UFC Fight Night: Caceres vs. Rodriguez (August 06, 2016)

[firekillex]

Cerrone decision +219 hmmmmmmmm

[xagonzx]

Without him it definitely would have been a losing night. It's always nice when your most confident pick pays off.

Yeah, definitely. Great joh again. I ran into a string of losing on confident picks, so tonight was nice. It sounds like most of us won, at least a few units?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cerrone decision +219 hmmmmmmmm

I love that spot. Have it parlayed with Bermudez/Jason goes distance at around +550.

[xagonzx]

Cerrone decision +219 hmmmmmmmm

I like it, although I'm always a lil cautious with cowboy. He's got some decent power and good jui jitsu.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like it, although I'm always a lil cautious with cowboy. He's got some decent power and good jui jitsu.

Still thinking of other ways to play this fight. Perhaps Cerrone -3.5 at +odds? Can he get a finish or win a UD with at least one 30-27

[Heyeverybody99]

Next up: McGregoat via murder

[Hugo de Naranja]

Next up: McGregoat via murder

It seems everyone's got a strong opinion on this one. Hopefully it will be a great fight!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Worth noting that fighters making their UFC debut against UFC veterans were 0-4 tonight. They were Gigliotti (-130), Novelli (+120), Gutierrez (+190), and Taylor (+235).

[xagonzx]

Still thinking of other ways to play this fight. Perhaps Cerrone -3.5 at +odds? Can he get a finish or win a UD with at least one 30-27

I think the -3.5 would be worth a shot, depending on the odds. Maybe Scorecards no action? Story MIGHT be able to grind out a 29-28 decision. I don't see Story finishing Cowboy, but can see cowboy finishing him. I can see either winning a close decision.

[xagonzx]

Worth noting that fighters making their UFC debut against UFC veterans were 0-4 tonight. They were Gigliotti (-130), Novelli (+120), Gutierrez (+190), and Taylor (+235).

Interesting. fighters making ufc debuts typically tend to struggle against veterans. I usually try to avoid betting AGAINST a fighter, instead of ON a fighter (ie i don't like to "fade" fighters), but something to take into consideration.

[PaperTrail07]

As a whole. Forum killed this card. Missed an 11 teamer picking an idiot I've never seen fight _gio_faded hit sauce. Otherwise I hit at110:1. Still killed it w cub,temur, gente,mcgee and luckily rod. Nice work fellas

[PaperTrail07]

Hugo I actually picked gig blind and.paid.For.it. he looked strong but horrible knee he was done afrer half a round .

[Demonata]

I made a ton on this card. Got 11 out of 12 right. Best i have ever did. Last card i got murdered so this was nice

[PaperTrail07]

$15.00 $1,616.46 $0.00 Loss 11 Team Parlay
Win 8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Yair Rodriguez -275* vs Alex Caceres
Win 8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Dennis Bermudez -245* vs Rony Jason
Win 8/6/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Thales Leites -170* vs Chris Camozzi
Win 8/6/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Santiago Ponzinibbio -120* vs Zak Cummings
Loss 8/6/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Joseph Gigliotti -125* vs Trevor Smith
Win 8/6/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Maryna Moroz -270* vs Danielle Taylor
Win 8/6/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Court McGee -220* vs Dominique Steele
Win 8/6/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 Marcin Tybura -140* vs Viktor Pesta
Win 8/6/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 David Teymur -150* vs Jason Novelli
Win 8/6/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Teruto Ishihara -230* vs Horacio Gutierrez
Win 8/6/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Cub Swanson -310

[PaperTrail07]

Fav all over

[Ty$]

$15.00 $1,616.46 $0.00 Loss 11 Team Parlay
Win 8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Yair Rodriguez -275* vs Alex Caceres
Win 8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Dennis Bermudez -245* vs Rony Jason
Win 8/6/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Thales Leites -170* vs Chris Camozzi
Win 8/6/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Santiago Ponzinibbio -120* vs Zak Cummings
Loss 8/6/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Joseph Gigliotti -125* vs Trevor Smith
Win 8/6/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Maryna Moroz -270* vs Danielle Taylor
Win 8/6/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Court McGee -220* vs Dominique Steele
Win 8/6/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 Marcin Tybura -140* vs Viktor Pesta
Win 8/6/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 David Teymur -150* vs Jason Novelli
Win 8/6/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Teruto Ishihara -230* vs Horacio Gutierrez
Win 8/6/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Cub Swanson -310

I know the heartbreak ... If Cummins coulda got that TKO I woulda hit a parlay and the prop for $225. Ugh frusterated

[Ty$]

I love that spot. Have it parlayed with Bermudez/Jason goes distance at around +550.

You are the man ... Futures

[Ty$]

Next up: McGregoat via murder

You're on drugs

[Ty$]

Final Total for the Night: +5.2775u

Started off super hot but faded a bit down the stretch. Big wins on Teymur, Smith and Ishihara. Losses on Cummings, Caceres, and Kawajiri. Overall I'm happy with the small win and hope to grind out consistent profits on as many cards as possible.

