UFC on Fox 18: Jan 30th

[JoshKnows46]

just dipping my feet in, will add more.

Tarec Saffiedine -200 Risking $1200 to win $600

Andrew Holbrook +260 Risking $250 to win $650

Jimmie Rivera -155 Risking $387.50 to win $250
Jimmie Rivera -140 Risking $350 to win $250
Jimmie Rivera +105 Risking $238.10 to win $250

[iceman86]

Great picks again josh . Youve made me a lot of money over the last 3 ufcs and even on the last one i profitted a ton cuz i slammed tumenov instead of condit . Keep it up champ. Im with you on rivera i think he dominates and ton of value on Holbrook as well , and ellenberger been looking like shit lately so i could see tarec winnin a dec , 3rd stnd up fight, i think im gonna go tarec by dec, i wonder what the odds on that is

[JoshKnows46]

Great picks again josh . Youve made me a lot of money over the last 3 ufcs and even on the last one i profitted a ton cuz i slammed tumenov instead of condit . Keep it up champ. Im with you on rivera i think he dominates and ton of value on Holbrook as well , and ellenberger been looking like shit lately so i could see tarec winnin a dec , 3rd stnd up fight, i think im gonna go tarec by dec, i wonder what the odds on that is

Thanks man, I know most of tarecs wins are by dec, but ellenberger is looking real old out there, and his mental has to have tookin a hit, will lead to questioning ones self and mistakes, losing 4 of the last 5, only win being against a washed up koscheck, and being finished in 3 of the last 4, i'd play it safe and bet Tarec straight and take the easy money, wouldnt get cute with it and try to predict the outcome in this one, tarec could easily finish him, saffiedine will do his part, dont be the reason you lose money on this fight, you only pay the juice if you lose .... Saffiedine wins by 3 round decision is at -110 currently.

[iceman86]

Yup , i totally agree with you on that... so im a little worried about slamming dillashaw , cuz i usually bet close to your bet sizes , u think dominick has ring rust ? Its funny cuz TJ has kinda based his style and footwork on dominicks , so how do u think this fight plays out ? Dominick will probably be harder to hit than anyone TJ has faced so far , do you agree on that? I still think TJl probably takes the dec , but its hard to predict what dominick shows up ? Your thoughts brother

[iceman86]

Also how do you feel about trinaldo bud ? I think at +150 hes worth looking at .. i was very impressed by him smashing laprise like that , and even tho i hit Pearson at +375 against felder it ws a pure value bet , and think trinaldo will have the right answers/gameplan for pearson, he seems to use angles very well , plus a gret chin . Kind of a coinflip fight , i might even cap it at -130 trinaldo . Tell me what ya think buds , i really value your opinion and always laugh at these clowns on here always doubting you amd arguing with you and keep getting proven wrong and still talking siht ..

[bjpenn85]

Im on all of them. Great picks! You can get Rivera @ 1.80 on Unibet, so dont waste your last drops on 5Dimes buddy!

[JoshKnows46]

Also how do you feel about trinaldo bud ? I think at +150 hes worth looking at .. i was very impressed by him smashing laprise like that , and even tho i hit Pearson at +375 against felder it ws a pure value bet , and think trinaldo will have the right answers/gameplan for pearson, he seems to use angles very well , plus a gret chin . Kind of a coinflip fight , i might even cap it at -130 trinaldo . Tell me what ya think buds , i really value your opinion and always laugh at these clowns on here always doubting you amd arguing with you and keep getting proven wrong and still talking siht ..

Value is def will trinaldo, but there's risks to making the play, ROSS has been working on his wrestling, fight should be even money, but I probable will not make a bet on it. It's a coin flip, don't see a advantage to making a play, if it goes up much higher, I'll be forced into making a play on trinaldo for a unit, 300.

