Christ Like Boxing, MMA & UFC Betting

[gabe]

I've eaten there a couple times. It's pretty good, but at this point I'd take the Cosmopolitan buffet over it. Bone marrow FTW.

Just for the bone marrow? I was recommended to try the bone marrow at STK @ Venetian

[NunyaBidness]

I'm not familiar with those machines. Also, I only play hold 'em. =/

You should try the Sterling Brunch at Bally's. It's $90 +tax a person, and totally worth it. Sundays only, 9am-2pm. They have great caviar, sushi, lobster tails, etc. Best part is the tasty, chilled bottomless champagne. Def the best buffet I have ever been to, and will be part of my future Vegas trips.

I've eaten there a couple times. It's pretty good, but at this point I'd take the Cosmopolitan buffet over it. Bone marrow FTW.

[Jesus Christ]

Hey JC if I may ask, where are you finding that prop? 5d?

Yup 5Dimes.

[Sacrelicious]

Hey JC if I may ask, where are you finding that prop? 5d?

[gabe]

BTW- I am 5 for 5 with Superbowl bets. Hope to go 6 for 6.

[gabe]

I will be in Costa Rica during the superbowl. If you want to meet me at the casino in San Jose, I'll be there.

Most of the rooms you mention only run holdem and smaller limits. I am a non-holdem specialist. Usually play at Bellagio (although I hate it there), Caesars, Aria, or the Rio during the WSOP.

Last year I was grinding these heads up holdem machines they have everywhere. Beat them for a decent hourly rate, but not a large enough sample to convince myself I was actually winning versus them. The fact that they are mostly unmanned indicates they are probably not beatable by very much, but I did enjoy the challenge.

I'm not familiar with those machines. Also, I only play hold 'em. =/

You should try the Sterling Brunch at Bally's. It's $90 +tax a person, and totally worth it. Sundays only, 9am-2pm. They have great caviar, sushi, lobster tails, etc. Best part is the tasty, chilled bottomless champagne. Def the best buffet I have ever been to, and will be part of my future Vegas trips.

[gabe]

MD is pretty much right on here.

I always think of Asimov's Foundation trilogy as a good thought experiment for it.

Baseball is beaten by a calculator only. It is the most solved sport due to the number of games and availability of statistics. That is why matchbook can have baseball prices of Team A +102, Team B -103. The information is that good.

It's rare for two fighters to ever fight twice, and the number of total fights in their career is almost meaningless from a statistical standpoint. Since so many fighters fight so differently than each other, data like Fighter A does poorly against left-handed strikers doesn't mean as much as how a pitcher does against left handed hitters.

Baseball is the hardest sport to beat. MMA is definitely one of the easier ones.

You really should tail me. I told you this during the last NFL season, which I killed in, including picking Giants to win Superbowl at +2500 as soon as the season ended. Been killin' this year, too.

[KushMoney]

goes to decision is -180, seems like a steal

Definitely. Over 3.5 Should be -400 Over 4.5 -320

[NunyaBidness]

Make it Superbowl weekend. Where are your fav rooms in Vegas? I was told it's easy money over at Flamingo. I've only ever won big at Mirage. Have lost at Planet Hollywood. Haven't spent much time at the tables in Vegas, usually stick to sportsbook and slots.

I will be in Costa Rica during the superbowl. If you want to meet me at the casino in San Jose, I'll be there.

Most of the rooms you mention only run holdem and smaller limits. I am a non-holdem specialist. Usually play at Bellagio (although I hate it there), Caesars, Aria, or the Rio during the WSOP.

Last year I was grinding these heads up holdem machines they have everywhere. Beat them for a decent hourly rate, but not a large enough sample to convince myself I was actually winning versus them. The fact that they are mostly unmanned indicates they are probably not beatable by very much, but I did enjoy the challenge.

[KushMoney]

That play is gonna hit!

Final Scores will be: 49-46 Henderson, 48-47 Diaz, 48-47 Henderson - I Fukkin Guarantee you this!!!

