UFC on FOX: Maia vs Condit (August 27, 2016)

**firekillex** · 08-18-16, 11:25 AM

im seeing -105 condit and -110 maia on my book

war natural born killer !!! 2 unit straight up and .5 units tko/ko prop already locked in

**PaperTrail07** · 08-18-16, 12:04 PM

Wow....ALVEY / KASEY a good matchup as well...

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-18-16, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Wow....ALVEY / KASEY a good matchup as well...

Alvey probably knocks Casey out in the second or third.

**xagonzx** · 08-18-16, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Alvey probably knocks Casey out in the second or third.

You think so? Possible, but i think i give a slight edge to Casey.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-18-16, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by xagonzx

You think so? Possible, but i think i give a slight edge to Casey.

Alvey has great TDD and power and Casey seems to gas in every fight so I think he eventually gets put out by a big shot. Casey has also been KO'ed in all his losses.

**xagonzx** · 08-18-16, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Alvey has great TDD and power and Casey seems to gas in every fight so I think he eventually gets put out by a big shot. Casey has also been KO'ed in all his losses.

I haven't started looking at any of these fights yet, but that is a valid argument. Casey has good power himself and good grappling. I'd think Casey can either eek out a decision or possibly find a sub, but Alvey is always live for a KO.

I would think that the fight goes the distance might be worth a shot, as it will probably be pretty good odds, and i can see a clinch fest or a grinding type of fight here. Maybe that bet, with a Alvey KO (or ITD since he penetrated me and got a sub last fight!) hedge. Idk, just some first thoughts.

**firekillex** · 08-18-16, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Alvey probably knocks Casey out in the second or third.

i got alvey by tko/ko prop as well, hopefully its a decent line... Casey has power but alvey definitely has the better technique and all 4 of caseys losses have come by tko/ko so he doesnt have the best chin, alvey needs the win and has been super active i think he may come out a little stronger then usual and finish this by the 2nd

**PaperTrail07** · 08-18-16, 02:06 PM

If Alvey Keeps it standing-YES

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Alvey has great TDD and power and Casey seems to gas in every fight so I think he eventually gets put out by a big shot. Casey has also been KO'ed in all his losses.

**firekillex** · 08-21-16, 12:44 PM

Let's get this chat going , who's everybody on ??
another super tough close main event to call here I like condit a lot at -105
pettis/olivera is a super tough fight to call I wonder where the odds will be for this

**Demonata** · 08-21-16, 12:53 PM

I think maia only wins if he subs condit or grinds out a decisions. I like condit a lot on the feet with his kicks.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-21-16, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

I think maia only wins if he subs condit or grinds out a decisions. I like condit a lot on the feet with his kicks.

Well he's pretty unlikely to TKO Condit so yes those are his two paths to victory...

**bjpenn85** · 08-21-16, 02:18 PM

From my view point its either Maia by dec/sub or Condit by tko.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-21-16, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

From my view point its either Maia by dec/sub or Condit by tko.

I think Condit could potentially win a decision as well but Maia Decision seems more likely.

**bjpenn85** · 08-21-16, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think Condit could potentially win a decision as well but Maia Decision seems more likely.

I probably pass. It can go both ways here, so i dont see any value.

**JIBBBY** · 08-21-16, 03:18 PM

I change my avatar picture if my boy loses...

I think DM softens up Condit from the top position then sub's him out at some point.. Condit is talking about retiring soon and I'm not so sure he's not past his prime and looking to walk out the door already..

Maia is no spring chicken either but he seems to have found the fountain of youth as he's on a mission and determined to get another title shot.. That one title shot loss and embarrassment against Anderson Silva left a bad taste in his mouth I guess.

DM will HAVE NO TROUBLE taking down the taller Condit.. Condit never did have great TD defense either.. That's the key factor in this fight.. DM just has to watch out for those Condit up knees when he shoots in and not gas out to badly if the fight drags on..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-21-16, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I probably pass. It can go both ways here, so i dont see any value.

Fair enough. Should be a fun fight

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-21-16, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I change my avatar picture if my boy loses...

I think DM softens up Condit from the top position then sub's him out at some point.. Condit is talking about retiring soon and I'm not so sure he's not past his prime and looking to walk out the door already..

Maia is no spring chicken either but he seems to have found the fountain of youth as he's on a mission and determined to get another title shot.. That one title shot loss and embarrassment against Anderson Silva left a bad taste in his mouth I guess.

DM will HAVE NO TROUBLE taking down the taller Condit.. Condit never did have great TD either.. That's the key factor in this fight..

Shocked to see you're on Maia Jibs. I thought you'd be all over Condit for sure lol

**mackave** · 08-21-16, 03:43 PM

Will be at this event, should be pretty decent.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-21-16, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by mackave

Will be at this event, should be pretty decent.

