Thursday's MLB Stat of the Day - 6/28

[Jeff Grant]

The Detroit Tigers are the only American League team that Tampa Bay Rays SP James Shields has never lost to (5-0, 3.51 ERA)

Rays are currently minus-130 home favorites in the MLB betting odds

Angels vs. Blue Jays preview

White Sox vs. Yankees preview

[Jeff Grant]

One of the biggest pitching mismatches on paper (Cueto v. Bumgarner)

Bumgarner is 0-2 with a 8.56 ERA in three career starts versus the Reds

Cueto is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in three career starts versus the Giants (4-0, 1.47 ERA in four June starts this year)

[2daBank]

det pen is getting taxed at the moment as well..

[Jeff Grant]

det pen is getting taxed at the moment as well..

Good point - crazy game in Arlington tonight

[2daBank]

One of the biggest pitching mismatches on paper (Cueto v. Bumgarner)

Bumgarner is 0-2 with a 8.56 ERA in three career starts versus the Reds

Cueto is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in three career starts versus the Giants (4-0, 1.47 ERA in four June starts this year)

Reds always seem to like hitting the lefties, helps that Votto has always hit lefties as well if not better than righties.. gotta agree price seems nice to play cincy, sf coming off sweep of rival also seems like a good spot for little letdown....

side note: i cant wait to play cincy tt ov when they face zito..

good thread Jeff, good things to discuss

[jlee]

I like the Tigers over the Rays. Scherzer has good numbers (vs Rays), but again, is their bullpen going to be OK? The rays offense is anemic, I can't see them providing run support... will lay a bet down once I see the starting lineups tmrw

[2daBank]

I like the Tigers over the Rays. Scherzer has good numbers (vs Rays), but again, is their bullpen going to be OK? The rays offense is anemic, I can't see them providing run support... will lay a bet down once I see the starting lineups tmrw

ok yea tb struggled at kc no doubt, but that was end of long road trip that included a double header...if you recall before det got to tex they couldnt score a run to save their lives, funny what that park and a few avg pitchers will do for a offense. i have to believe facing shields in a pitcher paradise det offense may slow back down dramatically, not to mention i watched det playing the field today and i gotta say it much tougher to play good defense at the trop...you could certainly argue the tex series got the offense going in right direction (certainly possible)..

[Jeff Grant]

Pittsburgh Pirates
-OF Andrew McCutchen has hit all 14 of his home runs since May 8
-The Pirates have won eight of their last nine series
-Scored a season-high 11 runs, and banged out a season-high 14 hits last night
-Scored 120 runs this month, third among all NL teams
-SP A.J. Burnett is 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA this month


Washington Nationals
-Own the best record in the NL, and are 33-17 on the road since Sept. 12 of last season, which is the best such mark in the majors
-Lead the majors with 20 HR by first baseman this year, White Sox (18) and Blue Jays (16) are second and third on that list
-SP Edwin Jackson owns the highest career ERA (15.75) among active pitchers (min. three starts) at Coors Field
-Jackson has posted a 3-3 record and 2.20 ERA in his last seven starts

[Jeff Grant]

Baltimore Orioles
-Over SP Wei-Yin Chen's last seven starts, the Orioles have scored three or fewer runs six times, scoring a total of 19 runs over that span
-Offense is 2-for-47 (.043) with RISP over the last nine games
-Baltimore is 9-3 against AL Central foes this year
-Chen is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in seven home starts

Detroit Tigers
-The Tigers have won nine of their last 11 games against the Rays, posting a 2.24 ERA over that span
-Bullpen has a 2.28 ERA over its last 45 games
-3B Miguel Cabrera is batting .330 with eight HR and 38 RBI over his last 45 games, and he is 10-for-22 (.455) in his career against Rays SP James Shields
-Detroit is 8-8 against AL East teams this year
-SP Max Scherzer is 0-2 with a 3.06 ERA in three career starts versus the Rays

[Vjbrindisi]

Seems like your a stats fiend like myself. Respect.

Didn't see the Cincy variation. May jump on that now. Thanks

[shimeon40]

jeff..you have a best bet today?...tired of following dreamers here..want the real deal.

[Jeff Grant]

jeff..you have a best bet today?...tired of following dreamers here..want the real deal.

If you see something highlighted in blue - I guarantee you I played against that in every possible way

[Vjbrindisi]

From his stats you can figure out what ways he is leaning. He liked Pirates, Nats over, Orioles under, and seems mixed with Rays - Tigers

[shimeon40]

thanks

[Jeff Grant]

From his stats you can figure out what ways he is leaning. He liked Pirates, Nats over, Orioles under, and seems mixed with Rays - Tigers

Stats are just stats in this thread, but over the course of time, you'll find out which way I'm leaning in just about every game

I did just play a total bases prop with Miguel Cabrera vs. B.J. Upton

Cabrera has gone 10-for-22 (.455) in his career versus Shields, one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and will likely get more at-bats

[Jeff Grant]

Definitely looking to play the Reds tonight - especially if 2B Brandon Phillips gets to play on his birthday:

Cincinnati is 7-0 in Johnny Cueto's seven starts this year following a loss (Cueto 5-0 record in those outings)

[a4u2fear]

Definitely looking to play the Reds tonight - especially if 2B Brandon Phillips gets to play on his birthday:

Cincinnati is 7-0 in Johnny Cueto's seven starts this year following a loss (Cueto 5-0 record in those outings)

wish I saw the Colorado stats earlier, damn missed it.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Thanks for this it is very valuable. Great post....keep em coming.

[JMon]

Definitely looking to play the Reds tonight - especially if 2B Brandon Phillips gets to play on his birthday:

Cincinnati is 7-0 in Johnny Cueto's seven starts this year following a loss (Cueto 5-0 record in those outings)

The Reds went 9-4 last year in this situation as well..

[JMon]

Since 2010, the Rays are 8-0 as a home favorite in the first game of a series on a 2 or more game losing streak (with average win margin of a whopping 4.2 runs a game). However, the Tigers are a salty 26-6 (only 3-3 this year) since sept. 2010 after scoring 9 or more runs.

Tomorrow, the Rays are 18-3 (3-1 this year) since May 12, 2010 following a quality road start from David Price. Should get great value with a match up against Verlander. Price at +120 against Hamels this year was a winner.

Giants are 14-0 since June 26, 2011 when Bumgarner starts as a home favorite (5-0 this year).. The line moved to a fav spot.

Tomorrow, Since 2007 Cain is 0-11 (0-1 this year) after allowing 7 or less hit in his last start and the BP gave up more runs than he did, however, still lost the game.

[Jeff Grant]

The Reds went 9-4 last year in this situation as well..

Good to know - thank you for helping out