UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway (June 03, 2017)

[NUTSonYAchin]

me.

oh ok. The guy who lost 2k on JDS and was 100% sure he would win.

[bjpenn85]

being 4 inches taller does nothing when your reach is less imo
itll just make his legs more of twigs to absolutely feast on leg kicks... One good thing holloway has going for him is he can switch stances very effectively so when one leg starts getting chewed up he can change his stance without much trouble



and Edgar likes to throw punches in bunches with forward pressure similiar to Holloway imo but also has the wrestling , Aldo didnt throw a leg kick for the first 3 rounds last fight which was great game planning , thats why this fight he will be able to show more diversity of strikes not being scared of the takedowns


Aldo is the best guy Holloway will fight on this current 10 fight streak, but Holloway is one of the best guys Aldo has fought as well... should be fireworks regardless

I learned one thing from the book fighternomic, which is absolutely a book full of trash and not relevant for betting at all. Do not recommend it, just to make that clear.

He talked about fighters in the ufc, seemd to undergo an evolution. Longer reach, while they at the same time are able to maintain a rather short statue which is an advantage because you may retain muscle mass, and power that you can transmit through your little midget torso. Aldo is that guy. He isnt really tall, but he has longer reach than the taller holloway. Its natures way of giving back something to the midgets because of their lack of attraction to the female gender.

[turbozed]

I think Medeiros is pretty average. Sort of a cut rate version of Holloway. My biggest exposure on this card is Silva+Medeiros Won't Go Distance. Think they will brawl it out until someone gets finished.

What's your thought process on this one? I'm not disagreeing with you but I was looking to bet under too but became hesitant after watching tape for the following reasons:

Medeiros has a chin. Granted, he sticks it in the air for it to be hit, but he didn't go down even after Poirier landed absolute bombs on him. The fight was stopped on strikes, but after many accurate and hard strikes. I'm not sure if Erick Silva throws that much, that accurately, and that hard, especially in his past few fights with the camp change to Kings. He's a lot more controlled and waits on his opponent now. Also, I don't see much knockout power in Medeiros' fists so Silva's suspect chin might not be tapped. I suppose he might go down to a straight shot like in the Taleb fight, but Yancy doesn't seem like the type to put people's lights out like that. So this leaves maybe submissions after one or the other gets stunned?

How do you see it going down?

[JIBBBY]

Just a quick look at Erick Silva's record and a disturbing UFC trend appears. He can't string wins together and he has never beaten an established, above average fighter. Going back to 2013 - Wins over Jason High, Takenori Sato, Mike Rhodes, and Josh Koscheck (2015 version). Not exactly a murderer's row. And then his losses - Jon Fitch, Dong Hyun Kim, Matt Brown, Neal Magny, Nordine Taleb. It seems like he's firmly planted as a mid-level guy, even if his skills seem to suggest he should do better. The question is, where does Medeiros fall on this list? He's definitely not a nobody. Can Silva actually get a win over someone who is currently relevant?

Both Yancy and Silva both suck.. Can on can violence.. Flip a coin almost.. Leaning Yancy ever so slightly myself though..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hey Turbo, here's my thought process.

In 13 UFC fights, Silva has gone the distance only twice. Both times he lost to guys not known for their finishing ability, Jon Fitch and Neil Magny. In recent fights, Silva's chin has been shown to be subpar. Whether he was being knocked out by light puncher Nordine Taleb or dropped multiple times against Luan Chagas, Silva has shown that he can't take big shots without getting rocked.

In terms of skillset, Silva's power is a bit overrated since he has only knocked out absolute jobbers like Takenori Sato. However, I think his best skills are in an element of his game that is rarely talked about, his BJJ. 5 of Silva's 7 UFC wins come by way of Submission from a variety of different methods including RNCs, Guillotine, Arm-Triangle, and Reverse Triangle Armbar. Silva is an opportunistic finisher who is able to submit opponents at any point in the fight, as shown by his R3 back take and RNC of Chagas with a minute left in their bout.

For Medeiros, I agree that he has a chin and good heart to stay in a fight after taking punishment, a trait I see in many Hawaiians. I consider Yancy to be tough but not durable. What I mean by that is his chin holds up to big shots but his striking defense is so poor that he eats bombs in almost every fight. While he is rarely knocked out cold, he gets rocked in plenty of fights and has taken a lot of damage throughout his career. At some point, this strategy no longer becomes viable. It is also important to note that although judges are good, refs are often biased towards Brazilian fighters. If we see a situation similar to Poirier vs. Medeiros, I think the ref will step in quickly in favor of Silva.

