UFC on ESPN+ 36: Covington vs. Woodley (September 19, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley
Donald Cerrone vs. Niko Price
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Ryan Spann vs. Johnny Walker
Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos
Kevin Holland vs. Darren Stewart

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Mirsad Bektic vs. Luiz Garagorri
Mara Romero Borella vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Jordan Espinosa vs. David Dvorak
Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Sarah Alpar
Journey Newson vs. Randy Costa
Andre Ewell vs. Irwin Rivera
TJ Laramie vs. Darrick Minner

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks for starting the thread Locky!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Finally this fight is happening after years of chatter about it. Looks like a pretty good card.

[frankieunits2685]

great card the next 2 weeks

[magpie878]

Opening this thread confirmed my big fear.

I was hoping Covington would not be a big favorite.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Opening this thread confirmed my big fear.

I was hoping Covington would not be a big favorite.

Seemed kinda inevitable Colby would be a big fave after the very one sided Burns fight. I do think there will be value in Woodley KO.

[Unwritten Law]

Mackenzie Dern seems like a steal at -160. Am I missing anything here?

[Unkclan]

Will Woodley finally wake up? Curious to see how his hatred for colby will play out. Will he had actually throw hands or just lose 50 45 like his last 2 where he looked awful

[hankcream]

Great card leading up to next weekend. For some reason I think Woodley shows up finally - 1 unit Woodley by KO/TKO +500

[hankcream]

Don't understand why Cowboy vs Price is the co-main? The first 4 fights are more interesting in my opinion.

[LeMartin]

Check out my main card breakdown for this Saturdays events!!!

I really like Dern -163, Cerrone +128, and Woodley +280....what do you guys think?

[frankieunits2685]

At first I was leaning Woodley, but I'm a little worried because it seems like everyone is on Woodley and we know how that goes..

And I'm not just talking about people on here! A lot of folks are on Woodley.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree---Covington going to do work but wouldn't MIND seeing Woodley KO his ass LOL.....that said, Covington Rolls

Finally this fight is happening after years of chatter about it. Looks like a pretty good card.

[PaperTrail07]

Good-LOL----guess Ill wait and get a better #.......there is no good # for Woodley these days....'d need over +500 here personally...

At first I was leaning Woodley, but I'm a little worried because it seems like everyone is on Woodley and we know how that goes..

And I'm not just talking about people on here! A lot of folks are on Woodley.

[WolfTicketDealer]

At first I was leaning Woodley, but I'm a little worried because it seems like everyone is on Woodley and we know how that goes..

And I'm not just talking about people on here! A lot of folks are on Woodley.

I'm not seeing much support for Woodley at all. His KO prop has a bit of value but I only have interest in betting Woodley as a significant underdog. And in this spot, IMO, his only path to victory is via KO.

[frankieunits2685]

I'm not seeing much support for Woodley at all. His KO prop has a bit of value but I only have interest in betting Woodley as a significant underdog. And in this spot, IMO, his only path to victory is via KO.

58% of the wagers are coming in on Woodley. I agree about Woodley KO possible path to victory.

[PaperTrail07]

RANDOM AF KO--his last KO was 5 years ago....and he's now 38 years old....Covington is going to walk him down and win every part of the fight....Woodley has maybe 1-3 minutes of a random chance IMO....it will looks like the Usman fight...remember he was + $ LOL...

I'm not seeing much support for Woodley at all. His KO prop has a bit of value but I only have interest in betting Woodley as a significant underdog. And in this spot, IMO, his only path to victory is via KO.

[frankieunits2685]

RANDOM AF KO--his last KO was 5 years ago....and he's now 38 years old....Covington is going to walk him down and win every part of the fight....Woodley has maybe 1-3 minutes of a random chance IMO....it will looks like the Usman fight...remember he was + $ LOL...

yeah im thinking the same

[WolfTicketDealer]

RANDOM AF KO--his last KO was 5 years ago....and he's now 38 years old....Covington is going to walk him down and win every part of the fight....Woodley has maybe 1-3 minutes of a random chance IMO....it will looks like the Usman fight...remember he was + $ LOL...

Definitely has been a while since we've had a Woodley KO but most of the guys he's fought were super durable and Colby did go through the war with Usman. Still think Colby likely takes it by decision but willing to take a small shot/hedge on Woodley KO.

[frankieunits2685]

Press conference today at 4pm EST

[PaperTrail07]

True I guess that's one way to look at it-the shot chin theory-I think CC has a chin personally.....I just think with Woodley that its too easy to bite on the KO factor....its just not there anymore..

