Couple of Saturday observations

[No coincidences]

First, I love the Angels again. I said yesterday that this is a statement series for them and you're getting CJ Wilson at + money at home against Darvish. Already put 5U on LAA.

Second, here are a few line discrepancies I see late Friday night (Pinny vs. Bodog):

Dodgers are +128 at Pinny vs. +115 at Bodog -- consider Rockies -135
Astros are +113 at Pinny vs. +100 at Bodog -- consider Reds -118
Cardinals are -120 at Pinny vs. -135 at Bodog -- consider Mets +115
A's are +112 at Pinny vs. -105 at Bodog -- consider Royals -115

Also looking into the O's and Pirates.

[taxe91]

i like the reds with latos on the mound but wandy has been great this year.

i actually like the cardinals because lance lynn has been elite this year, dickey has been great too but strangely im not sold on him. cardinals have a better offense even without berkman

and cargo and the rockies could be backed at just about any price right now, mustve scored 100 runs in their past 5 or so games.

not leaning either way in the rangers/angels matchup yet. i think CJ's price will come down as we get closer to the game and i might jump on darvish if he gets to -105 or so, i wouldnt want to fade a 100 win team in the rangers, 2 games in a row.

[No coincidences]

i like the reds with latos on the mound but wandy has been great this year.

i actually like the cardinals because lance lynn has been elite this year, dickey has been great too but strangely im not sold on him. cardinals have a better offense even without berkman

and cargo and the rockies could be backed at just about any price right now, mustve scored 100 runs in their past 5 or so games.

not leaning either way in the rangers/angels matchup yet. i think CJ's price will come down as we get closer to the game and i might jump on darvish if he gets to -105 or so, i wouldnt want to fade a 100 win team in the rangers, 2 games in a row.

Very surface analysis, but Lynn is beyond due for a stinker.

With that being said, I hate backing teams the day after a no-no -- especially in a night/day situation.

[taxe91]

Very surface analysis, but Lynn is beyond due for a stinker.

With that being said, I hate backing teams the day after a no-no -- especially in a night/day situation.

not necessarily, his BABIP is right in line with his (short) career average and his K% is very impressive for a starting pitcher (23%) and hes pitching against a mets offense which is 5th in the majors in strikeouts. on the other side you have dickey and his 14% HR/FB rate going up against a offense with the 5th most homers in the majors.

having said that i think this game could be a blowout either way, either the cards put up 6+ runs or, like you said, lynn has an absolute stinker and the mets bats stay hot

[No coincidences]

not necessarily, his BABIP is right in line with his (short) career average and his K% is very impressive for a starting pitcher (23%) and hes pitching against a mets offense which is 5th in the majors in strikeouts. on the other side you have dickey and his 14% HR/FB rate going up against a offense with the 5th most homers in the majors.

having said that i think this game could be a blowout either way, either the cards put up 6+ runs or, like you said, lynn has an absolute stinker and the mets bats stay hot

I'm thinking more in terms of his record and the fact that the workload will catch up to him sooner rather than later. I like Lynn a lot -- he's on my fantasy team -- but is he going to win 25 games this year?

[taxe91]

I'm thinking more in terms of his record and the fact that the workload will catch up to him sooner rather than later. I like Lynn a lot -- he's on my fantasy team -- but is he going to win 25 games this year?

dickey has a 7-1 record too though so one of them has to take the loss, i'd rather side with lynn in this spot. lynn's been groomed as a starter so the workload wont really be an issue till maybe august/september (re: 2011 alexi ogando), i think the cards messed up a bit by making him close last year despite being a starter all through the minors, then again i cant argue with a world series ring.

[No coincidences]

True re: Dickey -- I've tried fading him quite a few times this season, and it never seems to work.

[taxe91]

True re: Dickey -- I've tried fading him quite a few times this season, and it never seems to work.

true hes a quality start machine. its like me trying to fade the orioles until this past week, i kept waiting for them to cool off but its taken 2 months of the season to finally happen

[taxe91]

not leaning either way in the rangers/angels matchup yet. i think CJ's price will come down as we get closer to the game and i might jump on darvish if he gets to -105 or so, i wouldnt want to fade a 100 win team in the rangers, 2 games in a row.

patience pays dividends. texas @ -105.

[EC4THREE10]

Love reds today also ....