UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov (April 22, 2017)

[PaperTrail07]

credit to lobov for hanging in there wow

[Hugo de Naranja]

5 more mins Lobov

[firekillex]

Man cub is one of the most exciting guys to watch in mma , beautiful techniques in the cage

[JIBBBY]

Looking like Cub by UN... Should have known this dude does have a chin.. Cub on points it is..

[Mase of Base]

Lobov is a machine. Thought it was going to be 2-2 (imo) there for awhile the first half of that 4th round.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Surprisingly good fight. Should be a Swanson UD

[firekillex]

Cub threw everything but the kitchen sink in his last 2 scraps..
guys fighting some granite chin zombies jeeze

hats off to Artem for a tough scrap

[Sanity Check]

Looked like Artem gased his arms out in round 2 when he was on the bottom or defending those chokes.

I gave Artem round 1 though.

[PaperTrail07]

[Hugo de Naranja]

Solid night of picks and bets. Will post results after they announce FOTN. Could well have been the Main Event.

[firekillex]

Solid night of picks and bets. Will post results after they announce FOTN. Could well have been the Main Event.

i had cub/lobov FOTN after watching it all
GL though

solid night of betting that lauzon +175 wouldve made it way better but glad to see everybody here seemed profitable

next card in dallas is card of the year so far, some crazy fights gonna be a treat

[PaperTrail07]

Ray lauzon IMO....but w how they roll.....easily...

Solid night of picks and bets. Will post results after they announce FOTN. Could well have been the Main Event.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Pinoy with the solid calls and the evidence to back it up!

You da man Hugo, I'm just trying to keep up

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ray lauzon IMO....but w how they roll.....easily...

Looks like Swanson+Lobov won it. No complaints from me there.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 108: Swanson vs. Lobov Picks:
Matt Schnell Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Bryan Barberena Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alexis Davis Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Danielle Taylor Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Scott Holtzman Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Brandon Moreno Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Sam Alvey Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Mike Perry Round 1 KO (Knee and Punches)
Stevie Ray Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
John Dodson Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marcos Rogerio De Lima Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Al Iaquinta Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Cub Swanson Unanimous Decision (50-45 x2, 49-46)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 108: Swanson vs. Lobov Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
John Dodson ($9,400) 54 Points
Scott Holtzman ($9,300) 115 Points
Mike Perry ($8,400) 103 Points
Danielle Taylor ($7,700) 66 Points
Brandon Moreno ($7,600) 103 Points
Marcos Rogerio De Lima ($7,500) 8.5 Points

Risk: 1u
Total Points: 449.5 Points
Result: Did Not Cash, -1u

UFC Fight Night 108: Swanson vs. Lobov Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
John Dodson ($9,400) 54 Points
Scott Holtzman ($9,300) 115 Points
Mike Perry ($8,400) 103 Points
Matt Schnell ($8,000) 19 Points
Brandon Moreno ($7,600) 103 Points
Cindy Dandois ($7,300) 48.5 Points

Risk: .2u
Total Points: 442.5 Points
Result: Did Not Cash, -.2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 108: Swanson vs. Lobov

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Sandoval vs. Schnell
Sandoval+Schnell Won’t Start Round 2 (+362) +1.81u
Schnell ITD (+400) -.5u

Result: Hector Sandoval Round 1 KO (Punches)
Fight: +1.31u
Card: +1.31u

Fight #2: Barberena vs. Proctor
Barberena Round 2 (+550) -.5u
Barberena Round 3 (+925) -.5u

Result: Bryan Barberena Round 1 TKO (Knees and Punches)
Fight: -1u
Card: +.31u

Fight #3: Davis vs. Dandois (DEBUT)
Davis+Dandois Under 2.5 (+110) -1.5u
Dandois (+210) -.5u

Result: Alexis Davis Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fight: -2u
Card: -1.69u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Taylor vs. Penne
Taylor (+110) +1.1u
Taylor Scorecards = No Action (+155) +0u
Taylor+Penne Under 2.5 (+250) -.5u
Taylor KO/TKO (+655) -.5u