Diaz wins by point spread 144.5-144

I'll throw it into a parlay or 2 @ -130 odds, adds value anywhere...


goodluck!

[NunyaBidness]

MD is pretty much right on here.

I always think of Asimov's Foundation trilogy as a good thought experiment for it.

Baseball is beaten by a calculator only. It is the most solved sport due to the number of games and availability of statistics. That is why matchbook can have baseball prices of Team A +102, Team B -103. The information is that good.

It's rare for two fighters to ever fight twice, and the number of total fights in their career is almost meaningless from a statistical standpoint. Since so many fighters fight so differently than each other, data like Fighter A does poorly against left-handed strikers doesn't mean as much as how a pitcher does against left handed hitters.

Baseball is the hardest sport to beat. MMA is definitely one of the easier ones.

[gabe]

Sounds good, see you in June.

Make it Superbowl weekend. Where are your fav rooms in Vegas? I was told it's easy money over at Flamingo. I've only ever won big at Mirage. Have lost at Planet Hollywood. Haven't spent much time at the tables in Vegas, usually stick to sportsbook and slots.

[NunyaBidness]

Nun, meet me at a poker table in vegas. i wanna take u for all you've got.

Sounds good, see you in June.

[BIGDAY]

Will be waitin with ya on Brown.

Hope to get great odds close to fight time.

[Jesus Christ]

One I'm keeping an eye out for is Brown/Swick...I like Brown even at the current odds but I still think I can get a better price +140ish so I'm waiting it out

[Jesus Christ]

I just don't see Bendo blowing Diaz out of the water....finish, 50-45, 49-46 etc..

I expect Diaz to compete in this one...he can win a decision..maybe even get a finish...at worst I see a 3-2 unanimous for Bendo which still pays...I'm either gonna double up on this prop or play one of Diaz to win..still undecided

[DirtyX]

The variables are different between the two sports. The constant playing is one of the reasons why the variance is lower in baseball; you generally know what you're getting. If you've seen the players quite recently, it gives you a better idea about how they're going to perform. An MMA fighter takes 3+ months between fights generally; often a lot longer. So much can change about both fighters in these times.

Baseball is indeed one of the most strategic sports. It can be quite difficult to handicap, and statistics are pretty much king when it comes to forming opinions. A degree in probability & statistics is probably more useful than intuition when it comes to baseball (semi-serious).

No problemo, happy to help.

Very good points. Thanks again.

[MD]

Maybe I am just a noob and I am misunderstanding this. Not gonna lie. My point is I believe baseball has too many variables "People" or "external factors" such as weather that one must consider before making a play.

With MMA, it's two guys inside a cage, with one goal, which is to stop the other or to win the decision. I think having to account for 18 people on a field, and how they are all feeling on any given night, night after night, is completely different than MMA, with two people, for 15 or 25 minutes. Also, baseball teams play almost every other day, for months on end, whereas fighters fight twice, maybe three times a year. In MMA, you have two guys who have been doing nothing but training for months for this one night. It's apples and oranges imo.

In baseball, A-Rod and Jeter going 0-5 can change a game, just like if Holiday can't throw strikes and the opposing team hammers him in the first inning, this significantly changes the game.

For me, studying and researching MMA seems much easier, requiring less research and time to be relatively accurate. Match ups, (example - Wrestler vs Boxer or BJJ vs Muai Thai) make the fights, and seeking out these fights is how I have been successful betting MMA, well somewhat successful. I did ok in 2012, nothing special, but I am ahead for the year. I assume the same could be said for any sport, NFL, NBA, etc. However, I believe Baseball to be the most intrecate and the most strategic sport of all, thus making it unfavorable for me betting wise, but that's just my opinion. I would rather have to account for two people instead of 18 people, but I do understand what you are saying and it makes sense.

Thanks for the reply, and schooling me. I really do appreciate it, seriously..

The variables are different between the two sports. The constant playing is one of the reasons why the variance is lower in baseball; you generally know what you're getting. If you've seen the players quite recently, it gives you a better idea about how they're going to perform. An MMA fighter takes 3+ months between fights generally; often a lot longer. So much can change about both fighters in these times.

