Fight Public Perception: Fade/no bet Verlander next 3 games

[mighty maron]

This is the type of propostion that harms the long term gambler. Public perception is so high on Verlander right now that the books will set the price higher than it should be to help absorb all the public money that will flood in on his next start against Arizona. Much of the dime line or even twenty cent line adjustments will be made to add extra cushion to Verlanders immediate upcoming starts. Who would bet close to -185 or even more chalk on a regular season game on a starter who has pitched two straight CG's?

Its a regular season game, he might be gassed, and all that chalk makes it a pass or even a fade for Verlanders next three starts only because most of the dime or twenty cent line cushion will be on the tigers. The opponents price will be good long term.

On the same note, perception on a team like San Diego is so low in the public's eyes right now. I think San Diego will have very good MoneyLines for the next ten games. Track them and see how you end up.

Game 1 SD ..vs Boston tonight...ML +185 several books right now

Game 2 SD tomorrow Tues ML + 195 BOL

1 unit each

[mighty maron]

10 Game tracking SD Padres ML undervalued project.

Game 1 +185...Loss
Game 2 +195 Win

1-1 + 0.95 units

Game 3 Today SD against Boston....SD ML +200 (Greek)

Public perception and fan betting on Boston Red Sox force most of the dime line or twenty cent line safety factor to be used on the Boston side to buffer the imbalance in betting. Extra value for San Diego here.

[jolmscheid]

I like your idea of betting here mighty...going against public perception for a handful of games to "catch" a profit.....so what about the Astros or Marlins? They are bad in the public's eyes too, so how do you decide when to tail a team that is "bad" in the public's eyes?

[face]

imagine if you had martingaled the marlins?

[mighty maron]

The Astros are undervalued. Florida is a dont touch for me right now.

The five perceived superteams...NYY, BOS, TEX, Tampa, and Phil are so unbettable this month (unless they play each other) because

1. The price is set worse than normal due to public perception
2. Most of the dime or twenty cent line will be used as a buffer for public betting.

San Diego is better than there rep. They are one under 500 on the road and still are +200 against Boston in a meaningless game with Lackey pitching.

Perception on Verlander the same way...so much chalk to overcome..one bad outing and you are so far down

[jolmscheid]

The Astros are undervalued. Florida is a dont touch for me right now.

The five perceived superteams...NYY, BOS, TEX, Tampa, and Phil are so unbettable this month (unless they play each other) because

1. The price is set worse than normal due to public perception
2. Most of the dime or twenty cent line will be used as a buffer for public betting.

San Diego is better than there rep. They are one under 500 on the road and still are +200 against Boston in a meaningless game with Lackey pitching.

Perception on Verlander the same way...so much chalk to overcome..one bad outing and you are so far down

I like that thought process...can I ask how you have been doing this season using your method? I really think you have the correct thought process, but am just not sure when is a good time to hop on / off teams...

[mighty maron]

I like that thought process...can I ask how you have been doing this season using your method? I really think you have the correct thought process, but am just not sure when is a good time to hop on / off teams...

Just thought that the bettors from the NBA and NHL playoffs suddenly have nothing to wager on except baseball. The bigger market teams and better teams attract more public money. Games shown on ESPN national audiences and the Fox game of the week would have more public money on now.

I got lucky when San Diego was underacheiving and set to play this week after NHL/NBA against big market teams Boston and Atlanta. Nice prices were to be had if you have good bankroll.

[mighty maron]

10 game SD tracking

2-1 2.95 units

Three game home stand against Atlanta is next over the weekend. Guess on SD ML being home to open...+125? ATL has been a traditional power but do they have the attraction to bettors that NY BOS and Phila have where they can generate decent heat with the public. If SD opens with +125 ML or better I would bet it...if not..then comment later.

Tempting to just take the safe +2.95 units garnered by Boston series.

[Pete0]

pretty Cool concept mighty maron

I wish you the best of luck in your future picks

[mighty maron]

Peeked at The Greek ...they have SD at +100 right now.

Record on SD for ten games ML so far 2-1 +2.90 units

Not the price I was hoping for but lock it at +100 SD ML on friday

[mighty maron]

So far it looks like the market is worsening for SD tonight.....

[mighty maron]

SD Project 10 games so far 2-1 +2.9

Locked tonight at +100 when line came out

Add: Pitt home game against Bos ...Pitt ML +153

[blackeyeshamus]

crafty!
two more hits on SD and PIT...
clever!
congratulations!
very insightful commentary.

