Is capping your job?

**Sacrelicious** · 06-06-13, 12:22 AM

I started with a grand last summer, it is significantly higher, I have made some bad bets as of recently though, and starting off was rocky. If you read my thread you will notice a significant chance from losing to winning over a matter of months.

This shit is not too hard, you just need to have a brain.

This is the only subforum on this whole site with intelligent people on it.

MD · 06-06-13, 12:28 AM

I was pro, but I lost my whole bankroll on a UFC card a couple of months ago, so I retired.

I put all of it on Elkins as a flier, and after he got knocked out, I tried to explain to 5Dimes what a flier was, and they closed my account. Didn't even return my money.

I was in shock. It's like they didn't even realize that they couldn't legally keep my money.

**DSSCA** · 06-06-13, 12:35 AM

I agree Sac, MMA probably has the largest margins. I see a ton of great insight here. I guess if you want to take it seriously vs. Recreational, you need BR mgmt. Or do you favor 1/4 Kelly to be successful? I feel like if 1,000 is your starting roll, you could double it in 2-3 events. If that continues, in a year you could be doing pretty well... Wgt would be the Ideal starting roll? I've always thought $10k could do some damage for real.

**eligibletackle** · 06-06-13, 12:43 AM

none of the above posters feed their sig o/kids by betting on MMA

trust me i've read their posts

MD · 06-06-13, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by DSSCA

I agree Sac, MMA probably has the largest margins. I see a ton of great insight here. I guess if you want to take it seriously vs. Recreational, you need BR mgmt. Or do you favor 1/4 Kelly to be successful? I feel like if 1,000 is your starting roll, you could double it in 2-3 events. If that continues, in a year you could be doing pretty well... Wgt would be the Ideal starting roll? I've always thought $10k could do some damage for real.

Probably somewhere around the $100000000 mark. That said, I doubt anyone cares about their starting roll, most people just care about their ending roll.

MD · 06-06-13, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by eligibletackle

none of the above posters feed their sig o/kids by betting on MMA

trust me i've read their posts

None of us claimed to.

And you are square.

**DSSCA** · 06-06-13, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by MD

Probably somewhere around the $100000000 mark. That said, I doubt anyone cares about their starting roll, most people just care about their ending roll.

I agree that the end result is what matters. I was more so saying that if you started with $100 it may be much tougher and take longer to make big money (relative to what you feel big money is) than if you had $10k. You could effectively make a couple thousand much faster. Just adding zeros.

**eligibletackle** · 06-06-13, 12:54 AM

not like i care - but what makes me a square MD? My posts here are few and far between but I do believe I call them as I see them - you'd have to pay me (alot) to buy MMA picks off you

MD · 06-06-13, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by eligibletackle

not like i care - but what makes me a square MD? My posts here are few and far between but I do believe I call them as I see them - you'd have to pay me (alot) to buy MMA picks off you

Yes, my MMA picks are clearly awful, which is why people go into my thread or PM me and ask me for advice all the time. It is also why every play I've ever recommended to anyone on this forum has cashed.

Also, you're a square because you use square logic. You wouldn't understand it because if you did, you wouldn't be a square.

**Sacrelicious** · 06-06-13, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by eligibletackle

not like i care - but what makes me a square MD? My posts here are few and far between but I do believe I call them as I see them - you'd have to pay me (alot) to buy MMA picks off you

I do not know you, nor have I had any interaction with you.

But fundamentally, the basis for a square is in right angles, it is rather simple geometry.

**Sacrelicious** · 06-06-13, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by MD

Yes, my MMA picks are clearly awful, which is why people go into my thread or PM me and ask me for advice all the time. It is also why every play I've ever recommended to anyone on this forum has cashed.

Also, you're a square because you use square logic. You wouldn't understand it because if you did, you wouldn't be a square.

Realistically your picks are the best on this subfoorum, it is downright uncanny.

MD · 06-06-13, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Realistically your picks are the best on this subfoorum, it is downright uncanny.

There's a secret to it that I'm not willing to divulge at this point.

I'll give you a hint, though - it's in the meaning of the word "flier". You'll notice I win 100% of my plays, but yet some of my fliers lose. The secret is in that.

**Sacrelicious** · 06-06-13, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by MD

There's a secret to it that I'm not willing to divulge at this point.

I'll give you a hint, though - it's in the meaning of the word "flier". You'll notice I win 100% of my plays, but yet some of my fliers lose. The secret is in that.

I think it has more to do with the fact that any intelligent person can win at this game.

I am very new and have made some serious and fundamental errors.

Has more to do with bet sizing then it actually has to do with capping so far, I'm up a ton this year, though last weekend was BRUTAL.

I think it is more of a matter of self discipline then anything.

**Sacrelicious** · 06-06-13, 01:23 AM

Also, as for the bit about being intelligent,

I assume most sports bettors are idiots, that is what creates an edge in the line.

MD · 06-06-13, 01:37 AM

When you've got guys like Mr. Tackle up there, who legitimately believe that Werdum out-struck Roy Nelson not because he's clearly a better striker, but because he had a "size advantage", it's not hard to find edges in sports betting.

**DSSCA** · 06-06-13, 01:37 AM

Sac, when you started with $1k, what was your bankroll % you wagered?

