DShaffe's 2H MLB Plays

[dshaffe4]

Alright, going to try and log my MLB plays for the second half of the season.

Good luck to everyone!

Sunday 7/15/2012

Play #1

Braves (-104) 1x

Play #2

Rays (-114) 1x

Play #3

Twins (-117) 1x

[dshaffe4]

Alright, going to try and log my MLB plays for the second half of the season.

Good luck to everyone!

Sunday 7/15/2012

Play #1

Braves (-104) 1x

Play #2

Rays (-114) 1x

Play #3

Twins (-117) 1x

Play #4

Cardinals (-102) 1x

[dshaffe4]

Updated Record

1-3 (-2.33x)

Bad play with the lousy Twins and a tough loss with the late night game. Onto Monday's card!

[dshaffe4]

Monday 7/16/2012

Play #1

Reds (-1RL) 1x

Play #2

Tigers (-125) 1x

Play #3

Pirates (+105) 1x


Good luck everyone!

[dshaffe4]

Monday 7/16/2012

Play #1

Reds (-1RL) 1x

Play #2

Tigers (-125) 1x

Play #3

Pirates (+105) 1x


Good luck everyone!

Play #4

RedSox (-136) 1x

Late post I know, but my power just came back on

[dshaffe4]

Updated Record

3-5 (-2.73x)

Onto Tuesday!

[dshaffe4]

Tuesday 7/17/12

Play #1

Braves -1RL (-155) 2x

Really like my Bravos here with Jair rounding back into form. Giants are hitting a poor .207 averaging only 2.21 runs over the last 5 against righties. While the Braves are hitting .303 averaging 6.44 against lefties over the last 5. I feel this is a good spot to take them on the -1RL for 2x. Good luck!

[dshaffe4]

Tuesday 7/17/12

Play #1

Braves -1RL (-155) 2x

Really like my Bravos here with Jair rounding back into form. Giants are hitting a poor .207 averaging only 2.21 runs over the last 5 against righties. While the Braves are hitting .303 averaging 6.44 against lefties over the last 5. I feel this is a good spot to take them on the -1RL for 2x. Good luck!

Play #2

Marlins (-117) 1x

Marlins are looking for a better 2nd half of the season and they have the better pitcher in this matchup

Play #3

NYY TT over 5 (-125) 1x

Definitely see some value in this play with the way the Yankees are swinging the bat right now against lefties. I expect the Yanks to rough up Brett Cecil tonight, and then rough up their pen, which has underperformed in the last few games.

[dshaffe4]

Tuesdays Recap

2-1 (0x)

Updated Record

5-6 (-2.73x)

[dshaffe4]

Wednesday 7/18/12

Play #1

Pirates (-120) 2x

The Pirates have the far superior pitcher in this matchup.

Play #2

Phillies (EV) 2x

This looks like an even matchup up on paper, but Cliff Lee has the better advanced stats against Kershaw. Lee has always pitched well against LA while Kershaw is the exact opposite. With LA still searching for offense I expect the Phillies to take this game.

Play #3

Astros/Padres under 6.5 (+105) 1x

Good pitching versus horrid offenses in Petco park, spells an under.

Good Luck!

[dshaffe4]

Wednesday's Recap

1-2 (-1x)

Updated Record

6-8 (-3.73x)

Just an absolute brutal loss in the Phillies game that turns a 3x winning day that would have gotten us back into the green, instead results in a 1x loss. Big play tomorrow that will hopefully recoup these losses.

[dshaffe4]

Thursday 7/19/12

Play #1

Rays -1RL (-175) 5x

Don’t be fooled by Ubaldos W/L record, he is a much worse pitcher than his 8-8 record suggests. He has just been terrible this year when playing away, and his day game starts are even worse than that. His advanced stats are probably some of the worse in the league right now. Price on the other hand is has really dealing. He has been great against the Indians in the past and his home/day splits this year are just phenomenal. Although the Rays aren’t swinging the bat that good lately, I could easily see that changing today. They have the potential to put up 7-8 runs against Ubaldo, while Price has the stuff to pitch a shutout. I feel this is a good spot for a big play on the -1RL. Good luck everyone!

[dshaffe4]

Thursday 7/19/12

Play #1

Rays -1RL (-175) 5x

Don’t be fooled by Ubaldos W/L record, he is a much worse pitcher than his 8-8 record suggests. He has just been terrible this year when playing away, and his day game starts are even worse than that. His advanced stats are probably some of the worse in the league right now. Price on the other hand is has really dealing. He has been great against the Indians in the past and his home/day splits this year are just phenomenal. Although the Rays aren’t swinging the bat that good lately, I could easily see that changing today. They have the potential to put up 7-8 runs against Ubaldo, while Price has the stuff to pitch a shutout. I feel this is a good spot for a big play on the -1RL. Good luck everyone!

Play #2

RedSox -1RL (-147) 1x

This is yet another case where you shouldn't be fooled by Quintana's "pretty" low ERA. This guy is average at best and has began to show that his last 3 outings. Clay on the other hand, after getting off to a bad start, has been pitching a lot better over his last 3. With the way the RedSox have been hitting lefties over their last 10, I expect them expose what Quintana really is. The WhiteSox are averaging a measly .212 BA only scoring 2.01 runs over the last 5. Having Youki out of the lineup does not help the cause either. I think this is a matchup of 2 pretty evenly matched pitchers, but with one team hitting incredibly well and the other really struggling. It also helps that the RedSox has the much better bullpen. I feel this is yet another good spot to take a chance with the -1RL for 1x. Good Luck!