Result: Danielle Taylor Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fight: +.1u
Card: -1.59u

Fight #5: Holtzman vs. McBride
Holtzman Round 2 (+525) -.5u
Holtzman Round 3 (+900) -.5u

Hedge:
McBride Submission (+1000) -.25u

Result: Scott Holtzman Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)
Fight: -1.25u
Card: -2.84u

Fight #6: Moreno vs. Ortiz
Moreno (+125) +2.5u
Moreno Scorecards = No Action (+175) +3.5u
Moreno Decision (+300) -.5u
Moreno Submission (+865) +4.325u

Hedge:
Ortiz Round 3 (+1900) -.5u

Result: Brandon Moreno Round 2 Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Fight: +9.325u
Card: +6.485u

Fight #7: Alvey vs. Leites
Alvey (+100) -3u
Alvey KO/TKO (+544) -1u
Alvey Round 3 (+1950) -.25u

Added:
Alvey Submission (+2000) -.2u

Result: Thales Leites Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Fight: -4.45u
Card: +2.035u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Perry vs. Ellenberger
Perry+Ellenberger Under 1.5 (+105) +1.05u
Perry KO/TKO (+130) +3.25u

Hedge:
Ellenberger Round 1 (+425) -.5u

Added:
Perry Decision (+750) .-25u

Result: Mike Perry Round 2 KO (Standing Elbow)
Fight: +3.55u
Card: +5.585u

Fight #9: Ray vs. Lauzon
Lauzon ITD (+425) -1u

Result: Stevie Ray Majority Decision (29-27, 28-27, 28-28)
Fight: -1u
Card: +4.585u

Fight #10: Dodson vs. Wineland
Dodson+Wineland Under 2.5 (+125) -1u
Dodson Round 1 (+165) -1u

Hedge:
Wineland KO/TKO (+1200) -.25u

Result: John Dodson Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Fight: -2.25u
Card: +2.335u

Fight #11: Rogerio de Lima vs. Saint Preux
Saint Preux Submission (+900) +18u

Hedge:
Lima Round 1 (+250) -.5u

Added:
Rogerio de Lima KO/TKO (+221) -1u

Result: Ovince Saint Preux Round 2 Submission (Von Flue Choke)
Fight: +16.5u
Card: +18.835u

Fight #12: Iaquinta vs. Sanchez
Iaquinta KO/TKO (+165) +3.3u

Result: Al Iaquinta Round 1 KO (Punches)
Fight: +3.3u
Card: +22.135u

Fight #13: Swanson vs. Lobov
Swanson+Lobov Goes Distance (+180) +2.7u
Swanson Unanimous Decision (+395) +1.975u
Swanson Submission (+705) -.5u

Result: Cub Swanson Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46 x2)
Fight: +4.175u
Card: +26.31u

Straight Parlays:
Perry/Dodson (+105) +1.05u
Taylor/Saint Preux+Rogerio de Lima Under 1.5 (+210) +2.1u

Results: All Win
Fights: +3.15u
Card: +29.46

Prop Parlays:
Holtzman/Dodson KO (+118) -2u
Perry+Ellenberger Won’t Start R2/Dodson+Wineland Won’t Start R2 (+470) -.25u
Alvey+Leites Under 2.5/Perry+Ellenberger Under 1.5/Ray (+649) -.25u
Dodson+Wineland WSR3/RDL/Iaquinta -3.5/Swanson -3.5 (+669) -.25u
Taylor/Holtzman+McBride WGD/Moreno (+822) -.25u
Schnell+Sandoval WGD/Barberena ITD/Davis+Dandois WGD (+1009) -.25u
Perry+Ellenberger U1.5/Dodson+Wineland U2.5/Iaquinta ITD (+1022) -.5u
Ellenberger KO/Ray ITD (+1441) -.25u
Dandois ITD/Taylor ITD (+2709) -.25u

