APRIL 16th
DIAMONDBACKS -101
Fading Zito against Arizona where he has poor #s.
DIAMONDBACKS -101
Fading Zito against Arizona where he has poor #s.
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I think the over it's a better play hereComment -
Record: 18-11-1 [+6.83]Comment -
APRIL 18th
WHITE SOX TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 [-115]
The Pale Hose get another look at lefty David Price. They reached him for three runs on nine hits earlier this season in a game they won 5-1 in Chicago. For his career, Price is 0-4 with a 4.88 ERA vs. Chicago. A couple of the Sox' hitter have really crushed him: Konerko 6/12 with 5 RBI, Rios 7/11 with 2 HR/6 RBI. The others in the lineup have had modest success, but Chicago as a whole is hitting southpaws this season at a .277 clip. Chicago has been consistent as far as scoring against Price with 3 ER scored in each of the last three meetings dating back through the 2010 season. Chicago's offense cooled after scoring 24 runs against TB in a four game series early in the season, but perhaps the Rays are the elixir they need as Chicago has tallied at least four runs vs. TB in seven of the last eight meetings. They are also backing Edwin Jackson with 6.3 runs per game.
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TIGERS -120
Scherzer vs. Vargas. After a shaky start, Scherzer has begun to dominate. In his last two starts, he has given up just 3 ER in 12 IP and the Tigers have won all three of his starts even though his debut was not hot against the Yankees. Scherzer is 2-0 vs. DET with a 1.93 ERA. Detroit won both his starts against the Mariners in 2010. Vargas got back on the good foot his last time against Toronto, holding them to one ER over 6.2 IP. Vargas faced Detroit twice in 2010 with an 0-1 mark and a 7.71 ERA. He gave up 6 ER in one start and 2 ER in the other start. Seattle has now lost 10 of Vargas' last 11 starts dating back to last season. The Tigers have some great success against Vargas numbers wise and with Seattle under .200 as a team, I think Detroit has an edge if they can get to Vargas early.
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Record: 19-12-1 [+6.68]Comment -
APRIL 19th
TWINS +101
Pavano vs. Arrieta. Pavano has good lifetime #s at Camden Yards. 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA in four starts. He pitched twice against them in 2010, winning 5-0 and losing 2-0. His last two starts have been solid, 8 IP each and giving up just one ER in those 16 IP. The Orioles are mired in an 8 game losing skid with both pitching and hitting failing. Arrieta gave up 5 ER in 4 IP in his only appearance vs. MIN last season. Both pens have been iffy, so the Twins should have an edge with Pavano likely to go deeper into the game. If the Twins can get to Arrieta early, they may be able to open up a nice advantage and make the bullpen a bit less of an adventure.
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Record: 19-13-1 [+5.68]
Pavano
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APRIL 20th
TIGERS-MARINERS OVER 7.5 [-115]
Porcello vs. Bedard. Porcello had his best start of 2011 against Oakland last time out, allowing just one ER in 6 IP after being burned for 5 ER in each of his first two starts. He has not made it through 6 IP yet though, so that could leave the Mariners with some quality time against a leaky Tigers pen [5.47 ERA]. Bedard has not yet rounded back into the form that made him a dominant lefty. He has given up at least five runs in each of his three starts with some questionable defense leading to three unearned runs in that span. All three starts have gone OVERs for him. Seattle's pen has also been porous with a 5.83 ERA. OVERs have hit in six of eight at Safeco Field, while Detroit has seen OVERs cash in nine of 12 on the road. Even without some bats in Martinez & Ordonez, this should have a shot. Checking lineups before submitting for certain.
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NATIONALS +134/+154
Have a firm belief that Washington wins one of the two games today in STL. Will play the 1st. If they win, will not play the 2nd. If they lose the 1st, will back them in the nightcap with Zimmerman over Garcia if the lineups look okay. Lannan vs. Westbrook to open. Lannan has good #s against STL, but tough luck. He is 0-1 in three starts at Busch Stadium with a 2.61 ERA. He has done well containing Pujols in his career, but Berkman has killed him [6/13] & Holliday has worked walks off him a lot. The meat of the order will be key. Cards have only hit .216 against lefties so far. Nats have a few players with looks at Westbrook who has been rough in three starts. If Lannan can stay tough for 6-7, the bullpen has been solid.