Finally, I think Medeiros has good finishing ability with 4 of his 5 UFC victories coming by way of stoppage. He has awkward volume striking and goes for the finish when he smells blood. Moreover, he is aggressive on the mat and is capable of catching Silva in transition.

On Saturday, Silva and Medeiros will come to brawl be it on the feet or in grappling exchanges and I really think someone is getting finished before we reach the final bell.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Hugo the one fight I don't see lasting for very long is the Belfort/Marquardt scrap.. I doubt that one gets out of the first round.. Vitor is a one round fighter these days pretty much.. Marquardt chin is questionably shot but still can mix it up offensively.. If Vitor doesn't get the KO early on I think he gets dropped and stopped himself...

Bamgbose is another fighter that is basically KO or bust early on.. It's a shame these odds are both jacked up on both the UNDERS though.. ... I may still parlay up both unders for a benny though..

UFC 212 - Middleweight 3 rounds - HSBC Arena - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - PPV

Sat 6/3		1201 Nate Marquardt		+140	o1½ +175
11:00PM		1202 Vitor Belfort		-160	u1½ -210
UFC 212 - Middleweight 3 rounds - HSBC Arena - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - PPV
Sat 6/3		1301 Oluwale Bamgbose		+230	o1½ +210
10:30PM		1302 Paulo Henrique Costa		-270	u1½ -250

GOING BY JUST THE NUMBERS -

Vitor hasn't gotten out of the 2nd round since 2012 and 8 fights ago.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Vitor-Belfort-156

Bamgbose has never fought past one round ever - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Oluwale-Bamgbose-103153

[Hugo de Naranja]

^^ Hugo the one fight I don't see lasting for very long is the Belfort/Marquardt scrap.. I doubt that one gets out of the first round.. Vitor is a one round fighter these days pretty much.. Marquardt chin is questionably shot but still can mix it up offensively.. If Vitor doesn't get the KO early on I think he gets dropped and stopped himself...

Bamgbose is another fighter that is basically KO or bust early on.. It's a shame these odds are both jacked up on both the UNDERS though.. ... I may still parlay up both unders for a benny though..

UFC 212 - Middleweight 3 rounds - HSBC Arena - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - PPV

Sat 6/3		1201 Nate Marquardt		+140	o1½ +175
11:00PM		1202 Vitor Belfort		-160	u1½ -210
UFC 212 - Middleweight 3 rounds - HSBC Arena - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - PPV
Sat 6/3		1301 Oluwale Bamgbose		+230	o1½ +210
10:30PM		1302 Paulo Henrique Costa		-270	u1½ -250

GOING BY JUST THE NUMBERS -

Vitor hasn't gotten out of the 2nd round since 2012 and 8 fights ago.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Vitor-Belfort-156

Bamgbose has never fought past one round ever - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Oluwale-Bamgbose-103153

I support the idea of parlaying them up at small plus money.

[turbozed]

Hey Turbo, here's my thought process.

In 13 UFC fights, Silva has gone the distance only twice. Both times he lost to guys not known for their finishing ability, Jon Fitch and Neil Magny. In recent fights, Silva's chin has been shown to be subpar. Whether he was being knocked out by light puncher Nordine Taleb or dropped multiple times against Luan Chagas, Silva has shown that he can't take big shots without getting rocked.

In terms of skillset, Silva's power is a bit overrated since he has only knocked out absolute jobbers like Takenori Sato. However, I think his best skills are in an element of his game that is rarely talked about, his BJJ. 5 of Silva's 7 UFC wins come by way of Submission from a variety of different methods including RNCs, Guillotine, Arm-Triangle, and Reverse Triangle Armbar. Silva is an opportunistic finisher who is able to submit opponents at any point in the fight, as shown by his R3 back take and RNC of Chagas with a minute left in their bout.

For Medeiros, I agree that he has a chin and good heart to stay in a fight after taking punishment, a trait I see in many Hawaiians. I consider Yancy to be tough but not durable. What I mean by that is his chin holds up to big shots but his striking defense is so poor that he eats bombs in almost every fight. While he is rarely knocked out cold, he gets rocked in plenty of fights and has taken a lot of damage throughout his career. At some point, this strategy no longer becomes viable. It is also important to note that although judges are good, refs are often biased towards Brazilian fighters. If we see a situation similar to Poirier vs. Medeiros, I think the ref will step in quickly in favor of Silva.

