[Illusion]

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

[mlwitchking]

bought yankee's early at -105. i just think they have too much offense not to take that. anyone else agree or disagree?

[Razz]

5Dimes
1* Reds (Rusch/Arroyo) -103
1* White Sox (Lee/Contreras) -121

Wrong thread.

[Illusion]

I really love your Reds play Razz. I'm probably gonna throw 3-4 units on this one.

[mlwitchking]

not sure what to do:
when i don't bet on my gut feelings the gut is 6-0
when i bet on my gut feelings the gut is 0-6 now.
i don't have an infinite bankroll!!!
i guess i will back down to two or three bets only a day.

[Razz]

i guess i will back down to two or three bets only a day.

Probably a good idea early in the season.

[mlwitchking]

looking to add one more. here are some value choices from this forum and statfox:
Rangers (Loe) Over Red Sox (Beckett) ML (+135)
Reds (Arroyo) Over Cubs (Rusch) ML (-110)
Rockies (Cook) Over Diamondbacks (Hernandez) ML (-125)
Any thoughts on these three?

[PhilRizzo]

looking to add one more. here are some value choices from this forum and statfox:
Rangers (Loe) Over Red Sox (Beckett) ML (+135)
Reds (Arroyo) Over Cubs (Rusch) ML (-110)
Rockies (Cook) Over Diamondbacks (Hernandez) ML (-125)
Any thoughts on these three?

I love the Rockies play, I'm putting 2 units on it. Cook is the best pitcher on the staff, he does well at Coors. I'm also taking Under 11. Again, improved Rockies bullpen and a solid closer. Neither one of these offenses scare me.

[mlwitchking]

interesting stat for all of you picking the reds:
glendon rusch is hitting .667 against bronson arroyo

[mlwitchking]

after looking at espn's stats, i have decided on a different game: STL over PHI. Here is why:
Mulder and Myers have similar stats. However, look how the Cardinals Big Three are batting against Myers:
Pujols is 7 for 17 (.412) with 1 HR
Rolen is 7 for 13 (.538) with 1 HR
Edmonds is 5 for 11 (.455) with 1 HR
These three are a combined 19 for 41 (.462) with 3 HRs. They are healthy now and have too much talent for Saint Louis not to score. Mulder is still a solid pitcher who can eat innings. Money Line on the Cardinals is a good pick.

[Wassymac]

Mulder did seem to figure out his delivery in the spring and I expect a solid year from him but he's not one I trust in that ridiculous ballpark. I do think the Cards will win (i'm a homer) but I think the value is in the Over. By my count the last 10 games between these two have gone over...I'll stick with that trend.

[Wassymac]

Its taking a lot of self control to keep from laying another unit or two on the Reds tomorrow. Anytime I can get even money with any team at home against Rusch I feel like I have to take my chances...(although he did finish the year strong last year).

[imgv94]

bought yankee's early at -105. i just think they have too much offense not to take that. anyone else agree or disagree?

Well Yankees just lost, so I expect them to win
this game or their next for sure.

[imgv94]

I am really looking at the Cards as a play tomorrow!!

[presley177]

Well Yankees just lost, so I expect them to win
this game or their next for sure.

I'd pass on this game all-together...the A's have a much superior pitcher going for them tommorow.

[imgv94]

I'd pass on this game all-together...the A's have a much superior pitcher going for them tommorow.

I am not going to bet, I know when the Yankees are
going to win!! When I have more than 2 units on them
follow me. I agree game is a pass. That oriental pitcher
scares me off.

[Wassymac]

I'd pass on this game all-together...the A's have a much superior pitcher going for them tommorow.

# Athletics are 7-2 in Haren's last 9 starts during game 3 of a series.
# Athletics are 17-5 in Haren's last 22 starts on Grass.
# Athletics are 10-3 in Haren's last 13 home starts.

[Willie Bee]

Chicago (G.Rusch) at Cincinnati (B.Arroyo) - 12:35 p.m. (ET)

Glendon Rusch, a notoriously slow starter, makes his 2006 debut opposite a team he’s had decent success against the past few seasons. Rusch has made three starts and nine relief appearances against Cincy with a 3.34 ERA and .212 BAA in just over 32 IP. The two Reds batters he has had the most trouble with are Adam Dunn (.333, 4 HR, 21 AB) and Ken Griffey Jr (.238, 3 HR, 21 AB). He is either hit-or-miss with Dunn, like a lot of other pitchers, giving up 7 hits and striking out Dunn 7 times in those 21 at bats. Rusch had a 5.96 ERA and .341 BAA in 22.2 spring innings.

