Baseball - Blindly Betting Underdogs - 2006

**onlooker** · 07-02-06, 02:11 AM

Very nice rebound by the dogs yesterday.

I will post the dog from the Phillies/Blue Jays game once I see Pinnacle post it.

Code:

951 Giants     +126       Yesterday:   8-8      +4.23
953 Phillies   +212       July 2006:   8-8      +4.23
955 Mets       +132       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
957 Orioles    +110             [B]YTD: 176-219   +16.70[/B]
959 Devil Rays +108
962 Marlins    +100
964 Reds       +120
966 Pirates    +179
967 Brewers    +251
969 Royals     +190
972 Cubs       +106
973 Dodgers    +138
975 Rockies    +110
977 D-Backs    +125
979 Astros     +162

**onlooker** · 07-03-06, 03:21 AM

Yesterday was pretty much a even one. I think if you played the dogs closer to game time, the outcome would of been plus money.

I will post the dog of the Pirates/Mets game once I see Pinnacle post it.

Code:

902 Brewers    +108       Yesterday:   6-9      -0.59
904 Nationals  +106       July 2006:  14-17     +3.64
905 Cardinals  +102       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
907 Pirates    +164             [B]YTD: 182-228   +16.11[/B]
909 Cubs       +174 
911 Giants     +105
913 D-Backs    +148
916 Indians    +130
917 Orioles    +141 
920 Devil Rays +152
922 Rangers    -102
924 Royals     +262
926 Athletics  +106
927 Angels     +111

**moses millsap** · 07-04-06, 01:57 AM

Dogs went nuts today

**bigboydan** · 07-04-06, 02:00 AM

i can't wait to see looker update todays numbers. that should be interesting, even with him using the overnite numbers.

**moses millsap** · 07-04-06, 02:04 AM

10-4 +8.23 units

OR

9-4 +6.59 units (The Pirates/Mets line was taken OTB twice, so I don't think the +164 played with Maine starting over Oliver)

**onlooker** · 07-04-06, 02:58 AM

Yesterday was very nice for the dogs. Hitting 10 out of 14 games.

I used the +164 for the Pirates as I seen simular lines around game time for the Pirates, even with the pitcher change.

Code:

951 Marlins    +100       Yesterday:  10-4      +8.23
953 Pirates    +192       July 2006:  24-21    +11.87
955 Cubs       +125       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
958 Brewers    +121             [B]YTD: 192-232   +24.34[/B]
959 Padres     +125
962 Braves     +135
964 Rockies    +109
965 D-Backs    +126
967 Angels     +119 
969 Orioles    +170
972 Devil Rays +186
974 Athletics  +100
976 Indians    -103
978 Rangers    +166
980 Royals     +147

**paul2650** · 07-04-06, 10:26 AM

Very interesting, since I tend to bet almost all 'dogs, if they're playing halfway decently.

Did real well with KC in June since their big losing streak ended, and Florida also.

It usually takes the "market" a while to catch up to teams like that, and it can sometimes be a week or 10 days before the line starts to reflect their improved play.

Plus, you sometimes get them at home, vs. a "better" team that's using a mediocre pitcher, and you can still sometimes get them at +1.60 or even more.

**onlooker** · 07-05-06, 02:56 AM

Yesterday was pretty much a even day, but we know betting dogs on a even day will bring plus units. Small, but still a gain.

Code:

902 Phillies   +117       Yesterday:   7-8      +0.82
903 Marlins    +135       July 2006:  31-29    +12.69
905 Pirates    +186       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
907 Cardinals  +118             [B]YTD: 199-240   +25.16[/B]
909 Reds       +100
911 Cubs       +210
913 Giants     +104
915 D-Backs    +162
918 Athletics  +130
920 Indians    +112
922 Devil Rays +105
923 Orioles    +154
925 Blue Jays  +106
928 Royals     +169
929 Angels     +118

**doc** · 07-05-06, 10:38 AM

Onlooker I know of someone else who is doing this as well here is there record.

Record 149-190 (43.95%)
+12.22 Units
Bankroll $1244.40 (+$244.40)
ALT RUNLINE 39-71 +16.90 Units

So it would appear you have been doing this longer but he is also tracking all alt runlines on dogs as well and that to is slightly
better than breakeven so far.

