Are the Nats good value 2nite. Game write up. Any thoughts?

[TheBack]

The Nats are winners of 3 in a row. 8-2 in last 10. Edwin Jackson can be down right filthy. The Nats play well on the road and are a gritty team.

Here are some interesting stats below.

The Nats are 4-2 in inter league play so far this year. Plus a wierd stat the Nats are 14-6 in series opening games this year and 6-4 in opening games of road series.
The Jays are 3-3 in inter league play this year .The Jays are 10-10 in series opening games. The Jays are 5-6 in opening games of a home series.

I know its agianst Morrow but i his last 5 games he given up 6 runs twice and has walked 12 in his last30 innings. Now he does get alot of k's but they are treating him like a god. Amd the Jays dont get him that much run support. Dont u think Morrow could be do to throw up a stinker. And dont forget he has a shin contusion which who knows could affect him maybe.

Now i could be wrong and Morrow could pitch a gem but for the price ur getting on the Nats i think the Nats are a very good value.

[pattymayo]

Idk, they are big dogs for a reason. You'd think a team that just swept Boston in Fenway wouldn't be +145.. Something fishy . I think morrow shuts them down and Jays win easily

[TheBack]

Let me what u guys think. I would like some feed back. Wether u agree or disagree with me.

[TheBack]

Yea i hear u. But i think the Jays are such big favs is bcuz 1)they are home and 2) Morrow is pitching. Also 3) i think alot of people still dont think the Nats are for real.

Like i said Jays may win but i think there is plenty of value with the Nats here for a game that i think is very winable for the Nats.

[TheBack]

Just think about it how many times do huge home favorites lose. It happends all the time bcuz people see the opening line and think its an auto win. Look at the tigers when Verlander pitches. They have been huge favs and got beat plenty.

Morrow is having a hell of a year but he has had starts were he has been hit hard. And the Nats are hot and should not be this big of a dog. I mean the Jays arent that dependable.

[jlee]

Morrow throws a lot of pitches, but he's pitched 3 CG shutouts. If the nats work his pitch count, the jays bullpen will blow it. + the Jays haven't been providing run support for morrow lately. Nats has some value, as I don't think it'll be a jays blowout, but a much closer matchup

[TheBack]

Thank you too the people who have read and left thier thoughts on the game. I wanna hear from everyone on this. I think this is a huge value and b4 i plunk down a big bet on this i wanna feedback and thoughts weather u agree or disagree. All of ur input will be greatly appreciated. And if im right and i can help some people make a good score then im happy. If im wrong and u guys change my mind and save me $$ then ill be greatful.
This is what its about sharing notes and helping each other crush the books. So keep ur feedback coming.

[Jeff Grant]

Main concern in backing the Nationals tonight - Jackson has given up 15 HRs in 85 combined innings against the Blue Jays in his career

[jbess]

I wont let Jackson screw me again. IMO, I think he is the worst pitcher they have. I wouldn't play nats tonight.

[BXbomber11]

I like Wash

[sigchikyle]

I like Nats TT over 3.5.. been killing the ball and blue jays pen isn't that great

[Redscot]

Main concern in backing the Nationals tonight - Jackson has given up 15 HRs in 85 combined innings against the Blue Jays in his career

3 of which were against guys he will face tonight. I fail to see the relevance. A 3.23 era over 47+ innings in Rogers Center more than counters that concern imo, although I don't put too much weight in it either.

I wrote this earlier in another thread theback.

So here's a little exercise for a boring Monday morning. Match the stats to the pitcher:

11.5% swinging strike, 44% GB, 93.7 avg FB,---------3.62 Siera
8.5% swinging strike, 41.4 GB, 92.9 avg FB ---------3.63 Siera

One is Morrow and the other is Jackson................

Granted the Bluejays bat's have been much hotter of late, and Clippard has pitched 3 days in a row for the Nat's. Still, +146 seems generous to me.

Now it is all the way up to +156.......if you buy into it being a pitcher duel you can do a +1 R/L on the Nat's for positive money, getting yourself a push if they lose by 1.