Baseball is indeed one of the most strategic sports. It can be quite difficult to handicap, and statistics are pretty much king when it comes to forming opinions. A degree in probability & statistics is probably more useful than intuition when it comes to baseball (semi-serious).

No problemo, happy to help.

[PunisherIND]

Uncle nunya phd will come in soon and enlighten us

throws up the bat symbol

On advice of counsel, Nunya only responds to a ricebowl symbol ever since he received the cease and desist from bruce wayne.

We believe wannabet blew the whistle.

[Beelzebubzy]

Uncle nunya phd will come in soon and enlighten us

throws up the bat symbol

[DirtyX]

Your logic is faulty. I think you're also gravely misunderstanding the concept of variance. How can you say that baseball is higher variance because nine people have the ability to make an error and change the course of the game, versus MMA, which only has one? If there are nine players, each with their own capacity to perform mistakes, and to have good/bad days, then a mistake or a bad day from one doesn't have as large an impact on the game as a mistake or a bad day from an MMA fighter. There are obviously exceptions; sometimes all nine players can play near-perfectly in a very close, competitive game, and one mistake can lose the game for either team, but the truth is, the likelihood that one mistake from one player cost the entire team the game is extremely low. You see to be assuming that if a game is tied 4-4 in the final inning and one player makes a mistake, giving up a run, then that player cost the team the game. The reality is, every mistake that every player made collectively cost the team the game, in addition to their inferiority to the other team. If the losing team hadn't given up that run in the fourth, they wouldn't have lost, either. Let's assume for the following example that your goal is to invest your money with the least variance possible: if I wagered you $900 on the results of a fair coin flip, and I gave you the opportunity to flip the coin nine times and distribute the money pool in $200 increments based on the results, you would rather flip the coin just once?

There's a reason that baseball is considered the lowest-variance sport, and it's because it's considered a true statistician's sport. Numbers and figures take priority over instinct, and the biggest winners are incredibly studious, and vigilant in their strategies.

Maybe I am just a noob and I am misunderstanding this. Not gonna lie. My point is I believe baseball has too many variables "People" or "external factors" such as weather that one must consider before making a play.

With MMA, it's two guys inside a cage, with one goal, which is to stop the other or to win the decision. I think having to account for 18 people on a field, and how they are all feeling on any given night, night after night, is completely different than MMA, with two people, for 15 or 25 minutes. Also, baseball teams play almost every other day, for months on end, whereas fighters fight twice, maybe three times a year. In MMA, you have two guys who have been doing nothing but training for months for this one night. It's apples and oranges imo.

In baseball, A-Rod and Jeter going 0-5 can change a game, just like if Holiday can't throw strikes and the opposing team hammers him in the first inning, this significantly changes the game.

For me, studying and researching MMA seems much easier, requiring less research and time to be relatively accurate. Match ups, (example - Wrestler vs Boxer or BJJ vs Muai Thai) make the fights, and seeking out these fights is how I have been successful betting MMA, well somewhat successful. I did ok in 2012, nothing special, but I am ahead for the year. I assume the same could be said for any sport, NFL, NBA, etc. However, I believe Baseball to be the most intrecate and the most strategic sport of all, thus making it unfavorable for me betting wise, but that's just my opinion. I would rather have to account for two people instead of 18 people, but I do understand what you are saying and it makes sense.

Thanks for the reply, and schooling me. I really do appreciate it, seriously..

[Vaughany]

lol

[PunisherIND]

So you're saying that "variance" does not mean "variables"?

Next your going to tell me robbie lawler isnt tom lawlors older brother.

[MD]

I disagree. In Baseball, you have nine players on the field, each of whom have the ability to make an error and change the outcome of the game. In MMA you have two people who can really control what the outcome of the fight may be... Well, minus the ref and the judges. Has there been some bad judging? sure.. But most of the time, they get it correct. I have lost money on some stoppages due to cuts and DQ's also. Other than that I don't know how you can say MLB has the lowest variance and MMA the highest...?

