MLB Betting Beat: Ponson and Yankees look to avoid sweep
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com
Hard to believe Sidney Ponson can draw -170 chalk at this stage of his volatile career, but that's the price he and the Yankees carry into their contest with the Rangers.
SIDNEY PONSON AT -170
The Sid Ponson train rides again, and it continues to be a spectacle. Ponson has got to be one of the worst 5-1, 3.50 ERA starting pitchers of the last few years. But he keeps getting breaks and hanging on, and now he and the Yankees are a -170 overnight favorite over Texas.
That might be a dangerous line however, and not just because the Rangers have already won the first two games in this series as huge underdogs. Rangers’ starter Luis Mendoza has had a rocky road so far this year, dealing with nagging shoulder injuries and blisters. But he now seems to be healthy, and when he is, his stuff can be very good. The Rangers have high hopes for Mendoza, and if his recent relief stints are any indication, he may be ready to blossom as a starter, effective immediately.
Getting back to Ponson, it’s not clear how he will react to facing his old team, the one that released him a month ago for, among other things, “disrespecting teammates and club personnel.” Ponson wouldn’t talk to the New York media on Tuesday, claiming he doesn’t talk the day before he pitches.
But Ponson’s last start against the Mets, which is probably contributing to keeping this line high, is a bit of a mirage in my opinion. That start was at Shea, facing the Mets with no DH and in the second game of a doubleheader. Going against his old team at Yankee Stadium will likely be a different scenario entirely.
If Ponson does have a bad start though, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees come back late against the Texas relievers and bail him out once again. A bet on the Texas 5-inning line is probably a safer deal than the full game line.
THE PEDRO OF OLD HAS YET TO RETURN
Pedro Martinez has not done well at all for the Mets since returning from the DL, and while there is some statistical indication that things could get better for him in the near future, you’d like to be getting a better line on the road than even money before betting on something like that.
Cardinals’ starter Joel Pineiro hasn’t been a prize on the mound himself in recent months, but he has been serviceable, and that may be all St. Louis will need here to pull out a win.
The Cards have been pretty good and are in the black on the year both at home and against righties, while the Mets have struggled and are in the red on the year on the road and against righties.
I think St. Louis should be a bit bigger of a favorite than the betting odds have them on the overnights, and I expect the line to move in their favor a bit by game time. I think a bet on the Cards would be warranted anywhere under -110.
ARAMIS RAMIREZ OUT AGAIN FOR THE CUBS
With both Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez out of the lineup for the Cubs in this series against the Giants, there is a notable lack of firepower in the Cubs’ attack, despite the fact that other lesser-known players have picked up the slack pretty well so far.
Matt Cain was able to take good advantage of that on Tuesday with his two-hitter gem, and Wednesday’s starter for San Francisco, Kevin Correia, is admittedly no Cain, to put it mildly. But Correia can usually give a solid outing against modest lineups in pitcher-friendly parks, and a six-inning, three-run type of start from him here will probably put the Giants in a decent position to win as a home dog.
Cubs’ starter Ryan Dempster has had a strong year so far, but his K/BB ratio and other peripherals leave me a bit concerned about his ability to keep it up.
This line may rise in the Cubs’ direction, and if it does, I’ll be looking for a value play on San Francisco if their underdog line moves into the +130s.
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com
Hard to believe Sidney Ponson can draw -170 chalk at this stage of his volatile career, but that's the price he and the Yankees carry into their contest with the Rangers.
SIDNEY PONSON AT -170
The Sid Ponson train rides again, and it continues to be a spectacle. Ponson has got to be one of the worst 5-1, 3.50 ERA starting pitchers of the last few years. But he keeps getting breaks and hanging on, and now he and the Yankees are a -170 overnight favorite over Texas.
That might be a dangerous line however, and not just because the Rangers have already won the first two games in this series as huge underdogs. Rangers’ starter Luis Mendoza has had a rocky road so far this year, dealing with nagging shoulder injuries and blisters. But he now seems to be healthy, and when he is, his stuff can be very good. The Rangers have high hopes for Mendoza, and if his recent relief stints are any indication, he may be ready to blossom as a starter, effective immediately.
Getting back to Ponson, it’s not clear how he will react to facing his old team, the one that released him a month ago for, among other things, “disrespecting teammates and club personnel.” Ponson wouldn’t talk to the New York media on Tuesday, claiming he doesn’t talk the day before he pitches.
But Ponson’s last start against the Mets, which is probably contributing to keeping this line high, is a bit of a mirage in my opinion. That start was at Shea, facing the Mets with no DH and in the second game of a doubleheader. Going against his old team at Yankee Stadium will likely be a different scenario entirely.
If Ponson does have a bad start though, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees come back late against the Texas relievers and bail him out once again. A bet on the Texas 5-inning line is probably a safer deal than the full game line.
THE PEDRO OF OLD HAS YET TO RETURN
Pedro Martinez has not done well at all for the Mets since returning from the DL, and while there is some statistical indication that things could get better for him in the near future, you’d like to be getting a better line on the road than even money before betting on something like that.
Cardinals’ starter Joel Pineiro hasn’t been a prize on the mound himself in recent months, but he has been serviceable, and that may be all St. Louis will need here to pull out a win.
The Cards have been pretty good and are in the black on the year both at home and against righties, while the Mets have struggled and are in the red on the year on the road and against righties.
I think St. Louis should be a bit bigger of a favorite than the betting odds have them on the overnights, and I expect the line to move in their favor a bit by game time. I think a bet on the Cards would be warranted anywhere under -110.
ARAMIS RAMIREZ OUT AGAIN FOR THE CUBS
With both Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez out of the lineup for the Cubs in this series against the Giants, there is a notable lack of firepower in the Cubs’ attack, despite the fact that other lesser-known players have picked up the slack pretty well so far.
Matt Cain was able to take good advantage of that on Tuesday with his two-hitter gem, and Wednesday’s starter for San Francisco, Kevin Correia, is admittedly no Cain, to put it mildly. But Correia can usually give a solid outing against modest lineups in pitcher-friendly parks, and a six-inning, three-run type of start from him here will probably put the Giants in a decent position to win as a home dog.
Cubs’ starter Ryan Dempster has had a strong year so far, but his K/BB ratio and other peripherals leave me a bit concerned about his ability to keep it up.
This line may rise in the Cubs’ direction, and if it does, I’ll be looking for a value play on San Francisco if their underdog line moves into the +130s.