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Trying Fernando Bruno, I just feel Gray Maynard is completely washed up.. Bruno is nothing special but at +odds I'll try it for a benny.... Bruno has never been KO'd either.. Chance he could get grapple focked but I'm not betting on that with Maynard.. This should be Maynard's last fight in the UFC after the loss.
Gray Maynard has lost 4 fights in a row now.. He looks like shiiit... Doubts will be creeping into his mind if the fight lasts past the first few minutes....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Fernando-Bruno-25491
$100.00 $120.00 Pending 7/8/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Fernando Bruno +120* vs Gray Maynard Comment -
Kevin Lee vs Jake Mathews is a tough fight to gauge.. Good match up... I wanna give Kevin Lee a chance at those +140 odds but haven't pulled the trigger on that yet.. Jake Mathews the Aussie wonder boy is no push over but could be a bit over hyped...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jake-Matthews-122139Comment -
I really like the Jedrzejczyk ML here. For me, this fight comes down to Claudia taking JJ down. Although both are strong on the feet, JJ has a clear striking advantage.
If this were an immediate rematch of their first fight, I think these odds would be appropriate but there are some significant differences that should play to JJ's advantage. First off, Jedrzejczyk had three fights since the first fight with Claudia in 2014. She had 2 TKOs and a wide unanimous decision win. Claudia has just had one fight in this time, a dominant win over Jessica Aguilar. With these title fights, JJ has shown she can fight five rounds at high pace without fading while Claudia has struggled with cardio as early as the third round.
Since the first Claudia fight, JJ has displayed stellar takedown defense, stuffing 22/24 takedown attempts. If she is able to keep this on the feet, Jedrzejczyk should be able to score a UD win or even a TKO. Also notable is that Gadelha's explosive takedowns take lots of energy. If she is unable to find success with them early, she will struggle to contend with an energized JJ in the championship rounds.
Although it is totally possible that Gadelha has improved her cardio and ends up controlling this fight, we have seen more evidence of improvement in JJ's recent fights than Gadelha/Aguilar. Gadelha has steamed pretty big so I wonder if there is non-public information (major undisclosed injury etc.) or if the betting public just like Gadelha's chances. Here are some bets that I like:
Jedrzejczyk ML (-120)
Jedrzejczyk -5.5 (+180)
Jedrzejczyk Unanimous Decision (+315)
Jedrzejczyk KO/TKO (+360)
Jedrzejczyk Round 4 (+1600)
Jedrzejczyk Round 5 (+1800)Comment -
It's hard to bet TKO finishes with these women but you just know JJ wants to stop her and prove a point. I think JJ had an injury or was sick or something to justify that much line movement but I'm sure the line will move back in JJ's favor on Friday.Comment -
Will Brooks - 2nd RD Submission
Do Ho Choi - 1st RD TKO. Must avoid the ground, which I think he'll be able to. Make it 8 consecutive TKO/KO victories for the Korean SuperBoy.
Jake Matthews - UD. Should be able to take Lee down at will. If he fights the same way he did vs Johnny Case, no doubt he'll get the finish.
Claudia - Sexy Butt. What a trilogy it would be if she handed Joanna her first L and takes the title. Oddsmakers now giving Claudia a respectable chance and making it much closer than when it initially opened. I like Joanna, but feel Claudia gets the nod.Comment -
I might be overthinking it, but i feel like TUF is part of the reason for the line movement. The show makes JJ come off as a bit of a b!tch, and people love betting against fighters that are dislikable. Claudia has also dominated Joanna 's team, and they try to make it look like JJ is a bit mentally bothered. I think Claudia needs to start very strong or even finish in the first or 2nd, or JJ takes over. I'll probably be on JJ ML, for a fe units, not too big.
