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i'm leaning
Melecki
Amirkhani
Gus
Volkan
Ive bet on Evinger/Lansberg Goes the Distance for 4 units at -195
and Gus/Smith Goes the distance at +180 for 1 unitComment -
Lionheart showed no heart against Jon Jones last time out. Nothing worse than watching your fighter burn time and make money while he doesn't try to make his backers any along with him. Piss poor effort and I wonder if he is gun shy against Gus in the same manor.Comment -
Santos is one of my favorite plays. It is a slightly discounted line due to his long layoff, his time off was after a great run.Comment -
Get your UFC lines early if you think they will move with you. Lines move big and quick in this market.Comment -
Because of the bigger date gap between this card and the last, many lines have moved far from the openers.Comment -
I am interested in Teymur in the first round, I think that is his best shot to get the new comer and Teymur has a shit gas tank. I wouldn't expect him to do much after round 1. Hopefully it is +300 or more, really hoping for a +450, but +300 is fair.Comment -
I am also interested in Jimi Manuwa by TKO/KO at +275, he has fought much better competition than Rakic. Those are some sweet odds with Jimi fighting an up and comer.Comment -
I just checked fightodds because my book doesn't put props up until day before or day of the fight and Teymur +525 first round. I am gonna take a stab at that and a smaller play on +825 rd 2. I don't see that fight going to decision really and I like the dog.Comment -
Good parlay is Santos/Hadz/GusComment -
Taking a couple small plays on Gus in rds 3 and 4 +800 and +1145Comment -
Sorry about the multiple posts, but I need to get to 40 posts in order to message the PM staff and I am new, so I gotta get these things in.Comment -
If you are thinking about putting money on Joel Alvarez, watch his debut. I had a small wager on him with all his grappling skills, he was terrified to do anything in the ring. He did nothing in the entire fight and did not look like he was interested in winning, but getting to the final bell and collecting his check. You can't fight scared in the UFC and expect to get past your first contract.Comment -
Oez TKO/KO +200, solid value with his power and guy that should bang with himComment -
Sergey odds at -165 seem cheap for a guy with his experience fighting a guy with 5 fights and 4 of them were versus "cans."Comment -
MMA MANIA prelim write ups..
155 lbs.: Nick Hein vs. Frank Camacho
Nick Hein (14-4-1) took home the win in four of his first five Octagon appearances before injury scrapped a planned fight with Zabit Magomedsharipov and kept him out for all of 2017. “Sergeant” has yet to taste victory since, tapping to Davi Ramos and losing a brawl with Damir Hadzovic in Hamburg.
He is four inches shorter than Frank Camacho (21-7) and will give up an impressive 7.5” of reach.
“The Crank” won just one of his first three Octagon bouts, but produced Fights of the Night each time against Li Jingliang, Damien Brown, and Drew Dober. He wasn’t quite as lucky against Geoff Neal, who beat the stuffing out of him before putting him to sleep with a second-round head kick.
He replaces the injured Luigi Vendramini on one month’s notice.
Is there an official term for a grappling specialist who abandons his area of expertise to become a slugger and fails miserably? I know Jorge Gurgel is the archetypal example, but Hein is following in his footsteps. You could be forgiven for not realizing “Sergeant” is a top-notch judoka, as he’s usually content to just throw hands with abandon. This is not a winning strategy when you’re a 5’6” Lightweight with one of the shortest reaches in the sport, especially not against a tried-and-true brawler like Camacho.
Honestly, I feel like Camacho’s biggest battle will be with the scale; he weighed in at 160 the last time he tried to make Lightweight, so one would hope that getting manhandled by Neal will be the motivation he needs to get his weight in check. His huge reach advantage and edge in power should carry him to a fairly comfortable decision after 15 minutes of mutual haymakers.
