elkins put him in the win column four months later, though COVID-19 wound up scrapping a subsequent pair of fights in Sept. and Dec. 2020.
    “The Train” gives up four inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach to “Juicy J.”
    Two years after exiting the Octagon with a 1-1 record, Julian Erosa (24-8) fought his way back into the promotion with a highlight-reel knockout on “Contender Series,” only to lose three straight and exit the UFC once again. He returned to form in Feb. 2020 with a submission on the regional circuit, then stepped up on short notice to tap Sean Woodson with a comeback “Performance of the Night” D’arce choke.
    Twenty one of his professional wins have come inside the distance, 11 of them by form of submission.
    Erosa’s remarkable height and length for the division will always be undercut by his willingness to discard them in favor of slugging it out, and his four professional knockout losses have yet to make him realize that he’s just not durable enough to do that. Landwehr, by contrast, absolutely thrives in furious close-quarters exchanges; unless Erosa finally figures out that he’s supposed to fight long, there’s nothing stopping Landwehr from simply marching into the pocket and trading heat until Erosa drops.
    That’s not to say that Erosa is totally doomed, as Landwehr is vulnerable to head kicks, but “The Train’s” relentlessness and takedown attack should be enough to neutralize Erosa’s more dangerous bits of offense. Landwehr wears him down for a late finish in a bloody war.
    Prediction: Landwehr by third-round technical knockout
    Related
    Up Next! ‘Blaydes Vs Lewis’ In Las Vegas!

    145 lbs.: Chas Skelly vs. Jamall Emmers

    Chas Skelly (18-3) followed a UFC debut loss to Mirsad Bektic with wins in six of his next seven fights, only to get stopped by Jason Knight and suffer a controversial no contest against Bobby Moffett. His next effort saw a return to form, however, as he took a gritty unanimous decision over Jordan Griffin in Vancouver.
    This marks his first fight since Sept. 2019, as two separate attempts to face Grant Dawson fell through last year.
    Jamall Emmers (18-5) put a “Contender Series” knockout loss to Julian Erosa behind him with four consecutive stoppage victories, only to drop a narrow split decision to late replacement Giga Chikadze in his Octagon debut. He was slated to welcome Timur Valiev to the Octagon his next time out, but instead took a dominant decision over another late-notice foe in Vince Cachero.
    He has ended 10 of his wins inside the distance, seven of them via knockout.
    Saying it’s “someone’s fight to lose” is an awful tautological cliché, but it’s actually valid for Emmers in this case. “Pretty Boy” is a top-flight wrestler with the scrambling skills to avoid Skelly’s lethal choke game and gets stronger as the fight goes on, while we’ve seen Skelly burn himself out on multiple occasions in high-paced engagements; by all rights, Emmers should be able to use his speed to win the striking and either shut down or control any grappling engagements. That said, both the Erosa and Chikadze losses were the entirely avoidable byproduct of poor game planning, so his knack for self-sabotage isn’t to be underestimated.
    Of course, said “poor game planning” was Emmers electing to trade strikes for too long, and since that’s his actual path to victory here, things should work out. Unless he decides to try and go front-choke-for-front-choke with “The Scrapper, he finds his footing after a rough first round and takes over down the stretch with long-range kickboxing.
    Prediction: Emmers via unanimous decision
    Related
    UFC Vegas 19 Poster For ‘Blaydes Vs Lewis’

