UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Miocic (May 09, 2015)

[JIBBBY]

Props just came out today on the fights fellas.... Bout tiiiime!!!

Still kinda liking the under round bet at +155... I really don't think this will be another Big Foot/Hunt going the distance fight either.. No way this goes 5 rounds... Don't think Stipe is Big Foot Silva on TRT either like when those 2 completely big gassed out dudes just gutting it out to a decision (Hunt/Big Foot).. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

A bet the board parlay play to consider (- 460 fight won't go the distance) might be a steal as crazy as that sounds even at those odds IMO... 41 year old Hunt can't make 5 rounds anymore and especially facing Stipe me tinks.... Hitting this in a parlay gents anyways.....




Thinking best value bets for this fight - I'd say if you are planning to bet on Mark Hunt straight to win at +200 forget it and go with "Hunt wins inside the distance" instead at +236 for best value...Better yet wait longer for the Hunt wins by KO prop to come out... No way Hunt wins by decision and out works the young Stipe for 5 rounds, Hunt isn't gonna win by sub either...

Flip side - Same goes with betting on Stipe straight to win at what -180 now?.. Forget that and take him winning ITD at -125 instead.... If the fight does go to the ground - Hunt will give up his neck or the ref will stop it before the end of round 5 due to the Stipe ground and pound one would think...

<small>Mark Hunt vs Stipe Miocic - Heavyweight 5 rounds - UFC Fight Night 65 propositions</small>
Sat 5/9		1003 Hunt / Miocic goes 5 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> +320
11:59PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -460
Sat 5/9		1005 Hunt wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +236
11:59PM		1006 Not Hunt inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4"> -315
Sat 5/9		1007 Hunt wins by 5 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +1200
11:59PM		1008 Not Hunt by 5 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4"> -2600
Sat 5/9		1009 Miocic wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4"> -125
11:59PM		1010 Not Miocic inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4"> -115
Sat 5/9		1011 Miocic wins by 5 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +350
11:59PM		1012 Not Miocic by 5 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -530
Sat 5/9		1013 Hunt / Miocic draw		<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4"> +12000
11:59PM		1014 Fight not a draw		<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4"> -36000

[Domestic]

Guys, curious to get your thoughts on the Alex Chambers/Kailin Curren fight. The under is tempting considering that Alex's last 5 fights have finished in round 1. Three of Curran's last four fights have gone to decision and Curran is the favorite. Any insight?

[Unwritten Law]

Looking over the card again, I like Jake Matthews to win. Kid has good wrestling and will be a huge lightweight by fight night. Two finishes in his first UFC fights. Now looking to see who I can pair him in a parlay with.

[GR33D]

i really like the hunt o 1.5. i think they will pace themselfs and feel each other out the first round.
each to their own i guess

[JIBBBY]

Mark Hunt quote on fighting Stipe and his game plan going in... Lulz.....

"Fighting's simple, man: If I can rock this guy, if I can put a lot more hits on this guy than he puts on me, then I've won," Hunt said. "My game plan is simple all the time: If I can whoop your ass before you whoop my ass, then you're done. That's basically it. I'm not trying to be arrogant. That's just the way things work."

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2454227-ufc-hw-mark-hunt-on-stipe-miocic-humble-beginnings-and-a-golden-future

[JIBBBY]

Guys, curious to get your thoughts on the Alex Chambers/Kailin Curren fight. The under is tempting considering that Alex's last 5 fights have finished in round 1. Three of Curran's last four fights have gone to decision and Curran is the favorite. Any insight?

Most of the MMA heads are on the favorite in Kailin Curran and that includes myself..

Copy and paste from CP -

It was really easy to be impressed by the aggressiveness and skill of Curran in her debut against Paige VanZant. A minor step down in competition for Curran should end up being enough to get her into the win column and allow her to save her roster spot. Chambers may not be so lucky. If she does lose, as I’m predicting, it seems likely she’ll end up on the chopping block.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I personally won't touch the O/U round bet in this match up Domestic.. Like you said though Chambers have been finishing or getting finished in the first rounds of her fights. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex-Chambers-65649

Flip side Curran has been dragging out her fights to decisions.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kailin-Curran-62703

I always like to bet the overs with the small chicks at the elite levels because it's typically hard for them to finish.. This fight I'm not so convinced that theory applies because of Chambers record of 1st round finishes.. I'm personally just throwing Kailin Curran to win in a parlay play at the 2-1 odds...

[Shagdogy]

Hey gents - "new" here... last posted in 2011. After Jones crushed Shogun I asked "who is going to beat this guy?" I guess he answered that for us...