Definitely has been a while since we've had a Woodley KO but most of the guys he's fought were super durable and Colby did go through the war with Usman. Still think Colby likely takes it by decision but willing to take a small shot/hedge on Woodley KO.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups - MMAMANIA







135 lbs.: Journey Newson vs. Randy Costa

Though he brought a six-fight win streak into his UFC debut, Journey Newson (9-2) has yet to notch an official victory in the Octagon. After falling to Ricardo Ramos in his late-notice debut, he leveled Domingo Pilarte in just 38 seconds, only to test positive for marijuana and have the win overturned.
He gives up four inches of height and nearly six inches of reach to Randy Costa (5-1).
“The Zohan,” whose four pre-Octagon fights lasted a combined 2:50, brought the heat in his Octagon debut but ultimately failed to put away Brandon Davis, who withstood the onslaught to choke him out in the second. His sophomore appearance proved more successful, knocking out Boston Salmon in 2:15.
All of his professional and amateur victories have come by form of knockout.
What makes this pick difficult is that while Newson has a grappling background, which will be his key weapon here, he’s yet to demonstrate his offensive chops in the Octagon. He leaned on his boxing against a superior grappler in Ramos and flatlined Pilarte before they could engage on the mat. He won’t want to do that against the much rangier and incredibly heavy-handed Costa, who could easily turn the lights out with a single shot.
I’m working with a lot of unknowns here, especially since we’ve also seen very little of Costa’s defensive wrestling, but I’m leaning Newson, as he ostensibly has enough boxing skills to stay afloat until the takedown presents itself. While Costa could just blow him away in the first two minutes, expect Newson to weather the storm and take over as “The Zohan” runs out of steam.
Prediction: Newson via second-round submission
Related
Woodley Will Risk Foul To Score Covington Nut Punch


135 lbs.: Andre Ewell vs. Irwin Rivera

Andre Ewell (16-6) — a former CES champion who’d won eight of nine before joining the world’s largest fight promotion — has alternated wins and losses in the Octagon. His most recent effort saw him claim a controversial decision win over Jonathan Martinez, upping his recent record to 3-2.
He is two inches taller than Irwin Rivera (10-5) and will have a seven-inch reach advantage.
“The Beast” knocked out Matt Wagy for the Titan FC Bantamweight title, then finished Danny Sabatello in similar fashion in his first defense. Though his late-notice Featherweight debut against Giga Chikadze went poorly, he entered the UFC win column with a split decision over Ali AlQaisi last month.
Half of his professional wins have come via (technical) knockout.
I’ll admit to regularly overestimating Ewell, but this looks like his most favorable Octagon matchup to date. Rivera’s lack of reach and limited takedown skills leave Ewell free to unleash his offbeat stand up to its fullest — “The Beast” will have all sorts of trouble bringing his power to bear as Ewell potshots him from long range.
That said, Rivera was willing to wrestle against AlQaisi and I’m long past trusting Ewell’s takedown defense against even striking specialists. He could potentially exploit Ewell’s grappling issues, but more likely, Ewell styles on him for a comfortable decision win.
Prediction: Ewell via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Darrick Minner vs. T.J. Laramie

Darrick Minner (24-11) got the call to welcome Herbert Burns on “Contender Series,” engaging the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace on the ground before tapping to a triangle halfway through the first round. After a pair of wins on the regional circuit, he made his Octagon debut against Grant Dawson, who choked him out early in the second round.
All told, 21 of his 24 wins have come by submission, including all of them since March 2015.
T.J. Laramie (12-3) defeated then-unbeaten Charles Jourdain for the TKO Featherweight Championship, then knocked out Joao Luis Nogueira in his first defense before falling to rival Alex Morgan. He bounced back to win the PFC Featherweight title, then battered Daniel Swain to secure a contract last month.
He faces a five-inch reach disadvantage and a one-inch height disadvantage.
I’m not sure what Minner did to piss off the UFC brass, but this is his third consecutive toxic match up under their purview. Burns and Dawson were his superiors on the mat and Laramie’s excellent takedown defense takes the Nebraskan’s dangerous submission arsenal out of the equation. Between that and his superior boxing, Laramie has everything he needs to sprawl-and-brawl his way to a comfortable victory.
Honestly, Laramie’s top game is solid enough that, were he feeling bold, he could probably take the fight to the mat and still come out victorious in Minner’s wheelhouse. Depending on how eager he is for the finish, “The Truth” either dominates on the end of his jab, catches Minner in a guillotine on a bad shot, or pounds him out from guard.
Prediction: Laramie via second-round technical knockout
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135 lbs.: Tyson Nam vs. Jerome Rivera