[JoshKnows46]

Yup , i totally agree with you on that... so im a little worried about slamming dillashaw , cuz i usually bet close to your bet sizes , u think dominick has ring rust ? Its funny cuz TJ has kinda based his style and footwork on dominicks , so how do u think this fight plays out ? Dominick will probably be harder to hit than anyone TJ has faced so far , do you agree on that? I still think TJl probably takes the dec , but its hard to predict what dominick shows up ? Your thoughts brother

I'm not done betting on dillashaw, thought the line would rightfully skyrocket, so I got my feet wet with 3500, but it has went down, I will have upwards of 7000 on dillashaw before I'm done, hoping the weighins hype and cruz can continue to goat more people into betting on him, just watching the line for now. Cruz has no path to victory, he can't ko or sub dillashaw and he can't win a dec. I give him less then 5 percent at inside the distance, and less then 20 percent a dec, also give him less then 20 percent at making it the distance, as you can see, I have the line way off from were it's set. Very few cover ground like killashaw covers ground and cuts off the cage, this is a absolute horrible matchup for Cruz, dillashaw matches his speed but with more force and power, it's easy to throw pitter, pat punches and seem fast, but dillashaw matches that speed but with more force, cruz can't successfully do the things that make his game work against dillashaw because dillashaw also doesn't stay in orthodox or southpaw exclusively like cruz is use to, if Cruz does his usual game it will leave him open to a fight ending ko or head kick. Dillashaws wrestling is also far better then cruz, and his ability to go from striking to wrestling will be a huge problem for cruz. Dillashaw didn't get his fighting style from cruz, he never fought southpaw till he started training with dwayne, dwayne taught him his style. Cruz didn't invent his style, he just applied it to mma before anyone else did, and there for No one knew what to do with it, kinda like what duffy did to mcgregor in ireland as far as bbj, duffy wouldn't have a shot in hell at doing that today just as cruz doesn't have a shot in hell at implementing his gameplan against the more athletic, more powerful dillashaw, who is better at it, and has tte fight ending power to redirect people and create better angles, dillashaw uses it more offensive, he crushes cruz striking stats in every area. Something else cruz did before others is he was cutting a massive amount before others, he fought guys that didn't belong in his weight class, this fight should be well over -300, cruz name value is why we are blessed with such amazing value, it's people perception vs the reality, cruz will be dominated From the start to the finish, from octagon pillar to post. If you bet similar to what I bet, 300 being your base unit, then 3500 should be the absolute minimum you place on this bout. It doesn't hurt he has only 1 fight in the last 5 years and just 90 seconds in a fight, but even if Cruz was in his prime, and active the last 2 years, he couldn't beat the dillashaw of today.

[Sanity Check]

Does anyone know if Sage Northcutt is training at Tristar?

There's conflicting info. Awhile back, Sage said he planned to return to Tristar after his last fight and work on the holes he has in his game. Other sources said Sage's dad pulled him out of Tristar because he didn't like something about the way they train and Sage wasn't returning there. Maybe the biggest variable in how Sage's next fight goes.

[TPowell]

Does anyone know if Sage Northcutt is training at Tristar?

There's conflicting info. Awhile back, Sage said he planned to return to Tristar after his last fight and work on the holes he has in his game. Other sources said Sage's dad pulled him out of Tristar because he didn't like something about the way they train and Sage wasn't returning there. Maybe the biggest variable in how Sage's next fight goes.

Could have swore his dad took him out of Tristar

[Sanity Check]

Could have swore his dad took him out of Tristar

0:54 seems to contradict that.

[TPowell]

weird, there was big thread on it on the forums on another site. Just skimmed it though

[JoshKnows46]

Last I heard he wasn't because of schooling, he cant go fulltime, and tristar pace was too much for him according to his dad that was on Dec 2nd, but sounds like from that video he planned to go back weeks at a time, and is planning on bouncing back and forth from camps according to the video. Tristar is overrated, hopefully they don't turn him into a point fighter after he loses next weekend.

[Sanity Check]

Looks like 2 sherdog judges scored it 30-27 in favor of Ramsey Nijem over Andrew Holbrook. Does anyone know what happened there?