Claudia has also said she doesn't cut as much weight anymor and diets all year, so her cardio MIGHT be better, hard to know.Comment -
Yeah all this is good insight. I also saw that and she looks thinner. However, until a fighter has PROVED that their cardio has improved in an actual fight, I don't think you can give too much credit to what they are saying in the media. Claudia could definitely win this fight but I don't think its the coin-flip that this line suggestsComment -
- In 2014, Poland’s Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Brazil’s Claudia Gadelha delivered a three-round war that showed UFC fans just how exciting the strawweight division could be. This year, they have already met again as coaches on The Ultimate Fighter, and on Friday, July 8th in Las Vegas, they will battle for the UFC strawweight championship.
- The Polish striker talks about her passion for MMA and why she feels right at home inside the Octagon.
- Ahead of the most action-packed week in UFC history, UFC hosts a media conference call with Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Claudia Gadelha, Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes Wednesday, June 29 at 2 p.m. PT/5 p.m. ET.
- #1 ranked women's Strawweight Claudia Gadelha believes that she is the perfect fighter to dethrone undefeated champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and bring the belt home to Brazil.
- Get an inside look at what the training camp for strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk looks like. From the diet to the gym, see it all here.
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I always like the Overs or distance bets with the little chicks as more times then not their fights seem to go the distance. I will never play an under with the small chicks.. Small dudes are hard to finish as well and I don't like playing the unders in those either..
The little people just don't pack the same knock out power as the big boys.. They also are so quick and small they can usually worm and wiggle their way out of submissions and get back to their feet easily and often at the UFC level.. So the fights usually become a stand up point contest for the duration...Comment -
So heres my thoughts on this fight:
I think Joanna will take the win.
Go back to there first match for two things. First Joanna's hitting power is plenty enough to KO and rock Gadelha, end of first round.
However, one must still give credit to Gadelha for her seven takedowns, though nothing really came about from them, as Joanna was able to work her way to the fence each time and stand up. There is something else in this, working her way to the fence.
Now fast forward to Joanna/Esparza where Esparza who was champion at the time and suppose to be the TD master was only able to land a pathetic 1 out of 17 attempted TD...pitiful.
Go to the Joanna/Penne fight and the story gets even worse. Joanna displayed 3 noticeable things in this fight. First some of the takedown methods used previously on her, she displayed the ability to now combat effectively. Second, her striking was coming at noticeably quicker speed than when she fought Gadelha, and with the addition of some impressive kicks added into the mix which again was not very prevalent in the Gadelha fight.
Lastly, when she hurt Penne at least on two occasions a flurry of quick but not fight ending strikes followed. However, Joanna noticed the ref's inaction and when she hurt Penne for the last time took her time to find openings for her punches and knees, which now spurred the ref to prompt Penne to defend herself or be stopped, ulitimately stopped. Guess its back to crackin beer cans open for Penne with that giant tucan beak of a nose. This last point is really just a display of Joanna able to recognize her mistakes against her opponent and not only learn but adjust to them in the fight.
Gadelha isn't without hope here but if she wants to win striking is and ill-advised method. If she can land the TD center octagon, and keep her there this is the worst possible scenario for Joanna, so expect to see her crawl her way back to the cage like she did in there first match. Joanna's use of kicks would be ill-advised center octagon as well, it would make a single leg attempt that much easier, however if she is near the cage I fully expect to see her utilize some nasty kicks/knees to help rough up Gadelha.
This win is not impossible for Gadelha, but it is definitely not in her favor with Joanna's improvement over her last 3 fights.Comment -
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Do you think Claudia switches to the favourite? I do.Comment -
Over load of MMA this coming weekend..
All the top MMA sports writers still haven't gotten anything out yet.. I'm sure that MMA overload of three events and it being the 4th of July has something to do with that...Comment -
Im betting they will do like bleacher report, combine the undercards and prelims, and go over the title shots and co main events seperately. But i prefer mmamania and junkie before most other writers.
I think them 2 stick to there guns and do each seperately. Gonna be a mad dash wensday/thursday predictionsComment -
I think these points would hold more water if the opponent was the same but Gadelha is better than Penne and Esparza. Esparza is a 1 trick pony so JJ didn't have to worry about her stand up. JJ knew Esparza would shoot non stop. Penne does not have the TD skill of Gadelha or Esparza so she is going top open up more.