Anyway, been throwing some wagers around lately. Stopped by to see what people thought of Curran/Chambers. With Curran being the up and comer with the full backing of the UFC's marketing team, it seems she's being groomed to be another face for women's MMA. She fights aggressively and is smooth and confident on the feet. Doesnt seem to respect subs though and gets caught in many attempts, even though she defends decently. Check out her fight with Kaiyana Rain for example. Granted that was her first pro fight I think.

Anyway, anyone here think Chambers can take down and sub Curran? I'm considering a pretty big play on Curran but thought I'd get some opinions.

[getlucky2win]

yep curran should win. and hunt by ko

[JIBBBY]

These are all my most solid prop plays so far after carefully considering each of these fights if anyone is interested in taking a look..

Got them in various 2 and 3 teamers and in this one 8 teamer for small to win 10x your money.... I do think most of these will hit if not all of them and that's why I posted it up...

Pending	8 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/9/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -460* <small>vs</small> Hunt / Miocic goes 5 round distance
				Pending	5/9/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1103 Tavares / Whittaker goes 3 round dist -135* <small>vs</small> Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Pending	5/9/15 11:30pm Props Fighting 1208 Not Perosh by 3 round decision -530* <small>vs</small> Perosh wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1312 Not Vick by 3 round decision -350* <small>vs</small> Vick wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 10:30pm Props Fighting 1412 Not Hooker by 3 round decision -530* <small>vs</small> Hooker wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1508 Not Noke by 3 round decision -277* <small>vs</small> Noke wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 9:30pm Props Fighting 1612 Not Alvey by 3 round decision -380* <small>vs</small> Alvey wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1703 Rawlings / Ellis goes 3 round distance -145* <small>vs</small> Fight won't go 3 round distance

Anyone else have any prop ideas that are more likely to land then not with decent value??? Love to ponder over a few more before fight time....

[JIBBBY]

The ITD bet in the Hunt/Stipe fight is now down to -350..

Pending5/9/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -350* <small>vs</small> Hunt / Miocic goes 5 round distance

Unlike distance betting with the smaller fighters I'm a firm believer that most HW fights end before the final bell especially in the 5 rounders.. I'm willing to bet on it even at -350 straight going into this one...

[mirinquads]

Check out Ben Nguyens last fight against Reese on youtube. Very good takedown defense, and he's fighting a wrestler going in here. A wrestler that has been KO'ed before, and Nguyen has some solid power.

[UncleChael]

All in Stipe ITD. Brad Tavares too big for Whittaker.

[Domestic]

Thanks for the thoughts jibby.

[opinionator]

first post. short time lurker.

i got a few small bets running ... ML on webb @ -115, hunt @ +156, kelly @ +232

plus webb on points @ +230 and whitaker on points @ +320.

kinda wish i'd just waited for the KO prop with hunt and maybe skipped the ML on webb.

[JIBBBY]

Thanks for the thoughts jibby.

No prob Dom and good luck with this card play..

Weigh ins coming up later on in the day... http://www.mmamania.com/2015/5/8/856...-australia-mma

[JIBBBY]

Check out Ben Nguyens last fight against Reese on youtube. Very good takedown defense, and he's fighting a wrestler going in here. A wrestler that has been KO'ed before, and Nguyen has some solid power.

I took a close look at this fight a week ago Miri.. I just didn't feel comfortable betting on Ben Nguyen because the guy hasn't fought anyone yet, mostly all cans he beat in lessor organizations..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ben-Nguyen-8183

Alp has been at the UFC level for 3 fights now, has represented reasonably well in all of them even though he lost 2 of the 3.... Hard to bet against the wrestler at the UFC level anyways is what I'm trying to say.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alptekin-Ozkilic-73826

This fight is a pass for me.. Good luck Miri with Ben if you decide to play him as he just might be able to defend the take downs and then get the KO at some point perhaps!!!

Decent payout anyways -

<small>UFC Fight Night 65 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Adelaide Entertainment Centre - Adelaide, South Australia - UFC TV</small>
Sat 5/9		2101 Ben Nguyen		<input id="radiox" value="M1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">+165	<input id="radiox" value="L1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -200
7:00PM		2102 Alp Ozkilic		<input id="radiox" value="M2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">-190	<input id="radiox" value="L2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +170

[Killer_Demo]

Looked through the card. Only play for me is Stipe vs Hunt Over 1 1/2 -187

I see both of these guys gassing towards middle/late rounds

[JIBBBY]

Hunt KO prop came out (+250).... Was thinking it would be a little higher in value to be honest.. Although, this is really the only logical pathway to victory for Hunt IMO so I guess it makes sense... Better then playing Hunt straight at (+190) now I suppose.....