[BigDan]

nice thread. been on Pads last few myself. got them at +115

[sweethook]

you have a good point , but id just past on the team or game , hes to good to just fade as a rule. gl

[mighty maron]

SD Project 3-1 +3.9

Overall 4-1 +5.48

Willie Bee has a good write up on the game...http://www.donbest.com/mlb/detroit-t...a-a-12746.html

1. Pass on San Diego ML tonight. I know the project was for 10 games...I just see ATL doing well with their starter in this situation.
2. Pass on Det ML with verlander

Will post later or just pass on day...looking at the NYM ML but no decision yet

[mighty maron]

Take Wash ML +141...

[shade3599]

hard to go against danks today.

[darkenergy]

First time stumble into your thread, love what you're doing here.
I have a same thinking like you, but never actually put things to organized like you do.
I did had SD in the last game in Boston.....man that was a sweet payout. I took a shot at Pitt last night too, I should have take Pitt series bet for +175 as I think Pitt could take 2 out of 3.

Some of my lean like yours, but I am on the mission of fading Nationals for this 6 games road trip, and already 0-1.
Here are my leans today
Colorado
LAA
Pitt
Oakland
Arizona
Cub
Tampa
St. Louis
CWS

GL today, and with this thread. Will stop in frequent.

[BeerBottlez]

Verlander has made me some good money this year but at the line prices I agree it's just not worth it today to take that money line and that run line which I will take with Verlander out there is just horrible today too.

[mighty maron]

First time stumble into your thread, love what you're doing here.
I have a same thinking like you, but never actually put things to organized like you do.
I did had SD in the last game in Boston.....man that was a sweet payout. I took a shot at Pitt last night too, I should have take Pitt series bet for +175 as I think Pitt could take 2 out of 3.

Some of my lean like yours, but I am on the mission of fading Nationals for this 6 games road trip, and already 0-1.
Here are my leans today
Colorado
LAA
Pitt
Oakland
Arizona
Cub
Tampa
St. Louis
CWS

GL today, and with this thread. Will stop in frequent.

Take for example the over value on NYY today. Opened at -190 and is at -270 at bodog and -275 at SIA. If you bet every Yank ML this year in which Sabathia started you would be 11-5 +3.2 units. If you are wrong today with the yanks most of your profit on betting NYY Sabathia would be gone. Home starts he 5-3 mid 4 era with 0 unit profit. Coupled with the fact that its 7-1 (Over-under) makes it insane dodgy.

Does this mean that a pass on the NYY ML mean an automatic ML Colorado? Heck no...look at the buffer the books have in this game. Legends has +210 Colo..-250 NYY...thats 40 cents play. You have to be correct so much more than the norm 52.4 on this...its unplayable either way from any long term standpoint.

I took the Nats because I think the Whitesox are overvalued with Danks starting. Nats are a young team that still look interested and are undervalued.......How long can the Nats hold their stigma of those same old Nats? The price for this game looks like the books took most of their buffer with the line and put it on the White Sox.

Arizona...How does a team that doesnt get to look at Verlander hit him when familiar opponents cant touch him this year? Probably wont....but Verlander has logged a lot of innings and a horrid price..including a +125 RL price ...pass

Oakland getting nice price against over valued Phils...LAA is nice price with a local road game with two teams that are equally below average.

With all the games you listed if I had to go with one it would be LAA

I went with Nats today

Good luck

[darkenergy]

Thank you for your insights.
I think pretty much everyone will have Yanks, Phillies, Detroit, or Texas (or possible all of them) in their parlay today. Only couple among those lose today, books cleanup big bills.

I've decided to stick with my leans, but play it small for the action sake. Round Robin most of them with 2 and 3 parlays, risking something like 112 to win more than 1200 (if all of them come though of course ).
I will play 1x with Pitt, and 3x on LAA separate.
Best of luck with your plays today

[face]

i am on detroit and colorado. verlander kicks ass. cc is struggling.

[Pete0]

Hey mightymaron , do u play all the picks u post here at the same strength ??

Thanks

[mighty maron]

After Nats loss 4-2 + 4.48

http://mightymaron.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

I thought Verlander would tire because all of the long CG's but I was completly wrong. The price on him is horrid but he keeps plugging away. Oh well

Should have went with LAA like I recommended to someone

All plays are 1 unit whether giving chalk or not but none of my picks yet had to lay any chalk

[Bengals28]

yeah bet the dbags today..blew up in my face.

[mighty maron]

4-2 + 4.48

Took Oakland ML +225....

Outman is pitching decent as of late. Phil is overvalued here at -245. Decent pithcer...this price....might pitch a gem.

[Pete0]

MM .. where are u ???

Come back dude !!