Anyone betting on another New York Mets collapse?
Anyone betting on another New York Mets collapse?
Is it possible to hedge a futures ticket while we're still in the regular season, because that's starting to look like the only way bettors holding Mets playoffs futures can make any money. New York has only themselves to blame for Wednesday's loss, coughing up a 5-1 lead to lose to the Cubs in extras. Now Pedro Martinez will take to the Shea mound and face Rich Harden in the series finale against Chicago.
The closer the New York Mets are to reaching their destination, the more they’re slip slidin’ away.
The Mets are suffering their second straight late-season collapse, although their current situation isn’t quite as dire as what happened in 2007 – at least, not yet. New York made the history books last year by losing seven of its last eight and 12 of 17, coughing up a 6½-game lead in the National League East to miss the playoffs on the very last day. This year: 5-8 since Sept. 13, and 1-4 in the past five games.
New York is now tied for the NL Wild Card lead at 87-71 with the Milwaukee Brewers, who have won three straight to pull out of their own September funk. All the Mets have to do to get back on track is defy the betting odds and beat the visiting 96-61 Chicago Cubs Thursday night as +105 underdogs. The total is 8½ runs.
Morale is definitely an issue for the Mets right now. Chicago has taken two of the first three games of this four-game series at Shea Stadium; last night the Cubs rallied from an early 5-1 deficit to send the game into extra innings, where they scored three runs in the top of the 10th to win 9-6 and cash in at +125. Chicago is now on a 10-3 run into the postseason and threatening to end 100 years of frustration with a World Series victory.
Even if they hadn’t gone to a 10th frame Wednesday, both teams used up a lot of bullpen help. Neither Carlos Zambrano nor Oliver Perez made it to the fifth; New York burned through six relievers, while Chicago used five (including an inning from closer Kerry Wood) to get the win.
This is an important betting angle for Thursday’s matchup. Rich Harden (1.66 ERA, 2.78 tRA in the NL) starts for the Cubs, and just about the only complaint you could have about Harden is his high pitch-per-inning ratio of 16.8. Harden left after five innings in three of his last six appearances. The Mets respond with Pedro Martinez (5.50 ERA, 6.01 tRA), who is almost 37 and hasn’t gone more than six innings in any of his last five starts.
The casual bettor might easily overlook the difference in quality between these two bullpens – even with Mets closer Billy Wagner (2.30 ERA, 3.20 tRA) out for the rest of this season and next while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. New York’s relievers have a combined -17.6 pRAA (pitching Runs Above Average), while Chicago’s firemen are a healthy +29.9 pRAA. If these two teams happen to meet in the NLDS, keep this in mind.
New York’s success is built almost entirely on ace Johan Santana and a formidable batting order. Carlos Delgado (.877 OPS, 37 HR) is enjoying a surprising comeback season at age 36, and Jose Reyes (.845 OPS) is back in the good books. But the real star is David Wright (.925 OPS, 33 HR), whose brilliant performance has been obscured by an unfortunate .246 batting average with runners in scoring position, down from .310 last year and a lucky .365 two years ago.
While the Mets try to solve Harden, the Cubs have an even more impressive lineup ready to feast on Martinez. They’re first in the NL (third in the majors) with a team .798 OPS, and they’ve scored 50 more runs than New York on the season. And that was without the services of Alfonso Soriano (.885 OPS, 29 HR) for six weeks.
One thing might save New York’s bacon: rain. This matchup could be postponed, and the rain is supposed to continue as the Florida Marlins visit Shea to close the regular season. That would give the Mets a chance to shuffle the remaining starting assignments to their advantage. Weather permitting, Thursday’s start time is 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
Is it possible to hedge a futures ticket while we're still in the regular season, because that's starting to look like the only way bettors holding Mets playoffs futures can make any money. New York has only themselves to blame for Wednesday's loss, coughing up a 5-1 lead to lose to the Cubs in extras. Now Pedro Martinez will take to the Shea mound and face Rich Harden in the series finale against Chicago.
The closer the New York Mets are to reaching their destination, the more they’re slip slidin’ away.
The Mets are suffering their second straight late-season collapse, although their current situation isn’t quite as dire as what happened in 2007 – at least, not yet. New York made the history books last year by losing seven of its last eight and 12 of 17, coughing up a 6½-game lead in the National League East to miss the playoffs on the very last day. This year: 5-8 since Sept. 13, and 1-4 in the past five games.
New York is now tied for the NL Wild Card lead at 87-71 with the Milwaukee Brewers, who have won three straight to pull out of their own September funk. All the Mets have to do to get back on track is defy the betting odds and beat the visiting 96-61 Chicago Cubs Thursday night as +105 underdogs. The total is 8½ runs.
Morale is definitely an issue for the Mets right now. Chicago has taken two of the first three games of this four-game series at Shea Stadium; last night the Cubs rallied from an early 5-1 deficit to send the game into extra innings, where they scored three runs in the top of the 10th to win 9-6 and cash in at +125. Chicago is now on a 10-3 run into the postseason and threatening to end 100 years of frustration with a World Series victory.
Even if they hadn’t gone to a 10th frame Wednesday, both teams used up a lot of bullpen help. Neither Carlos Zambrano nor Oliver Perez made it to the fifth; New York burned through six relievers, while Chicago used five (including an inning from closer Kerry Wood) to get the win.
This is an important betting angle for Thursday’s matchup. Rich Harden (1.66 ERA, 2.78 tRA in the NL) starts for the Cubs, and just about the only complaint you could have about Harden is his high pitch-per-inning ratio of 16.8. Harden left after five innings in three of his last six appearances. The Mets respond with Pedro Martinez (5.50 ERA, 6.01 tRA), who is almost 37 and hasn’t gone more than six innings in any of his last five starts.
The casual bettor might easily overlook the difference in quality between these two bullpens – even with Mets closer Billy Wagner (2.30 ERA, 3.20 tRA) out for the rest of this season and next while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. New York’s relievers have a combined -17.6 pRAA (pitching Runs Above Average), while Chicago’s firemen are a healthy +29.9 pRAA. If these two teams happen to meet in the NLDS, keep this in mind.
New York’s success is built almost entirely on ace Johan Santana and a formidable batting order. Carlos Delgado (.877 OPS, 37 HR) is enjoying a surprising comeback season at age 36, and Jose Reyes (.845 OPS) is back in the good books. But the real star is David Wright (.925 OPS, 33 HR), whose brilliant performance has been obscured by an unfortunate .246 batting average with runners in scoring position, down from .310 last year and a lucky .365 two years ago.
While the Mets try to solve Harden, the Cubs have an even more impressive lineup ready to feast on Martinez. They’re first in the NL (third in the majors) with a team .798 OPS, and they’ve scored 50 more runs than New York on the season. And that was without the services of Alfonso Soriano (.885 OPS, 29 HR) for six weeks.
One thing might save New York’s bacon: rain. This matchup could be postponed, and the rain is supposed to continue as the Florida Marlins visit Shea to close the regular season. That would give the Mets a chance to shuffle the remaining starting assignments to their advantage. Weather permitting, Thursday’s start time is 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