Prediction: Camacho via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Duda Santana vs. Bea Malecki
Related
Finalized! UFC Stockholm Fight Card, ESPN+ Line Up
A protege of countryman “Cowboy” Oliveira, Duda Santana (3-0) fought thrice in 2017, picking up one knockout among the victories. “Cowboyzinha” was supposed to face Luana Carolina on “Contender Series” in August 2017, but wound up running into **** issues.
This will be her first fight in almost 18 months
Bea Malecki (2-0) went 1-0 as an amateur before making her professional debut in 2017 and picking up a pair of stoppage wins. She became Team Gastelum’s penultimate Featherweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter 28, where she fell to Leah Letson in the opening round.
She has knocked out and submitted one professional foe apiece.
It says something about the paucity of contenders in the division that the UFC put together a fight between women with five combined pro fights. The only numerically comparable matchup I can think of in recent times was Mickey Gall (2-0) against CM Punk (0-0), which is not something UFC wants to remind the public of.
As far as skills, Santana is happy to plod forward and chuck one-two combinations, while Malecki, despite a solid Muay Thai pedigree, showed little besides a nice elbow on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF). Neither has much in the way of defense so it should be at least somewhat entertaining. Santana’s superior aggression and volume bridge the technical gap enough for her to take a decision.
Prediction: Santana via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Devin Clark vs. Darko Stosic
Devin Clark (9-3) put an unsuccessful Octagon debut behind him to win three of his next four, including a decision over “Contender Series” standout Mike Rodriguez at UFC 223. He looked strong in the opening minutes of his fight with top prospect Aleksandar Rakic, but ran into a backfist that put him away near the end of the first round.
“Brown Bear” was booked to face prospect Ivan Shtyrkov in St. Petersburg last month, only for the “Ural Hulk” to withdraw because of an illness at the last minute.
A protege of the great Mirko Cro Cop, the only loss for Darko Stosic (13-1) came to current Rizin star Jiri Prochazka in the Serbian’s fifth pro fight. He stopped Jeremy Kimball in his Octagon debut last July and was booked to face Magomed Ankalaev in February, but wound up pulling out with an injury.
Eight of his professional victories have come via (technical) knockout.
This is the fifth consecutive time Clark’s been booked against a prospect if you count the scrapped bouts with Abdul-Kerim Edilov and Ivan Shtyrkov, which has me questioning UFC’s faith in his abilities. Not that they’re wrong to be skeptical, though; Clark’s had six UFC fights to fix his sloppy striking and tendency to overcommit and has yet to do so.
That’s not to say he doesn’t have a shot at victory here; Stosic was a tank of a Heavyweight and we’ve yet to see how his cardio holds up at 205 pounds. If Clark takes advantage of Stosic’s naked kicks and constantly pushes for takedowns, he could conceivably wear the hulking Serb out and take over late. More likely, though, his shoddy defense allows Stosic’s heavy hands to find a home before too long.
Prediction: Stosic via first-round knockout
155 lbs.: Danilo Belluardo vs. Joel Alvarez
Italy’s Danilo Belluardo (12-3) has won six straight since a 1-3 skid, ending all but one of those bouts inside the distance. His last bout saw him reach the judges for the first time since 2015, but ultimately take home a dominant decision over Brazilian Denilson Neves on the strength of his grappling.
He’ll give up four inches of reach to Joel Alvarez (15-2).
“El Fenomeno” racked up a 10-fight win streak on his way to the Octagon, where he faced Kazakh standout Damir Ismagulov in Prague. Alvarez struggled to bring his potent submission game to bear, ultimately making his first-ever trip to the judges in defeat.
Fourteen of his 15 stoppage wins have come by submissions.
I like this match up a lot, actually; Alvarez is of the Brian Ortega/Pedro Munhoz school of submission thought, pressuring until opponents shoot and leave their necks out, and Belluardo looks fit to indulge him. Conversely, Belluardo’s ground-and-pound is one of the strongest features of his game, meaning Alvarez is in for a world of hurt if he can’t snatch something on the way down or in his guard.