The beauty of gaining this knowledge, if it will hold up over a substantial sample size, is it is perfect for meeting rollovers on bonuses.

Keep up the great work.

**Illusion** · 07-05-06, 12:09 PM

Thanks doc, that alt runline record isn't really all that bad. It's good to see some figures on that.

**onlooker** · 07-06-06, 02:05 AM

Dogs took a hit yesterday. Only hitting on 5 out of 15 games.

Code:

951 Marlins    +121       Yesterday:   5-10     -2.63
953 Padres     +120       July 2006:  36-39    +10.06
955 Pirates    +167       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
957 Reds       +170             [B]YTD: 204-250   +22.53[/B]
959 Cubs       +154
961 Cardinals  +116
963 Giants     +113
965 Yankees    +104
968 Devil Rays +144
969 Oriloes    +186
972 Royals     +134
974 Athletics  +103

**onlooker** · 07-07-06, 02:57 AM

Yesterday ended up being a losing one for the dogs.

I will post the dog from the Marlins/Nationals game once I see Pinnacle post it.

Code:

901 Padres     -104       Yesterday:   5-7      -1.26
903 Pirates    +152       July 2006:  41-46     +8.80
906 Mets       +120       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
907 Reds       +128             [B]YTD: 209-257   +21.27[/B]
909 Cardinals  +112
912 Brewers    +135
913 D-Backs    +123
916 Dodgers    -101
917 Orioles    +156
920 Devil Rays +129
921 Twins      +111
924 Royals     +180
925 Red Sox    +127
927 Angels     +105
930 Mariners   +133

**bigboydan** · 07-07-06, 11:10 AM

i believe the nats were a -136 favorite when it opened at pinny onlooker.

**onlooker** · 07-07-06, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by onlòóker

I will post the dog from the Marlins/Nationals game once I see Pinnacle post it.

Originally posted by bigboydan

i believe the nats were a -136 favorite when it opened at pinny onlooker.

I meant the Marlins/Mets game. Looks like its Lima Time again in New York.

The Nationals I dont think opened that high today. They are currently -105. It was -104 last night before I went to bed.

**doc** · 07-07-06, 04:03 PM

Onlooker, are you playing these or just tracking them?

**onlooker** · 07-07-06, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by doc

Onlooker, are you playing these or just tracking them?

Just tracking them. Yes I play a few, but thats based on what I capped. Im just wanting to see what the end result will be. I wish I would of started from the beginning of the season. I will probably do this every year, maybe in the different sports as well.

I did state in the first post of this thread that I will not be playing each game, so people were advised.

**doc** · 07-07-06, 04:23 PM

Gotcha man. I have been looking at this for a while now as a great way to bust out bonuses.... The only concern I have is the lines should get sharper as the year progresses and the faves may catch up in a big way.

nice work man.

**onlooker** · 07-08-06, 05:20 AM

Thanks doc.

Yesterday the dogs made it a good day. Hitting 9 out of 15 games and racking in a nice profit.

I will post the the Marlins/Mets double header dogs once I see Pinnacle post them.

Code:

951 G1 Marlins -103       Yesterday:   9-6      +5.27
953 Giants     +131       July 2006:  50-52    +14.07
955 Cardinals  +131       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
957 Cubs       +159             [B]YTD: 218-263   +26.54[/B]
960 Nationals  +125
961 Pirates    +146
963 Reds       +124
965 D-Backs    -104
968 White Sox  -102
969 Orioles    -103
972 Royals     +141
974 Devil Rays -101
976 Rangers    +165
978 Athletics  +112
980 Mariners   +108
981 G2 Marlins +131

Going to be a interesting day with a lot of homedogs, and a few chalk dogs.

**doc** · 07-08-06, 10:53 AM

Hey man I don't know how interested you are in this, but here is my ALT RUN LINE record tracking them blindly for the last couple of weeks....

ALT RUNLINE 52-98 +17.70 Units (34.67%)

**Illusion** · 07-08-06, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by doc

Hey man I don't know how interested you are in this, but here is my ALT RUN LINE record tracking them blindly for the last couple of weeks....

ALT RUNLINE 52-98 +17.70 Units (34.67%)

Thanks for the update doc because I am really interested in how those have been doing.

**onlooker** · 07-09-06, 02:06 AM

Thanks for that alternate runline update, doc.

