Sky's Season Long Home-series Chase System

[skyscrapers]

That list of teams was compiled before the season started so I'm just assuming that they will have a good record at home based on their projected win totals. Now that we're a month into the season we can start to see the actual teams that are somewhat better at home so I'm gonna deviate from that list just a little bit.

For example BOS was on the original list but there's no way I'm gonna play them this weekend given their poor record and they are going up against a surprisingly good team and good pitcher. They've lost 5 in a row at Fenway at one point and now dropped 3 straight there.

On the other hand, NYM & PIT were not on the list but now have a home record at or above 0.500 and the pitching matchups favor the home team slightly and they both haven't been swept in any home series yet so I'll give a shot.

As the season moves on teams on the list could be dropped and others could be added as well.

I guess I shouldn't have played San Fran with it's losing home record but I just can't resist NOT chasing them with Madison Bumgarner and (if needed in Game 3) Matt Cain on the mound.

[1958]

SkyScrapers,
Have you thought of the oppposite?
Chasing a good road team to win a game against a team with a less than 50% record at home (after losing 1st game in series)? e.g. TEX or LAD tonite?

[skyscrapers]

SkyScrapers,
Have you thought of the oppposite?
Chasing a good road team to win a game against a team with a less than 50% record at home (after losing 1st game in series)? e.g. TEX or LAD tonite?

Ya I did have that thought. In fact I really wanted to chase the Yankees after they lost game 1 and Mariano Rivera against KC. I guess I'll leave that for next season. I really want to see how this system will turn out first.

[skyscrapers]

Chase #27 - Leg 1: CIN @ PIT [-101] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$20.20 to win $20 - WIN

Chase #28 - Leg 1: ARI @ NYM [-134] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 0.5 unit...$13.40 to win $10 - WIN

Chase #29 - Leg 1: ATL @ COL [+120] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $24.40 - LOSS

Chase #30 - Leg 1: MIL @ SF [-149] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$29.80 to win $20 - WIN



May 06 Sun

Chase #29 - Leg 2: ATL @ COL [+111] Game 3 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$36.04 to win $40

[boroguy14]

LMAO about me picking yesterday to have doubts about the 3 teams that won yesterday hoping they would all lose so I could play them today! Not good strategy....sometimes my gut is dead on and sometimes dead wrong! Here's to hoping the Rockies bounce back today after giving up 13 last nite. They had a 6-0 early lead and sometimes there are actually teams that can make a lead like that stand up....GL today guys!

[skyscrapers]

Ya, I'm glad all the juiced plays won and the one that lost are + odds. So many teams this year lost leads of 5-0, 6-0 and more.

[skyscrapers]

Chase #29 - Leg 2: ATL @ COL [+111] Game 3 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$36.04 to win $40 - LOSS
Lost $56.04 on the series chase


Season Home-Series Chase Record: (24-5-1) +10.243 units +$205.46
Leg 1: (21-0-1)
Leg 2: (1-4)
Leg 3: (2-1)

Doubleheader Chase Record: (2-1) -1.43 units -$28.60
Game 1: (0-0)
Game 2: (2-1)

Combined Chases: (26-6-1) +8.843 units +$176.86

[Atlfan12]

Been following Dex, but he is stopping, so now tailing you haha. Lets get it done though

[skyscrapers]

Been following Dex, but he is stopping, so now tailing you haha. Lets get it done though

Welcome aboard .
I've kinda stalled this week having been swept in 2 series. Hopefully better things to come!!

[skyscrapers]

May 07 Mon

Doubleheader Chase #4 - Game 1: CWS @ CLE [-113]...Chase for 1.5 units...$33.90 to win $30
For some reason the majority of pitchers who either throws a perfect game or a no-hitter WILL struggle the next few outings. Phil Humber is yet another one of them who's ERA rose by 4 in two losses after the perfect game. If game 2 is needed then the Indians will face a guy who hasn't started a game in nearly 3 years. I just don't see CLE losing both games at home today.

