MLB Betting Odds: Red Sox Battle Texas Heat
It's guaranteed to be a hot weekend in Texas both on the thermometer and at the MLB betting window when the Boston Red Sox hit the Lone Star State to take on Josh Hamilton and the Rangers.
September is creeping ever closer, a little too close as far as Boston Red Sox fans are concerned. Their beloved team is not in a playoff spot despite owning one of the best records in the majors at 66-50 (1.58 units). Instead, the Red Sox are in third place in the American League East behind the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, who happen to be the two best teams anywhere.
It’s a tough division. Even the fourth-place Toronto Blue Jays (60-54, 9.71 units) can be a pain in the backstop, as Boston discovered on Thursday when the Jays (+100) scored four runs in the ninth to win 6-5.
That leaves the Sox at 4-3 on a road trip that’s only going to get harder as they hit the Ballpark in Arlington for a three-game weekend set against the Texas Rangers (65-48, 2.43 units).
The Rangers are the only team in the majors with anything closely resembling a cushion in the division races. They’re 7.5 games up on the Los Angeles Angels in the disappointing AL West with fewer than 50 games remaining in the regular season. Texas has wavered between great and decent at the plate over the past decade; this year, they’re eighth in OPS at .759 (Boston is first – again – at .803). But the Rangers have made huge strides in pitching, moving up from last two years ago at 5.37 ERA to seventh this year at 3.80.
Okay, so some of that’s luck. Texas is actually No. 20 in MLB rankings in xFIP (adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching) at 4.40, but that’s still superior to the Red Sox at 4.42, and down from 4.56 in 2009 and 4.88 in 2008. The Rangers are in even better shape now after adding reigning AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee (3.27 xFIP) for the postseason. But there’s one good piece of news for Boston supporters: The Sox don’t have to face Lee in this series.
Josh Beckett vs. Tommy Hunter
Friday, Aug. 13, 8:05 p.m. ET
This has been a pretty rough year for Beckett (4.16 xFIP). He missed over two months with a bad back, but he’s also been hit with some bad luck: a .349 BABIP, the highest of his career. The Red Sox have nonetheless won eight of his 12 starts for a profit of 3.49 units. The 'over' is 7-4-1 with Beckett on the mound. Hunter (4.85 xFIP) has an unusually low .261 BABIP in his corner, leading the Rangers to 10 wins in a dozen starts and 7.07 units in earnings. Friday’s betting odds have the Rangers as -135 favorites with a total of 9½ runs.
Jon Lester vs. Colby Lewis
Saturday, Aug. 14, 8:05 p.m. ET
Lester (3.29 xFIP) is as sharp as ever, which does nothing for his betting value: The Sox are 13-10 in his starts and a chalky 4.14 units in the red. He gets 4.78 runs of support per game compared to 5.42 for Beckett and 5.88 for Game 3 starter Daisuke Matsuzaka. The 'under' is 12-9-2 in Lester’s 23 starts. Lewis (3.88 xFIP) is having a surprisingly good year in his second go-around with the Rangers; his strikeouts are up to 8.96 per nine innings, and his walks are down to 2.99 per nine innings. But Texas is only 10-12 in his starts for a deficit of 6.77 units; the UNDER is a tasty 15-6-1, thanks to a lousy 3.95 runs of support per game.
Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. C.J. Wilson
Sunday, Aug. 15, 3:05 p.m. ET
Haters keep talking about dumping Matsuzaka (4.80 xFIP), but he’s pretty much the same pitcher that they loved when he went 18-3 two years ago. As long as he gets the run support, the Red Sox will keep winning – they’re 11-6 behind Dice-K this year for 3.47 units of profit. Wilson (4.57 xFIP) is getting exactly the same good fortune as Hunter, a .261 BABIP, low enough for Texas to go 17-6 in his 23 starts for a healthy 9.65 units. Only six other starters in the majors are more profitable. But when will that BABIP bubble burst?