    125 lbs.: Shana Dobson vs. Casey O’Neill

    Though Roxanne Modafferi ended her The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 run in just 97 seconds, Shana Dobson (4-4) returned at the Finale to knockout the more experienced Ariel Beck. Three straight losses followed, including a one-punch knockout courtesy of Priscila Cachoeira, but Dobson ended 2020 strong with a colossal upset of Mariya Agapova.
    Two of her four professional wins have come by form of knockout.
    After losing her Eternal MMA Strawweight title on the scale, Casey O’Neill (5-0) moved up to Flyweight, successfully debuting in Feb. 2020 with a dominant decision over Caitlin McEwen. She then took her talents to UAE Warriors, where she pounded out Christina Stelliou seven months later.
    She went 5-2 as an amateur before debuting in 2019.
    Dobson deserves all the credit in the world for withstanding Agapova’s initial blitz and ultimately turning the tables, but that doesn’t change the fact that she’s outgunned here. Her literal 0 percent Octagon takedown defense is a death flag against a grappler of this caliber, and O’Neill’s sharp enough to hold her own even if she gives Dobson the sort of stand up war she craves.
    To make matters worse for Dobson, O’Neill is far better at managing her energy than Agapova, so “Danger” can’t bank on “King” fading late. As soon as O’Neill gets her hands on Dobson, she’ll put her through Hell on the mat. The only question is how long Dobson can survive.
    Prediction: O’Neill via first-round submission
    Related
    Midnight Mania! Blaydes Vs. ‘Beast’ Rebooked For Feb. 20

    135 lbs.: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Drako Rodriguez

    Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) — brother of legendary trainer Firas Zahabi — entered UFC with six first-round finishes under his belt and enjoyed a successful debut against Reginaldo Vieira. He has yet to taste victory since, suffering a knockout loss to Ricardo Ramos and subsequent decision loss to Vince Morales.
    This will be his first fight in 21 months and just his second in the last three years.
    Wins in his first three King of the Cage appearances led Drako Rodriguez (7-1) to a title fight against future UFC competitor Tony Gravely, who overpowered him with wrestling for a late finish. Three fights later, he took on prospect Mana Martinez on the Contender Series, catching him in a contract-winning triangle choke midway through the first round.
    He went undefeated (13-0) as an amateur before turning pro in 2017.
    This would be a difficult task for Zahabi even at the best of times because he lacks the wrestling to grind down Rodriguez the way Gravely did and doesn’t seem to have a notable edge on the feet. To defeat a well-rounded, well-seasoned finisher like Rodriguez after such a layoff looks to be beyond the Canadian’s capabilities.
    Zahabi’s got a chin on him and Rodriguez is willing to chase subs off of his back, so the former surviving on the feet and leaning on top control to eke out a decision isn’t totally out of the question. It is, however, far likelier that Rodriguez lands the heavier shots and dictates the ground exchanges to claim a debut victory.
    Prediction: Rodriguez via unanimous decision
    Related
    Watch UFC Live Stream On ESPN+

    265 lbs.: Serghei Spivac vs. Jared Vanderaa

    Serghei Spivac (11-2) rebounded from a knockout loss in his UFC debut with an upset submission of Tai Tuivasa, but couldn’t do the same to Marcin Tybura his next time out. Five months later, he successfully returned to action with a decision over then-unbeaten Carlos Felipe on “Fight Island.”
    He has ended 10 professional fights inside the distance, six of them by submission.
    Jared Vanderaa (11-4) knocked out UFC veteran Ruan Potts to claim an EFC Heavyweight title, which he defended with a knockout of Ricky Misholas. After splitting his next two bouts, he joined “Contender Series,” where he pounded out late replacement Harry Hunsucker to claim a contract.
    “The Mountain” stands one inch taller than Spivac and will have a two-inch reach advantage.
    Don’t come in expecting fireworks from Vanderaa — he’s as lumbering as that nickname would suggest and isn’t much of a factor on the feet, making Spivac the clear winner in a kickboxing match. Where he shines is with his ground-and-pound, and as the considerably larger man, he’ll really only need one takedown to get Spivac out of there.
    The question, then, is whether he can get it. I’ll say “probably.” That’s because Spivac was out-wrestled by Tybura and generally isn’t afraid to initiate the grappling. In the end, Vanderaa trips him down sometime in the first round and rains down punches for the finish.
    Prediction: Vanderaa via first-round technical knockout