The key here might be that Belluardo seems to have a habit of leaving himself open to the guillotine on his entries, and while he managed to survive multiple such attempts against Neves, Alvarez looks to be a different sort of beast. Alvarez will get the type of fight he wants; it’s up to him to execute, and while I don’t see his approach working anywhere near the highest level, it should get him the victory here.
Prediction: Alvarez via first-round submission
170 lbs.: Sergey Khandozhko vs. Rostem Akman
Sergey Khandozhko (25-5-1) alternated losses and wins from June 2016 through the end of 2017, including a five-second head kick knockout of Mauricio Machado and a submission loss to UFC veteran Benny Alloway. “Honda” has since gone undefeated (2-0), picking up a pair of second-round stoppages and finishing his most recent opponent with a spinning back kick.
Ten of his 17 stoppage victories have come by submission.
Sweden’s Rostem Akman (5-0) had more than one dozen amateur bouts before making his professional debut in 2017, losing just twice in the unpaid ranks. His professional career has seen him stop all five of his pro opponents, four via (technical) knockout and one by heel hook.
“Kurdimus Prime” steps in for Bartosz Fabinski on less than one week’s notice.
Khandozhko dodged a bullet when Fabinski pulled out. “Honda” struggles with relentless grapplers and Fabinski is nothing if not ludicrously aggressive with his takedowns. I honestly can’t say how much easier a time he’ll have with Akman, though; his professional fights are hidden behind a paywall on FITE.tv. And as much as I enjoy my work, I’m not spending $30 to watch three of his fights for analysis.
Khandozhko has significantly more experience as a professional, has faced far better competition, and has the power to crack Akman’s chin. The Swede’s three-week turnaround comes back to bite him as Khandozhko wears him out with body kicks and the occasional takedown before finishing him late.
Prediction: Khandozhko via second-round technical knockout
Related
Finalized! UFC Stockholm Fight Card, ESPN+ Line Up
135 lbs.: Tonya Evinger vs. Lina Lansberg
Tonya Evinger (19-8) enjoyed a strong run as the Invicta Bantamweight champion on her way to the Octagon, replacing Megan Anderson against Cris “Cyborg” on short notice in her debut. After succumbing to the Brazilian’s knees, she took on the rising Aspen Ladd, who pounded out “Triple Threat” midway through the first round.
She has earned 15 stoppage wins as a professional, eight of them (technical) knockouts.
Lina Lansberg (8-4) likewise suffered stoppage losses to Cris “Cyborg” and Aspen Ladd early in her Octagon career as part of a 2-2 run. Her last fight saw her take on former Evinger victim Yana Kunitskaya, who out-grappled her for a unanimous decision victory.
“The Elbow Queen” will give up five inches of reach to Evinger.
Two of Lansberg’s last three losses came against smothering top control specialists. UFC has responded by pitting her against another ground artist. Stylistically, Evinger looks to hold all the cards.
Their respective performances against Kunitskaya suggest that Lansberg is in for a rough night. MMA math may be bunk, but Lansberg’s inability to handle “Foxy’s” wrestling is a bad omen against a capable takedown artist in Evinger. Unless Lansberg shows some improved scrambling or actually lands one of her titular strikes in the clinch, “Triple Threat” rides takedowns and ground-and-pound to a dominant victory.
Prediction: Evinger via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Stevie Ray vs. Leonardo Santos
Stevie Ray (22-8) opened his UFC career 5-1, including decisions over veterans Ross Pearson and Joe Lauzon, before dropping consecutive bouts to Paul Felder and Kajan Johnson. He managed to right the ship last against Jessin Ayari in Oct. 2018, winning a controversial decision over the German veteran in Moncton.
“Braveheart” has submitted eight professional foes and knocked out another six.