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No Nats' night bet since the day game cashed.
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Record: 20-14-1 [+5.87]
APRIL 21st
NATIONALS-CARDINALS OVER 8 [-115]
Gorzelanny vs. Lohse. The Cards have been hammering lefties at home to the tune of .315. Gorzelanny has two starts, one very average against the Mets [5 ER/5.1 IP] and one solid one against Milwaukee [2 ER/6 IP]. Gorzelanny has a 4.98 ERA vs. STL in his career, but a 3.20 ERA @ Busch Stadium. The meat of the Cards lineup has hit him well though with Pujols-Berkman-Holliday combining to go 12/26 with 9 RBI. Berkman is out today though. Lohse has been steady with two very good starts in his last two. He does have a high ERA vs. WAS though at 5.82 and has been a bit stiff at Busch the last season plus. Several Nats regulars have hit him already in limited ABs: Desmond 3/6, Morse 3/3, Werth 4/7 [2 HR], Pudge 13/41, Cora 2/5. Both bullpens used plenty of pitchers in yesterday's DH, so they could be a bit taxed today. OVERs have hit in 7 of the last 8 for STL & in 7 of 8 Nats' road games.
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DODGERS 1st 5 [-0.5] +100
Jurrjens vs. Kershaw. ATL has a lot of lefties in the lineup today and they have already struggled against southpaws this season at .209 and even worse at .181 on the road. Kershaw has alternated good & piss poor starts this season. Time for another good one. Jurrjens had a solid debut vs. NYM, but that's the Mets. Several of the Dodgers regulars have hit him effectively, including Ethier & Kemp. Jurrjens career #s show him about a bit worse on the road, but a huge disparity on day vs. night starts. 4.81 ERA lifetime during the day vs. 3.08 at night. Taking the 1st five because the LA pen is untrustworthy.
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Record: 20-16-1 [+3.72]
Fade away.
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APRIL 22nd
DIAMONDBACKS-METS OVER 8.5 [-105]
Saunders vs. Pelfrey. I think Joe Saunders gives up runs in his sleep. The lefty has given up five runs in each of his last two starts. Mets had been struggled big time against lefties at .188 on the season, but got to Happ for 6 runs yesterday. Pelfrey has been a wreck all season, allowing at least four runs in all four starts. He has not made it past the 6th inning yet, so the bullpen should come into play. Mets BP has been better lately, but still is troublesome with giving back runs. Pelfrey got lit up by the D-Backs twice last season, giving up 10 ER in 7 IP. Mets have OVERs in eight of ten at home with two coming against the Astros last series. Arizona is split at 4-4 on O/U on the road. Rain could have an impact here, but there looks like there will be some pockets of definite play time in this one at Citi Field.
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Record: 20-17-1 [+2.67]Comment -
APRIL 23rd
DODGERS +113
Lilly vs. Dempster. Lilly has solid numbers at Wrigley, 26-16 with a 3.60 ERA in his career. Dempster has good #s vs. LA, but has been very poor this year. Dempster has given up 4 ER or more in three of his four starts as the Cubs have lost three of those four starts. Cubs have hit lefties decently this year, but not so much at home. 70 points lower. Dodgers are hot with wins in 5 of 6. Will check lineups.
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TWINS -122
Carmona vs. Duensing. Duensing has really become the stopper for the Twins. They have won each of his 1st three starts this season. At Target Field, Minnesota has won all of his seven career starts so far. His ERA at Target Field is 2.09 & 2-0 vs. CLE. He will be tested by an Indians lineup that is hitting over .300 against lefties this season. Carmona has looked solid in his last three starts after getting pounded Opening Day by the White Sox. Against MIN, Carmona is 4-8 with a 4.82 ERA in his career. Last season, Cleveland was 1-3 in his starts against Minnesota. MIN is 6-3 against CLE at Target Field. Morneau returns to the lineup today.
