UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns (February 13, 2021)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns (for welterweight title)
Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch
Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera
Julian Marquez vs. Maki Pitolo

ESPN 8:00 pm ET
Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller
Anthony Hernandez vs. Rodolfo Vieira
Dhiego Lima vs. Belal Muhammad
Brian Kelleher vs. Ricky Simon

ESPN+ 6:30 pm ET
Miranda Maverick vs. Gillian Robertson
Gabe Green vs. Phil Rowe
Mallory Martin vs. Polyana Viana

[JIBBBY]

Usman for me. The -250 odds kinda sucks though.

[frankieunits2685]

Usman for me. The -250 odds kinda sucks though.

I'm thinking about laying the juice, too Jibbs.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Liking some of the Usman props for this one, particularly UD and will look at the -5.5 when it comes out. The main card is complete shit though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking some of the Usman props for this one, particularly UD and will look at the -5.5 when it comes out. The main card is complete shit though.

Things MMA Fans Don't Say: "Kamaru Usman sucks. He never wins."

[Demonata]

I actually am liking maycee barber as the underdog

[Unwritten Law]

I got Gilbert Burns.

[kobejoshy]

Usman has been so dominant but Burns has been on a tear so laying the juice is concerning. I like Miranda Maverick and Mallory Martin. I think Maverick is strong enough to avoid the grappling exchanges with Robertson. I think Martin wins in all phases of the fight. Martin debut against Jandiroba was a tough matchup stylistically and she fought Barber in the regional scene losing by decision.

[JIBBBY]

Burns by sub or Usman by decision is probably your best prop bets for this main event fight.

Usman hard to KO and has a chin, they also both trained together so maybe Usman won't be able to drop Burns standing either on the flip. Usman by wrestling takedowns and ground and pound over 5 rounds is what is probably the most likely outcome in my mind with this fight. Burns will probably gas out late and just lay on his back for the last 2 rounds and survive..

[Unwritten Law]

Michael Chandler who has trained with both thinks Burns will be victorious.

[WolfTicketDealer]

And Munhoz v. Rivera has been moved to a different card. Got a UFC 208 level card.

[unlearn]

Usman dec +105 (BOL)

[WolfTicketDealer]

If y'all have access to FoxBet they have a pretty crazy line imo: Gilbert Burns under 1.5 Takedowns (+100)

[kobejoshy]

Interesting. I would be shocked if got Burns a takedown let alone two.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree....he may get them but usman will be up in a second...tough call

Interesting. I would be shocked if got Burns a takedown let alone two.

[kobejoshy]

I think Usman's folkstyle/collegiate wrestling will make it very difficult for Burns to get a takedown. I could see Burns diving for a leg/heel-hook or something in a late round but wouldn't score as a takedown.

Agree....he may get them but usman will be up in a second...tough call

[UncleChael]

Things MMA Fans Don't Say: "Kamaru Usman sucks. He never wins."

I loveeeed when you called him the BLACK GSP !!!

[JC2008]

Michael Chandler who has trained with both thinks Burns will be victorious.

Interesting...

[Unwritten Law]

https://www.mmanews.com/2021/01/common-training-partner-chandler-picks-burns-to-uncrown-usman/

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -






135 lbs.: Ricky Simon vs. Brian Kelleher

Strong wins over Merab Dvalishvili, Montel Jackson and Rani Yahya pushed Ricky Simon (17-3) to the brink of contender status, where he ran headlong into a resurgent Urijah Faber in one of 2019’s biggest upsets. His next three efforts proved more successful, earning “Fight of the Night” in a competitive loss to Rob Font and subsequently defeated Ray Borg and Gaetano Pirrello.
This will be his second fight in less than four weeks.
After missing all of 2019 with injury, Brian Kelleher (22-11) made up for lost time in 2020, going 3-1 with three post-fight bonuses. His trio of victories included a guillotine finish of Ode Osbourne, a knockout of Hunter Azure, and most recently another guillotine of late replacement Ray Rodriguez.
Eighteen of his finishes have come inside the distance, including all but one of his Octagon victories.
I can’t imagine this fight not securing a bonus of some sort, as these two will put on a ludicrous pace and never stop trying to maul each other. It’s the speed, takedowns and crisp striking of Simon against the power, grit, and show-stopping guillotine of “Boom.”
I do think Simon takes it, but he’ll be walking a tightrope the whole time. That’s because while Kelleher’s been out-wrestled in the past, that guillotine is an ever-present threat, and Simon is fragile enough to get clipped at any point. Still, his scrambling skills should limit the submission threat and it will be hard for Kelleher to sit down on his punches when he’s constantly fighting off takedowns. In the end, Simon out-works him in an early “Fight of the Night” candidate.
Prediction: Simon via unanimous decision
Related
Watch: Countdown To UFC 258