Added:
Holtzman -3.5/Swanson -3.5 (+106) +1.06u
Dodson Decision/Iaquinta Decision (+943) .-25u

Results: See Above
Fights: -3.44u
Card: +26.02u

Live-Betting:
Holtzman+McBride Won’t Go Distance (+165) -1.5u
Swanson+Lobov Won’t Go Distance (+175) -1u
Rogerio de Lima+Saint Preux Goes Distance (+200) -1u
Ray+Lauzon Goes Distance (+200) +2u
Penne (+250) -.5u
Wineland (+350) -.5u
Ray (+500) +5u

Results: See Above
Fights: +2.5u
Card: +28.52u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+352) -1.25u
Ray+Lauzon FOTN (+600) -.5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+980) -.5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2975) -.25u

Results: 7 Decisions, Swanson+Lobov FOTN
Fights: -2.5u
Final Card Total = +26.02u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Solid night closed down with some prop hits on the main card.

[Shagdogy]

Solid night closed down with some prop hits on the main card.

Epic stretch for you right now. Unreal. Good work.

[bjpenn85]

With this progression Hugo. You will be restricted very soon, congrats?

[JIBBBY]

Solid night closed down with some prop hits on the main card.

That's 3 events in a row you killed.. Nice work Hugo!! You're are in a nice little groove right now keep it up..


My night in a nuts shell -

This event was a wash for me.. Was up early with this event and stayed up but could never really get going.. Those Penne and Joe Lauson decision losses killed me.. Both robberies IMO even though you disagreed.. I also loaded up on Dustin Ortiz but he got kicked in the head and choked out.. Lost a good amount with Cub winning by decision also..

Did load up on these and hit them - Al Aquinta by KO over Diego and the Perry by KO over Ellenburger.. John Dodson winning by decision worked for me and so did the OSP straight win... So it was a back and forth hit and miss kinda night for me...

Maybe made a few pennies but that's it.. Not even worth tracking and posting..

Fitting as I was kinda absent for this event anyways.. Had stuff going on during the entire event...

[Sanity Check]

With this progression Hugo. You will be restricted very soon, congrats?

How much $$ can someone win before they're restricted on 5dimes?

[Hugo de Naranja]

The streak of big wins continues with over 26u in profit last night. Won on Sandoval+Schnell WSR2, Taylor, Moreno ML + SNA + Submission, Perry KO + Under 1.5, OSP Sub (BIG), Iaquinta KO, Swanson+Lobov GD + Swanson UD, Straight Parlays, and Live Betting. Lost on Barberena Props, Davis Under 2.5, Holtzman Props, Alvey ML + Props, Lauzon ITD, Dodson Under 2.5, Prop Parlays, and Full Card Props. Missed on cashing DK (AGAIN!) which was a disappointment. I'm going to put more time into my lineups in the coming weeks.

I realize that every week WILL NOT be like this and that I have benefited from some positive variance for the past few events. My prop hedging style can lead to big losses at times if I get lots of things wrong and miss hedges. Regardless, I'm going to focus on consistent capping and not getting carried away with recent success. MMA gambling is a marathon and not a sprint but I'm enjoying this run of positive results for as long as it lasts.

[Shagdogy]

I'm gonna get this ball rolling... hoping for some barking today:

Sanchez/Iaquinta u2.5, +123 - 1u
Lauzon +160, 1u
Sandoval +125, 1u
Moreno by dec +305, .66u
Holtzman -290, 4.35u

Maybe some more to come. Good luck everyone.

Adding Ellenberger/Perry o1.5, +105, 1u

Card Total: 3-3, +1.32u

2017 YTD: 38-22, +22.18u

Another "winning" night but man I really feel like I'm just crawling lately. Haven't had a losing night in a long time, but the wins just haven't broken through in a while either. The Ellenberger/Perry over was just a bad play, and Moreno by dec. was just a bit greedy on my part, though I really didn't expect Ortiz to get finished. I have a pretty modest goal of 4u profit per card, and I've been falling just a little short. I tend to play very safe which is probably why I haven't taken a loss in a long time, but I wouldn't mind one of those "Hugo nights" sometime soon.

