UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway (June 03, 2017)

[JIBBBY]

That would be shocking but I think Bamgbose is getting murked. Badly. First round.

Agreed..

[JIBBBY]

penetrate TONS of value on Assuncao here...guy has really only lost to killers.

Have you watched Marlon Moraes fight? Assencao is tough dude no doubt, well rounded but I think the striking and speed advantage clearly favors Marlon.. I've watched just about all his fights in WSOF and I'm impressed with the way he brings it standing..

I'm liking Moraes myself and there is even a chance he might get the KO but it probably goes to decision since Rafael is so damn tough to finish.. Granite chin.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Raphael-Assuncao-9574

This is a huge step up in competition and Marlon is facing octagon jitters and fighting a tough Brazilian in Brazil. Tall order for Marlon but I think he answers the bell with flying colors..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marlon-Moraes-30936

Odds are brutal on the straight

UFC 212 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - HSBC Arena - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - FS1

Sat 6/3		1501 Marlon Moraes		-190	o2½ -255
9:30PM		1502 Raphael Assuncao		+165	u2½ +215

I think Moraes out points Raphael with his speed and striking round after round..

1507 Moraes wins by 3 round decision

+125

Certainly gonna hedge with the ITD but maybe just the submission considering Rafael has 11 sub wins on his record and only 3 wins by KO...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Raphael-Assuncao-9574 At these prices the hedge is probably worth it..

1509 Assuncao wins inside distance

+600

1531 Assuncao wins by submission

+1458

[Hugo de Naranja]

What about Moraes -3.5 (+125)? Covers finish and wide decision.

[JIBBBY]

What about Moraes -3.5 (+125)? Covers finish and wide decision.

Solid Hugo good eye... I may hit it..

Still working this card late tonight.. Really trying to get it right after the last card...

[JIBBBY]

This write up is dead on IMO. Beltran a good looking dog here but not until I see him at weigh ins.

You still going with Beltran Shaggy? I'm finding it hard to bet against the undefeated Brazilian fighting in Brazil.. Not so sure the 0 will go..

This is the last fight I'm having a bit of trouble playing on the card.. Don't like the straight odds for Deiveson.. Hugo how you playing this? Beltan has been stopped a few times in fights, and DF has 5 wins by sub and 5 wins by KO but I can't vouge for any fighters he fought outside of the UFC.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Deive...ueiredo-110485

2109 Alcantara wins inside distance

+172

UFC 212 - Flyweight 3 rounds - HSBC Arena - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - UFC Fight Pass

Sat 6/3		2101 Marco Beltran		+125	o1½ -210
6:30PM		2102 Deiveson Alcantara		-145	u1½ +175

Marco
Beltran
"Psycho"
vs
Deiveson
Figueiredo

MEXICO
Country
BRAZIL

8-5-0
Record
11-0-0

25%
KO/TKO
45%

50%
SUB
45%

25%
DEC
9%

68 in
Height
65 in

125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs

69 in
Reach
68 in

39 in
Leg Reach
38 in

[JIBBBY]

Some of the KO fastest props are tempting as well... Looking outside the box now with props..

11011 Vitor Belfort wins fastest KO

+400

11009 Nate Marquardt wins fastest KO

+800

11013 Oluwale Bamgbose wins fastest KO

+800

11015 Paulo Henrique Costa wins fastest KO

+400

FASTEST SUB FINISHES - I'm pretty sure one of these 2 land..

11077 Antonio Carlos Junior wins fastest SUB

+450

11079 Matthew Lopez wins fastest SUB

+430

[Shagdogy]

penetrate TONS of value on Assuncao here...guy has really only lost to killers.

And Moraes is a killer. Assuncao has been losing some grit lately too IMO. Moraes is Brazilian too so hes not on enemy turf. I expect a passing of torch with clear Moraes victory, maybe even stoppage.

[Shagdogy]

You still going with Beltran Shaggy? I'm finding it hard to bet against the undefeated Brazilian fighting in Brazil.. Not so sure the 0 will go..

Yes. He looked a bit stringy at weigh ins but he seemed to have energy. Didn't look like he was feeling poorly from it. You have to dig but you can find some recent tape of Deiveson and he just looks sloppy to me and not all that dynamic. I do think he is durable and has a little bit of power, but for me, Beltran has the skill and length to stay outside, use kicks to tally points and land some decent staight counters when Deiveson rushes in with his wide right hand.

It is hard to know the competition he was facing, but to my eye, Alcantara also doesn't have good enough takedowns to land often or secure for any amount of time vs. Beltran. If I'm wrong about that, then he can definitely win by smothering Beltran, but I'll take the dog who I think is more skilled here. I think Deiveson chases him around the cage looking for a big right hand and Beltran will spend most of the fight not being there for it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

And Moraes is a killer. Assuncao has been losing some grit lately too IMO. Moraes is Brazilian too so hes not on enemy turf. I expect a passing of torch with clear Moraes victory, maybe even stoppage.

^^^What he said

[Hugo de Naranja]

You still going with Beltran Shaggy? I'm finding it hard to bet against the undefeated Brazilian fighting in Brazil.. Not so sure the 0 will go..