I am laying off, but I think I'm pussin' out on this one......+156 seems too good to be true. GL if you play it.

[TheBack]

This year so far right handers are hitting .197 agianst Jackson. And when he faced another AL East team the Orioles he pitched 8.0 innings and only gave up 1 run 5 hits and only 1 walk. And i thin they have a better lineup the Jays. And that was when Bmore was white hot. I know Morrow did rhe samw agianst the O's but Morrow got the O's when they were slumping.

[TheBack]

Thanks Redscot. I just think like u said the value is crazy for the Nats. I dont understand it maybe it Marrow fever.

[matt1216]

morrow has given up 6 rus tmes in last 5 games........ he also has a 0.52era in 7 out of those 9 games . one of those games was against a hot texas team at the time. I thinkmorrow will be lights out tonight..... i believe he is by far the jays bet pitcher and his consistancy i getting better. jays win 75% of his starts while the Nats dont give jackson any run support this year. cant explain it,,,, sometimes pitchers ge scrwed alot by no run support. look at romero...... as a number 1 his era is over4.. yet he is 7-1. i think jays win low scoring tho

4-2 jays

[Darkside Magick]

The only play is the nats .....cant pull the trigger though

[crackerjack]

Seems like you are just looking for people to support your pick so you can feel better about it. The line is about right...being square and watching the jays bats come alive last night I bet on Toronto. Main reason is I seem to good luck going against Jackson and I just like Toronto in this spot. Also like Toronto to win the series. I could be way off though.

[Redscot]

The only play is the nats .....cant pull the trigger though

This is where I stand too.

[starfire]

Nats only in a parlay

[TheBack]

Call me crazy but im up 3860 from last week. For some reason i live the Nats after looking at everything. This is gonna be a huge play for me im doing

Nats +156 for 1000.00

F@ck it scared $$$dont make no $$$. Im real confident in this and im going to take a shot at what i think is a pretty good investment.

LOL prob will be Nats-0 Jays-7 after 1 inning.

[TheBack]

I did it just put it in. Im still free rolling after taking Bradley over Pacman for a Nickel thats why i was up so big last week. So i figure i got a gift with that bogus Bradley win that i have to follow what i think.

[moshi]

Call me crazy but im up 3860 from last week. For some reason i live the Nats after looking at everything. This is gonna be a huge play for me im doing

Nats +156 for 1000.00

F@ck it scared $$$dont make no $$$. Im real confident in this and im going to take a shot at what i think is a pretty good investment.

LOL prob will be Nats-0 Jays-7 after 1 inning.

Haha. I'm on them too. GL.

[Darkside Magick]

In one of my model the game is 50/50 .....so oddwise ....the nats is the +ev play...the others had the jays 60/40

[TheBack]

I want to thank everyone who viewed and commented with ur thoughts on the game. GOOD LUCK TO U ALL. Im prob gonna be checking in during the game.

[Gamble32jn]

I'm firing jays and under

[TheBack]

Holy sh1t Morrow left with an injury i think.

[sigchikyle]

wow feel sorry for whoever bet jays lol

[Ron29301]

Wow.......Really!!!!

[crackerjack]

Yeah your bet is looking good. Morrow done after nine pitches. F me...

[TheBack]

Not over yet. Still have too see what Jackson looks like when the Nats take the field. Cuz if hes off non of this matters.

[hezawizard]

good thing I have rays RL, fck me and life and god or whoever is up there thinkin this shit is funny, **** it

edit: and fck this chad beck dude

[Ron29301]

WTF are the doing out there?

[TheBack]

Big out for the jays.

[TheBack]

Well i got 2 runs and Morrow left with an injury. Why am i not relaxed. Well if i lose i cant be mad cuz i got even more value then i thought i was getting. So if it loses it means it just wasnt ment to be. Come Jackson dont let me down. Man i have a feeling Edwin will f@ck this up for me.

[Ron29301]

GONE!!!!!