[Atlfan12]

Good hit today, sky. Got a little worried when it got to 8-6, but luckily they closed out

[skyscrapers]

Good hit today, sky. Got a little worried when it got to 8-6, but luckily they closed out

Ya man, have to sweat it out. Seems like nothing is easy these days...everybody is blowing big leads.

Oh and thx for the points by the way

[skyscrapers]

Doubleheader Chase #4 - Game 1: CWS @ CLE [-113]...Chase for 1.5 units...$33.90 to win $30 - WIN



Season Home-Series Chase Record: (24-5-1) +10.27 units +$205.46
Leg 1: (21-0-1)
Leg 2: (1-4)
Leg 3: (2-1)

Doubleheader Chase Record: (3-1) +0.07 units +$1.40
Game 1: (1-0)
Game 2: (2-1)

Combined Chases: (27-6-1) +10.34 units +$206.86

[Atlfan12]

You got any leans for tonight?

[skyscrapers]

May 08 Tue

Chase #31 - Leg 1: TEX @ BAL [-103]... Game 2 of 4...Chase for 1 unit...$20.60 to win $20

Maybe more later....

[Atlfan12]

Well Baltimore kind of blew that one

[skyscrapers]

Well Baltimore kind of blew that one

Hamilton's four 2-run homers is exactly the difference

[skyscrapers]

Although PHI lost their first 2 games at home and I don't think they'll get swept with Cliff Lee throwing, they just don't really fit the system with their record under .500 overall and at home and the juice is ridiculous so I'll pass.

ARI also lost their first 2 games at Chase Field but again they don't fit the system with a 6-9 record at home and slumping while STL is surging so passing again.

That leaves us with only this:

May 09 Wed

Chase #31 - Leg 2: TEX @ BAL [+118]... Game 3 of 4...Chase for 0.5 unit...$25.93 to win $30.60
I've lowered the chase to 0.5 units instead of 1 unit

[1958]

3rd and 4th games of the series, seem to be better pitching matchups for BAL. I jump in today GL

[skyscrapers]

3rd and 4th games of the series, seem to be better pitching matchups for BAL. I jump in today GL

So true...I wished Jason Hammel would pitch game 3 instead of tomorrow but then if we lose tonight we get Hammel tomorrow with a juiced-up line.

[skyscrapers]

May 09 Wed

Chase #31 - Leg 2: TEX @ BAL [+118]... Game 3 of 4...Chase for 0.5 unit...$25.93 to win $30.60 - POSTPONED

Damn game is postponed...have to take the $20.60 loss for the series and play the doubleheader chase tomorrow.

[skyscrapers]

Jason Hammel is not going to pitch in the doubleheaders. I was gonna chase for a couple units but now probably just half a unit. Wait till the lines come out in the morning.

[skyscrapers]

May 12 Sat

Chase #32 - Leg 1: ATL @ STL [-132]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$26.40 to win $20

Chase #33 - Leg 1: HOU @ PIT [-130]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$26 to win $20

Chase #34 - Leg 1: WSH @ CIN [-136]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$27.20 to win $20

[skyscrapers]

Chase #32 - Leg 1: ATL @ STL [-132]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$26.40 to win $20 - LOSS

Chase #33 - Leg 1: HOU @ PIT [-130]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$26 to win $20 - WIN

Chase #34 - Leg 1: WSH @ CIN [-136]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$27.20 to win $20 - LOSS



May 13 Sun

Chase #32 - Leg 2: ATL @ STL [-148]...Game 3 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$68.67 to win $46.40

Chase #34 - Leg 2: WSH @ CIN [-121]...Game 3 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$57.11 to win $47.20

[skyscrapers]

I've got to send a BIG thank you letter to Joey Votto for his walk-off grand slam to help minimize an already disastrous weekend. Thank you sir!!! This game almost didn't get started because of the rain.

On the other hand, I genuinely hope the Cardinals will extend their losing streak to 10+ games and get their manager fired and miss the playoffs. Goddam birds screw up my weekend.

