UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg (September 24, 2016)

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think that's because they kept showing Erick Silva getting dropped by Stun Gun on the UFC Tonight show

ES has lost his last 2 fights and is prone to getting dropped now.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erick-Silva-15009

Kicking myself for not laying down more on Chagas ITD (+500) and Decision (+825). Figured the public still hadn't woken up yet.

[JIBBBY]

Thats usada kicking in , fights in Brazil though maybe we could see an old silva? At +140 it's worth a shot..

funny fact silva has never once been an underdog in his UFC career until now

I can't argue the logic FireKill..

Both fighters are from Brazil so both should be jacked up in this one... Chagas only one fight deep into the UFC, a rookie.... Silva is a UFC vet and needs this win badly... Should be a good scrap..

I think it's a sketchy fight to bet on myself.. I'll probably hedge this bad boy myself as I think either fighter could win.. Silva chin is suspect these days though....

[Hugo de Naranja]

A couple of main card Brazilians (Santos and Barao) got some hilarious new chest tattoos. Cyborg looked very drained on the scale but she'll have a lot of time to rehydrate and recover before the fights tomorrow.

[PaperTrail07]

She will be fine---agree...

A couple of main card Brazilians (Santos and Barao) got some hilarious new chest tattoos. Cyborg looked very drained on the scale but she'll have a lot of time to rehydrate and recover before the fights tomorrow.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 95 Picks:
Glaico Franca Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Vicente Luque Round 1 Submission
Alan Patrick Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Luan Chagas Round 2 TKO
Jussier Formiga Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Rani Yahya Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Gilbert Burns Round 3 Submission
Godofredo Pepey Round 1 Submission
Thiago Santos Round 1 TKO
Francisco Trinaldo Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Roy Nelson Round 1 KO
Renan Barao Round 2 Submission
Cyborg Justino Round 1 TKO

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 95 Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Thiago Santos ($11,400)
Vicente Luque ($10,800)
Francisco Trinaldo ($9,700)
Jussier Formiga ($9,200)
Luan Chagas ($8,800)

UFC Fight Night 95 Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Thiago Santos ($11,400)
Vicente Luque ($10,800)
Godofredo Pepey ($10,500)
Luan Chagas ($8,800)
Alan Patrick ($8,300)

Note: Most of my Draftkings $ for this event are on the Double Up lineup with just a small flyer on the tourney lineup.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 95: Cyborg vs. Lansberg

Fight #1: Franca vs. Gillespie (DEBUT):
Franca (+110) 1u
Franca Round 3 (+1000) .25u

Fight #2: Luque vs. Urbina:
Luque ITD (-133) 1.33u to win 1u
Luque/Urbina Draw (+8000) .25u

Hedge:
Urbina Round 3 (+2500) .125u

Fight #3: Patrick vs. Ray:
Patrick (+200) 1u
Patrick Submission (+895) .25u

Fight #4: Silva vs. Chagas:
Silva/Chagas Under 1.5 Rounds (+150) 1.5u
Chagas (+135) 1u
Chagas ITD (+500) 1u
Chagas Decision (+845) .5u
Silva/Chagas Draw (+6500) .25u

Hedge(s):
Silva Round 1 (+450) .5u
Silva Submission (+645) .75u

Fight #5: Formiga vs. Ortiz:
Formiga -3.5 (+150) 1u

Hedge:
Ortiz Round 3 (+2400) .5u

Fight #6: Yahya vs. Tanaka:
Yahya -3.5 (+145) .5u
Yahya Decision (+258) .5u

Hedge:
Tanaka Decision (+235) .5u

Fight #7: Burns vs. Prazeres:
Burns -3.5 (+105) 1.5u
Burns KO/TKO (+831) .25u
Burns Round 3 (+1050) .5u

Hedge:
Prazeres Decision (+260) 1u

Fight #8: Pepey vs. De la Torre:
Pepey/De la Torre Under 1.5 Rounds (-125) 1.25u to win 1u
Pepey Round 1 (+225) .5u
Pepey/De la Torre Draw (+8000) .25u

Hedge:
De la Torre Decision (+718) .25u

Fight #9: Santos vs. Spicely:
Santos Round 1 (-125) 1.25u to win 1u

Fight #10: Trinaldo vs. Felder:
Trinaldo (-140) 4.2u to win 3u
Trinaldo -3.5 (+195) 1u
Trinaldo -3.5 (+210) .5u

