i got philly +377...to hedge or not to hedge

[ak23]

the reason is obviously a parlay...i hit the other 3 parts and this is the fourth leg of my 4 team....i put 200 to win 755 in this parlay...if philly's win straight up i complete the parlay and i win 755.. the question is do the brewers have a reasonable enough chance to win that i should hedge and split my bet...they are at +195...

so this is as follows.....

leave my parlay and let it ride...potential return 950 (including staked 200)
bet 300 on brewers at +195...potential return 885

this way no matter the outcome i win around 550.....

so my question to you my fellow sbr'ers is should i hedge or sweat out a phillys win...halladay is pitchin and he is probably one of a few pitchers i have faith in not to blow it for me...

any insight is appreciated guys....

[YorkHunt]

Hedge walk away a winner no sweat

[MrShrink]

HIGHLY doubt there's any chance for em, but that's too good a hedge opp to pass up. you're still getting better than even $$$ on your initial investment. you could also put less down just to guard yourself against losing your initial investment. if they DO get to Doc, i think the over hits. so maybe parlay MIL with the over, although that's obviously a little riskier. gl.

[Dad]

This is a very nice situation to be in. I would hedge.

[wandalsh84]

Why not take Brewers +1.5 and hope Phils win by 1?

[mrginandtonic]

I would hedge too.

[ak23]

you make a valid point mr shrink.. if i parlay milwaukee +1.5 and over..the only way phillys lose if halladay gives up 4-5 runs...i think they can put up 4 themselves...

[HoulihansTX]

Brewers are +200.

A hedge opportunity this lucrative is rare.

[Crayzee]

if you do hedge i'd hedge less on brewers just to maybe cover your 200
or
hedge brewers +1-1/2 or + 1

i think brewers have very little shot

[ebbearsfb1]

dont be greedy just take brewers plus 200 for 300 bucks
brewers win you win 400 bucks they lose you win like 455

[Not-A-Kid]

If it was me I would try to maximize the opportunity and go 140 on Brewers ML and 30 each on Brewers +1.5 parlayed with your 2 favorite picks from tonight. Working under the assumption that Milwaukee wins or loses by 1 all you have to do is hit 1 out of the 2 other selections (esp if you pick your 2 favorite dogs) for a nice profit.

[cobeez]

Yeah I would definitely hedge. Up money no matter what. Good luck.

[Holdin Aces]

Hedge, this shouldn't even be a question. With both teams playing extra innings last night there are no guarantees in this game even with Roy on the mound. Both teams might struggle here a little and I know both pens are probably tired. Good luck on whatever you decide to do.

[ak23]

looks like the question isnt wether to hedge but how much to hedge...i think ill put 200 on it and my book dropped down to +180 so ill get 360 which covers my 200 bet on the parlay and give me an extra 160...that way i can still cheer for philly for a bigger payout and not sweat losing the parlay cuz im up either way.....i picked philly in my parlay cuz i was very confident in the pick....but i think you guys are right i would be stupid not to at least hedge to cover the initial bet plus a unit or so....

[ak23]

you guys have any suggestions for tonight picks wise? im liking the reds ml....thoughts on that??

[Grosshhit]

dont be greedy just take brewers plus 200 for 300 bucks
brewers win you win 400 bucks they lose you win like 455

ya i think this is the best option, go to sleep tonight a happy man

[mlb]

I think u have to hedge with the brewers at +200

[ak23]

so my thought is this im feeling confident in reds rl tonight...i think they smoke the diamondbacks like 7-3....parlay brewcrew and that run line for 130 gives me 725...so if philly's lose i gta pray reds rl wins......i know im probably beeing a little greedy, but im up 200 for the day already so i feel its worth a shot?

[ak23]

actually now that im thinking about it...i think im being stupid....i should just hedge for 300 and call it a night...watch some bball or w.e and not sweat either outcome....i mean 450 is a little more then good for days betting....plus im up 200 already so i can guarantee 650 or go for 900 on the day

[Not-A-Kid]

I like the Reds tonight too but it'd suck for them to be up 4-1 in the 9th and give up a 2 run homer or some shit like that. It'd be a lot safer to just take them on the ML (Captain Obvious). Think about it this way...if Philadelphia loses and the Reds win by 1 you'll have turned a very good opportunity into a big losing night...that's why I'd split the money on the Brewers to at least have some on their ML by itself and the rest parlayed with whatever you like so even if the parlay loses you at least cover your initial bet.

[terrors3]

Phillies and the under

[TheNew]

Throw $100 on brewers and sweat philly still

[bretb27]

definintely hedge it, guaranteed money and 2 to 1 odds from the brew crew wont kill your parlay too bad

[ak23]

ok so i hedged it....no sweating this one...thnx for the input....im fortunate enough to get guaranteed winnings and im taking it...greed can get the best of us sometimes and im glad you guys steered me to the SMART PLAY.....so my play is a LOCK of the day lol....

[R23k]

I was in the same situation this past weekend in NBA. All I needed was Lakers and Boston to win game 1 and I would win around 500 on under $50 parlay. I hedged on Boston so F U Gasol and no D Fisher

[drfunkmaster]

the hedge bet always wins in these types of situations!!

[HoulihansTX]

The Hedge

[drfunkmaster]

halliday is a perfect CHOKE job....

[Dad]

Good job hedging that.

[jds07v]

you made the smart play, even if philly had won last night. Feels good to make stress free money

[zoso11871]

Nah-just run with it.

[MrShrink]

if they DO get to Doc, i think the over hits. so maybe parlay MIL with the over, although that's obviously a little riskier. gl.