170 lbs.: Gabe Green vs. Philip Rowe

A 3-2 professional start gave way to six consecutive victories for Gabe Green (9-3), who evened up his Bellator MMA record in the process. Then came a nearly two-year layoff, which ended in May 2020 with a decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez in the Octagon debut for “Gifted.”
His nine finishes are split 6/3 between submissions and knockouts.
Philip Rowe (7-2) lost his first two professional bouts before embarking on his current run, which culminated in a 2019 “Contender Series” bout against Leon Shahbazyan. There, “The Fresh Prince” powered through some early adversity to batter the favored Shahbazyan into submission and claim a contract.
He’ll enjoy five inches of height and nearly eight inches of reach on Green.
Even by MMA’s very high standards, Rowe is an odd case. He’s a 6’3” Welterweight with an 80.5” reach and only two speeds that he switches between at random intervals: “painfully inactive” and “possessed of an unquenchable bloodlust.” Neither seems like enough to get him past Green, who’s the heavier hitter of the two and was durable enough to survive heavy fire from Rodriguez last time out.
Rowe does appear to have an edge on the mat, especially considering Green’s porous takedown defense, but “The Fresh Prince’s” offensive wrestling prowess isn’t much to speak of. This means he’s likely in for a slugfest against someone too tough to knock out and too powerful to withstand. Green puts him out in a one-round firefight.
Prediction: Green via first-round technical knockout
Related
UFC 258 Full Fight Card Streaming Results Online

125 lbs.: Gillian Robertson vs. Miranda Maverick

A one-and-done run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 didn’t stop Gillian Robertson (9-5) from winning six of her first eight Octagon bouts and scoring five finishes in the process. Her ninth fight pitted her against Brazil’s Taila Santos, who successfully shut down “The Savage’s” wrestling to claim a unanimous decision in Dec. 2020.
She has tapped six professional foes overall and pounded out one other.
An impressive run in Invicta, which included victory in the Phoenix Series 2 tournament and a decision over UFC veteran Pearl Gonzalez, brought Miranda Maverick (8-2) to UFC last year. She entered her debut against Liana Jojua as a massive favorite and ultimately proved the bookies right with a first-round finish.
Though two inches shorter than Robertson, she’ll enjoy a two-inch reach advantage.
This is something of a reckoning for both women. Robertson has some of the best top control in the entire division, but has demonstrated an inability to get much done when the takedowns aren’t there. Maverick, on the other hand, is a strong wrestler and capable striker who’s historically left herself open to takedowns in return. Both are equipped to exploit the other’s weaknesses; the difference is that Maverick’s seemingly addressed her biggest flaws, while Robertson’s bugbears reared their heads against Santos in her most recent fight.
Robertson can absolutely ruin Maverick’s day if the latter gets lazy with her low kicks, and any prolonged exchanges on the mat will favor “The Savage.” Still, Maverick’s slight technical striking edge and raw output should carry her to a comfortable decision victory.
Prediction: Maverick via unanimous decision



155 lbs.: Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller

Bobby Green (27-11-1) — who’d won just one of his previous seven fights — turned the corner in 2020 with three consecutive wins and a “Fight of the Night” bonus. “King” appeared to have made it 4-0 on the year against Thiago Moises in Oct. 2020, but wound up on the wrong end of a controversial unanimous decision.
He stands two inches taller than “A-10” at 5’10.”
Seemingly finished after a 1-5 skid, Jim Miller (32-15) showed he still had some life left in him by winning three of his next four bouts, including a bonus-winning armbar finish of the heavily-favored Roosevelt Roberts. Vinc Pichel proved a tougher nut to crack, successfully out-lasting Miller at UFC 252 in Aug. 2020.
His 22 professional stoppages include 18 submissions.
I’ll readily admit that I’ve prematurely counted out Miller more than once, but simply performing above expectations isn’t going to get him past Green. “King’s” a sufficiently stout wrestler to keep it standing and holds a considerable edge in the boxing, limiting Miller’s chances of either grinding him down with pressure or getting that lethal top game going.
Green’s recently upped his volume and Miller’s shown an increasing tendency to fade late. Essentially, Miller needs an early finish to win this, and Green is notoriously difficult to put away for anyone besides Dustin Poirier. “King” gets back on track with an increasingly one-sided sprawl-and-brawl decision.
Prediction: Green via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Usman Vs Burns’ In Las Vegas!

