Sky's Season Long Home-series Chase System

[skyscrapers]

You gotta love the Reds squeaking it out in last couple of innings! I was in between appts and checked my phone throughout the game and was pleasantly surprised when I saw the final score.

Ya, It was 3-0 for STL in the 3rd inning so I went back to sleep. Woke up and it was a 4-3 Reds final.

[skyscrapers]

Season Home-Series Chase Record: (5-0) +4.13 Units +$82.60
Leg 1: (4-0)
Leg 2: (1-0)

Good start to the season so far...potential plays on Friday...

[skyscrapers]

I was going to play the Cubbies today but I chickened out
Cubs lost the first 3 games of a 4 game series at home.
Greinke sucks on the road and Garza good against Brewers.
Cubs are so bad they scared me to pull the trigger. Damn.

[boroguy14]

Shoulda said something and mentioned that info and I woulda talked you into pulling the trigger on the Cubbies with me, Sky! LOL! You're right about Greinke and Garza and that would've been enough for me. Teams rarely get swept in 4 games at home.....next time! Let's get a win or two this weekend!

[skyscrapers]

Ya, you're right. Home teams rarely get swept in a 4-game series regardless of pitching and/or records. I would definitely pull the trigger if the same situation arises.

[skyscrapers]

6 home teams lost their openers Friday night so I'll chase them all except the Twins. They have a high chance of getting swept by the Rangers anyway so I'll pass on them.

Apr. 14 Sat.

Chase #6 - Leg 1: CLE @ KC [-137] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $27.40 to win $20
CLE scored almost all of their runs in the 1st inning in Game 1 because Hochevar wasn't ready to play the game for some reason. After that, their lame offense almost got shutout the rest of the way. I like Jonathan Sanchez when he's in SF. Although he walks a lot of batters he still manages to get batters out. CLE hitters are only batting .097 against him. This is also KC's home opener series and I don't expect a 3-game sweep.

Chase #7 - Leg 1: BAL @ TOR [-161] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $32.20 to win $20
I don't like this BAL team and I like this TOR team very much. TOR has won 29 of 35 games against BAL at Rogers Centre and haven't lost a series to them since 2008. Enough said...

Chase #8 - Leg 1: NYM @ PHI [-140] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $28 to win $20
PHI has always feasted on Niese especially at Citizen's Bank Park in which he is 0-3 with a 7.17 ERA while Vance Worley is 7-2 2.33 ERA there. This team is too good to be swept at home even without Howard & Utley

Chase #9 - Leg 1: OAK @ SEA [-106] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $21.20 to win $20
This is also SEA's home opener series and I again think any team will have extra motivation in trying not to get swept at home in their first series. SEA last year is 6 of 8 against OAK at Safeco Field. I think this OAK team without Hideki Matsui is even worse than last season's team.

Chase #10 - Leg 1: CHC @ STL -1.5 [+112] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $20 to win $22.4
I'll chase the runline on this series. The Cubs game 2 & 3 pitchers both are atrocious against STL. The World Series champs got embarrased at home after showcasing their trophies among other pregame celebrations. I look for the Cardinals to annihilate the Cubs back into hibernation.

[boroguy14]

Hey Sky! Thanks for the write-up/commentary. It is very much appreciated and I'm riding with ya on all of them. I am looking for Cards to bounce back in a big way, too. Let's watch some winners today, sir!

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 14 Sat.

Chase #6 - Leg 1: CLE @ KC [-137] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $27.40 to win $20 - LOSS

Chase #7 - Leg 1: BAL @ TOR [-161] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $32.20 to win $20 - LOSS

Chase #8 - Leg 1: NYM @ PHI [-140] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $28 to win $20 - LOSS

Chase #9 - Leg 1: OAK @ SEA [-106] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $21.20 to win $20 - WIN

Chase #10 - Leg 1: CHC @ STL -1.5 [+112] Game 2...Chase for 1 unit $20 to win $22.4 - WIN


Season Home-Series Chase Record: (7-0) +6.25 Units +$125...3 series pending
Leg 1: (6-0)
Leg 2: (1-0) 3 series pending

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 15 Sun.