    185 lbs.: Phil Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov

    After several early-career struggles, including a knockout loss to Julian Marquez on “Contender Series,” Phil Hawes (9-2) finally punched his ticket to the Octagon with a 78-second wipeout of Khazhimurat Bestaev. His debut proved even more dominant, flattening Aussie prospect Jacob Malkoun in just 18 seconds.
    All of the professional wins for “Megatron” have come inside the distance, seven of them by form of knockout.
    A knockout of UFC veteran Jonathan Meunier sent Nassourdine Imavov (9-2) to “Contender Series,” but when that fell through, he instead signed on to debut in UFC against Jordan Williams in Oct. 2020. Despite Williams’ persistence, Imavov turned in a dominant striking performance to secure his sixth consecutive victory.
    He’ll have two inches of height and five inches of reach on Hawes.
    Imavov seriously impressed me against Williams, whom I’d tabbed as a potential headache because of his incredible resilience and relentless approach. Even acknowledging that I underestimated him, however, he looks like he’s in for some trouble against Hawes. Imavov can’t slow things down with takedown attempts when “Megatron” is the better wrestler and his defensive lapses looked poised to sink him against a counter-puncher of this caliber.
    If Hawes is what he’s supposed to be, he should dispose of Imavov without too much hassle. Though Imavov’s length and scrambling skills could give Hawes issues if some of the latter’s bad habits crop up, expect Hawes to land a vicious counter right for another early finish.
    Prediction: Hawes via first-round knockout
    Related
    Up Next! ‘Blaydes Vs Lewis’ In Las Vegas!

    145 lbs.: Jared Gordon vs. Danny Chavez

    Jared Gordon (16-4) stormed out of the UFC gate with dominant wins over Michel Quinones and Hacran Dias, only to suffer knockout losses in three of his next four fights. “Flash” fought just once in 2020, returning to Featherweight to dismantle former Cage Warriors champ Chris Fishgold and claim a unanimous decision.
    Six of his eight stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
    After suffering two straight losses in 2016 and missing all of 2017, Danny Chavez (11-3) rattled off three consecutive first-round knockouts, setting up an Aug. 2020 Octagon debut against T.J. Brown. There, “The Colombian Warrior” used power kicks and strong wrestling to emerge victorious.
    He gives up an inch of height and reach to Gordon.
    Chavez was one of last year’s bigger surprises for me — I never would have expected a guy with a weak strength of schedule and three knockouts in 10 wins to decisively defeat a well-rounded veteran like Brown. Even considering how good Gordon looked his last time out, I favor him to do the same here, as Gordon seems to lack the durability necessary to properly overwhelm someone who refuses to give ground.
    Gordon’s best chance is to try and drag Chavez into deep waters, where the latter had some issues against a hobbled Brown. Between Chavez’s crushing low kicks blunting Gordon’s offense and his wrestling seemingly being sufficient to keep it on the feet, however, “Flash” will have all sorts of issues actually wearing him down without getting battered in the process. In the end, Chavez steadily chips away at Gordon’s mobility until he holds still long enough to get clipped.
    Prediction: Chavez via second-round technical knockout
    Related
    UFC Vegas 19 Poster For ‘Blaydes Vs Lewis’