Mark Hunt has never had a submission win or won a 5 round decision fight in his MMA career so I don't see that changing at age 41 in this fight.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

Sat 5/9		1037 Hunt wins by TKO/KO		<input id="radiox" value="M1_35" name="radiox" type="radio">+250
11:59PM		1038 Any other result		<input id="radiox" value="M2_35" name="radiox" type="radio">-350

Flip side - like UncleChael mentioned Stipe wins ITD in an above post - (-121).... Much better value then the Miocic -230 straight win bet...

Sat 5/9		1009 Miocic wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_21" name="radiox" type="radio">-121
11:59PM		1010 Not Miocic inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_21" name="radiox" type="radio">-119

Could hedge both plays above accordingly against each other which will then pay out better then the "fight won't go the distance prop at -350".. Just sharing thoughts and ideas fellas....

Bloodyelbow predictions!!!! Fraser Coffeen prediction of the Hunt/Stipe fight I don't like.. ..http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/5/8/...nd-predictions

[JIBBBY]

Watched weigh ins.. All I can say is Mark Hunt has man titties.. Rampage would make fun of the double D's fooo sures. .

Focker is fat but carrying around all that fat weight comes strength and punching power but little gas tank...

Let's see how it goes down!!! Mark Hunt will hold around a 30 pound weight advantage in the cage come fight time is my best guess anyways......http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/u...c-in-adelaide/

Actually excited to see this main event tomorrow....

[PaperTrail07]

Whit has trouble w power....he got hester but was close...Tavares SHOULD be too much for him but if whit wins....Ill be very impressed...play has to be tavares

[JIBBBY]

Gonna try these 3 props to close out the betting..

Props Fighting 1607 Kelly wins by 3 round decision +493* (Sam Alvey is very hard to finish and this fight could very well go to the cards, Kelly is undefeated and has never been stopped before also)

Props Fighting 1331 Vick wins by submission +1092* (Vick does have 3 submission wins on his record, it's a long shot so you never know? At +1100 odds I had to give it a go for a 10 spot)

And

1221 O'Connell wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_73" size="4"> +400 - O'connell 8 KO wins, Perosh 5 early round KO losses...

[tebowned]

Gonna try these 3 props to close out the betting..

Props Fighting 1607 Kelly wins by 3 round decision +493* (Sam Alvey is very hard to finish and this fight could very well go to the cards, Kelly is undefeated and has never been stopped before also)

Props Fighting 1331 Vick wins by submission +1092* (Vick does have 3 submission wins on his record, it's a long shot so you never know? At +1100 odds I had to give it a go for a 10 spot)

And

1221 O'Connell wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_73" size="4"> +400 - O'connell 8 KO wins, Perosh 5 early round KO losses...

Hit Vick wins by submission recently but like the two props listed as well. BOL everybody.
I actually have a med-large bet on Alvey.

[nanderson1134]

Miocic works hunt tonight

[shabang]

These are all my most solid prop plays so far after carefully considering each of these fights if anyone is interested in taking a look..

Got them in various 2 and 3 teamers and in this one 8 teamer for small to win 10x your money.... I do think most of these will hit if not all of them and that's why I posted it up... now that I think about it..I think the main event is 50/50 on whether or not it will go to a decision so I'm not feeling to confident about the pick below -- a good prop would be miocic by dec

Pending	8 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/9/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -460* <small>vs</small> Hunt / Miocic goes 5 round distance
				Pending	5/9/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1103 Tavares / Whittaker goes 3 round dist -135* <small>vs</small> Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Pending	5/9/15 11:30pm Props Fighting 1208 Not Perosh by 3 round decision -530* <small>vs</small> Perosh wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1312 Not Vick by 3 round decision -350* <small>vs</small> Vick wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 10:30pm Props Fighting 1412 Not Hooker by 3 round decision -530* <small>vs</small> Hooker wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1508 Not Noke by 3 round decision -277* <small>vs</small> Noke wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 9:30pm Props Fighting 1612 Not Alvey by 3 round decision -380* <small>vs</small> Alvey wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1703 Rawlings / Ellis goes 3 round distance -145* <small>vs</small> Fight won't go 3 round distance

Anyone else have any prop ideas that are more likely to land then not with decent value??? Love to ponder over a few more before fight time....

think i'll tail for fun.. thanks for posting - added some a changed some around ..