Hedge(s):
Felder Decision (+360) 1u
Felder Round 3 (+1100) .5u

Fight #11: Nelson vs. Silva:
Fight Won’t Start Round 2 (-170) 3.4u to win 2u

Fight #12: Barao vs. Nover:
Barao Submission (+430) .75u

Hedge:
Nover KO/TKO (+1600)

Fight #13: Cyborg vs. Lansberg (DEBUT):
Cyborg Round 1 (+140) 2u

Hedge:
Lansberg KO/TKO (+1440) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Ortiz+Formiga Over 2.5 Rounds/Trinaldo+Felder Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) 1u
Silva+Chagas Don’t Go Distance/Trinaldo+Felder Go Distance (+164) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Santos KO/Nelson KO (+107) 1u
Silva+Chagas Under 1.5 Rounds/Prazeres Decision (+818) .5u
Erick Silva Submission/Burns ITD (+2098) .25u
Felder Decision/Barao Submission (+2338) .25u
Chagas Round 2/Ray Round 2 (+4612) .125u
Chagas Round 2/Burns Round 3 (+6513) .125u
Chagas Round 3/Burns Round 3 (+11687) .125u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Trinaldo+Felder Over 2.5 Rounds/Tim Kennedy (+123) 1u

[JIBBBY]

I'm just glad this card is being aired at normal times even though it is being held in Brazil... I hate those early morning start times on the global events...

[Thrilla]

- Roy Nelson discusses his problems with UFC referees with Jim Norton and Matt Serra on the latest episode of UFC Unfiltered. 22 sep. 2016

- Longtime UFC veteran Roy Nelson discusses the UFC sale and how it could affect the way he’s seen by the promotion, his relationship with Dana White, fighting a friend in "Bigfoot" Silva at Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 95 in Brazil, his opponent’s ability to take a punch, and more.

[Thrilla]

How do we factor in Roy and Bigfoot being friends? You think there will be some conservativeness? over 1.5 @ 3.05

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Burns is -190 at bovada
Prazeres is +197 at Bookmaker and betdsi

[UncleChael]

Take the Irish Dragon tonight. In Uncle Chael we trust.

[JIBBBY]

Geez Bigfoot and Roy are way to friendly.. What the hell are they even gonna fight? They should get a hotel room instead

Bigfoot grows the beard to protect the glass...Lol.. Classic....


Big Foot by decision and hedge with Nelson 1st round finish maybe?

1221 Nelson wins in round 1

-165

1207 Silva wins by 3 round decision

+670

[Rich Benjamins]

How do we factor in Roy and Bigfoot being friends? You think there will be some conservativeness? over 1.5 @ 3.05

I don't think their friendliness is going to affect how they fight. However, I'm in the minority when I say I would not bet against Bigfoot here. The line is too skewed towards Nelson, and this could be Bigfoot's comeback fight. People forget he beat Overeem, Fedor, and Browne. I think he could pull off the upset here.

[firekillex]

Beat them all on TRT was a much different fighter, he has like 80 lbs on fedor, overeem was beating him then got tagged his chin is super suspect, Browne most likely would've won but tore something in his leg I believe and was a sitting duck..
Roy Nelson has probably the best chin in mma completely different scenario imo , watch the silva/Struve fight and tell me his chin isn't completely shot, he knows his chin is done so he tries to just bum rush Struve and take him down ('actually a solid game plan ) but he literally gets tagged by a moving backwards straight that Nelson would eat for breakfast and drops like a sack of potatoes, that's when I truly knew Bigfoot was done for good, sucks because he seems like a good dude and he legit needs TRT because of his disease I hope he hangs him up after this one since hell most likely get Ko'd again and that'll be like 7 outta 9 tkos in his last 9 fights which is absolutely terrible

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Beat them all on TRT was a much different fighter, he has like 80 lbs on fedor, overeem was beating him then got tagged his chin is super suspect, Browne most likely would've won but tore something in his leg I believe and was a sitting duck..
Roy Nelson has probably the best chin in mma completely different scenario imo , watch the silva/Struve fight and tell me his chin isn't completely shot, he knows his chin is done so he tries to just bum rush Struve and take him down ('actually a solid game plan ) but he literally gets tagged by a moving backwards straight that Nelson would eat for breakfast and drops like a sack of potatoes, that's when I truly knew Bigfoot was done for good, sucks because he seems like a good dude and he legit needs TRT because of his disease I hope he hangs him up after this one since hell most likely get Ko'd again and that'll be like 7 outta 9 tkos in his last 9 fights which is absolutely terrible

Amen brother

[JIBBBY]

^^^ODDS are jacked on the KO prop... Good job on beating the Prick 2 weeks in a row Jakester by the way!!! I went 3-2 in week 2 but missed the 2 point hit, not enough to beat the Prick ..