    155 lbs.: Drakkar Klose vs. Luis Pena

    Drakkar Klose (11-2-1) battled his way to a 5-1 Octagon start, notching upset decisions over Marc Diakiese and Lando Vannata, before squaring off with fellow rising contender Beneil Dariush at UFC 248. The pair wound up putting on an absolute firefight that saw Klose badly hurt Dariush before succumbing to the Iranian’s vicious left hand early in the second.
    He gives up a half-foot of height and five inches of reach to “Violent Bob Ross.”
    Though he bowed out early due to injury, Luis Pena (8-3) emerged as one of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27’s most notable figures and started his Octagon career right with a guillotine finish of Richie Smullen. He has yet to find consistent success in UFC, however, subsequently going 3-3 and tapping to a Khama Worthy guillotine in June 2020.
    He steps in for Jai Herbert on less than two weeks’ notice.
    I actually really liked the original Klose vs. Herbert match up, as “The Black Country Banger,” a rangy and savvy striker, had the tools to potentially exploit Klose’s tendency to abandon technical striking in favor of swinging big. Pena is going to have a much, much more difficult time of it — he has yet to learn to properly utilize his length in the striking. And while he’s exponentially more dangerous than Herbert on the ground, he lacks the takedown prowess to consistently put Klose on his back.
    Pena’s best bet is to work in the clinch and try to take Klose’s back standing, because otherwise, Klose is going to pulverize his lead leg and beat the snot of out him in the pocket once his mobility’s gone. The latter seems a lot more likely than the former, so let’s go with that.
    Prediction: Klose via unanimous decision
    Related
    Watch UFC Live Stream On ESPN+

    135 lbs.: Eddie Wineland vs. John Castaneda

    Eddie Wineland(24-14-1) — reeling from losses in four of his previous six appearances — came up huge with his back against the wall by knocking out Grigorii Popov in 2019. His next assignment pitted him against Sean O’Malley, who leveled him in less than two minutes to earn “Performance of the Night” at UFC 250.
    All but one of his victories in the last decade have come by knockout.
    John Castaneda (17-5) ended a 15-month layoff in July 2020, stepping in for Umar Nurmagomedov against Nathaniel Wood on short notice. “Sexi Mexi” gave a strong effort, but ultimately fell short against “The Prospect,” losing a clear unanimous decision on “Fight Island.”
    He’ll enjoy a slight one-inch reach advantage.
    This fight boils down to how much Wineland still has left in the tank. His pressure, takedown defense and crushing right hand look like perfect weapons against Castaneda, who usually struggles off the back foot and found himself out-worked by Wood last time out. The question, then, is whether Wineland can still execute after so many wars and on the heels of a crushing knockout loss.
    I may or may not be blinded by nostalgia, but I do still favor Wineland to win a striking battle against an opponent of this caliber, at least if he can prevent Castaneda from setting the pace. In short, he narrowly out-duels Castaneda on the feet, landing the more telling blows to scrape out an entertaining decision.
    Prediction: Wineland via split decision

  13. #13
    Thrilla
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    hankcream
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    Quote Originally Posted by WolfTicketDealer View Post
    Minner RD 1 Sub is absurdly priced (+1000) at multiple books. It's by far his most likely path to victory.
    I like Rosa to win, but that is definitely worth a shot got to believe Minner is is going to go out balls to the wall to sink a choke in as soon as he can

  15. #15
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by WolfTicketDealer View Post
    Minner RD 1 Sub is absurdly priced (+1000) at multiple books. It's by far his most likely path to victory.
    Charles Rosa gonna smash this guy.. Rosa never has been sub'd out and he's an American Top Team guy. He's been training with some very good Submission guys over the years.. Just saying. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Charles-Rosa-71116

    At +1000 it might be worth a small stab though or hedge going the other way. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Darrick-Minner-92115

  16. #16
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Charles Rosa gonna smash this guy.. Rosa never has been sub'd out and he's an American Top Team guy. He's been training with some very good Submission guys over the years.. Just saying. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Charles-Rosa-71116

    At +1000 it might be worth a small stab though or hedge going the other way. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Darrick-Minner-92115
    Borrowing a phrase from Khamzat to describe Charles Rosa? Hmm...
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    JIBBBY
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    265 lbs.: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis

    Curtis “Razor” Blaydes
    Record: 14-2, 1 NC | Age: 29 | Betting line: -450
    Wins: 10 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
    Height: 6’4“ | Reach: 80” | Stance: Orthodox
    Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.55 | Striking accuracy: 53%
    Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.73 | Striking Defense: 57%
    Takedown Average: 6.98 (55% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 33%
    Current Ranking: No. 2 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Alexander Volkov
    Derrick “Black Beast” Lewis
    Record: 24-7, 1 NC | Age: 35 | Betting line: +350
    Wins: 19 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
    Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 79” | Stance: Orthodox
    Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.64 | Striking accuracy: 50%
    Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.09 | Striking Defense: 44%
    Takedown Average: 0.54 (26% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 52%
    Current Ranking: No. 4 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Alexey Oleynik
    I think we need to get the obvious out of the way and concede that Derrick Lewis is not a martial artist, but rather a barroom brawler who trains MMA. The fact that he’s been able to get this far in his combat sports career is astonishing but also indicative of how stale the UFC heavyweight division has become after years of recycling the same top contenders. To his credit, Lewis is incredibly agile for a fighter of his size and he packs a wallop, which continues to be the great equalizer against more skilled opponents. Go back and look at his last 10 fights and try to find an impressive performance. Lewis scored four knockouts but he was losing all four of those fights before landing the big punch, including last August’s finish over Alexey Oleynik. Prior to that were a pair of dreadful — and very close — decision wins over Ilir Latifi and Blagoy Ivanov, two super tough guys but c’mon, let’s get real, he melts in the face of superior technique. Both Junior dos Santos and Daniel Cormier exposed “Black Beast” for exactly what he is and don’t get me wrong, he’s wildly entertaining and a reliable source for heavyweight highlight reels, but we aren’t weighing his merits as a fan favorite, we’re trying to build a case for his victory against Curtis Blaydes.
    That’s proving to be a tough sell when you look at what Blaydes has done to the bulk of the heavyweight division. Unlike Lewis, “Razor” does not fall behind on the scorecards and Hail Mary his way out of trouble. Instead, he dominates from bell-to-bell and takes high-level strikers like Junior dos Santos and Mark Hunt — two heavyweight who smashed Lewis — and turns them inside out. If you want to lodge a complaint against Blaydes you can say his style is boring and not be wrong, but at the same time he absorbs very little damage and fights to win. It’s a common gripe for high-level wrestlers and Blaydes captured an NJCAA national championship as a redshirt sophomore out of Harper College. Wrestling is one of the core foundations of MMA and like knockout power, it’s particularly potent at heavyweight. How do you stop a double-leg takedown from a 260-pound athlete barreling straight at you at full speed? And pretty or not, it’s hard to knock a guy like Blaydes for doing whatever it takes to work his way to a division title shot. We should acknowledge the pair of knockout losses to Francis Ngannou because they stick out like a sore thumb, though I’m not sure how crazy we wanna get over losing to “The Predator,” who is just straight-up murdering everyone at 265 pounds. Yes, Lewis holds a win over Ngannou, thanks to a 15-minute staring contest that saw the Cameroonian land a whopping 11 strikes.
    Lewis does not have a particularly nuanced striking attack and any wrestling advantage he held against other combatants has been neutralized against Blaydes. That means “Black Beast” will have to follow the blueprint laid by Ngannou and strike from the hot balls of his feet so that he doesn’t get caught flat-footed and driven into the mat. It’s certainly possible ... but plausible? Blaydes has the highest takedown percentage in the division, a staggering 6.98 per fight with a 55% accuracy rating, even hitting double digits against Mark Hunt and Alexander Volkov. It’s always risky betting against a slugger like Lewis who continues to prove he can never be counted out, I just have a hard time picking him for the upset when he routinely struggles against opponents who are smaller and less talented than Blaydes. And that’s before we even talk about his rapidly shrinking gas tank, which is so small it could be sponsored by Briggs & Stratton. Assuming “Razor” doesn’t start to get comfortable and coast, I would expect him to grind Lewis into exhaustion and pound on him until the referee mercifully intervenes. Somewhere in the third round sounds about right.
    Prediction: Blaydes def. Lewis by technical knockout
    Related
    Free Fight! Blaydes Dominates Abdurakhimov In Abu Dhabi