Pending	5/9/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -290* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Hunt / Miocic goes 5 round distance
				Pending	5/9/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1135 Tavares / Whittaker starts round 3 -202* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Fight won't start round 3
				Pending	5/9/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1312 Not Vick by 3 round decision -350* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Vick wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 10:30pm Props Fighting 1412 Not Hooker by 3 round decision -610* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Hooker wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1508 Not Noke by 3 round decision -299* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Noke wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 9:30pm Props Fighting 1612 Not Alvey by 3 round decision -286* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Alvey wins by 3 round decision
				Pending	5/9/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1735 Rawlings / Ellis starts round 3 -197* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Fight won't start round 3
				Pending	5/9/15 8:00pm Props Fighting 1937 Chambers / Curran starts round 2 -388* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Fight won't start round 2
				Pending	5/9/15 7:30pm Props Fighting 2037 Grujic / O'Reilly starts round 2 -332* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Fight won't start round 2
				Pending	5/9/15 7:00pm Props Fighting 2137 Nguyen / Ozkilic starts round 2 -502* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Fight won't start round 2

[JIBBBY]

^^^Sure Shabang I just hope they all hit and I can represent with an 8-10 parlay for once on this forum.. I'm overdue......

Shabang the "Not Alvey by decision prop" is the only one that makes me a little nervous. Becareful with that one as this fight could go to decision where either fighter could get the win in my mind.. We will see how that one prop plays out.. I bet on Kelly to win straight so I had to stick to my guns... Also took this prop as mentioned in above post.. 1607 Kelly wins by 3 round decision +493*

My thinking in a nut shell going into this one -

Kelly is undefeated at 9-0, seems durable and has 2 decision wins on his record..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daniel-Kelly-49516

Sam Alvey is durable but has been to decision 7 times and lost 5 of them.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sam-Alvey-35410

Conclusion - Kelly by decision perhaps.....

[UncleChael]

Anybody notice O'Connell play Rock' Paper' Scissors' with Perosh and beat him at the Weigh in? lol.

[UncleChael]

Why are people betting against Alex Chambers? I guess I'll find out in a few hours.

[shabang]

^^^Sure Shabang I just hope they all hit and I can represent with an 8-10 parlay for once on this forum.. I'm overdue......

Shabang the "Not Alvey by decision prop" is the only one that makes me a little nervous. Becareful with that one as this fight could go to decision where either fighter could get the win in my mind.. We will see how that one prop plays out.. I bet on Kelly to win straight so I had to stick to my guns... Also took this prop as mentioned in above post.. 1607 Kelly wins by 3 round decision +493*

My thinking in a nut shell going into this one -

Kelly is undefeated at 9-0, seems durable and has 2 decision wins on his record..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daniel-Kelly-49516

Sam Alvey is durable but has been to decision 7 times and lost 5 of them.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sam-Alvey-35410

Conclusion - Kelly by decision perhaps.....

can't stand kelly..dude is flat as penetrate on his feet..alvey should light him up

[JIBBBY]

Anybody notice O'Connell play Rock' Paper' Scissors' with Perosh and beat him at the Weigh in? lol.

I missed that but I did notice the 42 year old Perosh with the glass jaw whom is gonna be in the cage against a decent striker in O'connell in a few hours.. . Reported Perosh has been battling a flu bug leading up as well..

O'connell whom should come out guns a blazing in this one does have real KO power as 50% of his wins have come by KO.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Perosh-9491

O'connel by KO could be the call.

[JIBBBY]

can't stand kelly..dude is flat as penetrate on his feet..alvey should light him up

Agreed but Alvey isn't much different or lighter on his feet.. Kelly is 9-0 though and finding ways to win without getting lit up... We shall see Shabang....

[shabang]

Why are people betting against Alex Chambers? I guess I'll find out in a few hours.

probably because she's almost 40 and on the decline..curran is the better fighter..alex has a lot of heart..going with curran..they both need this win regardless

[JIBBBY]

This is a late start tonight being that this event is in Australia!!

I'm almost drunk and ready to go.. LET'S GET THIS CARD FELLAS!! GL to all as it's almost game time!!!

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-adelaide-australia-2015#/fight

[fitguy67]

first bout (Nguyen-Ozkilic) scheduled to have started 36 minutes ago by my account...

can anyone report on where the card is now, time wise...

(I'm still getting a "please wait" slide on the vip-box stream)

[shabang]

first bout (Nguyen-Ozkilic) scheduled to have started 36 minutes ago by my account...

can anyone report on where the card is now, time wise...

no, hasn't started yet..4:45 pacific / 7:45 eastern (it's in austrailia don't forget, which is why it's starting later)

[mirinquads]

Tried to tell ya.