Bronson Arroyo is making his NL and Reds debut after coming from Boston in late spring trade. Most of his spring work was as with the Sox, and it was not good (6.85 ERA, 4 HR, 23.2 IP). He has yet to pitch in the relatively new Cincy park, and has made just one appearance against the Cubs in his career. That started lasted but four innings and he was belted for 10hits, two of them homers. Many of those Cubs who whipped him that game are no longer with the club. Neifi Perez (.182, 11 AB) has seen Arroyo the most. Jacque Jones (.375, 8 AB) saw Arroyo some in the AL.

This game has 9-8 written all over it. So that means it will probably be a 3-2 pitchers’ duel considering how the baseball gods like to remind us who’s in charge from time to time. I do like the o10½ in this one, and would give a slight edge to the home team if only because a lot of Cubs hitters will be seeing Arroyo for the first time.


Cleveland (C.Lee) at Chicago (J.Contreras) – 2:05 p.m. (ET)

Cliff Lee had a very rough spring (6.38 ERA, .324 BAA, 6 HR, 24 IP), but is a pretty good bull to be riding out of the early gate (3.04 ERA, 11-2 in April-May). The White Sox have had their way with Lee in the past to the tune of a 6.86 ERA and 8 HR in his most recent 42 IP facing the defending champs. Lee is no doubt very happy to see that Aaron Rowand, Magglio Ordoñez and Cliff Lee are no longer in the ChiSox order. Paul Konerko (.316, 2 HR, 19 AB) and AJ Pierzynski (.500, HR, 8 AB) will be ones to watch today when facing Lee. The only Chicago batter he’s had much success against is Jermaine Dye (.111, 9 AB).

Jose Contreras has not been a great April pitcher, but he has been solid against the Tribe during his career. Contreras is 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA and .187 BAA in his most recent five starts against Cleveland covering more than 34 IP. He has a 9-6 record with a 3.66 ERA in his last 24 starts at Cell Phone field on Chicago’s South Side. Contreras has dominated Victor Martinez (.083, 12 AB), Troy Hafner (.154, 13 AB) and Grady Sizemore (.167, HR, 12 AB). Aaron Boone (.333, 9 AB) has had the most success against Contreras who had a decent spring (3.07 ERA, 17 K, 14.2 IP).

Can’t help but like the White Sox in this one looking at the pitching matchups, not to mention the very good likelihood that the home team is going for a series win.


Detroit (J.Bonderman) at Kansas City (J.Mays) – 2:10 p.m. (ET)

Jeremy Bonderman is 6-7 in his last 14 April starts with a 5.42 ERA and is coming off a spring in which he surrendered 7 HR in 24.2 IP. He’s made nine starts and two relief appearances against the Royals the last three seasons with a 4.70 ERA and 5 HR allowed in 59.1 IP. At Kauffman Std in that span, he is 1-2 in four games with a 4.71 ERA (21 IP). His biggest nemesis on the KC roster is Matt Stairs (.545, 2 HR, 11 AB). He fairs well against Mike Sweeney (.188, HR, 16 AB) and Doug Mientkiewicz (.100, 10 AB).

Joe Mays has been stronger earlier than later in the season, but has found the Tigers to be a less than willing foe. In four starts and two relief outings the past few years, Mays is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA, .333 BAA and 10 walks in 21.1 IP. He has fared well over his career against Magglio Ordoñez (.182, HR, 44 AB) and Brandon Inge (.095, 21 AB). But Ivan Rodriguez (.364, 2 HR, 22 AB), Dmitri Young (.500, 10 AB), Craig Monroe (.667, HR, 9 AB) and Placido Polanco (5-for-6, .833) have lit Mays up.

Picking between a couple of teams you could easily classify as dogs is often more difficult than choosing a couple of top-notch squads. On top of that you have the fact that Detroit and KC have had a day off since the Tigers opened with a 3-1 win on Monday. The Tigers scored all of their runs on solo homers in that game, and I like them in this one as new manager Jim Leyland keeps a fire lit under their striped tails.