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Record: 21-18-1 [+2.67]Comment -
APRIL 24th
DIAMONDBACKS-METS OVER 8.5 [+104]
Galaragga vs. Niese. Arizona has been rolling vs. lefties. Galarraga's three starts have hit nine runs or more. Five of the seven starts between these two have hit OVERs.
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ASTROS-BREWERS OVER 8.5 [+100]
Rodriguez vs. Wolf. Don't believe the hype on one good road start from Wandy. He is still awful on the road. A 5.97 career ERA at Milwaukee. Wolf has been stellar in his last two starts with a 12.2 IP scoreless stretch. Houston has hit lefties awfully well of late at a .343 clip in their last 10. Astros have hit OVERs in eight of eleven on the road and in 14 of 21 overall. I don't know if I believe the umpire hype as big as some, but Jerry West is 4/4 in OVERs this season and 7/7 in OVERs when he has called balls & strikes in starts by Rodriguez & Wolf.
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Record: 22-19-1 [+2.71]Comment -
Wolf has been lights-out lately.Comment -
APRIL 25th
NATIONALS +111
Lannan vs. Maholm. Maholm has received zero run support this season with the Pirates putting up just 1.2 runs per start for him. PIT is 0-4 in his starts & Maholm sports an 0-4 mark in seven career starts vs. PIT with 6.26 ERA. The one plus is Washington is hitting under .200 against lefties. Lannan has been solid in all four of his starts with 3 ER or less in each. Nationals are 3-1 in his starts. Lannan is 1-3 in six starts vs. PIT with a 4.67 ERA. 1-2 with a 3.60 ERA @ PNC Park. Pirates also scuffling vs. lefties at .200 and just .127 vs. southpaws at home. Both pens have been good. WAS is 6-2 against PIT over the last season + this year's two games.
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Record: 22-20-1 [+1.71]
Creeping ever more closely to going below .500.
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APRIL 26th
DODGERS-MARLINS OVER 7.5 [-120]
Kershaw vs. Volstad. Volstad's last nine home starts have gone OVER. OVERs have hit in eight of 12 road games for LA & six of the last seven overall. Huge over series historically with 10 of the last 13 going OVERs.
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Record: 22-21-1 [+0.51]
APRIL 28th
METS -105
Capuano vs. Hernandez. #1, Nats cannot hit lefties. Just .184 against them. #2, they have lost 6 of 7 while the Mets are streaking with six straight wins. Capuano is not great by any means, but has two solid starts out of three - including one against WAS. Hernandez has been solid, but lacking for run support. Mets are showing some spunk here lately and if Capuano can give them six solid innings, I think they'll have a chance to extend their winning streak.
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Record: 22-22-1 [-0.56]
Eskimos with ice cubes for testicles are hotter than me.
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f\*\*k the Mets.Comment -
APRIL 30th
CARDINALS TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 [+100]
Cards big boys [2-5] have hit Hudson well. Hudson has had some troubles against STL in his career & hasn't been steady in every start this season. Cards ripping righties on the road at .345 clip. Quick pick.
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Record: 23-22-1 [+0.44]
Holy hell, a winner! Extra innings, but good clutch hitting for the Cards tonight. Down 3-2 in the 9th, they knotted it up and broke it open now in the 11th.
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2nd Half: ARIZONA-CHICAGO OVER 3.5 [-110]
Trying this out. I used to make 2nd half bets a lot against crappy bullpens. Trying this one as the D-backs have left a ton of base runners on vs. Zambrano. Big Z should be out fairly soon. Chicago pen has been decent. Arizona pen should be in play by the 7th. They've been a bit tasty for hitters at times.
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APRIL 30th
METS-PHILLIES OVER 7 [-110]
Niese vs. Halladay. Niese got beat up for six ER last time against the Phils in this same pitching match-up. He's been better over his last two starts, but four of his five starts have still gone OVERs this season. All three of Halladay's home starts have gone OVERs this season. Phils have hit OVERs in eight of 12 at home. Mets have hit OVERs on the road in the same number of games. Six of the last eight for the Mets have gone OVERs and three of the four between these two this season have also hit OVERs.
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