In baseball, you have to worry about weather, your bullpen, offense, defense, who is injured and who isn't, etc.. The whole team needs to align and work together correctly in order to work. Kinda like a well oiled automobile. If anyone of those listed above has a bad night, the outcome of the game becomes completely different. I personally feel more confident in MMA myself. I understand there is random shit in MMA also that happens all the time. But in some fights, if I feel a fighter will follow through on a smart game plan, and execute what I think he needs to win, it's money. These fights do not come up very often, but to give you a few examples:

Larkin vs Lawler - Strikeforce

Barao vs Faber - UFC

Alistar vs Lesnar - UFC

Jones vs Shogun - UFC

Anyways, I think those fights were gifts for the odds offered at the time.

Your logic is faulty. I think you're also gravely misunderstanding the concept of variance. How can you say that baseball is higher variance because nine people have the ability to make an error and change the course of the game, versus MMA, which only has one? If there are nine players, each with their own capacity to perform mistakes, and to have good/bad days, then a mistake or a bad day from one doesn't have as large an impact on the game as a mistake or a bad day from an MMA fighter. There are obviously exceptions; sometimes all nine players can play near-perfectly in a very close, competitive game, and one mistake can lose the game for either team, but the truth is, the likelihood that one mistake from one player cost the entire team the game is extremely low. You see to be assuming that if a game is tied 4-4 in the final inning and one player makes a mistake, giving up a run, then that player cost the team the game. The reality is, every mistake that every player made collectively cost the team the game, in addition to their inferiority to the other team. If the losing team hadn't given up that run in the fourth, they wouldn't have lost, either. Let's assume for the following example that your goal is to invest your money with the least variance possible: if I wagered you $900 on the results of a fair coin flip, and I gave you the opportunity to flip the coin nine times and distribute the money pool in $200 increments based on the results, you would rather flip the coin just once?

There's a reason that baseball is considered the lowest-variance sport, and it's because it's considered a true statistician's sport. Numbers and figures take priority over instinct, and the biggest winners are incredibly studious, and vigilant in their strategies.

[PunisherIND]

This bet means that diaz needs to win 3 rounds or more on the judges score cards?

bj, the points handicap, in this case diaz +3.5, means the bet wins in the following situations:

1) diaz wins inside distance
2) diaz wins by decision
3) diaz loses by decision, by 3 total rounds or less when you combine all 3 judges scorecards (e.g., if he loses 48-47, 48-47, 48-47 the bet still wins)

[bjpenn85]

didnt see this obviously.

[bjpenn85]

i think frankie edgar dropped him in their first fight. The angle was very awkward and i remember the preview in the rematch had a clip of that incident as well.

[Vaughany]

Henderson tends to get dropped then likes to make out like he slipped or something... Done it a couple of times, like against Edgar he grabbed his foot as if he slipped! Crafty devil

[bogbat]

^^ that's probably the only way it could happen, a knock down submission chain.

[bogbat]

Got dropped by Edgar and Jim MIller. Shane Roller dropped him early in their fight as well

lol just remembered Guida dropped him too and attempted a follow up guillotine.

[Vaughany]

Its extremely hard picturing Nate being stopped, but could Nate stop Bendo somehow? Bendo appears almost un-submittable, and I am having trouble recalling when he was knocked down other than when he was on the butt end of the famous showtime kick.

Got dropped by Edgar and Jim MIller. Shane Roller dropped him early in their fight as well

[bogbat]

Its extremely hard picturing Nate being stopped, but could Nate stop Bendo somehow? Bendo appears almost un-submittable, and I am having trouble recalling when he was knocked down other than when he was on the butt end of the famous showtime kick.

[Vaughany]

goes to decision is -180, seems like a steal

yeeah seems too eassy tho!

[Vaughany]

I don't see either fighter finishing one another, I hope the over 4.5 line isn't -300

-180 on sportbet/5dimes

[bjpenn85]

This bet means that diaz needs to win 3 rounds or more on the judges score cards?