185 lbs.: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Anthony Hernandez

Rodolfo Vieira (7-0) — one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu players to ever hit the mats — dominated during his time on the international MMA circuit before joining the UFC in 2019. He tapped Oskar Piechota after two rounds in his Octagon debut, then needed less than five minutes to do the same to Saparbeg Safarov in March 2020.
He has submitted six professional opponents and stopped a seventh with ground-and-pound.
Things went from bad to worse for Anthony Hernandez (7-2) when, after seeing his brutal knockout of Jordan Wright on “Contender Series” overturned because of a failed drug test, he fell victim to an anaconda choke from Markus Perez in his Octagon debut. “Fluffy” bounced back with an anaconda finish of Jun Yong Park six months later, but fell to Kevin Holland in just 39 seconds his next time out.
He faces a two-inch reach disadvantage against “The Black Belt Hunter.”
Though he’s likely the most difficult opponent of Vieira’s mixed martial arts (MMA) career, it’s hard to see this going well for Hernandez. Perez, a very limited wrestler, managed to largely shut down Hernandez’s offense before finally cracking his submission defense and securing the finish. A technical wizard and physical powerhouse like Vieira should have a much easier time of it, and Hernandez’s striking edge won’t mean much if he can’t keep it standing long enough to use it.
I genuinely think “Fluffy” is better than he’s shown so far in the Octagon ... or at least has higher potential. All that matters is what you manage in the cage, though, and what he’s done suggests bad things about his chances. In the end, Vieira bullies him to the mat for an early submission finish.
Prediction: Vieira via first-round submission
Related
Watch: Countdown To UFC 258

170 lbs.: Belal Muhammad vs. Dhiego Lima

Continuing the trend, here’s another one that was supposed to happen last year and fell apart after I’d already written it up ...
Belal Muhammad (17-3) put a 1-2 Octagon start behind him to win four straight before running into the surging Geoff Neal last year. He has since put together another three-fight win streak, including a decision over Lyman good in June 2020.
He gives up three inches of height and almost as much reach to Dhiego Lima (15-7).
A 1-3 skid bounced Lima from UFC, and though he managed to find his way back via The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 25, he followed a loss on the Finale with a decision defeat to Yushin Okami. He enters the cage this Saturday on a three-fight win streak, and a victory would mark his longest unbeaten run since 2011.
This marks his first appearance since beating Luke Jumeau in Oct. 2019.
I’ll admit to badly underestimating Lima in his recent efforts, but Muhammad just seems all wrong for him. “Remember the Name” is more than capable of holding his own on the feet, especially since Lima’s fragility offsets Muhammad’s lack of stopping power, and he has the sort of wrestling that’s given Lima fits in the past.
The only things Lima really has going for him here are height and reach, both of which Muhammad proved he could deal with in his win over Tim Means. Whether he decides to mix it up standing or make his life easier with regular takedowns, Muhammad cruises to a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Muhammad via unanimous decision
Related
Usman Eyes ‘Gamebred’ Rematch After Breaking Nose Before First Fight