That's where I fail badly. I bet average $100 a card and if I'm to $200 after the card I feel like that was a loss. I either win big or lose my Benny which is starting to piss me off. Might have to bet safe for a bit.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think the -3.5 would be worth a shot, depending on the odds. Maybe Scorecards no action? Story MIGHT be able to grind out a 29-28 decision. I don't see Story finishing Cowboy, but can see cowboy finishing him. I can see either winning a close decision.

I think it will be somewhere in the (+150) area. Cowboy Scorecards No Action will probably be SUPER juiced since the consensus is that Story won't finish him. I'd guess in the realm of (-450). The Over 2.5 Rounds (-175) and Fight Goes Distance (-150) are also attractive.

[Hugo de Naranja]

$15.00 $1,616.46 $0.00 Loss 11 Team Parlay
Win 8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Yair Rodriguez -275* vs Alex Caceres
Win 8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Dennis Bermudez -245* vs Rony Jason
Win 8/6/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Thales Leites -170* vs Chris Camozzi
Win 8/6/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Santiago Ponzinibbio -120* vs Zak Cummings
Loss 8/6/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Joseph Gigliotti -125* vs Trevor Smith
Win 8/6/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Maryna Moroz -270* vs Danielle Taylor
Win 8/6/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Court McGee -220* vs Dominique Steele
Win 8/6/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 Marcin Tybura -140* vs Viktor Pesta
Win 8/6/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 David Teymur -150* vs Jason Novelli
Win 8/6/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Teruto Ishihara -230* vs Horacio Gutierrez
Win 8/6/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Cub Swanson -310

Damn so close. Very impressive even though Gig ****** you

[Hugo de Naranja]

That's where I fail badly. I bet average $100 a card and if I'm to $200 after the card I feel like that was a loss. I either win big or lose my Benny which is starting to piss me off. Might have to bet safe for a bit.

Everybody has their own style. I like to pick the one or two most likely outcomes for each fight so I can try to make a profit however the fight ends. Many think this is too conservative and I sometimes end up hedging away some profit. No one style is right for anyone and I'm sure those nights that you win huge are awesome.

[Thrilla]

8 of the 12 fights went to distance on this card. Is it because the altitude factor that fighters now focus more on cardio and maybe save energy early in the fight? What are the results for previous cards with high altitude-ish conditions? Do we have a new trend?

[Killer_Demo]

Just like i said, ishihara had women last night, there's a pic floating around of him on a bed with 5 women last night

[Thrilla]

Just like i said, ishihara had women last night, there's a pic floating around of him on a bed with 5 women last night

https://twitter.com/teruto_ko/status/762261248331304961

https://twitter.com/teruto_ko

[Rich Benjamins]

It seems everyone's got a strong opinion on this one. Hopefully it will be a great fight!

I don't have a strong opinion. I think it's a pickem. I don't think it's worth a bet either way. Diaz has proven to not be champion material. And McGregor underestimated him in the last fight, supposedly is training much harder now. McGregor needs to win this, the stakes are high for him (at least in his mind). And then there's the obvious advantages that Diaz has. It's a tough one.

[Rich Benjamins]

Damn so close. Very impressive even though Gig ****** you

Amazing. This illustrates the downsides to parlays. If you had bet every one individually you would've killed it. But you ended up actually losing despite some great picks.

[JIBBBY]

Hard to win big when all the favorites are hitting on the card like last night.. Parlays and props is what you have to work and those aren't always gonna hit..

I kept the betting amounts down last night.. Mostly $100 for each fight.. So the chances of winning big or losing big weren't gonna happen either way..

I like those dog heavy cards!! Let's see if the next card offers up some doggies ....

[Thrilla]

[CaptChaos145]

Amazing. This illustrates the downsides to parlays. If you had bet every one individually you would've killed it. But you ended up actually losing despite some great picks.

Correct but very little risk. He omly lost $15 bucks.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Correct but very little risk. He omly lost $15 bucks.

My guess is Paper bet a lot of those fights straight for a big profit and then added a full-card parlay at for a few $ just for fun.

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah and the sad part....he was the only fighter I knew nothing about....just picked him and it was 15$.....gotta remember to stay sharper and leave out dumb penetrates ive never seen throw a punch....

Damn so close. Very impressive even though Gig ****** you

[PaperTrail07]

100%......I absolutely did not lose on this card....I had bunch of other parlays....straight bets ect.....

My guess is Paper bet a lot of those fights straight for a big profit and then added a full-card parlay at for a few $ just for fun.

[PaperTrail07]

that was just the lotto ticket.......

[Ty$]

that was just the lotto ticket.......

I want to see your plays for 202. These parlays are addicting it sucks. War Diaz!