Musoke....value here?

TheCalculator · 06-21-14, 09:03 PM

Kevin is very, VERY good. But I like Musoke here. It all comes down to stopping the takedowns. If he can stop the takedowns for 2 out of 3 rounds -- he has an excellent chance of winning.

Wilbo86 · 06-21-14, 09:12 PM

I wouldn't be so sure about winning if he can stop the take downs, KGs boxing was looking very good against Story, and Musoke has some chin issues. Been rocked badly in both his fights so far but seems to recover well.

I think KG will win it, but the value is definately on Musoke at the current price, I'll be playing him by decision/submission.

PaperTrail07 · 06-21-14, 09:33 PM

Agee it comes down to avoiding the takedown....His ground D and submissions are good too and he is slippery enough to get up....His footwork is solid ....just think +300 is up there... KG -384.....just no way ......interesting matchup and I think Nico might surprise some people here...he is well rounded and knows what too expect ...maybe Its just me but I feel this guy has a lot of potential and may even tko KG....

PaperTrail07 · 06-21-14, 09:35 PM

If he Cant stop the takedown...it will be a long 3 rounds...

TheCalculator · 06-22-14, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by Wilbo86

Musoke has some chin issues. Been rocked badly in both his fights so far but seems to recover well.

A lot of people bring up "the chin". Andrade is an absolute savage. One of the hardest hitters and Sakara is a beast also. I don't see Kevin ending this one with a TKO.

fitguy67 · 06-22-14, 01:44 PM

who else you like pt...

baseball dogs in the range +135-200 historically hit higher than their prices imply...

i'm getting the feeling that the same thing could be true of ufc-dogs in the range from 200-400...and auto-playing them small (i like "to win" a set $-amount) is money over time...

and is a hell of a lot more enjoyable way to watch a card...
surprises are wins, and you only need a small % of 'em to throw a party...
with big faves...surprises are losses...and only ONE can have you contemplating

:

PaperTrail07 · 06-22-14, 02:03 PM

I also like Oliveria -190....I think he will end around -250--275....Other than that I think Hester is worth putting a few dollars on.... I feel it is the same way with MMA....it just has the random factor tossed in there..."better" fighter can lose on any given night.....LOL exactly the last one I remember was bunch of people auto tossing in CHANDLER over BROOKS last bellator card...lol -1100 ....lotta value there smhlol

Wilbo86 · 06-22-14, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

who else you like pt...

baseball dogs in the range +135-200 historically hit higher than their prices imply...

i'm getting the feeling that the same thing could be true of ufc-dogs in the range from 200-400...and auto-playing them small (i like "to win" a set $-amount) is money over time...

and is a hell of a lot more enjoyable way to watch a card...
surprises are wins, and you only need a small % of 'em to throw a party...
with big faves...surprises are losses...and only ONE can have you contemplating

:

I make most of my money on mispriced moderate dogs. Feel like its a macro trend, the betting public buys into the general consensus and hype on favourites and over bets them.

TheCalculator · 06-22-14, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by Wilbo86

I make most of my money on mispriced moderate dogs. Feel like its a macro trend, the betting public buys into the general consensus and hype on favourites and over bets them.

This seems to be very accurate come fight day. Most favorites get bet on heavily and I think it's mainly muppets looking for "an easy win".

Wilbo86 · 06-22-14, 03:29 PM

Yeah I think human psychology plays a big part, your average punter prefers the gratification of cashing more tickets in the short/more often, even if its a losing strategy long term. Not to mention bad gamblers are myopic, and will tend to bet on very limited information. "I'm more familiar with that guy, he should win" I know I'm guilty of that occasionally. That's why MMA lines can be so lucrative, there isn't any other sport so based on hyperbole, spin and hype.

fitguy67 · 06-22-14, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

who else you like pt...

baseball dogs in the range +135-200 historically hit higher than their prices imply...

i'm getting the feeling that the same thing could be true of ufc-dogs in the range from 200-400...and auto-playing them small (i like "to win" a set $-amount) is money over time...

and is a hell of a lot more enjoyable way to watch a card...
surprises are wins, and you only need a small % of 'em to throw a party...
with big faves...surprises are losses...and only ONE can have you contemplating

:

decided to run with this myself

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/2909033-auto-play-fixed-target-all-ufc-dogs-200-400-starts-jun28.html#post22115463

Wilbo86 · 06-22-14, 04:31 PM

I agree that the dogs a more likely to be miss priced but I don't know if a strategy based on a blanket rule is going to work. You still need to pick your spots. Still interested to see how it goes.

Jim_Gunn · 06-22-14, 06:14 PM

Kelvin is for real and rapidly improving but I wouldn't lay almost 4 to 1 juice on him even in a parlay. I think Musoke is undervalued here at these lines. I put a small play on Musoke at +312 and Musoke by decision at +560.

gabe · 06-22-14, 06:17 PM

Gastelum 30-27

PaperTrail07 · 06-23-14, 01:56 PM

you never get 30-27 1 guy simply wont like the wrestling lol

gabe · 06-23-14, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

you never get 30-27 1 guy simply wont like the wrestling lol

k, then 30-27, 30-27, 29-28

PaperTrail07 · 06-24-14, 11:41 AM

guess we will find out...

rosietop · 06-28-14, 10:12 AM

coming from a guy who picked him to win TUF the TV Show and against Uriah Hall as a huge underdog.

Gastelum is getting massively overrated here, he barely scrapped by Rick Story of all people! What makes people think he is going to fight for the belt anytime soon? The kid still has a few more years to mature..

And not to mention that Musoke has won both of his recent fights as the underdog!

Ultimatly I think Kelvin picks up a competitive unanimous decision but I dont see any value at all in his ml.

PaperTrail07 · 06-28-14, 10:24 AM

Agree. He is -400. No thanks. Do work musoke !

PaperTrail07 · 06-28-14, 11:42 PM

Boooo feel like I had a good shot

PaperTrail07 · 06-28-14, 11:43 PM

29/28 where is the ****** judge when I need it penetrate.

PaperTrail07 · 06-29-14, 09:05 AM

Nice call Rosie. Pretty. Much on point there

shabang · 06-29-14, 05:11 PM

kelvin is good and only getting better...I think I"ll ride him to the top..or until I know for sure he'll have trouble ..last night was a breeze

TheCalculator · 06-29-14, 06:19 PM

I still think there was a bit of value on that play after watching the fight. First round indicated that he could of beat Kelvin. That being said I think you got hurt from the body kick early in the second round and never recovered. He was injured and just couldn't get his game plan together.

PaperTrail07 · 06-30-14, 09:47 AM

hardly.....he lost the 1st round lol...

Originally posted by shabang

kelvin is good and only getting better...I think I"ll ride him to the top..or until I know for sure he'll have trouble ..last night was a breeze