I'm getting about 34% ROI on my bankroll for 2017 so far. I'd like to double it for the year, but I feel like anything over 50% is decent. Right now I'm on pace for somewhere in the middle.

[firekillex]

The streak of big wins continues with over 26u in profit last night. Won on Sandoval+Schnell WSR2, Taylor, Moreno ML + SNA + Submission, Perry KO + Under 1.5, OSP Sub (BIG), Iaquinta KO, Swanson+Lobov GD + Swanson UD, Straight Parlays, and Live Betting. Lost on Barberena Props, Davis Under 2.5, Holtzman Props, Alvey ML + Props, Lauzon ITD, Dodson Under 2.5, Prop Parlays, and Full Card Props. Missed on cashing DK (AGAIN!) which was a disappointment. I'm going to put more time into my lineups in the coming weeks.



I realize that every week WILL NOT be like this and that I have benefited from some positive variance for the past few events. My prop hedging style can lead to big losses at times if I get lots of things wrong and miss hedges. Regardless, I'm going to focus on consistent capping and not getting carried away with recent success. MMA gambling is a marathon and not a sprint but I'm enjoying this run of positive results for as long as it lasts.

glad to see you being smart hugo, have had big runs myself and started to wager more thinking i was an mma capping god and it didnt turn out well lolll, be smart with your wagers and never steer off track be disciplined and youll be profitable long term

marathon not a race for sure, GL and solid capping lately amigo

[slikec]

Well Hugo i always check what you post and try to follow few of your picks. That OSP sub +900 was really a gem and if 5dimes didnt limit you already you are one lucky SOB. I was limited there so fast and at the time was betting 90% NBA lol. I did get OSP sub at +350 so i made small bet on that thx.

[bjpenn85]

How much $$ can someone win before they're restricted on 5dimes?

I dont know. I cant play more than 200 dollars on openers. This weekend one line i bet moved from 1.50 to 1.40 instantly. High fraud factor.

There really careful with openers for some reason. Sometimes they let me put 500 dollars on a bet also, so its not like im 100% restriced on all bets. But they probably follow some sort of code. I cant make parlays over time, and i cant bet high stakes on openers.

[PaperTrail07]

I made 241$ LMFAO.....yippee

[Sanity Check]

I dont know. I cant play more than 200 dollars on openers. This weekend one line i bet moved from 1.50 to 1.40 instantly. High fraud factor.

There really careful with openers for some reason. Sometimes they let me put 500 dollars on a bet also, so its not like im 100% restriced on all bets. But they probably follow some sort of code. I cant make parlays over time, and i cant bet high stakes on openers.

I don't know if its fraud. I've noticed books pull lines that are bet too heavily, sometimes maybe for fear of fix. I'll go to bet something and it'll disappear for a few minutes and come back later.

Some bitcoin books have $7,000 caps on NBA ML bets.
$700-$1,400 caps on UFC openers.

Caps on MMA might be higher closer to fight time. I don't pay attention, I don't bet anwhere near the caps anywayz.

[bjpenn85]

I don't know if its fraud. I've noticed books pull lines that are bet too heavily, sometimes maybe for fear of fix. I'll go to bet something and it'll disappear for a few minutes and come back later.

Some bitcoin books have $7,000 caps on NBA ML bets.
$700-$1,400 caps on UFC openers.

Caps on MMA might be higher closer to fight time. I don't pay attention, I don't bet anwhere near the caps anywayz.

They restrict you regardless of caps. Its about profit. All general managers are quite open, they say its a business dec, or they can say, we dont want you to have that option. Its correct that there are more money coming in day of the fight.

[SpookyFellow]

Yes