It's guaranteed to be a hot weekend in Texas both on the thermometer and at the MLB betting window when the Boston Red Sox hit the Lone Star State to take on Josh Hamilton and the Rangers.
September is creeping ever closer, a little too close as far as Boston Red Sox fans are concerned. Their beloved team is not in a playoff spot despite owning one of the best records in the majors at 66-50 (1.58 units). Instead, the Red Sox are in third place in the American League East behind the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, who happen to be the two best teams anywhere.
It’s a tough division. Even the fourth-place Toronto Blue Jays (60-54, 9.71 units) can be a pain in the backstop, as Boston discovered on Thursday when the Jays (+100) scored four runs in the ninth to win 6-5.
That leaves the Sox at 4-3 on a road trip that’s only going to get harder as they hit the Ballpark in Arlington for a three-game weekend set against the Texas Rangers (65-48, 2.43 units).
The Rangers are the only team in the majors with anything closely resembling a cushion in the division races. They’re 7.5 games up on the Los Angeles Angels in the disappointing AL West with fewer than 50 games remaining in the regular season. Texas has wavered between great and decent at the plate over the past decade; this year, they’re eighth in OPS at .759 (Boston is first – again – at .803). But the Rangers have made huge strides in pitching, moving up from last two years ago at 5.37 ERA to seventh this year at 3.80.
Okay, so some of that’s luck. Texas is actually No. 20 in MLB rankings in xFIP (adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching) at 4.40, but that’s still superior to the Red Sox at 4.42, and down from 4.56 in 2009 and 4.88 in 2008. The Rangers are in even better shape now after adding reigning AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee (3.27 xFIP) for the postseason. But there’s one good piece of news for Boston supporters: The Sox don’t have to face Lee in this series.
Josh Beckett vs. Tommy Hunter
Friday, Aug. 13, 8:05 p.m. ET
This has been a pretty rough year for Beckett (4.16 xFIP). He missed over two months with a bad back, but he’s also been hit with some bad luck: a .349 BABIP, the highest of his career. The Red Sox have nonetheless won eight of his 12 starts for a profit of 3.49 units. The 'over' is 7-4-1 with Beckett on the mound. Hunter (4.85 xFIP) has an unusually low .261 BABIP in his corner, leading the Rangers to 10 wins in a dozen starts and 7.07 units in earnings. Friday’s betting odds have the Rangers as -135 favorites with a total of 9½ runs.
Jon Lester vs. Colby Lewis
Saturday, Aug. 14, 8:05 p.m. ET
Lester (3.29 xFIP) is as sharp as ever, which does nothing for his betting value: The Sox are 13-10 in his starts and a chalky 4.14 units in the red. He gets 4.78 runs of support per game compared to 5.42 for Beckett and 5.88 for Game 3 starter Daisuke Matsuzaka. The 'under' is 12-9-2 in Lester’s 23 starts. Lewis (3.88 xFIP) is having a surprisingly good year in his second go-around with the Rangers; his strikeouts are up to 8.96 per nine innings, and his walks are down to 2.99 per nine innings. But Texas is only 10-12 in his starts for a deficit of 6.77 units; the UNDER is a tasty 15-6-1, thanks to a lousy 3.95 runs of support per game.
Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. C.J. Wilson
Sunday, Aug. 15, 3:05 p.m. ET
Haters keep talking about dumping Matsuzaka (4.80 xFIP), but he’s pretty much the same pitcher that they loved when he went 18-3 two years ago. As long as he gets the run support, the Red Sox will keep winning – they’re 11-6 behind Dice-K this year for 3.47 units of profit. Wilson (4.57 xFIP) is getting exactly the same good fortune as Hunter, a .261 BABIP, low enough for Texas to go 17-6 in his 23 starts for a healthy 9.65 units. Only six other starters in the majors are more profitable. But when will that BABIP bubble burst?