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC-on-Fox-16-Results-Dillashaw-vs-Barao-2-PlaybyPlay-Updates-89457#andrew-holbrook-ramsey-nijem

If Holbrook didn't beat Ramsey Nijem, Sage vs Holbrook could be a setup fight.

I was watching old footage of Sage doing karate. It looks like he was a much better kickboxer when he was a kid. Once he hit 18-19 he got fat and lazy and his technique went downhill. He could rebound in a big way.

[bjpenn85]

If i was to compare both fighters standup i would give the advantage to Sage, but on the ground holbrock seems a better from what i have seen in the nijem fight. At least from guad, he that typical active guard, def a threat. Nijem had to give up top position several times in that fight because of Holbroocks submission attempt. Im not sure what going to happen if northcut ends up on the bottom, i thought he was kind of exposed as he didnt do nothing in the whole first round. I do think that Sage is probably adjusting after that lack lusting performance in the first round, although i hope not, since i have a small bet on Holbrock. But, i do think the most likely scenario here is that sage finds a way to' squeek out a decision. There may be other holes in Sages game, and im banking on conditioning issue, lack of iq, not able to get up from the ground, some sort of a faulty performance in favour of Holbrock to take the victory.

[iceman86]

Thanks for the detailed breakdown bro, i totally agree with you and will be throwing another 3 grand at least very soon , just watching the line myself , its at - 120 rt now on my site , so i will be jumping on it it very soon here . I DO think killashaw probably dominates everywhere like u said , hes kinda like dominick but with better wrestling , more power, and better fighter IQ i believe. And even if i thought different ive learned better than to doubt your opinion (ive been wrong every time i did) . So yeah lets go TJ , im gonna be risking close to 6000 on him , just put 300 on trinaldo too . I wass trying to break fown the meathead fight , i think Trav probably puts him away , but hes been looking so shaky lately , after he got together with ronda so i don't know what to think about him ,... meathead does have power too and in heavyweight one punch can make the difference. .. i dont think its probably not worth betting on.. so killashaw and trinaldo so far , might play alvarez dec and hedge with pettis ITD

[mirinquads]

Better fight IQ? Hilarious.

[JoshKnows46]

Thanks for the detailed breakdown bro, i totally agree with you and will be throwing another 3 grand at least very soon , just watching the line myself , its at - 120 rt now on my site , so i will be jumping on it it very soon here . I DO think killashaw probably dominates everywhere like u said , hes kinda like dominick but with better wrestling , more power, and better fighter IQ i believe. And even if i thought different ive learned better than to doubt your opinion (ive been wrong every time i did) . So yeah lets go TJ , im gonna be risking close to 6000 on him , just put 300 on trinaldo too . I wass trying to break fown the meathead fight , i think Trav probably puts him away , but hes been looking so shaky lately , after he got together with ronda so i don't know what to think about him ,... meathead does have power too and in heavyweight one punch can make the difference. .. i dont think its probably not worth betting on.. so killashaw and trinaldo so far , might play alvarez dec and hedge with pettis ITD

Meathead fight is a toss up, both aren't the brightest, not worth laying heavy on, best values are Travis by sub, or Meathead ko, could be worth throwing a fraction of a unit on both, only way you lose both is if Travis gets the ko, but Meathead sports the better chin of the two, it's more likely it's Travis by sub or Meathead by ko, and I don't see it going the distance. So betting both for a fraction of a unit would be the way to go, I wouldn't lay more than a unit at most on the fight as a whole, Travis sub, Meathead ko, tread lightly.

[Ultimatemeatball]

just dipping my feet in, will add more.

Tarec Saffiedine -200 Risking $1200 to win $600

Andrew Holbrook +260 Risking $250 to win $650

Jimmie Rivera -155 Risking $387.50 to win $250
Jimmie Rivera -140 Risking $350 to win $250
Jimmie Rivera +105 Risking $238.10 to win $250

Rivera is on a roll and will be fighting on his home turf. I hope he gets it done.

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Rivera -160 $1600
Rumble by ko/tko -245 $245
Rumble inside the distance -270 $920
Holbrook +320 $100

[thellama]

Thanks Josh, turn the page, lets get this.