**Sacrelicious** · 06-06-13, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by DSSCA

Sac, when you started with $1k, what was your bankroll % you wagered?

Technically, by the whole "BET ONE PERCENT" philosophy, very high, and many errors were made in the process. After several months of losing money I noticed that value was value, and bets should be sized accordingly. I no longer think a 10-15% bankroll bet on an extremely bad line where your edge is high is a bad idea at all.

That being said, right now, I usually bet 3-5%, unless I see something totally bizarre, where 10%ish is totally logical.

**DSSCA** · 06-06-13, 01:46 AM

Right on, thank you. I see why in the long run, limits and BR mgmt can be effective, but I agree that value is value! I appreciate your input.

MD · 06-06-13, 01:51 AM

I put 40% of my bankroll on Weidman to beat Munoz. Those were the days.

MD · 06-06-13, 01:54 AM

Also, 25% on Weidman to beat Maia at -115.

**DSSCA** · 06-06-13, 02:02 AM

Originally posted by MD

Also, 25% on Weidman to beat Maia at -115.

How do you see Weidman/Silva ending?

**The iron sheik** · 06-06-13, 02:49 AM

no but jobbing my cab is

hahehehehehehiehiihhuhoohohohhhuhuhuuuuu h!!!!

**DSSCA** · 06-06-13, 03:06 AM

Cool man...

**Kenny Penetrate** · 06-06-13, 03:32 AM

MD, you put your entire bankroll on Darren Elkins to beat Chad Mendes? When you tried to explain to 5Dimes what a flier was, what did you say exactly?....i don't have much idea about that term either

**goodfellas433** · 06-06-13, 03:53 AM

Thank you for that post.....funny/witty/demeaning replies in 3....2......1........lol

MD · 06-06-13, 05:14 AM

Originally posted by DSSCA

How do you see Weidman/Silva ending?

I'm not entirely sure. I know I think the line is off, and I know it's a close fight, but I'm not sure who I give the advantage to. Either way, I think whoever wins will probably dominate from bell to bell. Anderson has very good TDD, but Weidman is an entirely different animal, and he's huge.

Originally posted by Kenny Penetrate

MD, you put your entire bankroll on Darren Elkins to beat Chad Mendes? When you tried to explain to 5Dimes what a flier was, what did you say exactly?....i don't have much idea about that term either

I was making an in-joke. I was big on Mendes, actually.

**Grabaka** · 06-06-13, 05:22 AM

Originally posted by MD

I was making an in-joke. I was big on Mendes, actually.

Should have said before....i tailed with my moms jewelry on Elkins....Shit!

**goodfellas433** · 06-06-13, 06:22 AM

He's lucky the mean people aren't awake yet

**Grabaka** · 06-06-13, 06:26 AM

Originally posted by goodfellas433

He's lucky the mean people aren't awake yet

lol

**PunisherIND** · 06-06-13, 06:32 AM

Originally posted by goodfellas433

He's lucky the mean people aren't awake yet

hehe

**PunisherIND** · 06-06-13, 07:05 AM

Originally posted by DSSCA

I am aware that VERY FEW cappers do it as there single source of income. I have noticed there is an impressive amount of knowledge on this forum (MMA specifically) however, and am curious how many members are actually pros? How many hours a day do you cap? What's was your initial bankroll? I know a lot of you guys claim big things, but how many actually bet $1,000 a fight? To be honest, I lay a couple hundred here and there, but to bet 1k on the reg... noway I could afford that. I'd be off a ledge if I lost $10k in a night. I stay within my means and bet 2-5% of my roll. Just curious if you do lay those numbers, how long did it take to get there?

the only pros on here are nunya, gabe, and gigaouts (collectively referred to as "nunya's posse"). its not just a hobby for those guys, its a skill.

**Crassus** · 06-06-13, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by MD

Yes, my MMA picks are clearly awful, which is why people go into my thread or PM me and ask me for advice all the time. It is also why every play I've ever recommended to anyone on this forum has cashed.

Also, you're a square because you use square logic. You wouldn't understand it because if you did, you wouldn't be a square.

Gabe-esque. Beautiful.

**varkolek** · 06-06-13, 08:13 AM

I don't read twitter so don't know his record, but Ilmatic bets large amounts and seems to know a lot of theory.

When I started posting there were some capping competitions, and Kaladarus won at least 2 consecutive comps by a wide margin. Winning one comp isn't a big deal, but winning 2 or multiple is significant. Kaladarus also seems to know more theory than some of the more vocal members of the forum. I never thought the picks themselves were that remarkable, which makes me think the amount you bet is more important than capping in itself.

Capping isn't that difficult, but making a few bad choices is probably the difference between having an edge and wiping out your profit. It's easy in retrospect to see you should or shouldn't have placed a certain bet. I figure it takes experience to learn from the patterns of when you win or lose.

Also, dww123 used to post, and had won a 55k parlay and bet large amounts, at times 10k plus, on what were often heavy favourites.

I don't know about this subforum, but on the forum as a whole most people wouldn't be pros or probably not even winning gamblers.

I pretty much stopped gambling for a couple of months last year, but picked up again this year. I've had moderate success but am pretty far from quitting the day job.

**Beelzebubzy** · 06-06-13, 08:24 AM

Is grabaka a pro? Not in that this is his full time income but does he stand on the corner pro?