Tyson Nam (19-11-1_ put together a 6-1-1 run to earn himself a UFC contract, but stumbled out of the gate with decision losses to Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France. He finally secured his first Octagon victory this past June, knocking out kickboxing standout Zarrukh Adashev in just 32 seconds.
He was slated to face Matt Schnell at Flyweight this past Saturday, but “Danger” ended up knocking himself out during his weight cut.
Jerome Rivera (10-2) fell short against Roberto Sanchez in a bid for the LFA Flyweight title, then suffered a horrific arm injury against Brandon Royval his next time out. He’s since won three straight, including a controversial decision over Luis Rodriguez on “Contender Series” last month.
He has scored seven submission wins as a professional.
To be frank: Rivera clearly lost to Rodriguez. The 30-27s he received and the fact that the announcer shared the scores backwards (as 27-30 and 28-29) has me almost convinced that someone mixed up the fighters along the way. The key to his struggles was his poor follow-through on takedowns. Indeed, even though he sets his shots up well, he’s got poor pummeling and a seeming lack of physical strength in the clinch that leave him unable to secure top position. That’s simply not good enough against a counter-wrestler of Nam’s caliber, and Nam’s the more dangerous striker by a huge margin.
There is, of course, the ever-present chance of Nam dropping a decision while waiting for perfect countering opportunities, but I’m picking him anyway because those opportunities will be there. Rivera is overly linear in his advance, leaves his chin up, and doesn’t set up his kicks, all of which leave him vulnerable to return fire if he misjudges range. He’ll leave himself vulnerable to a fight-ending bomb before long.
Prediction: Nam via first-round technical knockout



145 lbs.: Mirsad Bektic vs. Eduardo Garagorri

Once considered among the best prospects in the entire sport, Mirsad Bektic (13-3) now finds himself just 2-3 in his last five after a perfect (4-0) Octagon start. His last two fights have seen him succumb to the crushing power of Josh Emmett and drop a narrow split decision to Dan Ige.
His professioanl stoppage wins are split 6/3 between (technical) knockouts and submissions.
Uruguay’s Eduardo Garagorri (13-1) entered the Octagon on the heels of six consecutive first-round stoppages, then kept his unbeaten record intact with a decision over Humberto Bandenay in his debut. Three months later, he squared off with Ricardo Ramos, who choked him out late in the first to earn Performance of the Night.
He is the taller of the two by one inch.
The Ramos fight handily demonstrated Garagorri’s deficiencies on the ground, and for all of Bektic’s struggles, he’s still a monster from top position. Against someone who can’t stop his takedowns or seriously trouble him on the feet, he’s ripe for the sort of brutal performance that will have pundits convinced he’s “back.”
Garagorri really only has a puncher’s chance here, and while Bektic’s been a bit fragile in the past, that’s nowhere near enough to overcome the towering obstacles in his way, especially considering that Bektic can hold his own on the feet. Bektic drags him down in the opening minutes and either brutalizes him with ground-and-pound or chokes him out.
Prediction: Bektic via first-round submission
Related
Woodley Will Risk Foul To Score Covington Nut Punch


125 lbs.: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Mara Romero Borella

Mayra Bueno Silva (6-1) made the most of her “Contender Series” opportunity by choking out Mayana Souza in just 62 seconds, then tapped Gillian Robertson via armbar in her Octagon debut less than two months later. An 18-month layoff followed, after which “Sheetara” dropped a competitive decision to division veteran Maryna Moroz in June.
All of her professional stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Mara Romero Borella (12-8) started her Octagon career strong with two victories in her first three appearances, including a submission of veteran Kalindra Faria and a decision over strong prospect Taila Santos.
“Maravila” has yet to taste victory since, dropping consecutive bouts to Lauren Murphy, Montana De La Rosa and Cortney Casey.
She’ll enjoy a 2.5-inch reach advantage over her Brazilian foe.
Though I won’t be fully sold on Silva until I see some offensive wrestling chops, the skills she’s demonstrated are more than sufficient to earn her the win here. In addition to being far more active on the feet, her submission chops look like more than Borella can handle, especially considering the latter’s tapout loss to Casey earlier this year. Borella’s essentially caught between a rock and a hard place, unable to outgun her in the striking and unable to implement her wrestling skills for fear of leaving her neck out.
The Italian’s only real shot at victory lies in grinding out Silva, and there are just too many hurdles to clear. She tries to force the grappling early and gets tapped from guard.
Prediction: Silva via first-round submission
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125 lbs.: Jordan Espinosa vs. David Dvorak

