Accuscore MLB Pick System

Skware · 09-09-10, 04:07 AM

Originally posted by bdevil

9th of Sep, one play, LA Dodgers.

Thanks bdevil

hmm...
Slumping LAD L-5 at HOU W-2
Both pitchers slumping (L) Lilly, T (8-9) vs (R) Norris, B (6-8)

CatPulp · 09-09-10, 09:42 AM

bdevil is the MAN!!

Kraghen · 09-09-10, 12:43 PM

The Dodgers must win but they can loose again just like the Padres who lossed 10 times in a row.

bowtakwah · 09-09-10, 02:26 PM

Marc Rzepczynski pitched last night. So why is he on the list oO

bdevil · 09-10-10, 05:14 AM

Took him from sbrodds, then they updated the pitchers and TOR started with S Hill.

8th of Sep

LA Dodgers - LOST

We had 0 - 1, up 1.30 units.
Total balance : 31 - 22, + 2.50 units, 58 %.

bdevil · 09-10-10, 05:33 AM

The chart for 10th of Sep, two plays, LA Dodgers and MIN.

HoulihansTX · 09-10-10, 08:39 AM

How about filtering out teams on a major losing streak, like the Dodgers.

bdevil · 09-10-10, 09:24 AM

You can do it personally. If you feel the main filters haven't too many chances of win, just use your own and see the results.

CatPulp · 09-10-10, 11:24 AM

good luck everyone!

Skware · 09-10-10, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by bdevil

The chart for 10th of Sep, two plays, LA Dodgers and MIN.

Thanks bdevil

johncrud · 09-10-10, 10:51 PM

didn't put any money on any of these games... take whether profit you have left and just be satisfied with it. should have done it while your up 9 units.

the juice will clip away your remaining profit slowly.

Mully85 · 09-10-10, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by johncrud

didn't put any money on any of these games... take whether profit you have left and just be satisfied with it. should have done it while your up 9 units. the juice will clip away your remaining profit slowly.

Man, this guy is "Debbie Downer". I feel sorry for his wife! He hasn't said ONE positive thing on this thread!!!

CatPulp · 09-11-10, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by Mully85

Man, this guy is "Debbie Downer". I feel sorry for his wife! He hasn't said ONE positive thing on this thread!!!

Nor has he ever addressed my courteous request for any helpful or constructive advice. Perhaps that would be asking too much from him?

bdevil · 09-11-10, 11:08 AM

10th of Sep

LA Dodgers - WIN
MIN - LOST

We had 1 - 1, up 0.55 units.
Total balance : 32 - 23, + 3.05 units, 58 %.

P.S. : The previous stats were from 9th of Sep, not 8th ... forgot to edit after copy paste.

bdevil · 09-11-10, 11:29 AM

11th of Sep, the chart and one play, TEX.

bdevil · 09-12-10, 04:21 AM

11th of Sep

TEX - WIN

We had 1 - 0, up 1 unit.
Total balance : 33 - 23, + 4.05 units, 58 %.

bdevil · 09-12-10, 06:59 AM

12th of Sep, the chart and the plays : SD Padres, TOR and TEX. Scares me a little. We should see what will it be.

mrkron · 09-12-10, 11:57 AM

Love Toronto pick. Others have me nervous. Hate the yankess but can't bet against them

wmabra · 09-12-10, 12:03 PM

I like the Padres at home on Sunday with Latos pitching

bdevil · 09-12-10, 06:53 PM

12th of Sep

SD Padres - LOST
TOR - WIN
TEX - WIN

We had 2 - 1, up 0.59 units.
Total balance : 35 - 24, + 4.64 units, 59 %.

CatPulp · 09-13-10, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by bdevil

10th of Sep LA Dodgers - WIN MIN - LOST We had 1 - 1, up 0.55 units. Total balance : 32 - 23, + 3.05 units, 58 %. P.S. : The previous stats were from 9th of Sep, not 8th ... forgot to edit after copy paste.

I must be monumentally dense so please excuse me for asking a question that probably has a simple answer, but how are you calculating your units?

LA was at 1.95 (WIN)
Minn was at 1.69 (LOSS)

Betting one unit on each should be .95 - 1 = -.05 right?
We should be down -.05 not up .55.

What am I overlooking here?

bdevil · 09-13-10, 03:23 PM

You're right, made the calculations wrong. For 10th of Sep we should have been down 0.55 units. I edited the total.

Total balance : 35 - 24, + 4.09 units, 59 %.

CatPulp · 09-13-10, 03:28 PM

Any plays for today?

CatPulp · 09-13-10, 03:37 PM

Quick look at AccuScore and I think Philadelphia Phillies @ 63.2% sim win is a good candidate.

bdevil · 09-13-10, 04:38 PM

Yeah, PHI are a play. 13th of Sep, the chart and the plays : PHI and BAL.