Gadelha can win this fight no doubt. I think it's a pick-em fight but I have JJ in a big parlay so I want her to finish Gadelha in the 5th. LOLComment -
I ain't gonna get into my parlays, got too damn many, mighta went overboard a bit, but I digress...the only point that really matters based on opponents is what she uses strike-wise.
It doesn't matter who her opponent is, her TDD has improved.
It doesn't matter who her opponent is, the speed at which she threw her strikes has improved.
It doesn't matter who her opponent is, anytime a fighter displays the ability to learn and get better, especially in the fight, that's bad for her opponent.
Don't get me wrong, you can view other threads I have made and see I don't discount Gadelha, but...as much as a beast as she is, Joanna is every bit as good. She's had a long time to learn defensive counters to Gadelha's strategy, and Gadelha has a hell of a ways to go before reaching Joanna's level of striking, though she does it pretty good, and with power. I do agree that Gadelha is better than Penne, Esparza, and Letourneau, but better or not she didn't exactly throw her first fight, she came at her with everything, and while it was close, it was a loss.
I think what it will eventually come down to is, both know they sucked at certain aspects during their first fight, so who has improved enough in those areas to take this fight?Comment -
I hear you on Gray but Gray has recently lost to guys that can put you out... Diaz, Pearson, etc... Bruno is not that guy. This will also be Gray's first fight at FW. In his last fight he fought a huge LW that moved up to WW in Yakovlev. That fight went the distance. Gray is back in Las Vegas and feeling better so they say. I really like Grey here.Comment -
This event got next. Weigh ins -
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Decent write up...
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Claudia Gadelha
Mookie Alexander: Gadelha is still a very dangerous opponent who has a credible (but not necessarily a very strong) case for having won the first fight with Joanna. The interesting thing here is that Joanna has fought 3 times and has won comfortably every single time. We've seen Gadelha fight only 2 non-Joanna opponents in the UFC, of which neither Tina Lahdemaki nor Jessica Aguilar has had another UFC fight since then. Gadelha was really sharp in the first two rounds against Aguilar, but Aguilar had success with those leg kicks and Gadelha started to fade in the final round. I can see Gadelha scoring with some big shots, but not generating enough of a sustained attack either standing, clinching, or in pursuing the takedowns. When this goes into the later rounds, I think it favors Joanna heavily. Her footwork, volume, and diversity of strikes is just going to be too much, and she will once again demonstrate exemplary takedown defense. Joanna Jedrzejczyk by unanimous decision.
Anton Tabuena: Both fighters seem to have improved a lot since their first bout, but I think Joanna should be able to take this one again. Joanna (remains) Champion by Decision.
Jed Meshew: Joanna is gonna win much more impressively this time. Both have improved but JJ has done so in a way that will more meaningfully affect the fight. Gadelha has improved her striking but prolonged exchanges on the feet don't favor her. Meanwhile, Joanna is a markedly better defensive wrestler and more importantly, she's become one of the best fighters in MMA at disincentivizing takedowns. Every time someone clinches with her or shoots on her, Joanna extracts a toll. Gadelha may have moments early but JJ will punish her for coming inside and take over as Gadelha begins to fade. Joanna Champion by 5th round TKO.
Staff picking Jedrzejczyk: Nick, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Gadelha: Bissell, Tim
Will Brooks vs. Ross Pearson
Mookie Alexander: Short of a KO that's similar to what Saad Awad achieved, this is just not the type of opponent Pearson ever does well against. Pearson's takedown defense is good, but not great. If Evan Dunham can take him down at will, so can Will Brooks (see what I did there?). From there, Brooks has great control on top, even though he's not exactly a dangerous finishing threat. I also think Brooks can outstrike Pearson too, but he'll more than likely grind Pearson out on his way to a decision. Will Brooks by unanimous decision.