    135 lbs.: Ketlen Vieira vs. Yana Kunitskaya

    Ketlen “Fenomeno” Vieira
    Record: 11-1 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -265
    Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
    Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 68” | Stance: Orthodox
    Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.10 | Striking accuracy: 36%
    Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.98 | Striking Defense: 56%
    Takedown Average: 2.02 (52% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 92%
    Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Sijara Eubanks
    Yana “Foxy” Kunitskaya
    Record: 13-5 (1 NC) | Age: 31 | Betting line: +225
    Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 1 DEC
    Height: 5’6“ | Reach: 68” | Stance: Orthodox
    Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.49 | Striking accuracy: 54%
    Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.17 | Striking Defense: 51%
    Takedown Average: 2.04 (53% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 33%
    Current Ranking: No. 7 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Julija Stoliarenko
    I don’t think anyone is breaking out the party hats for a bantamweight co-main event between Ketlen Vieira and Yana Kunitskaya but to be fair, this is the fight that makes the most sense for the division and could determine which one of these 135-pound contenders positions themselves for a spot in the Top 5. Besides, we can’t complain about dopey, nonsensical matchups that damage the integrity of divisions then whine when matchmakers play it by the book. Vieira is ranked one spot above Kunitskaya at No. 6 and I’m a fan of any bout that helps produce a title challenger not named Germaine de Randamie or Holly Holm.
    Vieira was positioned to make a run at the bantamweight belt but lost all of her momentum when Irene Aldana turned off the lights at UFC 245. Fortunately for the Brazilian, the promotion was quick to get her back in the cage at UFC 253, where “Fenomeno” returned to form against the rough-and-tumble Sijara Eubanks. Vieira is now 5-1 under the UFC banner with victories over a pair of ex-title contenders in the form of Cat Zingano and Sara McMann. I know those names have not held up over time, but we can’t punish Vieira for the state of the union — she can only work with the materials she’s given.
    Kunitskaya had the unenviable task of making her UFC debut against Cris Cyborg at 145 pounds, but after shaking off her drubbing to the since-banished Brazilian, “Foxy” went on to win three of her next four. Getting planished by fellow contender Aspen Ladd was a huge setback and even though Kunitskaya was able to bounce back with a decision win over Julija Stoliarenko, a loss to Vieira will all but eliminate her from future title consideration. I don’t know if those kinds of stakes will help or hamper the Invicta import, but this fight will show us what’s she’s made of — for better or worse.
    Oddsmakers have Kunitskaya as a sizable underdog despite their proximity in the division rankings and that’s because Vieira is considered to be a rising star (despite a minor speed bump) whereas “Foxy” is graded as an inconsistent veteran who performed well enough in recent years to “hang in there.” Based on what I’ve seen thus far, I’m not sure Kunitskaya is going to do enough to counter that assessment when the cage door closes tomorrow night in “Sin City.”
    Prediction: Vieira def. Kunitskaya by unanimous decision

  18. #18
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Borrowing a phrase from Khamzat to describe Charles Rosa? Hmm...
    I could have used the words Crush or Thump I suppose instead.

    I wonder how many fights are gonna be cancelled with this event leading up? Seems we always get a couple fights cancelled right after weigh ins.
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  19. #19
    Sanity Check
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    Le Martin with the gutsy predictions.







    Not certain her calls will pan out.

    But I applaud the bravado.

  20. #20
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I could have used the words Crush or Thump I suppose instead.

