This might honestly be my favourite straight bet on this card. Kennedy should be closer -300 at least. Lots of value here in my opinion.
Kennedy's fight IQ and his ability to dictate a freakishly high pace for a middleweight should give him a huge edge over Gracie. Gracie's cardio is lackluster, especially compared to a guy with Kennedy's conditioning, who can go five rounds without slowing down. On the ground, Kennedy is extremely good, he was able to take down Jacare and control him without Jacare being able to do much, but obviously Roger has the edge. Kennedy's takedown defence has always been superb, and even in his last fight, he was taken down repeatedly by a guy in Trevor Smith who had similar height and reach edges to Gracie, but who was physically stronger than Gracie and a better wrestler. Despite that, Kennedy was impossible to hold down and immediately returned to his feet. Hell, he stuffed all three of Jacare's takedowns, and Jacare is far more athletic and powerful than Roger. He'll have a big striking edge and his pace should tire Roger very quickly.
The only worry I have about this fight is Roger's high output of jabs. While he's a technically awful striker, his huge reach affords him the opportunity to make mistakes unpunished. Throwing a lot of weak, powerless jabs against a guy like Kennedy shouldn't work, but with MMA judges, who knows. Roger's volume could be enough to steal a decision if Kennedy is complacent.
Given how many advantages Kennedy has, and how tight the line is, I think this is a good spot for a big play. Kennedy is exactly the kind of fighter I like to bet on; he's intelligent, he's got a great camp (Jackson's), and he's got the perfect skillset to neutralize Gracie if he chooses to. He's also a bull and should have a big strength edge.
Kennedy's fight IQ and his ability to dictate a freakishly high pace for a middleweight should give him a huge edge over Gracie. Gracie's cardio is lackluster, especially compared to a guy with Kennedy's conditioning, who can go five rounds without slowing down. On the ground, Kennedy is extremely good, he was able to take down Jacare and control him without Jacare being able to do much, but obviously Roger has the edge. Kennedy's takedown defence has always been superb, and even in his last fight, he was taken down repeatedly by a guy in Trevor Smith who had similar height and reach edges to Gracie, but who was physically stronger than Gracie and a better wrestler. Despite that, Kennedy was impossible to hold down and immediately returned to his feet. Hell, he stuffed all three of Jacare's takedowns, and Jacare is far more athletic and powerful than Roger. He'll have a big striking edge and his pace should tire Roger very quickly.
The only worry I have about this fight is Roger's high output of jabs. While he's a technically awful striker, his huge reach affords him the opportunity to make mistakes unpunished. Throwing a lot of weak, powerless jabs against a guy like Kennedy shouldn't work, but with MMA judges, who knows. Roger's volume could be enough to steal a decision if Kennedy is complacent.
Given how many advantages Kennedy has, and how tight the line is, I think this is a good spot for a big play. Kennedy is exactly the kind of fighter I like to bet on; he's intelligent, he's got a great camp (Jackson's), and he's got the perfect skillset to neutralize Gracie if he chooses to. He's also a bull and should have a big strength edge.