[Alamorich]

Reds -110 2U Won
Reds -1 +129 Won

Brewers -105 Won
Rockies -115Loss
Padres +105Loss
Tigers -145 Won
Orioles -150 Won
Indians +126 Won
Dodgers -113

Zona/Rocks U10.5Win
Giants/Padres U7.5Win
Cardinals/Phillys O8.5 Loss

You guys might want to fade me the rest of the night.

[mlwitchking]

Big six game losing streak for me. cleveland wins 4-3 in 11. Chicago had runners in scoring position in the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th, but couldn't bring anyone home. Podsednik was 0-5. I thought I saw a White Sox strikeout in each of the 7th through the 11th with runners in scoring position.

[Wassymac]

Mulder did seem to figure out his delivery in the spring and I expect a solid year from him but he's not one I trust in that ridiculous ballpark. I do think the Cards will win (i'm a homer) but I think the value is in the Over. By my count the last 10 games between these two have gone over...I'll stick with that trend.

Mulder is looking like the Mulder of old. Ruins my over bet but bodes well for the Redbirds this season. **EDIT** Should have known better than to bring that up...2 run HR

[mlwitchking]

3 all in bottom on the eighth

[mlwitchking]

molina singles in the top of the 9th with two outs to score the go ahead run, Rolen, from second. Go Cards!

[Razz]

Two heartbreaking losses for me today - CWS have the game-winning run on third with 1 out three innings in a row and can't score, and the Phillies give up a fluke run in the top 9th of a tied game, and then load the bases in the bottom of the inning and don't score.
It's especially frustrating because the last four games I scratched off (including the Twins, who I had ready to bet, but decided not to confirm) won relatively easily. Oh well, on to tomorrow - supposedly these things even out.

[bigboydan]

sorry razz, but i had the tribe perty healthy today and was very pleased with that out come.

[moses millsap]

Phillies game was tough, but didn't really bother me, since the Cards should've been winning by a larger margin if they hadn't stranded so many runners. Knew I had no hope when it was left up to Lieberthal

[bigboydan]

well owned, how would you feel if you had the mets tonight. the mets had a 4-0 lead, and wagner blew the save. then the nats score like 5 runs in the 10th.

[moses millsap]

well owned, how would you feel if you had the mets tonight. the mets had a 4-0 lead, and wagner blew the save. then the nats score like 5 runs in the 10th.

Have the Nats, so happy with this one

[bigboydan]

Have the Nats, so happy with this one

me too bud

when i was at the track earlier. i kept hearing it was 4-0 mets, so i wrote it off. but when i get home, and checked the scores. they were tied up going into the 10th. the next thing i know, the nats realed off 5 runs in the top of the 10th.

btw, your welcome ILL

[Illusion]

well owned, how would you feel if you had the mets tonight. the mets had a 4-0 lead, and wagner blew the save. then the nats score like 5 runs in the 10th.

I sure was happy they blew that lead.

[moses millsap]

Turnbow's working his 3rd straight game, given up back to back walks, bases loaded and Duffy goes up there and hacks at a high fastball on the first pitch and pops out to end the game.

[Razz]

Phillies game was tough, but didn't really bother me, since the Cards should've been winning by a larger margin if they hadn't stranded so many runners. Knew I had no hope when it was left up to Lieberthal

Really, I only watched the 9th inning, but I heard the Phillies gave up like 9 walks. Lieberthal is a clown. If he makes a decent throw to second, Pujols is out by 10 feet, and the inning is over two minutes later. Then he swings at two terrible pitches.
I watched most of the CWS game, and that was the one that made me want to throw up.

[bigboydan]

I didn't think that would be the way we were gonna cash that ticket. but, i'll take it

[Alamorich]

Recaping

Reds -110 2U Won
Reds -1 +129 Won

Brewers -105 Won
Rockies -115 Loss
Padres +105Loss
Tigers -145 Won
Orioles -150 Won
Indians +126 Won
Dogders -113

Zona/Rocks U10.5 Win
Giants/Padres U7.5 Win
Cardinals/Phillys O8.5 Loss (didn't see the game but sounds like a miracle it didn't go over)

[mlwitchking]

lets put is this way. the cardinals left 13 men on base. pujols made a running error in the top of the ninth. it could have been a lot bigger.

also, yankees up by 4 bottom 4th, but oakland is threatning with the bases loaded and 1 out with milton bradley coming up to bat.