UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson (September 21, 2013)

**Kermit** · 09-22-13, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by wagerjunkie

man. you just keep burying yourself.

You need to get over the fact that your +600 dog didn't hit and quit crying.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-22-13, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by Kermit

Depending on the severity of their injury. If a guy has a broken leg that needs attention, he isn't going to be at the press conference.

u honestly think he broke his leg from kicking him in the head?????

**Imsmarterthanu** · 09-22-13, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by Kermit

A glancing blow can still knock people out. You guys must be complete noobs to fighting. I've seen people get knocked out from getting slapped.

what are we even talking about ? are we talking about glancing blows here is this really the point here

?

no it's not the point is the judging is pathetic and if it was the right call we wouldn't be here complaining about it, look around everyone is thinking the fight wasn't anywhere what the judges said it was

so penetrate the judges

MD · 09-22-13, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by Kermit

Depending on the severity of their injury. If a guy has a broken leg that needs attention, he isn't going to be at the press conference.

Isn't that exactly what I just said? You said that the majority of fighters go to the hospital, which is a ridiculous claim to make. Clearly.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-22-13, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by Kermit

You need to get over the fact that your +600 dog didn't hit and quit crying.

lol I've said repeatdly i had no money on this fight.

**Kermit** · 09-22-13, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by wagerjunkie

kicking him to the head so much? dude half of them hit with his toes and the other half got checked. he landed maybe 1 flush to the head

Properly checking a kick doesn't make your head snap to the other side.

I suggest you rewatch the fight.

**Kermit** · 09-22-13, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by MD

Isn't that exactly what I just said? You said that the majority of fighters go to the hospital, which is a ridiculous claim to make. Clearly.

I meant majority of fighters with significant injuries. I guess that I should have worded it better.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-22-13, 12:56 AM

i think it Dana just saying that Jones had to plead with the Doctor to not stop the fight going into 5th tells us everything we need to know.

I mean really come on.

yeah, Jones landed more heavy damage in smaller flurries but that doesn't win you fights(well aparently tonight it did). like SBR Lou said, Gust consistently peppered Jones round after round. constantly tagging him.

**Kermit** · 09-22-13, 12:56 AM

Actually I said the majority of the fighters depending on their injuries.

**Kermit** · 09-22-13, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by wagerjunkie

i think it Dana just saying that Jones had to plead with the Doctor to not stop the fight going into 5th tells us everything we need to know.

I mean really come on.

yeah, Jones landed more heavy damage in smaller flurries but that doesn't win you fights. like SBR Lou said, Gust consistently peppered Jones round after round. constantly tagging him.

That cut happened in the first freaking round from a punch that grazed Jones(which is how most cuts happen).

Where are all of the other cuts from round 2 through 5 if Gus was peppering Jones so bad?

MD · 09-22-13, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by Kermit

Actually I said the majority of the fighters depending on their injuries.

Exactly! You said "the majority of fighters". Are you claiming you actually meant not the majority of fighters?

**Kermit** · 09-22-13, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by MD

Exactly! You said "the majority of fighters". Are you claiming you actually meant not the majority of fighters?

I mean ALL of the fighters depending on their injuries. If an injury needs immediate attention, they are not going to be at the post fight press conference.

**Das Jax** · 09-22-13, 01:01 AM

I had the fight 1st round Gustafsson, 2nd round even, and the last three rounds Jones. Having said that, it was an amazing fight and I'm definitely looking forward to the inevitable rematch. Having said that, I'm bummed because I lost 4 units betting on won't start Rnd 5 and Jones ITD.

**Das Jax** · 09-22-13, 01:07 AM

Hah, Wineland eating a piece of pizza at the press conference. Can't really blame the guy... surprised we don't see that more often given the crazy weight cuts.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-22-13, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by Kermit

That cut happened in the first freaking round from a punch that grazed Jones(which is how most cuts happen).

Where are all of the other cuts from round 2 through 5 if Gus was peppering Jones so bad?

dude! BOTH his eyes and his lips were swollen! do you honestly think he would have to plead with the doctor to not have the fight stopped going into the 5th from a cut in the first round!

stop being so hard headed!..