Chase #32 - Leg 2: ATL @ STL [-148]...Game 3 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$68.67 to win $46.40 - LOSS

Chase #34 - Leg 2: WSH @ CIN [-121]...Game 3 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$57.11 to win $47.20 - WIN



Season Home-Series Chase Record: (26-7-1) +6.49 units +$129.79
Leg 1: (22-1-1)
Leg 2: (2-5)
Leg 3: (2-1)

Doubleheader Chase Record: (3-1) +0.07 units +$1.40
Game 1: (1-0)
Game 2: (2-1)

Combined Chases: (29-8-1) +6.56 units +$131.19

[boroguy14]

I still can't believe Reds pulled it off....even though they are my team! LOL!! And how bad is the Cardinals pitching right now? They gave up a boatload of runs over the weekend and didn't score much. Not a good combo. I may chase the Cards again tonite to get back a unit or two they cost me.......GL to us all and thanks for posting, Sky!

[skyscrapers]

STL should at the least split this 2-game series at home against the Cubs. Although the Cards have been swept at Busch for the first time since Aug, they haven't lost 5 straight there since 2010. Westbrook has gotten tons of run support while Dumpster hardly has any so ya STL should get this one but the juice is crazy...maybe take the run-line. GL.

[boroguy14]

Hey, Sky. You still alive man? :-)

[skyscrapers]

Hey, Sky. You still alive man? :-)

Ya man, waiting for the weekend hoping to see if there's anything to chase.
These 2-game sets this week are unchaseable.

[skyscrapers]

May 19 Sat.

Chase #35 - Leg 1: ATL @ TB [-111]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$22.2 to win $20

Chase #36 - Leg 1: MIN @ MIL -1.5 [+120]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $24

Chase #37 - Leg 1: BAL @ WSH [-107]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$21.40 to win $20

Chase #38 - Leg 1: TEX @ HOU +1.5 [-102]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 0.5 unit...$10.20 to win $10

[skyscrapers]

Chase #35 - Leg 1: ATL @ TB [-111]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$22.2 to win $20 - WON

Chase #36 - Leg 1: MIN @ MIL -1.5 [+120]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $24 - LOSS

Chase #37 - Leg 1: BAL @ WSH [-107]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$21.40 to win $20 - LOSS

Chase #38 - Leg 1: TEX @ HOU +1.5 [-102]...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 0.5 unit...$10.20 to win $10 - WON


May 20 Sun

Chase #36 - Leg 2: MIN @ MIL -1.5 [+103]...Game 3 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$40 to win $41.20

Chase #37 - Leg 2: BAL @ WSH [-153]...Game 3 of 3...Chase for 0.5 unit...$48.04 to win $31.40

[skyscrapers]

Chase #36 - Leg 2: MIN @ MIL -1.5 [+103]...Game 3 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$40 to win $41.20 - WIN

Chase #37 - Leg 2: BAL @ WSH [-153]...Game 3 of 3...Chase for 0.5 unit...$48.04 to win $31.40 - WIN


Season Home-Series Chase Record: (30-7-1) +9.55units +$190.99
Leg 1: (24-1-1)
Leg 2: (4-5)
Leg 3: (2-1)

Doubleheader Chase Record: (3-1) +0.07units +$1.40
Game 1: (1-0)
Game 2: (2-1)

Combined Chases: (33-8-1) +9.62units +$192.39

[skyscrapers]

Chase #39 - Leg 1: BOS @ BAL (+105)...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $21

Chase #40 - Leg 1: TOR @ TB (-136) ...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$27.20 to win $20

Chase #41 - Leg 1: KC @ NYY (-163)...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$32.40 to win $20

[skyscrapers]

Chase #39 - Leg 1: BOS @ BAL (+105)...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $21 - WIN

Chase #40 - Leg 1: TOR @ TB (-136) ...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$27.20 to win $20 - WIN

Chase #41 - Leg 1: KC @ NYY (-163)...Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$32.40 to win $20 - WIN


Season Home-Series Chase Record: (33-7-1) +12.6units +$251.99
Leg 1: (27-1-1)
Leg 2: (4-5)
Leg 3: (2-1)

Doubleheader Chase Record: (3-1) +0.07units +$1.40
Game 1: (1-0)
Game 2: (2-1)

Combined Chases: (36-8-1) +12.67units +$253.39

[merikson]

Great work