Chase #6 - Leg 2: CLE @ KC [+112] Game 3...Chase for 0.5 unit $33.39 to win $37.40
Jimenez in my opinion is just a one-year wonder. That was in 2010 with COL. Before than he was average. After 2010, he sucked even more. I hope KC has some motivation in them to not get swept in their home opener.

Chase #7 - Leg 2: BAL @ TOR [-150] Game 3...Chase for 1 unit $78.30 to win $52.20
I just don't believe in this BAL team. TOR hasn't been swept at Rogers Centre by them since 2005. Brian Matusz has a 18.5 ERA lifetime against the Blue Jays and never made it out of the 3rd inning each time. I like our chances.

Chase #8 - Leg 2: NYM @ PHI [-188] Game 3...Chase for 0.5 unit $71.44 to win $38
Can't believe PHI without Utley & Howard is just a below average team. Yes, Mike Pelfrey has struggled against the Phillies but the damage is mostly done by those 2 injured stars. Cole Hamels has been hit hard by the Mets lately. But then I have history on my side. PHI has only been swept once all last season and haven't been swept by the Mets at Citizen's Bank Park since 2006.

Could be an ugly day but I'm gonna stick with my system.

[boroguy14]

Toronto bats came alive fairly early but Phillies made us wait til the 8th inning......wow....too long! Two solid wins for us today but KC I am not sure what KC calls the guys that walk out to the mound and throw the ball to the hitters. They should not be called pitchers......24 runs in TWO games......UGLY. I went back and noticed they weren't one of the teams we were going to actually follow and I wish I would have skipped them altogether or like you only limited to 1/2 unit bet yest. Only lost 3 units for the series so not bad but still sucks! Lesson learned.

[skyscrapers]

Ya the Kansas Shitty Royals are just pathetic. Although they were not on our chase list I thought they will have extra motivation to not get swept on their home opener. I was wrong...I'll never bet them again. Luckily we won our 2 biggest bets today.

[skyscrapers]

Season Home-Series Chase Record: (9-1) +4.71 Units +$94.21
Leg 1: (8-0)
Leg 2: (1-1)

[skyscrapers]

Teams that lost game 1 on Monday night...NYY, CWS, KC, ATL, COL, SF.
I'm gonna cap all those series in the morning but I'm definitely not touching KC and definitely locking in NYY now.

Apr. 17 Tue.

Chase #11 - Leg 1: MIN @ NYY -1.5 [-109] Game 2 of 4...Chase for 1.5 units $32.80 to win $30
This is an example of a heavy favorite underestimating an inferior opponent. I just don't believe this Twins team is even remotely capable of sweeping the Yankees in a 4-game series on the road. The Yankees have taken 33 of 41 games at home and haven't been swept by the Twins in over 11 seasons anywhere (New Yankee Stadium, Old Yankee Stadium, Target Field & the Metrodome). Francisco Liriano is a mess but CC is not that much better so it could come down to a battle of offenses so therefore Yanks should win. Although they play a lot of 1-run games against each other over the last 2 seasons, I'm gonna take my chance on the run-line.

[skyscrapers]

Not going to chase KC because they simply suck. CWS is not on our list yet, maybe a few more series later I'll dip into them. COL fits but I don't know what grandpa Moyer has left in him especially at Coors Field. Lastly I really really wanna hit ATL but the problem here is the weather...likely to be postponed.

Chase #12 - Leg 1: PHI @ SF [-127] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit $24.40-20

[english bob]

Good luck for the season....i play something very similar except i bet all home series after 1st game loss with moneyline on favs but the +1.5 RL on dogs.....have you thought about using the RL for dogs?..something to think about....more juice of course but will save losses....its saved me twice already this season with balt and minn....system is showing 20-1 for +14.76 units...of course i dont expect smooth sailing forever....anyway bol....

[skyscrapers]

Good luck for the season....i play something very similar except i bet all home series after 1st game loss with moneyline on favs but the +1.5 RL on dogs.....have you thought about using the RL for dogs?..something to think about....more juice of course but will save losses....its saved me twice already this season with balt and minn....system is showing 20-1 for +14.76 units...of course i dont expect smooth sailing forever....anyway bol....