[Kermit]

Definitely like Tarec.

[JIBBBY]

I haven't even began to cap this event yet.. I'm reading in though.. Josh and Tpow got the jump on this event...


I like to wait and read all the write ups before I start breaking down prelim fights and fighters that I don't really know well...

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Natal -150 $1500
Dwyer +170 $600

[TPowell]

liking the Dwyer play. What do you think about Dwyer ITD?

[mirinquads]

Added:
Natal -150 $1500
Dwyer +170 $600

Some good plays finally.

[capone1899]

When was Rivera ever +105? I looked through ever opening odd/movement and never saw anything less than -129

[JoshKnows46]

When was Rivera ever +105? I looked through ever opening odd/movement and never saw anything less than -129

I hit the +105 @ unibet, it's not for Americans, most of my family lives in Europe, that's how I have a account with them.

[TPowell]

any thoughts on the Barnett or OAM fight?

[FreddieUFC]

any thoughts on the Barnett or OAM fight?

I've 2 units on Ferreira to beat OAM. Can't quite decide on Barnett vs Rothwell, reckon I'll probably steer clear.

Lost big time betting favourites (mainly Dillashaw & Pettis) on the last card so keeping it low key this time round.

Dwyer, Barbs & Ferreira my only bets so far.

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Brian/sage over 1.5 -125 Risking $1000
Brian finishes in round 3 +1900 Risking $100
Carlos Diego Ferreira +230 Risking $150
Carlos Diego Ferreira in the distance +405 Risking $150

Parlay:
Brian +350
Carlos +225
Dwyer +160
$100 to win $3702.50

[JoshKnows46]

My Final Card:
Tarec Saffiedine -200 Risking $1200 to win $600
Jimmie Rivera -160/-140/-155/+105 Risking $2575.60
Rumble Johnson by ko/tko*-245 $245
Rumble Johnson inside the distance -270 $920
Natal -150 $1500
Dwyer +170 $600
Bryan Barberena +350 $900 to win $3150
Bryan Barberena inside the distance +630 $100 to win $630
Brian/sage over 1.5 -125 Risking $1000
Brian finishes in round 3 +1900 Risking $100
Carlos Diego Ferreira +230 Risking $150
Carlos Diego Ferreira in the distance +405 Risking $150

Parlay:
Brian +350
Carlos +225
Dwyer +160
$100 to win $3702.50

[JoshKnows46]

added 1 more:

Ortiz finishes in round 3 +1475 Risking $50 to win $737.50 (of ortiz's last 4 finishes, all 4 were in the 3rd round, dated back to 2010, he either wins in the 3rd or his fights have gone the distance, this is a close match-up, so it should last at least till the 3rd, so think this is worth a stab.) ( (I'm not, but you can hedge with dec prob if you like, and this becomes basically a free roll for $700, because this is a close fight and I expect it to go to the 3rd round at minimum.)

[JoshKnows46]

Added
Rumble Johnson inside the distance -185 risking $2000 (hedged with 100 on johnson by dec at +1070

[prior22usaf]

Added
Rumble Johnson inside the distance -185 risking $2000 (hedged with 100 on johnson by dec at +1070

Josh, thanks for the picks bud.... However, My book doesn't allow the ITD prop bet.... There are just options to bet Rumble by KO, Submission, or Decision...

Could you give me some advice on how to spread it out among those?

RYAN BADER VRS ANTHONY JOHNSON: FIGHT OUTCOME
RYAN BADER BY KO,TKO OR DQ			<label>+896</label>
RYAN BADER BY SUBMISSION			<label>+601</label>
RYAN BADER BY DECISION			<label>+599</label>
ANTHONY JOHNSON BY KO,TKO OR DQ			<label>-191</label>
ANTHONY JOHNSON BY SUBMISSION			<label>+1621</label>
ANTHONY JOHNSON BY DECISION			<label>+793</label>
OUTCOME IS A DRAW			<label>+6500</label>