Monday Thinking

fenexusa · 06-26-11, 10:42 PM

Good luck

Originally posted by bigsmitty

Some early thoughts and rationale as I see the numbers for Monday:
COL over CHIC (better pitching and batting)
DET over TOR (better batting and TOR's pitcher is a disaster as I can tell)
CIN over TB (better pitching and batting)
ARZ over CLE (close and CLE may have a BP edge but I think ARZ has more batting)

A few thoughts based on some different stat methods a buddy shared, tell me what you think. Some of the odds may not justify the pick (possibly DET) but early ideas. Cheers

BigDan · 06-26-11, 10:47 PM

Ive been getting fat fading Tribe at the right times and im not doing it 2marro, so maybe you on to something but im not trying to get down with them, ill just wait till time is right to fade again or i feel more sure of them at home against scrubs. this could cash and im sure "Value" ppl will like it, i just dont see value in risking my fade the tribe money on them winning a gm. Tribe had to play late gm before they flew out so i think that limits the effect you would want from zona off a nice trip w/o day off ( i like that angle at times but gotta think Sf late gm evens it out a little). I could prob think about under but this gm probably a pass for me...GL

That the only one i would say i would think twice about it. -177 for d-bags when i got sf for no more than -137 on all 3? that is kinda telling to me.

BOL

face · 06-26-11, 10:54 PM

wow indians +169, i know mitch talbot is not so great lately but damn. but he is 2-4 with 4.91 era i guess it is a pretty big mismatch. like the value but the value plays have not won very much for me.

BigDan · 06-26-11, 11:15 PM

Lets talk Royals/Pads

sorry ment to do new thread, freakin hash

Ktown · 06-26-11, 11:22 PM

Liking the Jays to win there 4th in a row, sweeping the Cardinals they are on a roll. The bats are coming alive and expect them to win this write in game. Great value at +152.

Kennedy for Zona is a stud but at -176, I might have to think twice that a lot of chalk. Good luck with your plays.

bigsmitty · 06-26-11, 11:23 PM

Haha, oh BigDan...

BigDan · 06-26-11, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by Ktown

Liking the Jays to win there 4th in a row, sweeping the Cardinals they are on a roll. The bats are coming alive and expect them to win this write in game. Great value at +152.

Kennedy for Zona is a stud but at -176, I might have to think twice that a lot of chalk. Good luck with your plays.

think the way to attack det gm is the total. tor can be hot and that great but you really trust whoever the fuk jays throwing against tigers?

If i messed with zona gm id find creative ways to get on them w/o paying juice, maybe tt ov. or at least -1, maybe cle tt un. certanly not paying more for d-bags than i had to pay for the World Champs.

MrShrink · 06-27-11, 01:40 AM

Same card for me, except I've got CHC over COL and I've only got a parlay on CIN with the u7 and a straight one on the u7(+100). Cueto's on fire, but J Bruce is ques. with illness. He could end up winning the game for them in a ph appearance, though.

Love DET and ARI. If you guys love the play but got a prob with the juice, do about 4* on the ml and 1* on the rl. If you're really confident in the ml you shouldn't have a problem with doing this. Did this with DET at -160/+130, which will pay out 3.8. Even if the rl doesn't hit I gain 1.5. (fyi... I use constant betting. So 4* to gain 2.5, not 7.4 to gain 4). If you EVER have a problem with putting SOMETHING on the rl of a fave should you even be making the play? That's why I'm not making a straight play on CIN. Not enough confidence that they'll win by more than 1 run, therefore even the ml's a bit too gamble-y for me, unless there were better odds.

spicybandit · 06-27-11, 01:47 AM

try...

colordo win and the over also arizona win

BeerBottlez · 06-27-11, 01:48 AM

Tigers seem to give Scherzer a lot of run support. His ERA is up around 4.60 (approx) yet he's 9-3 so when he's out there they find ways to win.

I like Detroit but will have to look for a good price and I think I'd bet against Toronto on Tuesday after having to travel today and then again tomorrow night after the make up game vs. Tigers.

bigsmitty · 06-27-11, 02:16 AM

Yeah, I don't know TOR's pitcher well but his stats are godawful so they may be prepared from the gate to yank him after a few. I was surprised with Scherzer for DET-his straight up ERA is kind of like a three dollar hooker but they seem to get the job done with him. Agreed Mr.Shrink on the RL idea, not sure for now what to do with the lines. CIN looked stronger than TB even when I had J. Bruce out so I may go with the Reds and if he shows at all it's just a bonus. Cheers

bigsmitty · 06-27-11, 02:44 AM

Was thinking idly about KC over SanD but they both have some pretty ugly numbers.