Hey thanks Bob. That's a very good idea on the +1.5 for dogs. I'll for sure look into that. Looks like you're having a great start so far. If not for that damn KC home opener loss I would be up more. I tend to be more selective on which series to chase. Anyway BOL to both of us!!!

[skyscrapers]

Chase #11 - Leg 1: MIN @ NYY -1.5 [-109] Game 2 of 4...Chase for 1.5 units $32.80 to win $30 - WIN

Chase #12 - Leg 1: PHI @ SF [-127] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit $24.40-$20 - WIN


Season Home-Series Chase Record: (11-1) +7.21 Units +$144.21
Leg 1: (10-0)
Leg 2: (1-1)

[boroguy14]

I don't know about you, but I have absolutely NO problem with winning! Thanks for the posts and let's keep it going, Sky!

[skyscrapers]

I don't know about you, but I have absolutely NO problem with winning! Thanks for the posts and let's keep it going, Sky!

You welcome boroguy. The two home teams that lost game 1 on Tue. actually won game 2 on Wed. CWS & SEA. I would have played them had it been later in the season. It's just too difficult to judge which teams to play and which teams to lay off this early in the season.

[skyscrapers]

Home teams that lost game 1 yesterday: DET, ARI & SD.
I'll wait to see how SD does tonight before I chase.

Chase #13 - Leg 1: TEX @ DET [-105] Game 2 of 4...Chase for 1 unit...$21 to win $20

Chase #14 - Leg 1: ATL @ ARI [+114] Game 2 of 4...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $22.80

Maybe writeups later.

[skyscrapers]

Chase #13 - Leg 1: TEX @ DET [-105] Game 2 of 4...Chase for 1 unit...$21 to win $20 - POSTPONED

Chase #14 - Leg 1: ATL @ ARI [+114] Game 2 of 4...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $22.80 - LOSS



Apr. 21 Sat.

Chase #14 - Leg 2: ATL @ ARI [+116] Game 3 of 4...Chase for 1 unit...$40 to win $46.40

Doubleheader Chase #1 - Game 1: TEX @ DET [-105]...Chase for 2 units...$42 to win $40
This will be our first Doubleheader chase of the season. If DET wins Game 1 the chase is over. If for some reason Rick Porcello can't get it done in the morning, I have complete faith Verlander will in Game 2.

[boroguy14]

GL to us today!

[skyscrapers]

GL to us today!

GL today and let's go for a weekend sweep!!!


Almost every single home team lost game 1 to start their weekend series...unbelievable.

Apr. 21 Sat. - Additional Chases

Chase #15 - Leg 1: NYY @ BOS [-119] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$23.80 to win $20
The Yanks will have the better pitching matchups here but with all the 100 years of Fenway Park celebrations going on it's hard to believe BOS will get swept especially against their archrival Yanks.

Chase #16 - Leg 1: COL @ MIL [-116] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$24.80 to win $20
Last season MIL was the best home team in baseball but this year they are only 3-4 at Miller Park but I expect that to change as MIL will face 2 mediocre pitchers.

Chase #17 - Leg 1: MIN @ TB -1.5 [+116] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $23

Chase #18 - Leg 1: SF @ NYM [+100] Game 2 of 4...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $20


Pending 5 chases + 1 doubleheader chase.
I'll update the records at the end of the weekend.

[skyscrapers]

wow...what the hell is Porcello doing...he's killing us

[skyscrapers]

Doubleheader Chase #1 - Game 2: TEX @ DET [-152]...Chase to win 0.5 units...$79.04 to win $52
I'm gonna dial it back from chasing 2 units to just 0.5 units. TEX is just too good and the juice is just too high. Hope Verlander comes through now.

[1958]

Skyscrapers,
I see you avoided chc, hou, pitt, sd and sea as per your first post. So far so good tonite .

[skyscrapers]

Skyscrapers,
I see you avoided chc, hou, pitt, sd and sea as per your first post. So far so good tonite .

Thanks, now I just need Verlander to get the job done otherwise I'm gonna take a big hit.