1233 Nelson wins by TKO/KO

-268

[Rich Benjamins]

Beat them all on TRT was a much different fighter, he has like 80 lbs on fedor, overeem was beating him then got tagged his chin is super suspect, Browne most likely would've won but tore something in his leg I believe and was a sitting duck..
Roy Nelson has probably the best chin in mma completely different scenario imo , watch the silva/Struve fight and tell me his chin isn't completely shot, he knows his chin is done so he tries to just bum rush Struve and take him down ('actually a solid game plan ) but he literally gets tagged by a moving backwards straight that Nelson would eat for breakfast and drops like a sack of potatoes, that's when I truly knew Bigfoot was done for good, sucks because he seems like a good dude and he legit needs TRT because of his disease I hope he hangs him up after this one since hell most likely get Ko'd again and that'll be like 7 outta 9 tkos in his last 9 fights which is absolutely terrible

Yea, I think that is the case, and it's priced into the line as well. I don't know why Bigfoot keeps fighting though. There's a chance he'll make a comeback. Maybe I'm just saying that because I remember when he actually did OK in fights. But right now his stock is at rock bottom.

[Thrilla]

[JIBBBY]

^^ You can clearly see how Big Foots body has changed since not being on the TRT/Juice.. He's got twigs as arms and even the tatoos don't cover that up.. Dude has a disease but Roy is a 100 years old and will gas out faster then a fart in the wind..

That's why I was thinking Roy by 1st round KO since Big Foots chin is glass, or maybe Big Foot by decision if he can gut it out and last.. In Brazil the judges will probably give it to Big Foot... Roy does have the granite chin and is super hard to finish..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Note: Nover KO/TKO (+1600) is .25u

[UncleChael]

Are we all taking Alan Patrick for the first few fights?
It might just be a play, Alan Patrick +130 ML

[JIBBBY]

First 3 fights and how I'm playing them...

Fight #1 - Franca by sub/Fight won't go the distance prop

Fight #2 - Luque ITD and by Sub

Fight #3 - Ray ITD/U2.5

[JIBBBY]

Are we all taking Alan Patrick for the first few fights?
It might just be a play, Alan Patrick +130 ML

Not so sure about this one Unc.. Read this...

Alan Patrick (13-1) has enjoyed an up-and-down career since joining UFC in 2013, a knockout of Garett Whitely and questionable decision over John Makdessi leading into a hideously broken jaw in training and a knockout loss to Mairbek Taisumov. He last fought in March, taking a decision over late-notice replacement Damien Brown in the latter’s native Australia.


He stands an inch taller than Steven Ray (19-5) at 5’11."
Ray -- who entered UFC as the Cage Warriors Lightweight champion -- has yet to taste defeat in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) organization. He knocked out Marcin Bandel and Leonardo Mafra in his first two Octagon appearances, then picked up a decision over Mickael Lebout and was set to face Jake Matthews in July before suffering an injury.
"Braveheart" has scored six wins by form of knockout and eight by submission.


Four fights into his UFC career, I’m still not entirely sure what Patrick is supposed to be good at. He’s big and awkward, but his wrestling is underdeveloped and his striking is all flash and no substance. He’ll be at a marked disadvantage on the feet and his capable top game likely won’t be a factor considering the aforementioned wrestling issues.
Ray’s got some heavy hands and has never been stopped with strikes, making it hard to pick against him in the inevitable striking battle. Expect him to find more and more success putting hands on Patrick as the latter’s takedowns get increasingly desperate, possibly stopping the big Brazilian in the latter portion of the fight.
Prediction: Ray by knockout

[JIBBBY]

Note: Nover KO/TKO (+1600) is .25u

I got Nover by decision myself..

[UncleChael]

Not so sure about this one Unc.. Read this...

Alan Patrick (13-1) has enjoyed an up-and-down career since joining UFC in 2013, a knockout of Garett Whitely and questionable decision over John Makdessi leading into a hideously broken jaw in training and a knockout loss to Mairbek Taisumov. He last fought in March, taking a decision over late-notice replacement Damien Brown in the latter’s native Australia.


He stands an inch taller than Steven Ray (19-5) at 5’11."
Ray -- who entered UFC as the Cage Warriors Lightweight champion -- has yet to taste defeat in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) organization. He knocked out Marcin Bandel and Leonardo Mafra in his first two Octagon appearances, then picked up a decision over Mickael Lebout and was set to face Jake Matthews in July before suffering an injury.
"Braveheart" has scored six wins by form of knockout and eight by submission.