I am not even quite sure what we are arguing about I have agreed with you that yes Gus was hurt several times and closed to getting put out but I believe he was way more active in striking the entire fight and that should have gotten him the victory and you yourself said you wouldn't have a problem if he won, so what exactly are we arguing about?

**Kermit** · 09-22-13, 01:14 AM

It was because of blood going into his eye causing sight problems. That was the issue.

By the way Gus went to the Hospital for a concussion.

I think we are arguing over a round that could have gone either way.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-22-13, 01:15 AM

**wagerjunkie** · 09-22-13, 01:16 AM

**Kermit** · 09-22-13, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by wagerjunkie

Exactly. The placement of the cut was the issue.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-22-13, 01:19 AM

**wagerjunkie** · 09-22-13, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by Kermit

Exactly. The placement of the cut was the issue.

right.

but he is still swollen under the eye from shots. lip swollen and other eye is a bit swollen as well, which comes from consistent striking from opponent.

o well. fights over. we are beating a dead horse. it was a great fight. awesome fight. I am sure we can agree on that!

**Kermit** · 09-22-13, 01:24 AM

Yeah. It was a great fight.

IMO, if Gus doesn't get hit with that Elbow/Tricep in the 4th, he goes on to win the fight.

He wasn't right after that.

**Thor4140** · 09-22-13, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by Kermit

I think you guys are scoring the fight based off of your hatred for Jones. You don't automatically lose a point because people don't like you.

I don't like the guy much either and really wanted to see Gus win, but it is what it is.

Exactly what i was thinking. People are dying to see him lose so they wont give him one close round

**Thor4140** · 09-22-13, 01:29 AM

Somebody needs to get Wineland a film of Gus/Jones match and see what heart is all about. To get clipped slightly and turtle up in a championship fight is a disgrace. Ya needed a lead pipe to get either Jones or Gus out of there. Wineland was embarrassing. Unbelievable

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 09-22-13, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by wagerjunkie

The Doctor wanted the fight stopped in between rounds 4 and 5. Big John & Jones' corner men talked him out of it! LOL, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! Break out the cheese to go with all the whine that is about to come..............

MD · 09-22-13, 01:40 AM

Originally posted by Das Jax

I had the fight 1st round Gustafsson, 2nd round even, and the last three rounds Jones. Having said that, it was an amazing fight and I'm definitely looking forward to the inevitable rematch. Having said that, I'm bummed because I lost 4 units betting on won't start Rnd 5 and Jones ITD.

No argument for Jones taking R3 IMO. Gus dominated it.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-22-13, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

The Doctor wanted the fight stopped in between rounds 4 and 5. Big John & Jones' corner men talked him out of it! LOL, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! Break out the cheese to go with all the whine that is about to come..............

no one is whining bro.

congrats on your 10$ you won laying that -900

**Noleafclover** · 09-22-13, 03:14 AM

It's just odd some of you seem to think the face tells the story. If that's the case Gustaffson won 50-44, but some peoples' faces get busted up more than others.

**Noleafclover** · 09-22-13, 03:40 AM

So... was away most of the night as you may be able to tell by the flurry of posts in the past hour as I come back and try to catch up w what ya'll been up to....

First.. penetrate Mitrione... penetrating oversized baby crawling to get out the playpen against the Brabo choke. Seriously bitch needs to learn some jiu jitsu or possibly what the word means. Still think over 1.5 -135 was te right side as far as we could know.

Second... pride cometh for me tonight. Kinda lazy-capped Kimura (and sorta the whole card) and went with the crowd. The upshot for me is that I only lost 1.19 units, so hopefully I go at it harder next card.

Third... KK. Luca Fury. I'll admit some curiosity - what did you have Jones decision capped at? (too lazy to go find it if you posted) What I almost posted before the fights was - is it better to have 1.5 units at +605 than 3 units at +500? Of course depends on your approximation of the true odds, but an interesting question I think, no?

**Noleafclover** · 09-22-13, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

Last 3 months my documented bets are 66-47 (59%) for +41.5 units and a fantastic return on investment of 18%.

ALL DOCUMENTED.

Find me someone with better stats (spoiler alert: you won't). Until then, the losers on here who bash me out of jealousy better keep my name out of their mouths.