    I wonder how many fights are gonna be cancelled with this event leading up? Seems we always get a couple fights cancelled right after weigh ins.
    Looks like 1 today despite 4 weight misses. Hopefully no more later today/tomorrow.
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  21. #21
    hankcream
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    Alves crying like a bitch before he even stepped on the scale - I guess those special Brazilian vitamins don't help with weight cuts.
    After watching the face-offs's "Violent Bob Ross" Pena is so tall I don't think Klose will be able to land a head shot- might have to re-evaluate that fight.
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  22. #22
    SEKTAUR
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    Quote Originally Posted by WolfTicketDealer View Post
    Think the old man Arlovski has some value at the current price. Only been KO'd once in the past 4 years and has faced some punchers in that time (Walt Harris, Tuivasa, who did knock AA down). Also have to consider the level of competition/punching power that did finish Arlovski since his second UFC stint (Rozenstruick, Ngannou, Overeem, Stipe). Meanwhile, all of Aspinall's wins are in R1 and I think it'll be a serious sweat for any Aspinall backers if he doesn't get an early finish.
    Aspinall is 15 years younger with more power and much better wrestling. If he doesn’t knock out Arvlovski in round 1 there’s no sweat. He ain’t gassing out faster than a 42 year old. This should be an easy KO win or ground and pound smash finish. I’ll chance the under 1.5 also with the plus odds.

  23. #23
    hankcream
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    Veira missed weight and didn't look very good on the scale or at the face-off. From my experience, it looks like she's having her period and may be cramping up. Lots of value on Kunitskiya at big plus money.

  24. #24
    Pinoy-T-X
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    Quote Originally Posted by hankcream View Post
    Veira missed weight and didn't look very good on the scale or at the face-off. From my experience, it looks like she's having her period and may be cramping up. Lots of value on Kunitskiya at big plus money.
    I believe Holm mentioned she was cramping and having her period when she beat Rousey.

  25. #25
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    It’s FIGHT NIGHT!!!

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  26. #26
    Jibbysdaddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by SEKTAUR View Post
    Aspinall is 15 years younger with more power and much better wrestling. If he doesn’t knock out Arvlovski in round 1 there’s no sweat. He ain’t gassing out faster than a 42 year old. This should be an easy KO win or ground and pound smash finish. I’ll chance the under 1.5 also with the plus odds.
    My thoughts exactly. Especially with all those first round finishes recently

  27. #27
    Jibbysdaddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    It’s FIGHT NIGHT!!!

    Love you Bigday! Glad to see you're healthy
    Last edited by Jibbysdaddy; 02-20-21 at 11:20 AM. Reason: add a sentence

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jibbysdaddy View Post
    Love you Bigday! Glad to see you're healthy

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  29. #29
    KingHawkins
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    Am I all alone on Julian Erosa island? I don't see anyone here with me.
    Also taking a stab at Black Beast by Sub +2600 - he recently earned some belt stripes, was temporarily signed up to grapple Bader in a Submission Underground event, and him subbing Blaydes is just so far-fetched that it probably ends up happening. $25 down and may add some more.

  30. #30
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Alves missed weight by 11.5 pounds?

  31. #31
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jibbysdaddy View Post
    Love you Bigday! Glad to see you're healthy
    Ghost account who are you?

  32. #32
    Jibbysdaddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Ghost account who are you?
    You don't know me fat boy. Just let us know your picks so we can fade them into a good profit.

  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jibbysdaddy View Post
    You don't know me fat boy. Just let us know your picks so we can fade them into a good profit.
    Hi Paco

  34. #34
    JIBBBY
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    Fade this -

    1) Vanderaa ITD
    2) Rodriguez Straight
    3) Emmers ITD
    4) Casey Oniel Straight
    5) Ladwehr Straight
    6) Wineland Straight
    7) Klose Dec
    8) Chaves KO
    9) Aspinal KO
    10) Imovov Straight
    11) Daukaus KO
    12) Rosa Straight
    13) Vieira Dec
    14) Blaydes Dec
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  35. #35
    Thor4140
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    Gonna lay the lumber on Daukaus. I think his ground game is enuf to stay out of that tricky fukers chokes and knock him out. Lets not forget Cris is a black belt. A couple belts higher than the black beast glass belt. Also like Blades but not at those odds. I think the Beast luck has finally run out with these wrestlers. DC had a high fight IQ. I think Blades should be smart enuf to take the Beast heat. Some of these other brain dead guys the Beast fought weren't the brightest of game planners.

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