With two “Contender Series” finishes and a UFC debut win against Eric Shelton under his belt, Jordan Espinosa (15-7) looked poised for a run at the top, only to suffer consecutive submission losses to Matt Schnell and Alex Perez. He got back in track in June, handily dominating Mark De La Rosa for a wide unanimous decision win.
He is one inch taller than David Dvorak (18-3) and will have a commensurate reach advantage.
“Killa Khroust” went from starting his career 4-3 to winning 13 straight, setting up a March Octagon debut against Bruno Silva. Though he got dropped early, the Pole fought his way back to earn a unanimous decision in Brasilia.
He has knocked out eight pro foes and submitted another seven.
Odds-wise, this is the closest fight on the card by a hair, and I’m definitely inclined to agree. Dvorak has the prettier record, but Espinosa’s faced tougher competition. Espinosa’s a potent wrestler on top of his stand up, but Dvorak’s takedown defense is top-notch and he has the submission skills to punish Espinosa’s occasional lapses on the ground.
I suppose what sells “Killa Khroust” for me is this: Espinosa looked like a monster against De La Rosa, but “The Bumblebee” is a below-average striker at best. Dvorak is something else entirely, a vicious counter-puncher with the skills to capitalize when Espinosa brings his jab back low or makes any other slight mistake that his athleticism and speed generally compensate for. Though Espinosa’s cardio issues look like a thing of the past, nobody’s pushed him in the Octagon the way Dvorak will, and once the explosiveness starts to fade, there’ll be nothing saving Espinosa from the gap in power. In the end, Dvorak ends a back-and-forth affair in the third.
Prediction: Dvorak via third-round technical knockout
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135 lbs.: Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Sarah Alpar

Jessica Rose-Clark (9-6) opened her UFC career strong with decisions over Bec Rawlings and Paige VanZant, but fell short against Jessica Eye in her third appearance. Injuries and weight cut issues kept her out of action for the next 17 months, after which she dropped a decision to Pannie Kianzad in her return to Bantamweight.
Like “Too Sweet,” she boasts two knockouts and submissions apiece.
Sarah Alpar (9-4) earned the Sugar Creek Showdown and LFA Bantamweight titles with consecutive wins over Pamela Aguirre and Joselyne Edwards, setting up a “Contender Series” bout opposite Shanna Young. Though she entered as the underdog, she ultimately tapped “The Shanimal” out in the second round to earn a contract.
This will be her first fight in 13 months.
Dangerous as she is on the mat, Alpar’s striking has yet to catch up. A solid counter left doesn’t make up for her tendency to lose technique and composure in exchanges, a habit she’s only partially addressed in recent years. Clark is, if nothing else, always good for a scrap, and she should be able to force Alpar into the sort of brawl that capitalizes on that weakness.
This all, of course, assumes that Clark’s takedown defense holds up at Bantamweight. Alpar may be vulnerable on the feet, but she can certainly wrestle, and a grinding decision from Clark’s guard certainly isn’t out of the question. Still, Clark’s edge on the feet should be significant to net her a competitive decision win.
Prediction: Clark via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

T-Wood for me at that price also.. TWood has the wrestling and speed to hang with Cov.. He doesn't like the guy either..

[Thrilla]

T-Wood for me at that price also.. TWood has the wrestling and speed to hang with Cov.. He doesn't like the guy either..

Have to worry about diskwalification if backing Woodley. Guy talking intentional illegal blows just to hurt Covington more.

[hankcream]

Check out my main card breakdown for this Saturdays events!!!

I really like Dern -163, Cerrone +128, and Woodley +280....what do you guys think?

Good show LeMartin, nice work.
Where's your guy getting his info - "Trump supporters pounding Covington"

[JIBBBY]

Have to worry about diskwalification if backing Woodley. Guy talking intentional illegal blows just to hurt Covington more.

He does hate the guy.. If the ball shots and eye pokes start coming it could be a no contest then, all bets refunded.. ..

[JIBBBY]

Good show LeMartin, nice work.
Where's your guy getting his info - "Trump supporters pounding Covington"

I'm a Trump supporter and not betting Covington.. Living proof it's fake news..

[UncleChael]

Covington better pack a lunch for round 1. Woodley hits harder than Usman.
Woodley needs to beat up Covington.

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros Pick

[Thrilla]

Press conference today at 4pm EST

[magpie878]

"Needs to beat up" is a lot different than "beats up", and won't be beating anyone up is Covington takes (or keeps taking) him down.

Woodley barely escaped a first round loss to Burns and was swinging wildly a bunch. I have to think and hope that Covington isn't going to stay in a striking battle like vs Usman, where many expected BOTH to try wrestling, and neither did.

Strike some, go for takedowns, and Woodley will be tired by the third round.

[PaperTrail07]

Liking this bet:


$235.00
$186.67

Fighting - 58823491 Andre Ewell -215 for Game


Fighting - 59003081 Khamzat Chimaev -445 for Game

[PaperTrail07]

As Long as Ewell stays off his back early, he should own the feet....

[frankieunits2685]

Colby and Woodley both make weight. The Main Event is on!

[JerseyRobby]

Woodley can KO him but Covington +1000 by sub has some value.