Yesterday proved to be to much for the dogs, as the chalk cashed on 10 of the 16 games.

I will post the dog of the Tigers/Mariners game once I see Pinnacle puts it on the board.

Code:

902 Braves     +123       Yesterday:   6-10     -2.79
903 Padres     +111       July 2006:  56-62    +11.28
905 Marlins    +157       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
907 Pirates    +146             [B]YTD: 224-273   +23.75[/B]
909 Cubs       +127
911 D-Backs    +133
914 Dodgers    +115
916 Astros     +123
917 Orioles    +161
920 Devil Rays +110
921 Red Sox    +118
924 Rangers    +184
926 Royals     +185
928 Mariners   +105
929 Angels     +112

**bigboydan** · 07-10-06, 04:36 PM

now lets see how the dogs do in the 2nd half of the season. my guess is that the chalk will start cashing in alot more from roughly mid-august til the end of the season.

**onlooker** · 07-10-06, 11:42 PM

I will post the updated record for this on Wednesday night when Pinnacle posts the lines for the Thursday games. This past Sunday looked to be a great day for the dogs to.

This is where this tracking will come into play Dan. To see if the chalk does indeed cash more in the second half.

**onlooker** · 07-13-06, 02:27 AM

Ok, was that Allstar break long enough? Seems like a week when it was only 3 days. Now its time to see how this second half of the season stacks up. Since June, this has been going pretty well.

Sunday was a great day for the dogs, hitting 10 out of 15 and bring home a profit of almost 8 units. Would be nice to see more of these type days in the last 3 months of the regular season.

I will post the dog from the Rangers/Orioles game once in see Pinnacle post it.

Code:

952 Marlins    -103          Sunday:  10-5     +7.81
953 Rockies    +110       July 2006:  66-67    +19.09
955 Dodgers    +137       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
957 Royals     +251             [B]YTD: 234-278   +31.56[/B]
959 Athletics  +170
961 Orioles    +100
963 Indians    +192

**onlooker** · 07-14-06, 01:08 PM

Yesterday the small card proved to be a bad one for the dogs. Not losing much, but still losing.

Code:

902 Cubs       +104       Yesterday:   2-5      -1.41
903 Nationals  +114       July 2006:  68-72    +17.68
905 Rockies    +128       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
908 Marlins    +150             [B]YTD: 236-283   +30.15[/B]
909 Dodgers    +160
911 Brewers    -104
913 Braves     +118
915 Phillies   +108
917 Royals     +214
919 Athletics  +165
922 Orioles    +110
923 Mariners   +108
925 White Sox  +109
927 Indians    +108
929 Devil Rays +192

**onlooker** · 07-15-06, 02:10 AM

Yesterday was a terrible day for the dogs. Only hitting 4 out of 15 and dropping over 5 units.

Code:

951 Dodgers    +140       Yesterday:   4-11     -5.59
953 Phillies   +111       July 2006:  72-83    +12.09
955 Mets       -101       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
957 Astros     +102             [B]YTD: 240-294   +24.56[/B]
959 Rockies    +139
961 Nationals  +114
963 Brewers    +116
966 Padres     +115
967 White Sox  +127
969 Mariners   +185
971 Rangers    +113
973 Athletics  +166
975 Royals     +227
977 Indians    +152
979 Devil Rays +124

**DrSlamm** · 07-16-06, 12:27 AM

2 for 15 today?

**onlooker** · 07-16-06, 03:15 AM

Speechless.

Code:

901 Astros     +108       Yesterday:   2-13    -10.88
903 Rockies    +117       July 2006:  74-96     +1.21
905 Nationals  +115       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
907 Dodgers    +116             [B]YTD: 242-307   +13.68[/B]
909 Braves     +124
911 Phillies   +103
914 D-Backs    -102
916 Cubs       +124
917 White Sox  +115
919 Royals     +246
921 Mariners   +136
924 Orioles    +100
925 Athletics  +118
927 Indians    -104
929 Devil Rays +189

**onlooker** · 07-17-06, 02:19 AM

Dogs are on a free fall since the break. Man, like clock work. Its crazy. Maybe they will rebound.