Finally, I think Medeiros has good finishing ability with 4 of his 5 UFC victories coming by way of stoppage. He has awkward volume striking and goes for the finish when he smells blood. Moreover, he is aggressive on the mat and is capable of catching Silva in transition.

On Saturday, Silva and Medeiros will come to brawl be it on the feet or in grappling exchanges and I really think someone is getting finished before we reach the final bell.

Thanks for the detailed write up Hugo. I never even considered hometown early stoppages as a factor. When Silva gets tagged he shuts off completely, so it will be less of a factor going the other way, which is also good (or at least neutral) for the under.

[mdunlap3]

Probably his most likely pathway to victory.. Not convinced he can out work Aldo for decision win if it goes the distance.. Aldo's chin was cracked fairly easily and fast against McGregor as well..
Max has won 2 of his last 4 fights by KO also. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Max-Holloway-3867

This. For some reason, it feels like Max is free-rolling and the pressure of the world is on Aldo's shoulders.

[Sanity Check]

Erick Silva pre USADA / post USADA.

Did random PED testing make a difference?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks for the detailed write up Hugo. I never even considered hometown early stoppages as a factor. When Silva gets tagged he shuts off completely, so it will be less of a factor going the other way, which is also good (or at least neutral) for the under.

No problem. Brazil's judges always get a bad wrap for hometown judging but I think they are actually very neutral. I've noticed their referees are often biased with quick separations, standups, and stoppage calls in favor of Brazilian fighters. That is something to watch out for this weekend.

[JIBBBY]

This. For some reason, it feels like Max is free-rolling and the pressure of the world is on Aldo's shoulders.

Well he is fighting in Brazil...Sure the pressure is on Aldo.. He's fought in big fights before though..

I just know when you reach your 30's like Aldo has it gets a little harder to weight cut. I'm still very curious to see if he makes the weight and isn't to drained or rushed to the hospital after.. Aldo is a muscular guy and doesn't carry much body fat... Holloway is 25 years old and a confident young buck, I think he will show in this fight and give Aldo a hell of a test..

This is a main event I am really look forward to watching as a fan but not as a gambler .. I think this fight could really go either way.. Aldo is a great champion, Max Hollaway is an upcoming fighter with a 10 fight fight win streak going for him..


Aldo can leg kick that's for sure!!!! Holloway has skinny assss legs as well, not sure how many of these he can take????

[plekz]

aldo already weighed in just fine. if anything it was max that looked very drawn out.

[JIBBBY]

aldo already weighed in just fine. if anything it was max that looked very drawn out.

Yep, just checking the weigh ins now...

[mdunlap3]

Aldo looked ok to me at weigh in.

[turbozed]

Bamgbose has never fought past one round ever - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Oluwale-Bamgbose-103153

Wait a second. Bamgbose made it out of the last round and into a 3 round decision his last fight.

In that fight, he also showed pretty decent cardio and defense on the ground against Mutante. The guy is explosive and puts guys out in the first round, often but that's largely a factor the quality of his opponents. He's actually an awkward bum-rushing outfighter. Borrachinha is a bit of a stalker, so hypothetically it can be a lot of Bamgbose dancing around on the outside in the early stages. It can end at any second because both dudes pack serious power, but Bamgbose is a one round fighter by circumstance, not by design.

[JIBBBY]

Wait a second. Bamgbose made it out of the last round and into a 3 round decision his last fight.

In that fight, he also showed pretty decent cardio and defense on the ground against Mutante. The guy is explosive and puts guys out in the first round, often but that's largely a factor the quality of his opponents. He's actually an awkward bum-rushing outfighter. Borrachinha is a bit of a stalker, so hypothetically it can be a lot of Bamgbose dancing around on the outside in the early stages. It can end at any second because both dudes pack serious power, but Bamgbose is a one round fighter by circumstance, not by design.

I stand corrected and you are right Turbo. I forgot about the last fight.. I should have looked at my own sherdog link.. Thanks for the correction.. Still basically a 1 round fighter otherwise just like his opponent Paulo....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paulo...e-Costa-147165

[Shagdogy]

Hey Turbo, here's my thought process.