Four fights into his UFC career, I’m still not entirely sure what Patrick is supposed to be good at. He’s big and awkward, but his wrestling is underdeveloped and his striking is all flash and no substance. He’ll be at a marked disadvantage on the feet and his capable top game likely won’t be a factor considering the aforementioned wrestling issues.
Ray’s got some heavy hands and has never been stopped with strikes, making it hard to pick against him in the inevitable striking battle. Expect him to find more and more success putting hands on Patrick as the latter’s takedowns get increasingly desperate, possibly stopping the big Brazilian in the latter portion of the fight.
Prediction: Ray by knockout

Hoping a Brazilian gets knocked out in Brazil.. rough. What is he Stipe? 50 bet points jibbbys, I got Patrick?

[Rich Benjamins]

^^ You can clearly see how Big Foots body has changed since not being on the TRT/Juice.. He's got twigs as arms and even the tatoos don't cover that up.. Dude has a disease but Roy is a 100 years old and will gas out faster then a fart in the wind..

That's why I was thinking Roy by 1st round KO since Big Foots chin is glass, or maybe Big Foot by decision if he can gut it out and last.. In Brazil the judges will probably give it to Big Foot... Roy does have the granite chin and is super hard to finish..

Yea I see that too, his arms are smaller now, he isn't as muscular.

[firekillex]

Roy definitely hasn't looked his best either lately but he's still easily a solid gatekeeper at heavyweight even at this state, silva is lucky to even be on the roster at this point if heavyweight wasn't so thin he would've been long gone already, give him one last shot in Brazil this is basically for his career , wouldn't be mad if he won but at his age and being kod that many times there's not much you can do, seen it time and time again you can't fix a broken chin once it's gone it's gone forever just sad he keeps trying the last few fights he's been hit with shots that he would eaten all day previously , that mark hunt draw definitely took a toll on his body plus coming off the TRT.. and I disagree with the Roy cardio statement Roy actually has solid cardio for a fat dude, he went 5 with Barnett , 3 rounds with dos santos , overeem, miocic , Cormier a bunch of killers and he still had that overhand power in the late rounds the way he fights he doesn't really exert a ton of energy he jut plods around and throws a few big shots then moves around , I think his cardio will easily be better then Silvas in this spot , only way I can see silva winning really is if he somehow clipped Roy and gets full mount and just beats him up there, but I'd give him 10% chance max at winning this imo , to slow , to broken down but maybe we'll see the Brazilian miracle it's mma anything can happen

[firekillex]

Hoping a Brazilian gets knocked out in Brazil.. rough. What is he Stipe? 50 bet points jibbbys, I got Patrick?

I'll take Stevie for 50 if you want Chael

[firekillex]

Note: Nover KO/TKO (+1600) is .25u

Decent Hail Mary prop but I think baraos gonna starch him in this fight , I see a finish happening for barao

[Sanity Check]

Are we all taking Alan Patrick for the first few fights?
It might just be a play, Alan Patrick +130 ML

I'm thinking about it.

Patrick trains with Jacare who is an absolute beast everywhere.

Stevie Ray did well when he trained at Tristar with Firas Zahabi but for this fight he trained somewhere else.

Could be a recipe for an upset.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Decent Hail Mary prop but I think baraos gonna starch him in this fight , I see a finish happening for barao

Agreed. I think Nover's best chance to win is by catching Barao with a body kick or an uppercut coming in. Doubt he can decision or sub him.

[rsynweap84]

First 3 fights and how I'm playing them...

Fight #1 - Franca by sub/Fight won't go the distance prop

Fight #2 - Luque ITD and by Sub

Fight #3 - Ray ITD/U2.5

For you Lord Jibbers, I shall parlay these picks!!!!

9/24/2016 7:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 2009 Ray wins inside distance* +158 vs Not Ray inside distance 9/24/2016 7:00 PM MMA Props Fighting 2131 Luque wins by submission* +155 vs Any other result 9/24/2016 6:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 2227 Franca wins by submission* +245 vs Any other result

Risking $25.00 To Win $542.44

[Sanity Check]

Agreed. I think Nover's best chance to win is by catching Barao with a body kick or an uppercut coming in. Doubt he can decision or sub him.

Nover will try to outwrestle/outgrapple Barao.

[UncleChael]

I'll take Stevie for 50 if you want Chael

Deal. Good luck, Stevie!