[dshaffe4]

Thursday's Recap

2-0 (+5.64x)

Updated Record

8-8 (+1.91x)

Okay back into the green! First play played out just like I expected with Price just pitching superb, and the second play was a nice consolation to make up for the Phillies loss on Wednesday. Got a couple underdog plays tonight that I feel really good about!

[dshaffe4]

Friday 7/20/12

Play #1

Brewers (+120) 1x

Locked this play in earlier this morning and it has continued to move in our favor all day. Despite only pitching 56 inning this year and posting a record of 0-3, Estrada's advanced stats show that he is overwhelmingly undervalued tonight. He has a ridiculous SO/BB ratio and an impressive .265 BABIP. His career numbers against the Reds are average, posting a 4.33 ERA in 27 innings of work. Homer on the other hand is another story despite his 8-6 record and his sub 4 ERA. He has benefited greatly from the Reds high power offense early in the season. This guy is a sub par pitcher at best. His career numbers against the Brewers are terrible and his numbers at home this year are just as bad. Both offenses are struggling against righties at the moment, but I will take my chances with the better pitcher against the Votto-less Reds. Good Luck!

Play #2

Cubs (+130) 1x

I was a little reluctant to pull the trigger on this one with the trade rumors surrounding Dempster. Both pitchers have put up impressive numbers this year. Despite Lohse's record and ERA, he too has benefited greatly from a high powered offense earlier in the season. His advanced stats show he has been a worse than average pitcher this year. In 14 career starts against the Cubs, he has poster a measly 2-4 record and a high ERA of 5.59 and .301 BAA. Dempster has really been dealing this year and as of late. Posting a 3-1 record in 7 starts away this year with a .95 ERA. The Cubs are riding a bit of a wave of momentum and the Cards are searching for some offense posting a 1-5 record over their last 6. Both offenses are averaging around .255 BA against righties over the last 10 with the Cubbies averaging 1 more run scored over that span, and almost 2 runs over the last 5. I'll take the team with the better pitcher and the team playing with the most confidence at a nice +130 price. Good Luck!

[dshaffe4]

Friday's Recap

0-2 (-2x)

Updated Record

8-10 (-.09x)

Great pitching performance by Homer. The Brewers just couldn't string some runs together last night. Dempster let me down last night giving up 3 in the first inning. Onto today's card!

[dshaffe4]

Saturday 7/21/12

Play #1

Pirates -1RL (-137) 2x

This is just simply a matchup of a better pitcher with the better offense and a team playing with confidence going against an average pitcher in Zambrano and the slumping Marlins. Another great spot to take a chance on the -1RL for 2x. Good Luck!

Play #2

Giants/Phillies Under 7 (-120) 1x

This may be the squarest play of the day, but you got 2 aces going against slumping offenses with strong under trends.

[dshaffe4]

Saturday's Recap

1-1 (+1.77x)

Updated Record

9-11 (+1.68x)

[dshaffe4]

Sunday 7/22/12

Play #1

Pirates (-125) 1x

Going to continue to ride the hotter team with the better offense with the more rested bullpen.

Play #2

Nationals -1RL (-135) 2x

As much as I hate to bet against my Bravos, Jurrjens is just struggling right now, and so is Atlanta’s offense against lefties. The Nats have the much better pitcher and rested bullpen along with the hotter offense against righties. They should be able to put up a good amount of runs today, so I’m taking a chance on the -1RL for 2x.

Play #3

Cardinals -1RL (-205) 2x

This is a lot of juice to lay, but again I’m taking the better pitcher with the hotter offense against the once again slumping Cubbies for 2x. Good luck!

[dshaffe4]

Sunday's Recap

3-0 (+6.67x)

Updated Record

12-11 (+8.35x)

Got the clean sweep today guys! I was very confident with these picks and they all cashed pretty easily. On to tomorrows card and thanks for looking guys!

[dshaffe4]

Monday 7/23/12

Play #1

National -1RL (-130) 2x

Only got one play for tonight and again I'm going with the better pitcher and the better offense. Zimmermann has been a really solid pitcher so far this year. 10 day ago he faced the Mets and only gave up 4 hits and no runs, while getting the win. Chris Young on the other hand has just had a terrible season averaging a horrific .52 GB/FB ratio and only a 2:1 SO/BB ratio. Although he only gave up 2 runs 5 days ago against the Nats, it was not that great of a pitching performance. Both teams are swinging the bats against righties pretty good right now, but I feel Zimmermann will be the difference in this one against a slumping Mets team. I really like this play and I am going to take a chance on the -1RL for 2x. Good Luck!

[dshaffe4]

Monday's Recap

1-0 (+2.67x)

Updated Record

13-11 (+11.02x)

Great pitching performance by both pitchers but a clutch Bryce Harper seals the win tonight boys! Great couple of days recently. Thanks for looking!