In 13 UFC fights, Silva has gone the distance only twice. Both times he lost to guys not known for their finishing ability, Jon Fitch and Neil Magny. In recent fights, Silva's chin has been shown to be subpar. Whether he was being knocked out by light puncher Nordine Taleb or dropped multiple times against Luan Chagas, Silva has shown that he can't take big shots without getting rocked.

In terms of skillset, Silva's power is a bit overrated since he has only knocked out absolute jobbers like Takenori Sato. However, I think his best skills are in an element of his game that is rarely talked about, his BJJ. 5 of Silva's 7 UFC wins come by way of Submission from a variety of different methods including RNCs, Guillotine, Arm-Triangle, and Reverse Triangle Armbar. Silva is an opportunistic finisher who is able to submit opponents at any point in the fight, as shown by his R3 back take and RNC of Chagas with a minute left in their bout.

For Medeiros, I agree that he has a chin and good heart to stay in a fight after taking punishment, a trait I see in many Hawaiians. I consider Yancy to be tough but not durable. What I mean by that is his chin holds up to big shots but his striking defense is so poor that he eats bombs in almost every fight. While he is rarely knocked out cold, he gets rocked in plenty of fights and has taken a lot of damage throughout his career. At some point, this strategy no longer becomes viable. It is also important to note that although judges are good, refs are often biased towards Brazilian fighters. If we see a situation similar to Poirier vs. Medeiros, I think the ref will step in quickly in favor of Silva.

Finally, I think Medeiros has good finishing ability with 4 of his 5 UFC victories coming by way of stoppage. He has awkward volume striking and goes for the finish when he smells blood. Moreover, he is aggressive on the mat and is capable of catching Silva in transition.

On Saturday, Silva and Medeiros will come to brawl be it on the feet or in grappling exchanges and I really think someone is getting finished before we reach the final bell.

Good point about Medeiros's volume striking. Silva is hittable and he has an unfortunate habit of covering up and not moving or countering when he gets hit, which means guys that throw combos and come at him in flurries can land and often land more than once. Medeiros fits that bill.

[Shagdogy]

I need some advice from the hedge masters out there - Hugo and Jibbs. You know I tend to only play straight, but there's two fights here that seem prime for hedge opportunities.

Matthew Lopez has good cardio, pressure, decent hands, and a very large grappling advantage over Eduardo. He should win this fight and I have him up to -220-230 so I see some value. Meanwhile I only see ONE path to victory for Eduardo which is TKO. Lopez did get rocked by Gagnon but recovered very quickly and outworked Gagnon the rest of the way. It feels like a very safe play to take Lopez to win with Eduardo TKO/KO hedge.

The next one is Borrachinha vs. Bamgbose. Same deal here. Borrachinha has the youth, home field advantage, better wrestling, better kicks, power in his hands, and a chin that has never once failed him. He should win this fight. However, if Bamgbose is going to win it has to be TKO/KO. He doesn't have any wrestling or BJJ, but he does have power and Borrachinha is willing to brawl and lets himself get hit a little. Again, it feels quite safe to play Borrachinha to win hedged with Bamgbose TKO/KO.

Thoughts on these? When you look for hedges on these, is there any particular math with the lines that you are looking for?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I need some advice from the hedge masters out there - Hugo and Jibbs. You know I tend to only play straight, but there's two fights here that seem prime for hedge opportunities.

Matthew Lopez has good cardio, pressure, decent hands, and a very large grappling advantage over Eduardo. He should win this fight and I have him up to -220-230 so I see some value. Meanwhile I only see ONE path to victory for Eduardo which is TKO. Lopez did get rocked by Gagnon but recovered very quickly and outworked Gagnon the rest of the way. It feels like a very safe play to take Lopez to win with Eduardo TKO/KO hedge.

The next one is Borrachinha vs. Bamgbose. Same deal here. Borrachinha has the youth, home field advantage, better wrestling, better kicks, power in his hands, and a chin that has never once failed him. He should win this fight. However, if Bamgbose is going to win it has to be TKO/KO. He doesn't have any wrestling or BJJ, but he does have power and Borrachinha is willing to brawl and lets himself get hit a little. Again, it feels quite safe to play Borrachinha to win hedged with Bamgbose TKO/KO.

Thoughts on these? When you look for hedges on these, is there any particular math with the lines that you are looking for?