Anton Tabuena: Expectations are high, but I think this will be a lot closer than what people think. That said, Brooks should still be able to outwrestle him en route to a possibly lackluster decision. Will Brooks by Decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I have some queries around how Brooks' patient, attritive game translates into fighting the elite in the UFC- being a lightweight he may struggle to get the 5-rounder main events which would really maximize his chances, and I think he gets more utilized to beef up Fox and PPV main cards. Also worth keeping an eye on how he performs when he's not comfortably the bigger man in the cage, as he was in Bellator. That being said, while Pearson provides some interesting and unique boxing threats, he's not a great defensive wrestler and Brooks should be able to duplicate what Evan Dunham did without a lot of issue. Will Brooks by unanimous decision.
Jed: I'm gonna pick Brooks because it makes sense but Ross Pearson is one of those fighters I can never seem to get a good read on and the track record of debuting stars in the UFC is checkered at best. Brooks by decision.
Staff picking Brooks: Nick, Bissell, Phil Stephie, Anton, Tim, Mookie, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Pearson:
Doo Ho Choi vs. Thiago Tavares
Mookie Alexander: Can't just discount Tavares here because he is quite dangerous on the ground and is at least competent on the feet, but he just gets hit way too much for me to trust him to take Choi's power early. Things may get interesting if Tavares puts Choi on his back and this drags out into the later rounds, but otherwise Korean Superboy is about to give Tavares a superwhooping. Doo Ho Choi via KO, round 1.
Anton Tabuena: This will be fun, but probably not exactly competitive. Doo Ho Choi by TKO.
Phil Mackenzie: Tavares needs to nose his way into takedowns. While he's improved there, he's still a wooden and hittable phase-shifter who doesn't move his head much and tends to take damage. So, style-wise Choi should be able to win this, but this is admittedly a pretty massive step-up from Sicilia and Puig. Doo Ho Choi by TKO, round 2
Staff picking Choi: Nick, Bissell, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Tavares: Tim
Andrew Holbrook vs. Joaquim Silva
Phil Mackenzie: Close fight. More power and finishing ability for Silva, but he's one of those guys who loves overusing step knees and flying knees as takedown defense. I think Holbrook is a good enough grappler to not have to worry about the BJJ game, and a patient enough striker to be able to set up entries and not worry about the knees. Andrew Holbrook by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Holbrook: Bissell, Phil, Stephie, Anton, Tim, Mookie
Staff picking Silva: Nick, Zane
Fernando Bruno vs. Gray Maynard
Mookie Alexander: Maynard is a featherweight now, by the way. The hard way it is, Earnest. Gray Maynard by split decision.
Anton Tabuena: Pretty crazy how past rivals Maynard and Edgar are now both fighting in the same division, on the same weekend, but on completely different career archs. I'm not usually one to call for retirements, but if Maynard can't beat a guy like Bruno, that would be 6 losses in 7 bouts and he probably should hang it up. Gray Maynard by Decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I hate making picks like this. Bottom-rung UFC talent against a fighter who appears to be desperately trying to find something which isn't there any more. I guess a closer than expected, dreadful wrestling-based decision where everyone still wants Maynard to retire afterwards and he looks panicked while hitting takedowns is my expectation. If you'd said that the UFC could find a featherweight that I'd pick Maynard to beat, I would have likely called you a liar so... congratulations, I guess? Gray Maynard by split decision.
