What a year it was for UNDERS in mlb this year......................

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  • Nicky Santoro
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-08-08
    • 16103

    #1
    What a year it was for UNDERS in mlb this year......................
    boys, had you decided in 2010 to bet every under in MLB at the best price, you would have made 80,000$ clear on 1k bets.. if you bet 100$ a game, you would have cleared 8,000$ on just unders alone.

    Even all those 6's and 6.5's were going under.. they could not score this year. Could the lack of steroids have been the reason? why were runs so down this year?? unreal.

    I wish i had a crystal ball back in april, i would have bet 10k a game at pinny and 10k at matchy on every under and retired in a nice house overlooking the ocean, with 3 maids and 2 butlers, with close to 2 million in profit...
  • Regul8er
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-06-07
    • 10666

    #2
    When I play totals in MLB.....I play UNDER 95% of the time.
    Looking at my spreadsheet, I only hit 45% of my unders with a nice sized negative in units. September really crushed me.
    Comment
    • ouman101
      SBR MVP
      • 12-02-09
      • 2815

      #3
      Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
      boys, had you decided in 2010 to bet every under in MLB at the best price, you would have made 80,000$ clear on 1k bets.. if you bet 100$ a game, you would have cleared 8,000$ on just unders alone. Even all those 6's and 6.5's were going under.. they could not score this year. Could the lack of steroids have been the reason? why were runs so down this year?? unreal. I wish i had a crystal ball back in april, i would have bet 10k a game at pinny and 10k at matchy on every under and retired in a nice house overlooking the ocean, with 3 maids and 2 butlers, with close to 2 million in profit...
      Why get 2 butlers? I wouldn't want to look at old guys cleaning my place.

      Good stats. You know historically how the over/under in MLB has fared? Seems like the under would hit slightly more in general because people love the over in all sports
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        2009 was also a huge year for 'unders.'
        Comment
        • pavyracer
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 04-12-07
          • 82839

          #5
          Well why bet the unders Nicky? If you get a better number on the overs why bet unders? Because not all games end unders. Just use math.
          Comment
          • Nicky Santoro
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-08-08
            • 16103

            #6
            Originally posted by pavyracer
            Well why bet the unders Nicky? If you get a better number on the overs why bet unders? Because not all games end unders. Just use math.

            I could have just said, i will bet every under this year at the best price.. and if you do this, you can get a +ev bet on every under this year if you put the work into it.. but unfortunately, i didn't think of this in April.. i sure wish i did..

            all i needed was a crystal ball and i could have been 2 million dollars richer..

            damn, i saw one at a garage sale 2 yrs ago for 4$, and i bargained her down to 2$, and she wouldn't budge..... i wish i would have bought it..
            Comment
            • rm18
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 09-20-05
              • 22291

              #7
              i did the same thing bet all unders and one over which was a winner, horrible job of spot betting unders probably 50% at best.
              Comment
              • jjgold
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 07-20-05
                • 388179

                #8
                Looks good after the fact
                Lack of steroids in game is main reason lots of unders
                Comment
                • RollPlayer
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 07-26-10
                  • 779

                  #9
                  Seemed like pitching made a big resurgence this year too. All of those no hitters and perfect games
                  Comment
                  • Nicky Santoro
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-08-08
                    • 16103

                    #10
                    just a few more interesting stats to add..

                    The STL cards went 86-76 this year.. if you bet them every game, you'd have lost 20 units.

                    The Pirates had worst record in MLB with a 57-105 record.. if you'd bet them every game, you would have also lost 20 units like STL, who won 30 games more than them.

                    If you would have bet BALT in every game this year, despite them going 66-96 this year, you would have made money

                    And if you took TB in every game this year, despite them going 96-66, you would have barely broke even.
                    Comment
                    • thebestthereis
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 03-01-09
                      • 11459

                      #11
                      it is all about inside information, if u don't have it u don't have squat
                      Comment
                      • mvp123
                        SBR MVP
                        • 07-24-06
                        • 1736

                        #12
                        i agree with jj on this one
                        Comment
                        • HilltopTony
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 01-09-10
                          • 767

                          #13
                          I am an Over bettor in MLB and I hit 63.4% of my "over bets" Blanket Betting can really get one self in trouble and hindsight is 20/20! If I recall the first few weeks of MLB the majority of the games went over and you would have jumped ship after dropping 12K after 2 weeks. The best betting strategy is and always will be............................Do your Homework, crunch numbers, and I don't care care what anybody says you have to follow your instincts. If you have a uneasy feeling about a game then get out of it!! A sixth sense is a nice tool to have.
                          Comment
                          • Sawyer
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 06-01-09
                            • 7761

                            #14
                            We even saw a 5½ total this season! And 6 lines were very common. Few seasons ago, lowest line was 7.
                            Comment
                            • Wilforth
                              Restricted User
                              • 05-10-08
                              • 16309

                              #15
                              Batters are no longer on juice!!!
                              Comment
                              • Regul8er
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-06-07
                                • 10666

                                #16
                                I think another factor is how super conservative many managers have become. You don't see nearly as much motion on the base paths, which statistically lead to more runs. Sure there is risk but for over bettors, the rewards are greater.
                                Comment
                                • vitalogist
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-11-08
                                  • 2820

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
                                  just a few more interesting stats to add..