That's awesome! Should be a good card

**firekillex** · 08-21-16, 04:19 PM

i dont think maias gas tank will be able to keep up with condit imo, maia has looked super good lately but condit is on another level imo he is super super crafty on the feet and can mix it up with the best of them , i see maia possibly having some success in the first 2 rounds with a couple trips or single legs takedowns but i dont think hell get the sub on condit then once he starts to gas out a bit and starts shooting desperately when condit starts landing leg kicks and strikes from all angles hell land a nice flying knee or head kick to drop maia and finish him off ontop round 3/4 range .... i see condit being able to win by decision and tko/ko i see maias only path to victory here by sub and he could maybe squeak out a split decision but im not sure he can last 5 with condit on the winning end of things but its a super tough fight for both guys definitely but i gotta roll with the natural born killer here

and jibby ill hold you to that if maia losses you can change your profile pic to tyron woodley

**JIBBBY** · 08-21-16, 04:33 PM

^^ I can't do Twood in my avatar Firekill..

Although he did drop Ruthless Robbie and all Twood does is make me money.. Hmmm? Well this is all talk as I think DM takes out the natural born Killa...

DM wins first 3 round just with td's and top control and can coast on his back thru round 4 and 5 if need be.. DM does need to watch out for those Condit knees and kicks for sure though like you said.. He'll get the decision if it goes that far..

**firekillex** · 08-21-16, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^^ I can't do Twood in my avatar Firekill..

Although he did drop Ruthless Robbie and all Twood does is make me money.. Hmmm? Well this is all talk as I think DM takes out the natural born Killa...

DM wins first 3 round just with td's and top control and can coast on his back thru round 4 and 5 if need be.. DM does need to watch out for those Condit knees and kicks for sure though like you said.. He'll get the decision if it goes that far..

i was going to say you have to put condit as the avatar but that was to mean so i decided twood since you won with him previously plus hes a beast so why not

and even if maia wins the first 3 i dont think hell be able to coast the last 2 rounds with condit 10 minutes is an eternity ... the matt brown is really still stuck in my head if he fights like that against condit hes getting knocked the hell out but this is a fight with 2 highly skilled fighters i just really like condits skill level people really sleep on his ground game imagine he rocks maia and subs him out that would be insane

either way gonna put 2 units on condit nothing crazy but a larger then typical , i like his chances here and i really like the odds
i wanna see the odds for the rest of the fights hopefully drop tomorrow , i think props will be good for this card , vanzant decision prop may have value and i like lauzon to beat miller plus alvey tko/ko possibly

**JIBBBY** · 08-21-16, 04:48 PM

^ Jim Miller vs Joe Lauson is a good fight. Not so sure Joe can take Millers punches?.. Miller is probably a bit better on the ground as well.. Joe is tough and has length but little head movement.. I lean Joe Lauson but ever so slightly.... Good scrap right there..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-21-16, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^ Jim Miller vs Joe Lauson is a good fight. Not so sure Joe can take Millers punches?.. Miller is probably a bit better on the ground as well.. Joe is tough and has length but little head movement.. I lean Joe Lauson but ever so slightly.... Good scrap right there..

Their first fight was amazing! Hopefully we get another one like that!

**JIBBBY** · 08-21-16, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Their first fight was amazing! Hopefully we get another one like that!

That was along time ago.. 4 or 5 years ago?.. I think Joe got a little better since then, maybe Jim stayed the same.. Should make for a competitive fight and that's why I said it's a tough fight to call..

1st fight went to decision if I remember correctly with Jim Miller winning. Could be a different story this second go around..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-22-16, 06:03 PM

Lines dropping for this event right now on 5Ds.

I like
Alvey (-190)
Oliveira (+150)
Miller (-130)

Parlay of Alvey/Laprise (+109)

**UncleChael** · 08-22-16, 07:05 PM

You're going to bet against Carlos Condit this weekend? Good luck.

**JIBBBY** · 08-22-16, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Lines dropping for this event right now on 5Ds.

I like
Alvey (-190)
Oliveira (+150)
Miller (-130)

Parlay of Alvey/Laprise (+109)

Loving that Oliveira line

... In on that now!!!!

Showtime Pettis has been No time Pettis lately.. Showtime Pettis 3 fight losing streak...Possibly a broken fighter..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Pettis-26627

Oliveira looking good in recent fights, Max Holloway his only stumble.. Won 5 or last 6..

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-22-16, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I probably pass. It can go both ways here, so i dont see any value.

I think there is some good value on some of the props.

**Demonata** · 08-22-16, 07:56 PM

Carlos condit i likea lot, better cardio. Also better striker as long as he keeps it in the middle. Can't get taken down. Should kick the hell out of maia

**TPowell** · 08-22-16, 08:15 PM

some short lines on Alessio and Laprise

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-22-16, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

some short lines on Alessio and Laprise

Parlay 'em up

**GoBlue77** · 08-22-16, 08:26 PM

Im a big condit fan so i can't bet that fight and not be biased.

Im on Pettis rather large

**firekillex** · 08-22-16, 08:46 PM

ill be on condit straight for prob 2 units then another .5 units on tko/ko prop
i like pettis at that line i thought hed be a bit higher then that, i think he knows he really needs this win for his career most of his losses have been by being bullied by the bigger man i think him at 145 will be good for his career hell be able to out power oliveria and outstrike him plus he is underrated on the ground i dont see him getting subbed here ..
i was liking vanzant but at -260 the value isnt there , maybe the decision prop will be + money that could have value
will also probably roll with alvey tko/prop and im leaning lauzon in the rematch i think he takes out miller this time