Staff picking Bruno: Nick, Stephie
Staff picking Maynard: Bissell, Phil, Anton, Tim, Mookie, Zane, Jed
Cezar Ferreira vs. Anthony Smith
Mookie Alexander: I cannot trust Cezar Mutante to not get rocked against just about anyone he ever fights. So with that in mind, I probably won't pick him to win most fights unless it's against the absolute bottom of the barrel. Smith is almost at that level, but I think he's just a bit above it and probably can do enough to somehow knock Ferreira out, too. Anthony Smith by KO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: The Rocky theme is heavily overused, but the fact that Mutante has starting coming out to it is great. The films would be absurdist masterpieces if Balboa had Mutante's chin. All the training and speeches and "Adriaaannn" kept intact, then Rocky gets flatlined with the first punch that Creed lands. Anyway, Mutante should win this, with the big and obvious caveat that he is who he is and is thus at risk of getting splattered by anyone at any time, and tends to underwhelm even when he doesn't get dusted. Cezar Ferreira by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Mutante: Bissell, Phil, Anton, Tim
Staff picking Smith: Nick, Stephie, Mookie, Zane
John Moraga vs. Matheus Nicolau
Phil Mackenzie: Flyweight is brutal right now. The Mouse needs challengers, but no-one cares about the division. Fighter development is very low on the agenda, so young and skilled fighters are getting tossed into the deep waters, with the implicit question being "are you one of the fastest developing fighters we've ever seen? If not then whatever." So, Nicolau: good power and physicality, excellent punching mechanics and a nose for submission grappling. But he's fighting 125's Ricardo Lamas: awkward but integrated, capable of grinding out rounds or capitalizing on errors. Too early. John Moraga by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Moraga: Nick, Phil, Stephie, Anton, Tim, Mookie, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Nicolau: Bissell
Kevin Lee vs. Jake Matthews
Mookie Alexander: Phil pretty much nails it for me. Lee and Matthews have shown their defensive liabilities in the past, but I think Matthews is more offensively potent and on a quicker learning curve at this stage in their respective careers. Jake Matthews by TKO, round 2.
Anton Tabuena: Matthews deserves the same marketing push as Northcutt, who is also fighting this weekend. They're both young, talented and good looking guys who fight at the same division, but Matthews seems by far the more promising prospect between the two. That said, I'm glad that they're not rushing the 21-year-old as this is a pretty good test that to show how much he has developed. Jake Matthews by Submission.
Phil Mackenzie: Lateral step for Matthews. Lee is bigger and more physical than Johnny Case, but much less offensively diverse and dangerous. Matthews is a freak, and his timing and distance control are rapidly starting to catch up with the rest of his game, including some murderous body shots. If Lee can hit takedowns easily this fight could change strongly in his favour, but overall I think that if Matthews gets the kind of fight that Efrain Escudero gave Lee then his sheer horsepower will pull him away. Jake Matthews by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Lee: Nick, Tim
Staff picking Matthews: Bissell, Phil, Stephie, Anton, Zane, Jed
Li Jingliang vs. Anton Zafir
Mookie Alexander: Anton sucks, and I'm not talking about Zafir. Li Jingliang by KO, round 1.
Anton Tabuena: I don't know what Mookie is talking about, because I heard Anton's are awesome... I mean this Anton is probably getting choked out by the Chinese star, but that in no way reflects badly on the other awesome Antons. Li Jingliang by Submission.
Phil Mackenzie: Jingliang lost his last fight to a magical teleporting backtake and choke, but he was kicking the shit out of Nakamura before then. He's a rugged, fearless combination boxer as well as being a smothering clinch grappler. Zafir is tough but profoundly unathletic and won't be able to deal with the pace and the pressure. Li Jingliang by TKO, round 2.Comment -
Plays for tomorrow: (Not a whole lot since I didn't bother to cap the TUF 23 fights #laziness)
Jingliang ITD (+115)
Matthews ML (-150/-135)
Matthews KO/TKO (+445)
Matthews Round 3 (+1075)
Moraga ML (-170/-155/-150)
Moraga KO/TKO (+465/+500)
Bruno ML (+145)
Holbrook ML (+110)
Holbrook Submission (+390)
Tavares Submission (+510)
Pearson (+335)
Pearson Decision (+615)
Jedzejczyk ML (-120)
Jedzejczyk -5.5 (+180)
Jedrzejczyk wins by TKO/KO (+495)
Jedrzejczyk wins in round 4 (+1900)
Jedrzejczyk wins in round 5 (+2400)
Jedrzejczyk wins by 5 rd unanimous dec (+170/+315)
I think Moraga -points is one of the best bets on this card. Anyone know why it's not on 5Ds?
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wow never watched any of this season but you got Jedzejczyk telling Gadelha to "go home, go back to the jungle"Comment -
- UFC Matchmakers Joe Silva and Sean Shelby break down the main event rematch of The Ultimate Fighter Finale between strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha.
