Baseball - Blindly Betting Underdogs - 2006

[Illusion]

The units have been floating around the 20 mark for awhile now, but that should change in the next few weeks.

[onlooker]

The units have been floating around the 20 mark for awhile now, but that should change in the next few weeks.

Change in which direction? Please, share your expert opinion on this. Let me hear the future.

[Illusion]

Change in which direction? Please, share your expert opinion on this. Let me hear the future.

My bad. I fully expect the dogs to cash alot more in the next few weeks. I bet that total ends up near +40-45 units by the first week of July.

[onlooker]

Again, another profitable day for the dogs. Going 8-7 with almost plus 4 units yesterday.
I will post the dog for the Boston/Atlanta game as soon as I see Pinnacle post it.

901 Rockies    +112    Yesterday:  8-7     +3.95
904 Braves     +173          [B]YTD: 94-102  +25.16[/B]
906 Nationals  +124
908 Cubs       +139
909 Padres     +112
912 Mariners   +138
914 Marlins    +141
916 Reds       +127
917 Twins      +107
920 Phillies   -102
921 Royals     +188
923 Indians    +102
925 Orioles    +222
927 D-Backs    +160
930 Athletics  +117

[EBone]

This is interesting stuff. Thanks for keeping up with this, onlooker.





E

[onlooker]

Dogs didnt do so well. Just a small loss yesterday. Could of been worse I guess.

I will post the dog of the Tigers/Cubs game as soon as I see Pinnacle post it.

951 Rockies    +192    Yesterday:   6-9     -0.51
954 Marlins    +146          [B]YTD: 100-111  +24.65[/B]
956 Braves     +110
958 Nationals  +124
959 Orioles    +222
961 White Sox  +112
964 Pirates    +181
965 Devil Rays +163
968 Brewers    +109
969 Royals     +207
971 D-Backs    +105
974 Cubs       +120
975 Padres     +141
977 Dodgers    +123
979 Giants     +119

[onlooker]

Another small losing day for the dogs. Is this a sign of trouble for the dogs?

901 Reds       +108    Yesterday:   6-9     -0.61
903 Cubs       +148          [B]YTD: 106-120  +24.04[/B]
906 Phillies   +108
907 Nationals  +120
910 Brewers    +117
912 Rockies    +120
913 Angels     +104
915 D-Backs    +125

[bigboydan]

still a +24.04 profit betting dogs over this streach.

[onlooker]

Yesterday the dogs got back on track and brought home a nice profit.

I will post the dog from the Tigers/Brewers game as soon as I see Pinnacle post it.

951 Reds       +121    Yesterday:   5-3     +3.09
953 Marlins    +102          [B]YTD: 111-123  +27.13[/B]
955 Cubs       +152
957 Nationals  +169
960 Phillies   +134
961 D-Backs    +111
963 Blue Jays  +116
965 Twins      +162
967 Brewers    +117
969 Padres     +140
971 Cardinals  +143
974 Royals     -104
975 Athletics  +103
977 Mariners   +176
979 Angels     +104

[bigboydan]

+27.13

seems like the dogs have been the way to go lately.

[Dark Horse]

Interesting. So one filter for faves could improve the numbers significantly?

[Illusion]

They are certainly on pace for well over 40+ units to start July.

[onlooker]

Small losing day for the dogs yesterday.

I will post the dog for the Padres/Rangers game as soon as I see Pinnacle post it.

901 Reds       +191    Yesterday:   6-9     -1.04
903 Tigers     -103          [B]YTD: 117-132  +26.09[/B]
905 Angels     +125
907 Yankees    +102
909 Nationals  +152
911 Marlins    +123
913 Cubs       +127
916 Devil Rays +129
917 Blue Jays  +130
919 Padres     +133
921 Cardinals  +155
923 Twins      +129
926 Royals     +119
928 Rockies    +115
929 Mariners   +124

[onlooker]

A pretty nice day for the dogs yesterday. Hitting 9 out of 15 games, and bringing in close to 6 units.