Skware · 09-13-10, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by bdevil

Yeah, PHI are a play. 13th of Sep, the chart and the plays : PHI and BAL.

Thanku

CapsHockey · 09-13-10, 05:47 PM

bdevil, i've been reading through this thread...very interesting system. however, one question: you appear to be selecting your games based on the difference between the SIM win % and the Vegas win %, but according to AccuScore:

"But because MLB scoring dynamics differ significantly from other sports we cover, we strongly advise not reading too much into how much higher or how much lower our simulation winning percentages are from the Vegas Odds generated percentages."

(this quote is from http://accuscore.com/mlb-betting-101 "Step 6: High Confident Predicitons?")

I'd like to know why you are ignoring their advice in your system? They specifically explain why the difference in SIM win % vs. Vegas win % doesn't mean anything in baseball. So why are you doing it that way?

Just to use your two games as an example, BAL and PHI are both the SV and ML in their respective matchups. However, in the PHI/FLA matchup, the AccuScore predictions have been as follows:

SIDE VALUE (2010 SEASON) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 33-39, 46% -666 Florida Marlins Home Games: 39-29, 57% +558 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 4-8, 33% -578 Florida Marlins Home Games: 5-4, 56% +148
MONEY LINE (2010 SEASON) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 35-37, 49% -975 Florida Marlins Home Games: 44-24, 65% +1062 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 4-8, 33% -547 Florida Marlins Home Games: 5-4, 56% +3

So the SV in PHI road games and FL home games is a net -108 on the season (-430 L30 days).
The ML in PHI road games and FL home games is a net +87 on the season (-544 L30 days).

In other words, not very impressive ROI, especially in the L30 days.

In the BAL/TOR game however:

SIDE VALUE (2010 SEASON) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 39-32, 55% +693 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 37-34, 52% +558 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 5-9, 36% -298 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 8-5, 62% +445
MONEY LINE (2010 SEASON) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 41-30, 58% +248 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 40-31, 56% +67 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Blue Jays Road Games: 6-8, 43% -380 Baltimore Orioles Home Games: 6-7, 46% -272

The SV in BAL home games and TOR road games is +1251 on the season (+147 L30 days).
The ML in BAL home games and TOR road games is +315 on the season (-652 L30 days).

A compelling argument could be made that BAL (a 7% difference in SIM % vs Vegas %) is a much more reasonable bet compared to PHI (a 8% difference in SIM % vs Vegas %). So while the two games share a similar difference in SIM % over Vegas %, the BAL game is clearly the more profitable situation so far this year. These numbers are enough to make the PHI game a NO PLAY, despite the SIM % difference.

I didn't have time to review many more games (I did COL/SD and it would be a NO PLAY, even if you weren't working with a -160 filter), but I bet I could find a game where even though the SIM % is small, the SV and ML ROI trends would constitute a PLAY ON.

Are you following me? Anyone? Thanks for your time -- I hope you don't consider this clutter. Appreciate your efforts. Good luck.

bdevil · 09-13-10, 08:24 PM

CapsHockey, as i'm not much into capping baseball, at this time i'm just simulating the chances and the strike of the Accuscore has on the higher difference, using some filters posted here by some other users. As far as i read your reply, my conclusion is that you can apply your arguments within a filter. I'm just using the filters the guys have been testing since i started and went on, nothing more. This is a simulation and not a real based pick, if you're into capping baseball i'm pretty sure you can improve selecting these picks we count within this system.

bdevil · 09-13-10, 09:51 PM

13th of Sep

PHI - WIN
BAL - WIN

We had 2 - 0, + 2 units.
Total balance : 37 - 24, + 6.09 units, 60 %.

bdevil · 09-14-10, 07:04 AM

14th of Sep, the chart and the only play, CLE.

CatPulp · 09-14-10, 07:53 AM

Originally posted by CapsHockey

I'd like to know why you are ignoring their advice in your system? They specifically explain why the difference in SIM win % vs. Vegas win % doesn't mean anything in baseball. So why are you doing it that way?

It might have something to do with their promotion of how profitable side line simulations have been thus far. Just check the pic for yourself, as found on their front page.

A contradiction? Perhaps.

Attached Files

Odessa · 09-14-10, 04:08 PM

Any particular reason why White Sox and Royals are not at play on September 14 chart?

bdevil · 09-14-10, 10:15 PM

14th of Sep

CLE - WIN

We had 1 - 0, + 1 unit.
Total balance : 38 - 24, + 7.09 units, 62 %.

russwlms · 09-15-10, 02:44 AM

hmm this is very interesting thread thanks for everyones inputs here, ill be following this one to see how it turns out!

CatPulp · 09-15-10, 09:48 AM

It looks like LA Angels are the only play for today. Anyone; confirm or deny?