- UFC strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk is happy to settle the score once and for all with fellow Ultimate Fighter coach Claudia Gadelha.
- The boys are back with another Inside The Octagon One Round Challenge ahead of Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Claudia Gadelha
- EA SPORTS UFC 2’s in-game simulation engine predicts the winner of the Ultimate Fighter Finale - Team Joanna vs Team Claudia.
- Megan Olivi sits down with Claudia Gadelha to recap her experience on The Ultimate Fighter and preview her championship rematch against UFC strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
- Preview of the matchups for TUF Finale, including finalists from the light heavyweight and strawweight divisions, Khalil Rountree, Andrew Sanchez, Tatiana Suarez and Amanda Cooper. Also, the main event between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha.
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- Before TUF 23 Finale, Joanna Jedrzejczyk discussed life on The Ultimate Fighter, her new strength and much more.
- Claudia Gadelha discusses her TUF performance, the rematch with Joanna Jedrzeczyk, and more.
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Johnny Hendricks was confirmed shaking on the scale during morning weigh insComment -
My top 3 plays are
Joanna straight/by dec
Mathews straight/by dec
Smith straight/KO
And I feel like these 3 fighters should be a lot more of faves here.
I have these 3 prop parlayed also in a few diff ways ...
Down $30 from last night. Eddie saved me from complete failure. I went real hard on Jouban by KO is what really killed me. So dam close!! I don't see much value in dogs tonight maybe Pearson can squeak out a dec which I have very little on. Good luck gents!Comment -
Claudia Gadelha says a 5 rounder is in her advantage because in their first fight she got stronger as the fight progressed.
However I don't see any experience of her fighting 5 rounders before while Joanna Jedrzejczyk has the experience of a 5 rounder vs Valerie Letourneau.Comment -
- An urgent plea for UFC fans to stop sending dick pics to TUF 23 Finale's Claudia Gadelha http://www.mmamania.com/2016/7/6/121...ia-gadelha-mma
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so many pick'ems tonight alot of money to be made or lost...not laying all that juiceComment -
Ok here is how I'm gonna play the first half of this card.. Not going nuts with any of the bets.. Keeping all bets in the $100 to $150 range.. Alot of these fighters are raw and unproven still so I'm playing the straights rather then the props on a bunch of them..
Fight #1 -
$129.00 $100.00 Pending 7/8/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2105 Jingliang wins inside distance -129* vs Not Jingliang inside distance
Fight #2 -
$150.00 $100.00 Pending 7/8/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Jake Matthews -150* vs Kevin Lee
Fight #3 -
$100.00 $105.00 Pending 7/8/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Cezar Ferreira +105* vs Anthony Smith
Fight #4 -
$100.00 $315.00 Pending 7/8/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1805 Hendricks wins inside distance +315* vs Not Hendricks inside distance
Fight #5 -
$150.00 $100.00 Pending 7/8/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 John Moraga -150* vs Matheus Nicolau
Fight #6 -
$100.00 $120.00 Pending 7/8/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Fernando Bruno +120* vs Gray Maynard $50.00 $565.00 Pending 7/8/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1627 Bruno wins by submission +1130* vs Any other result Comment -
We might have a case to try under or no distance between Joanna & Claudia
under 4.5 odds @ +205 (5dimes)
no distance @ +180 (5dimes)
- record:
Joanna record 11-0-0 6x distance
Claudia record 13-1-0 6x distance
25 fights combined 12x distance = 48%
- Both fighters claim to have worked on their strengths since last fight so more punching power.
- Alot of bad blood in build up to the fight. Will this result in losing concentration during the fight? Did Joanna get into Claudia's head (Aldo vs McGregror example) or does this make them wanna take less risks cause it would be extra embarsassing to lose now. Claudia does claim to be heavy handed this time. (I have heavy hands when I'm angry.)
- Claudia lost last fight because of poor judging in her mind. So she looks to finish the fight. She says to have worked on her finishing skills and claims to be more ruthless now.
- Odds movement suggests under the total.
Check out interview below. Claudia says how she think the fight will go. She makes a strong statement that this fight will not go to distance.
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