Saturday

[BiffTFinancial]

4* Diamondbacks/Marlins under 8 (-115)
3* Rays/Orioles over 7.5 (-120)
3* Cardinals/Brewers over 7.5 (-108)
3* Mets/Pirates under 8 (-110)

may add an afternoon play later. BOL to all today.

[HoulihansTX]

Look into the ump going for San Diego/Wash.

Very favorable for an under play. Then add Padres inconsistency @ the plate

[BiffTFinancial]

Look into the ump going for San Diego/Wash. Very favorable for an under play. Then add Padres inconsistency @ the plate

roger that, will run the numbers on that one. thanks for the heads up, houli.

[BiffTFinancial]

leans for the afternoon:

Tribe/Yanks under 9.5
Red Sox/Jays over 9.5
Rangers/Twins under 8.5
Cubs/Phils over 7.5
Reds/Giants over 6.5

[BiffTFinancial]

Look into the ump going for San Diego/Wash. Very favorable for an under play. Then add Padres inconsistency @ the plate

yes, Laz Diaz calls every game as if he has a plane to catch. i like the under, the only thing that i don't like about it is that it's 6.5. then again, it's 6.5 for a reason, and at least it's available at almost no juice.

[hostile takeover]

I see Carp/Grienke as a 3-2 xtra inning game.

[pattymayo]

love the Mets under play. Good luck today

[broadway6]

good luck today Biff... i'm on that Tampa over as well.

[BiffTFinancial]

I see Carp/Grienke as a 3-2 xtra inning game.

you think so? Carp's been pretty hittable this season, his last 3 starts have been better, but they were against bad offenses. all 5 of Greinke's starts since his return from the DL have gone over. BOL to you today whatever you decide.

love the Mets under play. Good luck today

thanks, patty. Pirates unders have been good to me lately, hope that continues tonight. BOL to you too.

good luck today Biff... i'm on that Tampa over as well.

thanks, Broadway, BOL to you too. i will go to the Tim Welke well until it runs dry, hope he keeps it up in Baltimore tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding an afternoon play

2* Reds/Giants over 6.5 (-106)

updated card
4* Diamondbacks/Marlins under 8 (-115)
3* Rays/Orioles over 7.5 (-120)
3* Cardinals/Brewers over 7.5 (-108)
3* Mets/Pirates under 8 (-110)
2* Reds/Giants over 6.5 (-106)

[19th Hole]

Good Luck Biff!

[thejrichshow85]

really like the over in the boston game BOL

[Bswitz32]

STL/MIL ov 7.5

Rays/BAL OV 7.5

BOL today

[BiffTFinancial]

also, if anyone cares, i'm putting 2u on Carlton -47.5 in aussie rules at 11 pm tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

really like the over in the boston game BOL

yeah, that one looks like it could end in a football score. something's not right, though, with the total dropping from 9.5 to 8.5.

[SBRPRO11]

like the overs

[clairvoyance]

cards/brewers is an easy under

[guesshwu]

Keep up the good work!!

[BiffTFinancial]

2* Reds/Giants over 6.5 (-106) - WINNER

gotta love when the only thing you have to worry about after the 5th inning is a rain-out.

[BiffTFinancial]

pony plays from pacocn for the Belmont:

Master of Hounds (1) to win
Exacta box with Master of Hounds (1), Nehro (6), Animal Kingdom (9)

[balls2wall]

good luck on the late games biff

[clairvoyance]

yes, Laz Diaz calls every game as if he has a plane to catch.

his strike % is 63.55

i will go to the Tim Welke well until it runs dry, hope he keeps it up in Baltimore tonight.

his strike % is 63.05

the difference in these two umpires translates to about an extra 1.5 strikes a game. the difference between a sure fire under ump and a sure fire over ump is 1.5 strikes in an entire game? thats absurd

[Dexter]

his strike % is 63.55



his strike % is 63.05

the difference in these two umpires translates to about an extra 1.5 strikes a game. the difference between a sure fire under ump and a sure fire over ump is 1.5 strikes in an entire game? thats absurd

you dont think tim welke has a small strike zone?

[BiffTFinancial]

his strike % is 63.55



his strike % is 63.05

the difference in these two umpires translates to about an extra 1.5 strikes a game. the difference between a sure fire under ump and a sure fire over ump is 1.5 strikes in an entire game? thats absurd

no one said anything about being a surefire anything. Welke and Holbrook overs and Hoye and Miller unders (among others) have been absolute gold for me this season. i haven't played Laz Diaz a lot, and i'm not on his game right now, but he's 8-3 under this season. 8-3 is 8-3. i'm not really concerned with the number of additional strikes per game. a much more important consideration is the fact that pitchers and hitters will approach the game a certain way when an ump has a larger or a smaller strike zone. it makes for a more tight or a more open game. it's not specifically about strike percentage. if an ump consistently has a smaller or larger strike zone, over time, players anticipate that. it affects the entire game.

