Miami Marlins SP Ricky Nolasco is in Trouble Saturday Night

[Jeff Grant]

I didn't find it surprising that the Los Angeles Dodgers opened up as solid road favorites against the Miami Marlins when I started handicapping this game on Saturday morning - but now I believe they should be even higher:

• Marlins SP Ricky Nolasco has a 5.36 career ERA in August, his highest of any month
• Nolasco's shortest-ever start came with umpire Mark Carlson behind home plate, giving up nine earned runs in a 14-3 home loss to the San Diego Padres on 7/20/11 (1.1 IP, 9 ER)
• Nolasco is 0-2 with a 7.33 ERA in four career starts versus the Dodgers
• Dodgers SP Joe Blanton's 14-6 with a 2.78 ERA in 36 career August starts, quite a contrast from Nolasco
• Blanton has limited Jose Reyes to a .194 average in 31 career at-bats against him, been one of the hottest hitters in baseball
• Nolasco is in terrible form, suffering through a career-long, five-game losing streak (7.16 ERA)

As long as the usual suspects are in the Dodgers lineup - this is a green-light situation to back a team that's played it's best baseball on Saturdays this year (14-4 record)

[JMon]

yep, already on them..for other reasons...gl Jeff

[Jeff Grant]

yep, already on them..for other reasons...gl Jeff

Would like to know those reasons - may add a unit

[Vesuvius]

Carlos Lee is going deep tonight with a double

[Asauce24]

What are your pics for today !!i see u do a good job handicapping can u post who your gonna take

[JMon]

Would like to know those reasons - may add a unit

Over the course of Ricky's career, the Marlins have really never fared well at home when starting Ricky against winning teams....15-24 SU to be exact. Further, since the 2011 season the Marlins are 4-12 SU (0-5 this year) when starting Ricky at home against a winning team. Additionally a specific situation that I have followed over the years is simply fading the Marlins starting Ricky at home, after losing as a road dog in his last start (team record). This goes back to Aug of 2008, if you get some time research it, you will be pleasantly surprised! Good track record for over too!

The Dodgers have been a good team to bet on the second half of the season when facing poor power teams, specifically those that average less than .9 home runs a game. They are 12-2 SU (7-0 on the road) since July of this year.

[a4u2fear]

lets get em Jeff.

[briedward]

I tailed for $500. Thank you Jeff if we win :-D

[Jeff Grant]

Never seen an MLB team win that leaves the bases juiced in the first two innings

[bigant78]

This is incredible. Nolasco should have been gone by now. this game should not be close

[5teamparlay]

Not in trouble today...

NoNo into the third...