UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Nelson (April 11, 2014)

[yisman]

late money on nelson

Line has actually come down a little, so the late money can't be on Nelson.

Last 25 minutes, line went from -165 to -155

04/11/14 03:32:56pm	+140	-155
04/11/14 03:30:46pm	+141	-156
04/11/14 03:27:00pm	+144	-160
04/11/14 03:14:50pm	+145	-161
04/11/14 03:14:39pm	+146	-162
04/11/14 02:50:15pm	+149	-165
04/11/14 02:39:14pm	+148	-164
04/11/14 02:38:06pm	+147	-163
04/11/14 02:25:12pm	+148	-164
04/11/14 02:20:21pm	+149	-165
04/11/14 02:20:00pm	+146	-162
04/11/14 01:31:52pm	+144	-160

[MD]

Nogueira sub +1150. Played the shit out of that.

[Dwil125]

Nelson in round 1 + 350 and i played his -3.5 line for some reason instead of just playing him straight.. Wish there was live betting for this one.

[PaperTrail07]

wow NICE

Nogueira sub +1150. Played the shit out of that.

[MD]

Pounding Nog. Hopefully Nelson doesn't follow my lead.

[MD]

Nelson in round 1 + 350 and i played his -3.5 line for some reason instead of just playing him straight.. Wish there was live betting for this one.

I played the +350, too. And the under. Nelson rarely wins if this goes over 1.5.

[TheCalculator]

Pounding Nog. Hopefully Nelson doesn't follow my lead.

We're a united front here. Together we win or together we fall.

[Dwil125]

Nogueira sub +1150. Played the shit out of that.

I'm gonna hedge with this at +900. Nelson looks super annoyed in the heat already. I agree if it goes over that's really bad for nelson.

[yisman]

I bet Big Nog about a week ago and bet him again before the fight. Also took him via decision at +340

[MD]

We're a united front here. Together we win or together we fall.

I'm pretty confident. He's a little too smart to just walk into that right hand... or so I'm hoping.

Nogueira should be -150ish I think.

[PaperTrail07]

NELSON HOLY SHIT

[Dwil125]

It's almost 90 in there, Idk about Nog by decision.

[PaperTrail07]

Nog dosent have the power to KO nelson....and Nelson knows it now.......

[MD]

Has the fight started? Live lines just moved to Nelson -350, Nog +250.

[PaperTrail07]

3 mins in this thing is about over

[PaperTrail07]

HOLY penetrate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[yisman]

what a terrible first round

he wasn't even defending himself at the end

guess he was done already

[PaperTrail07]

HOLY SHIT--DID I JUST SEE THAT

[Vaughany]

Horrible to watch, like watching an old grandad in there,

[yisman]

late money was definitely on Big Nog, not that it's worth much now.

Pinnacle closed at Nelson -139

04/11/14 03:41:52pm	+126	-139
04/11/14 03:41:42pm	+129	-142
04/11/14 03:40:40pm	+131	-145
04/11/14 03:39:34pm	+135	-149
04/11/14 03:39:24pm	+137	-152
04/11/14 03:32:56pm	+140	-155
04/11/14 03:30:46pm	+141	-156
04/11/14 03:27:00pm	+144	-160

[sweepem]

RIP Nogueira.

[Thor4140]

Nog got this, V. Go all in.

u almost talk me out of betting Nelson but i just didn't see it. Just curious why u thought big nog would win? He did look in terrific shape i give him that but he was as slow as usual.

[Vaughany]

what a terrible first round

he wasn't even defending himself at the end

guess he was done already

Corner should of thrown towel in, was painful to watch

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

NELSON.... what an athlete

[Dwil125]

You guys are way ahead in your stream.

[JIBBBY]

The Haymaker landed.. 1st round like I thought.. Big Nog was rocked that entire fight then put to sleep... Poor Nog....

[Skel]

Nelson in round 1 + 350 and i played his -3.5 line for some reason instead of just playing him straight.. Wish there was live betting for this one.

[Vaughany]

Thougght tht was gonna be first death in octagon

[MD]

u almost talk me out of betting Nelson but i just didn't see it. Just curious why u thought big nog would win? He did look in terrific shape i give him that but he was as slow as usual.

I wasn't being serious with that comment, but I did think Nog should be the favourite. I figured that if he made it out of R1, he'd easily take over in the later rounds. Just didn't make it out of R1; it happens, I accounted for it, thought it happened 35% of the time-ish. No idea how accurate that number is, though. Nog's chin looked good, but there's really only so many Roy Nelson shots you can eat.

[TheCalculator]

I wasn't being serious with that comment, but I did think Nog should be the favourite. I figured that if he made it out of R1, he'd easily take over in the later rounds. Just didn't make it out of R1; it happens, I accounted for it, thought it happened 35% of the time-ish. No idea how accurate that number is, though. Nog's chin looked good, but there's really only so many Roy Nelson shots you can eat.

I had the same analysis: Nelson round 1 or Nog win.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree----needs to retire but who are we to tell him to quit lol

Horrible to watch, like watching an old grandad in there,

[PaperTrail07]

Id hate to see Nog get hurt long term by getting in over his head in the future...

[latarianmilton]

woooooo. congrats all nelson backers
glad i went big on nelson. -125 was just too delicious

[Thor4140]

I wasn't being serious with that comment, but I did think Nog should be the favourite. I figured that if he made it out of R1, he'd easily take over in the later rounds. Just didn't make it out of R1; it happens, I accounted for it, thought it happened 35% of the time-ish. No idea how accurate that number is, though. Nog's chin looked good, but there's really only so many Roy Nelson shots you can eat.

[Skel]

Beneil Dariush @ -160 4.8 units to win 3 units
Guida by decision @ +155 3 units to win 4.65 units
Laflare by decision @ -125 4 units to win 3.2 units
Nogueira by decision @ +465 1 unit to win 4.65 units
Guida/Kawajiri O2.5 + Nelson/Nogueira O1.5 3 units to win 4.04 units
Howard/Laflare O2.5 + Omielanczuk/Rosholt O1.5 2 units to win 2.07 units
Guida/Kawajiri O2.5 + Bisping/Kennedy O4.5 3 units to win 3.95 units
Howard @ +365 0.5 units to win 1.8 units

+0.62 units for the card.