This is the last fight I'm having a bit of trouble playing on the card.. Don't like the straight odds for Deiveson.. Hugo how you playing this? Beltan has been stopped a few times in fights, and DF has 5 wins by sub and 5 wins by KO but I can't vouge for any fighters he fought outside of the UFC.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Deive...ueiredo-110485

2109 Alcantara wins inside distance

+172

UFC 212 - Flyweight 3 rounds - HSBC Arena - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - UFC Fight Pass

Sat 6/3		2101 Marco Beltran		+125	o1½ -210
6:30PM		2102 Deiveson Alcantara		-145	u1½ +175

Marco
Beltran
"Psycho"
vs
Deiveson
Figueiredo

MEXICO
Country
BRAZIL

8-5-0
Record
11-0-0

25%
KO/TKO
45%

50%
SUB
45%

25%
DEC
9%

68 in
Height
65 in

125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs

69 in
Reach
68 in

39 in
Leg Reach
38 in

Fight #1: Beltran vs. Figueiredo (DEBUT)
Figueiredo ITD (+146) 1u
Figueiredo Round 1 (+375) .5u

Hedge:
Beltran Submission (+1000) .25u

[Shagdogy]

Fight #1: Beltran vs. Figueiredo (DEBUT)
Figueiredo ITD (+146) 1u
Figueiredo Round 1 (+375) .5u

Hedge:
Beltran Submission (+1000) .25u

Uh oh.

[Shagdogy]

Hugo are you playing the "always bet the guy with 1,000 different names" lean on that one? Deiveson Alcantara Figueredo Daico Deus de Guerra.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

looking forward to this card..

no bet on the main event but pulling hard for Holloway

[JIBBBY]

^^ Thanks for the input guys on the first fight of the card.. Still left scratching my head on that first fight with Beltran lol. Maybe I pass, or throw a 50 post on Figueiredo ITD +172.. Game time decision.. ...

I just hate betting on undefeated fighters that had more then 10 pro fights.. Shag you could be right though with Beltran..

[JIBBBY]

looking forward to this card..

no bet on the main event but pulling hard for Holloway

Can't blame ya for the no play Jake.. Tough fight to call.. I'm going with Holloway by KO and Aldo by decision hedged for profit either way myself.. Not loading up though....

[KalouKalou]

Can't blame ya for the no play Jake.. Tough fight to call.. I'm going with Holloway by KO and Aldo by decision hedged for profit either way myself.. Not loading up though....

I really think this is the best way to play it but I prefer Holloway (scorecards = no action) +110

[JIBBBY]

Hugo I'm tailing you on your play in that first fight.. I like the hedge in that fight with the Beltran by sub.. I'll gamble, small stuff to start off.

$50.00

$83.50

Pending

6/3/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2109 Alcantara wins inside distance +167* vs Not Alcantara inside distance

Hedge

$15.00

$162.50

Pending

6/3/17 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2127 Beltran wins by submission +1083* vs Any other result

[JC2008]

What do you all think about the Alcantara/Kelleher fight?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo are you playing the "always bet the guy with 1,000 different names" lean on that one? Deiveson Alcantara Figueredo Daico Deus de Guerra.

More names = better fighter always. No other reasoning here haha.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What do you all think about the Alcantara/Kelleher fight?

Iuri by early sub.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I really think this is the best way to play it but I prefer Holloway (scorecards = no action) +110

On that too. Think he is the more likely finisher.

[JIBBBY]

UFC 212 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - HSBC Arena - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - FS1

Sat 6/3		1801 Brian Kelleher		+275	o2½ -125
8:00PM		1802 Iuri Alcantara		-335	u2½ +105

What do you all think about the Alcantara/Kelleher fight?

No gimmie fight JC either way.. Alcantara has been ripping off sub wins in his last 2 fights.. Kelleher has lost 4 fights by sub... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Kelleher-53666

Kelleher Octagon debut against a Brazilian in Brazil is a tall order.. Odds suck on the straight so I played it like this.. Small play...

$50.00

$95.00

Pending

6/3/17 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1831 Alcantara wins by submission +190* vs Any other result

FS1



Iuri
Alcantara
"Marajo"
vs
Brian
Kelleher
"Boom"

BRAZIL
Country
UNITED STATES

34-7-0, 1NC
Record
16-7-0

38%
KO/TKO
38%

38%
SUB
44%

21%
DEC
19%

69 in
Height
66 in

135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs

71 in
Reach
66 in

40 in
Leg Reach
38 in

Significant Strikes

2.65
Landed per minute
000

46.46%
Accuracy
000%

2.54
Absorbed P/M
000

48.21%
Defense
000%

[mdunlap3]

Wasn't that pumped for this card during the leadup, but ill be honest im getting a little steamed up for tonight guys.

[JIBBBY]

Wasn't that pumped for this card during the leadup, but ill be honest im getting a little steamed up for tonight guys.

I actually think this card is kinda garbage for talent.. Shiity fighters, old fighters, and a bunch of cans.. Still worth betting on though as always..