[skyscrapers]

Jesus Christ...first it's the friggin' Tigers staking the Rangers a 8-0 lead now the damn Bosox blows a 9-0 lead

[skyscrapers]

Doubleheader Chase #1 - Game 1: TEX @ DET [-105]...Chase for 2 units...$42 to win $40 - LOSS
Doubleheader Chase #1 - Game 2: TEX @ DET [-152]...Chase to win 0.5 units...$79.04 to win $52 - WIN


Chase #14 - Leg 2: ATL @ ARI [+116] Game 3 of 4...Chase for 1 unit...$40 to win $46.40 - LOSS

Chase #15 - Leg 1: NYY @ BOS [-119] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$23.80 to win $20 - LOSS

Chase #16 - Leg 1: COL @ MIL [-116] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$24.80 to win $20 - WIN

Chase #17 - Leg 1: MIN @ TB -1.5 [+116] Game 2 of 3...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $23 - WIN

Chase #18 - Leg 1: SF @ NYM [+100] Game 2 of 4...Chase for 1 unit...$20 to win $20 - WIN



Season Home-Series Chase Record: (14-1-1) +10.36 units +$207.21...pending 2 more chases
Leg 1: (13-0-1)
Leg 2: (1-1)...pending 1 more chase
Leg 3: pending 1 more chase

Doubleheader Chase Record: (1-0) +0.5 units +$10

Combined Chases: (15-1-1) +10.86 units +$217.21...pending 2 more chases

[skyscrapers]

Apr. 22 Sun.

Chase #14 - Leg 3: ATL @ ARI [-136] Game 4 of 4...Chase for 0.5 units $95.20 to win $70
This will be our first chase of the season that will go to Leg 3. Losing a 4-game series at home is rare and I'm banking on D-backs ace Ian Kennedy (2-0) to pull off the win against a good but hittable rookie. Originally I'm chasing for 1 unit in this series but again I'll dial it back to chase for 0.5 a unit due to the juice and because the Braves are hot and hitting well. It's a long season so there's no need to go crazy on leg 3 of a chase.

Chase #15 - Leg 2: NYY @ BOS [+122] Game 3 of 3...Chase for 0.5 units $27.70 to win $33.80
Those goddam Red Suks pisses me off. Their bullpen is a complete joke. Blows a 9-0 lead. I really have no faith in this team and their starting pitcher in Bard but then Fenway park is the worst place CC pitches. He's given up more runs at Fenway than anywhere else and I'm getting + odds so I'll just let it ride. Hopefully BOS has some pride and win this thing at Fenway's 100th birthday.

[1958]

GL although the card does not look good. I had decided to also chase OAK, since they did so well with LAA but...

I read elswhere, nyy is considered a strong play for today, but I will stick with your system.

[grumpy64]

GL although the card does not look good. I had decided to also chase OAK, since they did so well with LAA but...

I read elswhere, nyy is considered a strong play for today, but I will stick with your system.

boston pretty much never gets swept at home then again they suck right now so who knows

[boroguy14]

That's why it's a system and not just picking from thin air based on hunches or some 500-star rating system concocted by the scamdicappers that sell their picks. I've been there and never doing it again. We've had a good weekend overall but some of the series may result in a loss. We knew that going into it and that's why we don't bet our bankroll on one series. As the Tigers got pounded yesterday in game 1, I just thought game 2 is going to be better and it was. The entire city of Boston and its players are completely embarrassed by yesterday's debacle. I have a feeling they get it done today. If they don't, we take the loss and keep moving. I regret I didn't check back yesterday afternoon and catch the Brewers play.......GL to us all today and hope the D-Backs bring their "A" game today, too!

[skyscrapers]

I agree today's card really looks like a dump. I'm so glad the Mets came through yesterday because today's game is postponed.
Good luck on OAK though 1958.

I definitely need the D-backs to step-up their lame offense. I'm more confident for them & Ian Kennedy to come through. As for those friggin' Red Sox I don't know but like Boroguy said...gotta stick with the system.

Grumpy, it's true. BOS rarely gets swept by the Yanks. In fact the last time BOS got swept at Fenway to them is losing all 5 games in a 5-game series in 2006 which is an extremely rare occurance.

[skyscrapers]

Well the NYY/BOS game is officially postponed so depending if you are a glass half full or glass half empty kind of guy, we'll take a series loss or we're lucky we didn't loss more because chances are Yanks are gonna sweep.

Now we can focus on watching the lone chase left in ARI. GL to all.