Code:

951 Nationals  +115       Yesterday:   6-9      -1.00
954 Pirates    -101       July 2006:  80-105    +0.21
955 Braves     +117       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
957 Dodgers    +102             [B]YTD: 248-316   +12.68[/B]
959 Phillies   -104 
961 Brewers    +190 
963 Rangers    +112 
965 Mariners   +157 
967 Royals     +249 
970 Orioles    +100 
971 Devil Rays +129 
974 Angels     +106

**hanco21** · 07-17-06, 02:24 AM

Originally posted by onlòóker

Yesterday the small card proved to be a bad one for the dogs. Not losing much, but still losing.

Code:

902 Cubs       +104       Yesterday:   2-5      -1.41
903 Nationals  +114       July 2006:  68-72    +17.68
905 Rockies    +128       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
908 Marlins    +150             [B]YTD: 236-283   +30.15[/B]
909 Dodgers    +160
911 Brewers    -104
913 Braves     +118
915 Phillies   +108
917 Royals     +214
919 Athletics  +165
922 Orioles    +110
923 Mariners   +108
925 White Sox  +109
927 Indians    +108
929 Devil Rays +192

nice work and very interesting.

**hanco21** · 07-17-06, 02:25 AM

Originally posted by hanco21

nice work and very interesting.

spoke too soon, didn't read the last few posts. Still great work though.

**moses millsap** · 07-17-06, 01:05 PM

Dogs were 6-9, -1.00 unit yesterday not 5-10 -3.09 units

Winning dogs were Nationals (115), Braves (124), Phillies (103), Royals (246), Orioles (100), and A's (118) for a total of +8.06 units.

So you had 9 losing dogs, which would typically be -9.00 units, but two of them were Indians (-104) and Dbacks (-102), so -9.06 units.

**Hulu** · 07-17-06, 01:36 PM

This may be of some interest to those following this thread. I got this info from a poster on another forum at the beginning of the season. He went back through 2005 and tracked all dogs then broke them down into different ranges.

These numbers are all based on an assumed risk of $100 per game and he averaged the juice for calculation purposes (eg +145 in the +150 to +140 category).

It looks like the 150-130 range was very profitable. Not sure how it broke down throughout the season though. Likely more profitable through the first half and then closer to break-even in the second half but that's just my opinion. I have no data to back it up.

Dogs
+150 - +140 = 91-121 for profit of $1095
+150 - +130 = 250-304 for a profit of $4,260
+150 - +120 = 382-476 for a profit of $3,560
+150 - +110 = 516-649 for a profit of $1,670
+150 - +100 = 761-911 for a profit of $1,195

+140 - +130 = 159-183 for a profit of $3,165
+140 - +120 = 291-355 for a profit of $2,465
+140 - +110 = 425-528 for a profit of $575
+140 - +100 = 670-790 for a profit of $100

+130 - +120 = 132-172 for a loss of $700
+130 - +110 = 266-345 for a loss of $2,590
+130 - +100 = 511-607 for a loss of $3,065

+120 - +110 = 134-173 for a loss of $1,890
+120 - +100 = 379-435 for a loss of $2,365

+110 - +100 = 245-262 for a loss of $465

Credit to the original poster who did the work on this. I can't remember who is was.

Hulu

**onlooker** · 07-17-06, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by OWNED

Dogs were 6-9, -1.00 unit yesterday not 5-10 -3.09 units

Winning dogs were Nationals (115), Braves (124), Phillies (103), Royals (246), Orioles (100), and A's (118) for a total of +8.06 units.

So you had 9 losing dogs, which would typically be -9.00 units, but two of them were Indians (-104) and Dbacks (-102), so -9.06 units.

I will check that out and update it later. Thanks for looking out.

I was so freaking tired when I did the grading on this last night, I figured it would be messed up. Had a long day/even in the heat yesterday. Son's birthday party, at the local water park.

**onlooker** · 07-18-06, 02:23 AM

Yesterday was another small losing day for the dogs. Hitting on 5 of 12 games yesterday.

Code:

901 Nationals  +168       Yesterday:   5-7      -0.91
904 Pirates    +112       July 2006:  85-112    -0.70
906 Reds       +105       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
908 Cubs       +148             [B]YTD: 253-323   +11.77[/B]
909 Braves     +125
911 Dodgers    +107
914 Padres     +106
915 Brewers    +114
918 Blue Jays  +116
919 Royals     +245
922 Orioles    +102
923 Mariners   +150
925 White Sox  +124
927 Devil Rays +170
930 Angels     +111