951 Reds       +197    Yesterday:   9-6     +5.80
953 D-Backs    +160          [B]YTD: 126-138  +31.89[/B]
955 Padres     +148
958 Royals     +113
959 Marlins    +125
962 Braves     +124
963 Cardinals  +136
966 Astros     +101
968 Dodgers    +108

[Illusion]

It would have been better if the Dodgers wouldn't have blown a late lead. A great day nonetheless.

[onlooker]

It would have been better if the Dodgers wouldn't have blown a late lead. A great day nonetheless.

No, your looking at the games for tomorrow. Mariners was a play for yesterdays games. So, it was a good thing the Dodgers pen blew up.

[Illusion]

No, your looking at the games for tomorrow. Mariners was a play for yesterdays games. So, it was a good thing the Dodgers pen blew up.

Somehow that slipped me up. Even worse is I just got done grading the contest and 2-3 people had the M's +125.

[bigboydan]

the reds sure was a nice +190 dog tonight to help boost this total up.

[onlooker]

The small slate of games proved to be a bad one for the dogs yesterday.

901 Pirates    +111    Yesterday:   3-6     -2.54
903 Reds       +111          [B]YTD: 129-144  +29.35[/B]
905 Cardinals  +100
907 Marlins    +217
909 Phillies   +172
912 Blue Jays  +103
913 Nationals  +109
916 Devil Rays +131
917 Cubs       +222
920 Royals     +131
921 Astros     +161
923 Rangers    +110
925 Angels     +103
927 Mariners   +136
929 Athletics  +141

[onlooker]

Yesterday was a terrible day for the dogs. Only winning 3 out of 15 games. Ouch.

951 Pirates    +108    Yesterday:   4-11    -6.35
953 Phillies   +161          [B]YTD: 133-155  +23.00[/B]
955 Astros     +157
957 National   +108
960 Giants     +111
961 Marlins    +152
963 Mets       +159
966 Indians    +104
967 Cardinals  +138
970 Royals     +126
971 Cubs       +102
973 Braves     +104
975 Rangers    +103
978 D-Backs    +110
979 Mariners   +106

[bigboydan]

i know i went 0-3 yesterday

[onlooker]

Another terrible day for the pups. Only hitting 4 out of 14 games yesterday.

I will post the dog from the 2nd game of the Marlins/Yankees game once I see Pinnacle post it.

901 Pirates    +189     Yesterday:   4-10    -5.53
904 Blue Jays  +115          [B] YTD: 137-165  +17.47[/B]
905 Reds       +107
907 Cardinals  +153
909 G1 Marlins +155
911 Nationals  +131
913 Braves     +120
915 Phillies   +160
917 Astros     +109
919 Brewers    -102
921 Cubs       +138
923 Rangers    -104
925 Mariners   +108
927 Athletics  +122
930 D-Backs    +121
931 G2 Marlins +212

[onlooker]

The dogs bounced back pretty nicely yesterday, with a 8-7 record and bringing in a nice profit.

I will post the dog of the Phillies/Red Sox game once I see Pinnacle post it.

952 Cubs       +114     Yesterday:   8-7     +3.24
954 Astros     +149          [B] YTD: 145-172  +20.71[/B]
955 Braves     +154
957 Devil Rays +137
959 Indians    +108
961 Dodgers    -103
963 Rockies    +146
965 Phillies   +160

[onlooker]

Yesterday was a terrible day for the dogs. Ouch.

901 Brewers    +170     Yesterday:   1-7     -5.95
903 Astros     +136          [B] YTD: 146-179  +14.76[/B]
905 Mets       +117
907 Phillies   +104
909 Braves     +150
911 Nationals  +196
914 Marlins    +102
916 Pirates    +162
917 Royals     +190
919 Indians    +126
921 Dodgers    +159
923 Mariners   +138
926 Padres     -102
927 Rockies    +115
930 Giants     +118

[bigboydan]

looks like it's starting to turn a little earlier than expected onlooker.

[moses millsap]

Dogs sweep the board today

[onlooker]

looks like it's starting to turn a little earlier than expected onlooker.