I'd play Eduardo ITD (+375) since he has 13 submission wins and a club and sub finish seems possible for him.

Bamgbose KO/TKO is fine but I think Bamgbose Round 1 (+500) is a little better. Don't really see him getting a finish later but you could stick with KO/TKO for a bit of extra safety.

[Shagdogy]

I'd play Eduardo ITD (+375) since he has 13 submission wins and a club and sub finish seems possible for him.

Bamgbose KO/TKO is fine but I think Bamgbose Round 1 (+500) is a little better. Don't really see him getting a finish later but you could stick with KO/TKO for a bit of extra safety.

Not a bad thought about Eduardo ITD. I've kind of written off his sub ability for a couple reasons. One, he's never subbed any UFC level competition. Two, Lopez has a much stronger wrestling base and size advantage and I don't see him getting controlled. But landing a big punch and then getting an RNC is definitely possible.

Only reason I would prefer Bamgbose TKO/KO over round 1 is Borrachinha has never been out of round one. He's super muscular. What if he doesn't get the early finish and gasses?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not a bad thought about Eduardo ITD. I've kind of written off his sub ability for a couple reasons. One, he's never subbed any UFC level competition. Two, Lopez has a much stronger wrestling base and size advantage and I don't see him getting controlled. But landing a big punch and then getting an RNC is definitely possible.

Only reason I would prefer Bamgbose TKO/KO over round 1 is Borrachinha has never been out of round one. He's super muscular. What if he doesn't get the early finish and gasses?

Eduardo hasn't fought many UFC fights so small sample size there. Lopez did get controlled on the mat and subbed by Yahya but should have the wrestling advantage here.

Certainly possible but I think Bamgbose gasses harder. Is style is so energy inefficient imo.

[Shagdogy]

Crazy to see Assuncao a +170 dog but I can't say I disagree with the line. Marlon Moraes is a beast and he looks absolutely chiseled and ready at the weigh ins.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Crazy to see Assuncao a +170 dog but I can't say I disagree with the line. Marlon Moraes is a beast and he looks absolutely chiseled and ready at the weigh ins.

Think this bout will look a lot like Assuncao vs. Dillashaw II

[mdunlap3]

penetrate TONS of value on Assuncao here...guy has really only lost to killers.

[firekillex]

Whats everybody's fav play of the night for UFC 212 other then main fight ?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Whats everybody's fav play of the night for UFC 212 other then main fight ?

Gadelha Decision and -3.5. Think she is the Khabib of Women's Strawweight

[mdunlap3]

Gadelha Decision and -3.5. Think she is the Khabib of Women's Strawweight

Whoa. High praise there sir.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Whoa. High praise there sir.

Best TDs in the division by far with a questionable gastank. Would take her in a 3-round fight against most anyone, probably even JJ.

[mdunlap3]

Best TDs in the division by far with a questionable gastank. Would take her in a 3-round fight against most anyone, probably even JJ.

Agree. I feel like if she wrestles her, she should win. But, think if it stays on the feet we could see Karo edge out a decision. Karo is actually pretty nice on the feet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Agree. I feel like if she wrestles her, she should win. But, think if it stays on the feet we could see Karo edge out a decision. Karo is actually pretty nice on the feet.

I'm a fan of KK but I think Gadelha actually has more technical striking and better defense on the feet.

[mdunlap3]

I'm a fan of KK but I think Gadelha actually has more technical striking and better defense on the feet.

I get the point fighter vibe from Karolina, Claudia feels more like a brawler to me for some reason, not sure why.

[firekillex]

andrade vs claudia would be a sweet fight
but im on claudia decision as well wish the price was a bit better though
BOL

[TPowell]

My picks for ToutMaster (have to pick every fight). Feel great about everything but the main card. Thinking maybe Bamgbose at +230 is worth a shot instead of Paulo. Need the points


Holloway
Claudia
Nate
Paulo
Yancy
Assuncao
Carlos JR
Eduardo
Iuri
Moyle
Chagas
Alcantra

[JC2008]

My picks for ToutMaster (have to pick every fight). Feel great about everything but the main card. Thinking maybe Bamgbose at +230 is worth a shot instead of Paulo. Need the points


Holloway
Claudia
Nate
Paulo
Yancy
Assuncao
Carlos JR
Eduardo
Iuri
Moyle
Chagas
Alcantra

That would be shocking but I think Bamgbose is getting murked. Badly. First round.