Best fight is the main event and really that's the one fight I'm looking forward to watching the most on this entire card.. Worst part is this event is PPV... There should be alot of KO's and finishes though so maybe it will be good... A few of the early fights are decent.. The Chick fight is decent with Claudia as well if you like the chicks..

My honest take anyways.. Most of my bets are just in the 50 to 100 range.. Going easy with this event.. I probably won't be winning alot or losing alot either way..

[firekillex]

on aldo myself decision
but if anybody likes holloway TKO/KO +550 range could have value if you think he can finish Aldo late

[turbozed]

Anyone here think that Spicely has a shot against Shoeface? I was able to get a good amount of Shoeface at -212 and looks like I can arb out at +243. Seems like a bad matchup for Spicely since I can't think of a clear way to victory.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone here think that Spicely has a shot against Shoeface? I was able to get a good amount of Shoeface at -212 and looks like I can arb out at +243. Seems like a bad matchup for Spicely since I can't think of a clear way to victory.

Think Spicely Decision is almost impossible. He could maybe catch a sub or flash KO but that's unlikely. If you want to arb out I'd go with Spicely ITD (+500) or Sub (+600)

[Shagdogy]

Think Spicely Decision is almost impossible. He could maybe catch a sub or flash KO but that's unlikely. If you want to arb out I'd go with Spicely ITD (+500) or Sub (+600)

Hard to disagree with this. I would do the same if I was in earlier and could've gotten ACJ at a better price. I'm considering playing fight does not go to decision, but I'll most likely lay off.

[Ty$]

My 3 main plays

Aldo by DEC
Nate by TKO
Medeiros by TKO

BOL GUYS

[JIBBBY]

Think Spicely Decision is almost impossible. He could maybe catch a sub or flash KO but that's unlikely. If you want to arb out I'd go with Spicely ITD (+500) or Sub (+600)

Spicely is horrible standing and decent on the ground.. Kinda mirrors his opponent Junior actually.. So it comes down to who's better on the ground or standing? Both are one trick ponies but I think Spicely gets out muscled and grounded in this fight and maybe sub'd.. I think it's a question whether or not Spicely get's sub'd out or pounded out in my mind from the bottom position?...

Junior is a pure submission fighter and wins most of his fights by way of sub..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Antonio-Carlos-Jr-143157 He's Brazilian and I'm sure he will be trying for the take down and sub out with Spicely for sure... There is a good chance Junior can win by decision but I'm rolling the dice with the sub myself.. After all Junior is a 2nd degree Brazilian Black Belt under Hélder "Bob Esponja" Medeiros

There is still a very solid chance Junior wins this fight by Decision though if they both x each other out standing and or on the ground..

I'm rolling the dice with this but very concerned Junior wins by decision.. That's why I only bet $50..... I don't think Spicely can win a decision with the judges in Brazil also.....

$50.00

$150.00

Pending

6/3/17 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1631 Junior wins by submission +300* vs Any other result

Antonio
Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
vs
Eric
Spicely
"Zebrinha"

BRAZIL
Country
UNITED STATES

8-2-0, 1NC
Record
10-2-0

0%
KO/TKO
20%

75%
SUB
50%

25%
DEC
20%

[Hugo de Naranja]

Spicely is horrible standing and decent on the ground.. Kinda mirrors his opponent Junior actually.. So it comes down to who's better on the ground or standing? Both are one trick ponies but I think Spicely gets out muscled and grounded in this fight and maybe sub'd.. I think it's a question whether or not Spicely get's sub'd out or pounded out in my mind from the bottom position?...

Junior is a pure submission fighter and wins most of his fights by way of sub..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Antonio-Carlos-Jr-143157 He's Brazilian and I'm sure he will be trying for the take down and sub out with Spicely for sure... There is a good chance Junior can win by decision but I'm rolling the dice with the sub myself.. After all Junior is a 2nd degree Brazilian Black Belt under Hélder "Bob Esponja" Medeiros

There is still a very solid chance Junior wins this fight by Decision though if they both x each other out standing and or on the ground..

I'm rolling the dice with this but very concerned Junior wins by decision.. That's why I only bet $50.....

$50.00

$150.00

Pending

6/3/17 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1631 Junior wins by submission +300* vs Any other result

Antonio
Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
vs
Eric
Spicely
"Zebrinha"

BRAZIL
Country
UNITED STATES

8-2-0, 1NC
Record
10-2-0

0%
KO/TKO
20%

75%
SUB
50%

25%
DEC
20%

Junior is a way better striker imo

[BIGDAY]

Locked Aldo up.

GL on the card tonight fellas!

[JIBBBY]

Junior is a way better striker imo

I originally just wanted to play this prop but the odds are crapola ..

1640

Junior (scorecards = no action)

-320

[turbozed]

I originally just wanted to play this prop but the odds are crapola ..

1640

Junior (scorecards = no action)

-320

Not sure about that one. I think if it goes to the scorecards then it's almost surely Shoeface controlling Spicely for the fight. Spicelys path to victory is an unlikely sub against a stronger grappler.

[blumpkin]

Thoughts on yancy/Silva?