There are some cool people on here, but way more trolls.

On another note, I'll leave this here for editing purposes once I'm sober and feel like doing a housekeeping. Goal is to tone down your "I'm the shit" comments. Feel free to check natesbets.wordpress.com and do the math on september, my ROI is definitely better than 18% (use filters: housekeeping/mma to keep it just to this shit). If you doubt these bets were posted in advance, feel free to check my post history, or scroll through the past 3 months events threads and the "just locked these in: post your picks thread." I'll do some housekeeping later (probably after NFL tomorrow), but I bet 3.33% per unit (I generally feel larger bets on a smaller number of propositions is better), and was at one point close to the 33.3% threshold where I'll be upping the bet size and resizing the bankroll. Things went sour tonight, but still above 18%.

Edit: started MMA three months ago, early July. As in never betting before. So don't think you're the shit.

**Luca Fury** · 09-22-13, 04:27 AM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

On another note, I'll leave this here for editing purposes once I'm sober and feel like doing a housekeeping. Goal is to tone down your "I'm the shit" comments. Feel free to check natesbets.wordpress.com and do the math on september, my ROI is definitely better than 18% (use filters: housekeeping/mma to keep it just to this shit). If you doubt these bets were posted in advance, feel free to check my post history, or scroll through the past 3 months events threads and the "just locked these in: post your picks thread." I'll do some housekeeping later (probably after NFL tomorrow), but I bet 3.33% per unit (I generally feel larger bets on a smaller number of propositions is better), and was at one point close to the 33.3% threshold where I'll be upping the bet size and resizing the bankroll. Things went sour tonight, but still above 18%.

Edit: started MMA three months ago, early July. As in never betting before. So don't think you're the shit.

Nice results, but that's only 1 month. For September alone my ROI is higher than 18% too. Much higher. In fact, it's 66%. You can go verify that yourself if you don't believe me. Risked 27.55 units and made 18.12 units.

And so what if you claim to have started MMA in July? That actually hurts your cause. I've been giving out winning bets for almost 3 years now, AKA long term. You winning in the short term for just a 1 month doesn't mean you will win longterm. After over 2 years of giving winners for free, I started selling and have kept right on pace still winning big -- I'm proven.

**Luca Fury** · 09-22-13, 04:36 AM

BTW, for that guy saying my bet service is "overpriced," I just did the math. Based on the results since we launched and the cost of the service, the minimum unit size required to profit on it would be only $16 ($15 to break even). That's AFTER subtracted the price of the service per event.

If you're trying to tell me $16 per unit is way too much to bet, you must be a penny bettor. $16 is nothing. So I'd say the service is under-priced if anything.

**Noleafclover** · 09-22-13, 04:58 AM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

Nice results, but that's only 1 month. For September alone my ROI is higher than 18% too. Much higher. In fact, it's 66%. You can go verify that yourself if you don't believe me. Risked 27.55 units and made 18.12 units.

And so what if you claim to have started MMA in July? That actually hurts your cause. I've been giving out winning bets for almost 3 years now, AKA long term. You winning in the short term for just a 1 month doesn't mean you will win longterm. After over 2 years of giving winners for free, I started selling and have kept right on pace still winning big -- I'm proven.

3 months.

Here's a quote from you re: this next part (sorry dunno how to quote in quote) --- Last 3 months my documented bets are 66-47 (59%) for +41.5 units and a fantastic return on investment of 18%.

Now you say Septemeber alone is higher than 18%? Which is it. Can't be assed to check before I hear something consistent from you.

Also, I'm calculating ROI based on bankroll, not on amount risked. If we want to get some sort of measuring stick, we need to standardize. Edit: And honestly, I'd really love to hear why people would ever calculate ROI based on units risked, instead of money set aside to be bet on something. In no other field of investing would this be the case, but I'm willing to hear why people do things that way because it just strikes me as penetrating odd. If your money is sitting there in a bankroll to be risked, that. is. your. investment. No?

I don't think it hurts my cause that I'm doing well while new to the game. If I have room to improve, I think a strong start speaks well. Sure, it could just be variance, but have you met my 2 years of NFL results? I don't think it's variance.

Look, I've got nothing against you, you're just a little big for your britches here.