It sure does dont it. Could it just be a hiccup, or will the chalk be cashing more often from here on out.

Either way, Im going to be doing this to the end of the season. I will probably do a playoff one as well. Just to see how things stack up.

[DrSlamm]

my initial glance shows dogs had a decent day today

[onlooker]

Very nice rebound by the dogs yesterday.

I will post the dog of the 1st Phillies/Orioles game once I see Pinnacle post it.

952 Cubs       +122     Yesterday:   9-5     +7.09
953 Astros     +155          [B] YTD: 155-184  +21.85[/B]
955 Braves     +134
957 Dodgers    +267
959 Phillies G2+128
961 Mets       -102
963 Nationals  +171
966 Pirates    +150
967 Devil Rays +141
969 Royals     +212
971 Indians    +162
974 D-Backs    +118
976 Padres     +104
977 Rockies    +127
979 Rangers    +110
981 Phillies G1+105

[jbbulldawg2003@hotmail.co]

any chance this thread becomes a sticky? this thread could be a good reference for handicappers.

[onlooker]

Just seems like its a back and forth type of week. Dogs just didnt show upyesterday, as it seemed most the home teams won yesterday.

As far as this thread becoming a sticky. Well the thread dont fall to far down the forum. So I will see how it does in the coming week, then run it by the other mods. Thanks for the interest.

I will post the dog of the Brewers/Cubs game once I see Pinnacle post it.

901 Brewers    +141      Yesterday:   4-12     -7.08
904 Pirates    +174            [B]YTD: 159-196   +14.77[/B]
905 Rangers    +154
907 Athletics  +109
909 Nationals  +202
911 Mets       +141
913 Phillies   +123
915 Royals     +227
918 D-Backs    +129

[onlooker]

Yesterday was pretty even for both sides.

951 Giants     +113       Yesterday:   4-5      +0.47
954 Cubs       +157             [B]YTD: 163-201   +15.24[/B]
955 Phillies   +162
957 Mets       +161
960 Pirates    +171
961 Devil Rays +139
963 Indians    +101
965 Orioles    +119
967 Red Sox    +111
970 Rangers    -101
971 Brewers    +142
973 Royals     +202
975 D-Backs    +128
977 Rockies    +154
980 Angels     +101

[Ganchrow]

I just did a bit of Monte Carlo analysis on these season-to-date results in order to determine how they fit on the statistical spectrum.

Assuming a theoretical hold of 1.92% (corresponding to Pinnacle's -104 baseball line set -- in reality the Pinnacle's average baseball hold is less than that):

N = 1,350,300 (admittedly a low number)
E(units) = -7.40
Std Dev = 23.93
p(x ≥ 15.24 units) = 16.0%

So we see that our results of +15.24 units are 0.99 standard deviations from from the expected value of -7.40, corresponding to a p-value of 16.0%.

This means that there's about a 16.0% probability that, purely by chance, we'd see a result of +15.24 units or greater, betting on the 384 dog lines given with a hold of 1.92%. This is slighly less likely than having a rolled die come up 6.

So statistically speaking, we could not say that results show an advantage to betting dogs.

[onlooker]

The dogs take another hit yesterday.
June proved to be a dog month, providing a profit.

901 Giants G1  -103       Yesterday:   5-10     -2.77
903 Giants G2  +105       June 2006: 168-211   +12.47
905 Mets       +183             [B]YTD: 168-211   +12.47[/B]
908 Cubs       +146
909 Astros     +125
911 Dodgers    +107
913 Phillies   +128
915 D-Backs    +150
918 Marlins    +159
920 Reds       +136
922 Pirates    +184
923 Orioles    +187
925 Devil Rays +108
928 Twins      -103
929 Royals     +189
931 Rockies    +112

[Ganchrow]

I just realized that I had included the June 30th lines (those posted on the 29th) without including the June 30th results, My fault for not having payed close enough attention to the thread.

Anyway, applying the June 30th results to my earlier sim gives us over our 384 games:

p(x ≥ 12.47 units) = 19.1% or 0.87 standard deviations.