Leonardo Santos (16-3-1) — known for submitting Georges St-Pierrs at ADCC — reached the semifinals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” 2 before falling to Santiago Ponzinibbio, only to get a spot in the finals when the Argentinian injured his hand. He has yet to taste defeat in the Octagon, tapping William Macario to kick off a six-fight unbeaten streak that includes stoppages of Anthony Rocco Martin and Kevin Lee.
This will be the 39-year-old’s first fight since Oct. 2016.
I feel like Santos’ whole UFC career has consisted of me saying, “Oh, that guy’s a terrible style match up for him” and then Santos winning anyway. Now that he’s up against someone I actually think he beats more often than not, I can only assume something will go wrong and I’ll end up looking stupid again.
Still, got to call it like I see it.
Ray just isn’t terribly difficult to take down and Santos is too good a submission artist to let him survive for any length of time on the mat. “Braveheart” has the power to put him away early, but the likeliest outcome sees Santos score a quick takedown once the rust’s shaken off and lock up the rear-naked choke soon after.
Prediction: Santos via first-round submission
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 70-36Comment -
Anyone have an upset feeling with Anthony Smith?
I might be a bit coloured by mma media.Comment -
At +270 It might be worth a shot, I do think if Smith is to win this fight it won't be on points via decision so take him ITD for even better value at +315 if you do.. 5 round fight as well. Gus could get clipped, not out of the question..
I'm thinking Gus by decision and hedged with Smith ITD myself. Smith has shown to be typically hard to finish lately.https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Smith-29470
Sat 6/1 1005 Smith wins inside distance +315
1011 Gustafsson wins by 5 round decision +176 Comment -
Ilir Latifi is out now. Damn, really liked that play!Comment -
Who are y'all taking for this card? I've got Gus, Santos, Fishgold, and Evinger so far.Comment -
Lionheart was game during fight week versus Jon Jones. Monday he was game. Tuesday he was game. Whole week he was game. Something happened to him around weigh ins & he wasn't game anymore. Luke Rockhold vs Lionheart is a fight I wouldn't mind seeing. Rockhold can't fight Michael Bisping anymore. Like Captain Ahab chasing Moby Dick, it makes sense Luke Rockhold has to call out the next british guy he can get his hands on with Bisping out of his grasp.
Makwan Amirkhani's 800+ amateur wrestling matches have to mean something. He's struggled to find a good gym to train in throughout his career. Whether or not he's training somewhere good for this fight will have a huge affect on the outcome.Comment -
Volkan fight cancelled.. Bets refunded
.. https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2019/5/3...olkan-oezdemir
$230.00 $200.00 Cancelled 6/1/19 3:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Volkan Oezdemir -115* vs Ilir Latifi Comment -
^^That Volkan fight was the one fight I felt the most confident about on this card, I'm pissed off with that cancellation!!! SOB!!
That's why I bet it early and for 2 bills straight and on each book when the odds first came out..Comment -
24:56
Makwan Amirkhani says in his off season, he had 6 amateur boxing fights (going 4-2 against good competition, he says some of his opponents had between 50 to 100 total amateur boxing matches) and spent 10 straight months training pure boxing to develop his stand up skills and round out his game.
He says he re-dedicated himself to the sport. Would be cool to see.Comment -
also had this, annoyingVolkan fight cancelled.. Bets refunded.. https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2019/5/3...olkan-oezdemir
$230.00 $200.00 Cancelled 6/1/19 3:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Volkan Oezdemir -115* vs Ilir Latifi Comment -
fascinating. thats how its done.
24:56
Makwan Amirkhani says in his off season, he had 6 amateur boxing fights (going 4-2 against good competition, he says some of his opponents had between 50 to 100 total amateur boxing matches) and spent 10 straight months training pure boxing to develop his stand up skills and round out his game.
He says he re-dedicated himself to the sport. Would be cool to see.Comment -
Let's go Raptors!!! All fighters make weight!! One more week till the best fighter in the world.
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Leaning gus myself 