                                  The STL cards went 86-76 this year.. if you bet them every game, you'd have lost 20 units.

                                  The Pirates had worst record in MLB with a 57-105 record.. if you'd bet them every game, you would have also lost 20 units like STL, who won 30 games more than them.

                                  If you would have bet BALT in every game this year, despite them going 66-96 this year, you would have made money

                                  And if you took TB in every game this year, despite them going 96-66, you would have barely broke even.
                                  You could have retired off of the Padres as well.....
                                  Comment
                                  • mathdotcom
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 03-24-08
                                    • 11689

                                    #18
                                    And if you faded jjgold you'd be up enough money to buy a lifetime of oriole cookies, 2-3 rugs, a full length fox coat and an 86 plymouth
                                    Comment
                                    • Nicky Santoro
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 04-08-08
                                      • 16103

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Sawyer
                                      We even saw a 5½ total this season!
                                      my local had a 5 ov 30 in that game, and it went way under.... no game has ever had a total of 5 in the history of baseball, up until this year..
                                      Comment
                                      • JW Cash
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-31-08
                                        • 4453

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
                                        boys, had you decided in 2010 to bet every under in MLB at the best price, you would have made 80,000$ clear on 1k bets.. if you bet 100$ a game, you would have cleared 8,000$ on just unders alone.

                                        Even all those 6's and 6.5's were going under.. they could not score this year. Could the lack of steroids have been the reason? why were runs so down this year?? unreal.

                                        I wish i had a crystal ball back in april, i would have bet 10k a game at pinny and 10k at matchy on every under and retired in a nice house overlooking the ocean, with 3 maids and 2 butlers, with close to 2 million in profit...


                                        Instead of flat betting every Under game......

                                        what if you used a daily compounding variable .......only
                                        increasing the investment after a profitable day......

                                        Compound interest is the greatest thing in the world.....even better that sex...
                                        Comment
                                        • Rich Boy
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 02-01-09
                                          • 9714

                                          #21
                                          Unders went 51.53% this season (1193-1122)
                                          Comment
                                          • jjgold
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 07-20-05
                                            • 388179

                                            #22
                                            Everyone's numbers are different, so many different lines so hard to put a stat on this.
                                            Comment
                                            • JW Cash
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-31-08
                                              • 4453

                                              #23
                                              EVERY year in MLB, NHL and NBA...they will be about 5 teams in each sport
                                              than will play 65% or better UNDER during the season....

                                              Same can be said for the Over...


                                              Using excel.....find those teams and identify what situation will dictate
                                              their next Over and or Under.....

                                              Use a labby....or use the 10% daily compounding variable....
                                              Comment
                                              • No coincidences
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-18-10
                                                • 76300

                                                #24
                                                Question is, does this continue -- or will books make a "correction" for fear of figuring out a trend (from '09 and '10 both).

                                                Public loves overs, so I could see the unders continue to hit at a near-record rate next season as well.
                                                Comment
                                                • JR007
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-21-10
                                                  • 5279

                                                  #25
                                                  Thanks
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mitote
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 03-29-10
                                                    • 588

                                                    #26
                                                    So for the playoffs I'll be back in November to tell you what you should have bet!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EXpertcapper
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-05-10
                                                      • 5026

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Rich Boy
                                                      Unders went 51.53% this season (1193-1122)
                                                      Thank you for this info.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • prop
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-04-07
                                                        • 1073

                                                        #28
                                                        If you had a crystal ball then why would you bet all unders? (to not draw suspicion?)
                                                        I'd just use exchanges and multiple books and bet ONLY on under only when under was the outcome, in cases where the game went over I'd bet the over.
                                                        Actually, screw that - If I had a crystal ball I'd go win the lottery instead.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • parlayin
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-03-07
                                                          • 1091

                                                          #29
                                                          how much would you have made if not taken at the best price, like most people would?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • nulldah
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-27-10
                                                            • 1473

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Rich Boy
                                                            Unders went 51.53% this season (1193-1122)
                                                            I think this is the better stats.. and adding the odds will be around -120 to +120, I dont think it will reach 80 units profit...

                                                            No way you can get best number for 15 games/day for the whole 5-6 months... That is almost like having crystal ball, no?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Nicky Santoro
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 04-08-08
                                                              • 16103

                                                              #31
                                                              you can now add 10-3 for the unders in the playoffs this far.. plus the 75 or so units they won in Reg Season. it's unreal. it never stops.. totals are all 6.5 and 7 and they are still going way under.

                                                              I have never seen anything like it in MLB before. It doesn't want to stop.. Teams just can't score anymore.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • chaseutleyfan26
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 06-16-10
                                                                • 218

                                                                #32
                                                                that means im going underdog tonight with Texas
                                                                Comment
                                                                • dwaechte
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 08-27-07
                                                                  • 5481

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Pointless bump.
                                                                  Comment
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