[clairvoyance]

a much more important consideration is the fact that pitchers and hitters will approach the game a certain way when an ump has a larger or a smaller strike zone.

if an umpire has a larger strike zone, there will be more strikes. if he has a smaller strike zone there will be less strikes this is obvious. the difference in these two umpires strikes zones(who according to you are on the polar opposite sides of over/unders) is an extra strike every 200 pitches. that tells me that you are WAY overestimating the difference in the size of their strike zones and that the difference is barely even there

[BiffTFinancial]

if an umpire has a larger strike zone, there will be more strikes. if he has a smaller strike zone there will be less strikes this is obvious. the difference in these two umpires strikes zones(who according to you are on the polar opposite sides of over/unders) is an extra strike every 200 pitches. that tells me that you are WAY overestimating the difference in the size of their strike zones and that the difference is barely even there

thanks, man, appreciate the help.

[Dexter]

if an umpire has a larger strike zone, there will be more strikes. if he has a smaller strike zone there will be less strikes this is obvious. the difference in these two umpires strikes zones(who according to you are on the polar opposite sides of over/unders) is an extra strike every 200 pitches. that tells me that you are WAY overestimating the difference in the size of their strike zones and that the difference is barely even there

i'm not a laz diaz fan, but am a Tim Welke fan (see below for his over record the last 3 years). according to factual numbers, he does lean to the over. forget about your strike zone %'s.....

2011: 9-5
2010: 21-13
2009: 16-11

[BiffTFinancial]

actually, to revisit one thing that you said, i didn't say that Laz Diaz and Tim Welke are polar opposites. Welke's a strong over ump. Diaz has been a solid under ump this season, but it hasn't been a long-term thing. he's not one of the top 10 under umps, and it's also a matter of degree (there are umps who lean mildly or strongly one way or the other). that said, i think that Nats/Pads will go under tonight, but i think that under 6.5 is always risky.

[clairvoyance]

i'm not a laz diaz fan, but am a Tim Welke fan (see below for his over record the last 3 years). according to factual numbers, he does lean to the over. forget about your strike zone %'s.....

2011: 9-5
2010: 21-13
2009: 16-11

that sample size is way too small. if you took 100 umpires over the course of 70 games a few of them will have records like that, it doesn't mean anything if there's no logic or reason behind the number. but you are free to keep betting meaningless trends and hoping that they will still continue to happen in the future

[Dexter]

that sample size is way too small. if you took 100 umpires over the course of 70 games a few of them will have records like that, it doesn't mean anything if there's no logic or reason behind the number. but you are free to keep betting meaningless trends and hoping that they will still continue to happen in the future

you're right....i have been getting killed following my 7 umpires this year.....

[Dexter]

actually, to revisit one thing that you said, i didn't say that Laz Diaz and Tim Welke are polar opposites. Welke's a strong over ump. Diaz has been a solid under ump this season, but it hasn't been a long-term thing. he's not one of the top 10 under umps, and it's also a matter of degree (there are umps who lean mildly or strongly one way or the other). that said, i think that Nats/Pads will go under tonight, but i think that under 6.5 is always risky.

dude, you did not say that. he completely makes up his own statements to criticize peoples posts. i checked out some of his posts thinking he may be someone to chat with, but i will pass.

[BiffTFinancial]

that sample size is way too small. if you took 100 umpires over the course of 70 games a few of them will have records like that, it doesn't mean anything if there's no logic or reason behind the number. but you are free to keep betting meaningless trends and hoping that they will still continue to happen in the future

umps are just one factor in capping the game. different umps have different degrees of effect on the total. i don't think that umps alone are outcome-determinative if the other factors are unfavorable. for example, i didn't play Welke's last game because it was Hand's first start and thus more difficult to predict.

[BigDan]

dude, you did not say that. he completely makes up his own statements to criticize peoples posts. i checked out some of his posts thinking he may be someone to chat with, but i will pass.

yep thought the same thing about his last ghost until i got a better sample size.

Lord and Master has resurfaced as the genius clairvoyance. You can tell by his tags he is smarter than anyone and wants you to know it. Guy is so freaking smart, is a consistent winner(not documented of coarse, i mean if you were as smart as him would you share?), and prob hung like a horse.

[clairvoyance]

umps are just one factor in capping the game. different umps have different degrees of effect on the total. i don't think that umps alone are outcome-determinative if the other factors are unfavorable. for example, i didn't play Welke's last game because it was Hand's first start and thus more difficult to predict.

ok i'm curious, how many runs to the total does 1.5 extra strikes a game add?

[clairvoyance]

wow i've got a fan club now, please step aside so i can have a real discussion on the effect umpiring has on lines