115 lbs.: Polyana Viana vs. Mallory Martin

A dominant submission win over Maia Kahaunaele-Stevenson in her Octagon debut seemingly had Polyana Viana (11-4) poised for greatness, only for the Brazilian to lose her next three bouts. She came up big with her back against the wall last August, catching Emily Whitmire in an armbar to keep her Octagon career afloat.
All of her professional wins have come inside the distance, seven of them by submission.
Though her “Contender Series” win over Micol di Segni didn’t earn Mallory Martin (7-3) a contract, she got her Octagon shot four months later by stepping up on short notice against Virna Jandiroba. That didn’t go terribly smoothly, as she tapped to a second-round rear-naked choke, but a sophomore effort against Hannah Cifers saw Martin wrap up a second-round finish of her own to earn “Performance of the Night.”
She gives up one inch of height and three inches of reach to “Dama de Ferro.”
I’ve invested a lot more thought into this prediction than the opening fight of the early “Prelims” probably merits, but it does vex me so. Both women are deeply flawed in delightfully compatible ways. Martin — though a strong wrestler and functional striker — nearly got sparked out by Hannah Cifers last time out. Viana, for her part, has the submission game and natural power to be a contender, but continues to find ways to disappoint.
It’s a coin-flip that will likely boil down to who executes best.
Eh, screw it, I’ll give Viana one last chance to impress me — fool me four times, shame on me. She seems like the more capable striker and is dangerous enough on the ground to potentially scare Martin off from shooting, so expect her to hold her own on the feet before securing a second-round club-and-sub.
Prediction: Viana via second-round submission

[Thrilla]

[frankieunits2685]

Going to be eating some juice for this card.

[hankcream]

I'll probably buy this thing, but what the f is the UFC thinking charging $70 to watch this shitty card? I've seen better cards on UFC fight nights on Fox & ESPN.

I've got to lay $180 on Usman just to cover the cost of the PPV

[JIBBBY]

Going to be eating some juice for this card.

Yup!! Favorites are looking good in this event I can't lie. Tough betting card taking the dogs in this one.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Burns by sub or Usman by decision is probably your best prop bets for this main event fight.

Usman hard to KO and has a chin, they also both trained together so maybe Usman won't be able to drop Burns standing either on the flip. Usman by wrestling takedowns and ground and pound over 5 rounds is what is probably the most likely outcome in my mind with this fight. Burns will probably gas out late and just lay on his back for the last 2 rounds and survive..

Can you name any male champions who have lost their belt by submission? I can only think of 3 in the past 7 years or so.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Usman has been so dominant but Burns has been on a tear so laying the juice is concerning. I like Miranda Maverick and Mallory Martin. I think Maverick is strong enough to avoid the grappling exchanges with Robertson. I think Martin wins in all phases of the fight. Martin debut against Jandiroba was a tough matchup stylistically and she fought Barber in the regional scene losing by decision.

What were your thoughts about Martin's performance against Barber?

[Hugo de Naranja]

And Munhoz v. Rivera has been moved to a different card. Got a UFC 208 level card.

Don't remind me. Was at that card and took my girlfriend at the time along for her first night of fights ever, hyping up a night of violence. 9 of 10 fights ended in decision and most (other than Poirier vs. Miller) were unexciting. There were fight day cancellations, awful judging, awful refereeing, and general NYSAC bullshit. Dana White said his favorite part of the event was the plane ride home and I can't disagree.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Usman dec +105 (BOL)

I took some Usman UD (+225) on a different book.

[Hugo de Naranja]

If y'all have access to FoxBet they have a pretty crazy line imo: Gilbert Burns under 1.5 Takedowns (+100)

Amazing line. Credit to you for finding that and hitting it. Current odds are (-250).

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Usman's folkstyle/collegiate wrestling will make it very difficult for Burns to get a takedown. I could see Burns diving for a leg/heel-hook or something in a late round but wouldn't score as a takedown.

Usman's never been taken down in the UFC and he's fought better wrestlers than Burns before.

[PaperTrail07]

Cant even imagine that's what Burns aims to do LOL>..

Usman's never been taken down in the UFC and he's fought better wrestlers than Burns before.

[PaperTrail07]

Gilbert Burns wins by 5 round decision
+625


Ian Heinisch wins inside distance
+500

[JIBBBY]

Burns isn't beating Usman.. Always bet on black. I don't care if they trained together in the past. Usman is a beast right now. His stand up has improved. I give him a chance to knock out Burns standing in this fight now after thinking it over.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Burns definitely can beat Usman but I think Usman wins around 75% of the time. Current ML on Usman seems about right to me.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Anybody else betting LFA tonight?

I'm on these:




1.1u Myron Dennis +112


1.1u Fernando Padilla -120


1.1u Parlay
Darian Weeks -900
Trevor Wallace -600
Valerie Ann Marie Soto -210
(-109)