Edit: I honestly won't be surprised if when it comes down to it, you out-ROI me, me being this new to the game (still somewhat curious though). But you act as if you are doing better than everyone anywhere, and I'd be surprised if this is the case, even for this board. You'll never hear results from Nunya, but just from what little he's posted of his plays, I'm surprised if he's not doing better. I'm sure there are others who could keep pace - MD springs to mind. I don't think the majority of SBR posters perform well, but to say absolutely you're doing the best is just arrogant.

**Noleafclover** · 09-22-13, 05:20 AM

Also, actually think my earlier question re: your true odds on the Jones decision was the more interesting one, because I do respect you... it's just not as antagonistic of a question, but obliged if you'd answer.

**Luca Fury** · 09-22-13, 05:33 AM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

3 months.

Here's a quote from you re: this next part (sorry dunno how to quote in quote) --- Last 3 months my documented bets are 66-47 (59%) for +41.5 units and a fantastic return on investment of 18%.

Now you say Septemeber alone is higher than 18%? Which is it. Can't be assed to check before I hear something consistent from you.

Are you serious?

Last 3 months combined, ROI is 18%

In September alone, ROI is 66%.

What about that is is inconsistent? Those are ROI stats for 2 separate periods, which is why they're different. What is so hard to understand about that?

Originally posted by Noleafclover

Also, I'm calculating ROI based on bankroll, not on amount risked. If we want to get some sort of measuring stick, we need to standardize. Edit: And honestly, I'd really love to hear why people would ever calculate ROI based on units risked, instead of money set aside to be bet on something.

So 18% ROI to you means you increased your bankroll by 18%? LOL, that's not what ROI is. ROI is profit made divided by the required number of units risked to make that (the investment). For example, if you risk 10 units and make 1 unit in profit, you're ROI is 10%.

You're bragging about your ROI while also discrediting mine when you don't even know what ROI is.

If we're going by your method (% increase in bankroll) then my "ROI" is much higher than 18% over the last 3 months. It's closer to 100% (nearly doubled it on MMA alone). If you only increased your bankroll 18% over the last 3 months and have been betting most cards, your ROI is WAY lower than 18%.

ROI (real ROI not your random, incorrect way of doing it) is the most important gambling stat. Really, it's the only one that matters. It gives by far the truest representation of a gamblers skill. Pros aim for 10% longterm and I've been hitting over 20% going back to last September when I started tracking my own ROI.

Despite those great numbers for the last year, I only count the last 3 months because that's when I started tracking my ROI publicly with detailed bet-by-bet documentation. I could just be pulling the over 20% ROI claim out of my ass since I don't have the detailed documetnation to back it up, so I don't usually mention it and instead just stick to what's been documented, which is 18% over the last 3 months.

Originally posted by Noleafclover

I honestly won't be surprised if when it comes down to it, you out-ROI me, me being this new to the game (still somewhat curious though). But you act as if you are doing better than everyone anywhere, and I'd be surprised if this is the case, even for this board. You'll never hear results from Nunya, but just from what little he's posted of his plays, I'm surprised if he's not doing better. I'm sure there are others who could keep pace - MD springs to mind. I don't think the majority of SBR posters perform well, but to say absolutely you're doing the best is just arrogant.

The other guys on here who claim to win have no documented record at all. Someone saying "I'm up ___ units and win __%" doesn't mean anything. I can sit here and claim I'm up 1 billion units and hit 99%, doesn't prove anything. Most don't say they win but the ones who do have no track record.

One guy claimed his thread was up massive, even though he didn't track the bets. Just to prove him wrong, I went back and added up his results. I proved the dude got BURIED and then he admitted he lied. That's pretty much the story of this forum.

What I have is a documented, bet-by-bet trackrecord including units risked/won/lost and ROI. The only bets included in that are the ones I give out publicly BEFORE the fights take place as well as their exact unit size -- full transparency.

I have repeatedly challenged people to post a documented trackrecord that is better than mine but no has. Even if they can find someone who sells MMA beets or gives them out for free on Twitter or another site would count, it doesn't have to be someone on SBR.

As of yet, no one chase disproven me. So until they do, my claim that my results on MMA are better than anyone else's stands.