First the recap, went 2-0 yesterday hitting my Royals under and cashing my 3 team parlay netting a profit of 3.6 units. Onto Thursday I'm looking at this Padres/Braves game which starts at 12:05. They just played a hell of a game with the Padres coming from behind and winning in the 12th. In today's match up we have Clayton Richard going for the Padres and Tim Hudson for the Braves. Let's talk about Mr. Richard first. In his last 3 games he has a 1-0 record with 2 No Decisions. He hasn't pitched very well as of late, but his teams offense has kept him in games. He has given up 24 hits and 5, 6, and 5 runs in his last 3 starts and has a whopping 8 ERA. He pitched against this same Braves team back in April and took the loss in a 6-1 game. I will tell you more on Richard, but let's get to Hudson really quick. Hudson is 1-2 in his last 3 starts but don't let that fool you. He did get beat up against the Brewers in his last start, but if you look at the 2 before that he was fantastic. He won 4-0 against the Mets lasting 7 innings, giving up only 4 hits and 0 earned runs. The game before that he faced the Marlins and lasted 8 strong innings only giving up 6 hits, striking out 7, but took a tough 3-2 loss as his team failed to give him any run support. I like Hudson he is a good pitcher in my opinion. He is 9-5 on the year with a very good 2.60 ERA and he always goes deep into the game for his team, which might be crucial in a game like this since they went 12 innings last night and both bullpens are probably tired. Onto the umpire in today's match. We have Mark Wegner calling the balls and strikes today and most home teams are happy to see him. In his 19 games umped this year the home team is 13-6. He actually umped a game last year between the Braves and Padres and Clayton Richard just happened to pitch that game. And he got shelled and the Braves cruised to a 9-1 win. To make matters worse for the Padres and their backers the Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Wegner behind home plate. Dig deeper, and you will see the Padres are also 0-6 in their last 6 Thursday games with Wegner behind home plate. To make my decision even easier I found out that the Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Wegner behind home plate, Home team is 6-2 in Wegners last 8 Thursday games behind home plate vs. San Diego, Home team is 21-8 in Wegners last 29 games behind home plate vs. San Diego, and the Home team is 26-10 in Wegners last 36 games behind home plate. WOW. Now let's go back to Clayton Richard. A BIG reasoning in my decision is that this guy is not a daytime pitcher and I will prove it. He has pitched in 4 day games this season and 7 night games. Check this out. In 4 day games his ERA is 4.65, but in night games his ERA dips drastically to 2.71. He has given up 27 RUNS in only 4 day games compared to 21 RUNS in 7 night games. He also has a problem with control during the day. He has given 22 free passes during the day compared to 25 at night, but don't forget he has pitched 3 more games at night so that's a big discrepancy. I also found out that his day games average 10.25 runs while his night games are cut in half at only 5.91. It's quite clear that Clayton does not like to see the sun when he is on the mound. As I did more research I found out that the Braves are an awesome 23-7 in their last 30 home games, and are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a loss. Braves are also 39-13 in their last 52 games as a favorite (75%). When Hudson is on the mound the Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 against the Padres so it's clear the guy dominates this team. And to make matters worse for Padres backers they are a miserable 8-20 in the last 28 meetings against the Braves (28%). Vegas has installed the Braves in today's game as -160 favorites and I'm sorry but I will not lay that type of juice. I'm going go out on a limb here and say the Braves take care of business today and they do it by more than 1 run, but I won't stop you from playing the moneyline if you don't mind drinking all that juice. I hope you guys enjoy my write-ups and plays as I take a good amount of time on these. I do not play more than 2 plays in a day unless I'm really chasing because I believe you get better results by focusing on one or two games instead of the whole board. As always for good measure here are a few other stats I found to support my play. I wish you all luck tomorrow and hope we all have a profitable day:
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 Thursday games.
Braves are 37-17 in their last 54 games as a home favorite.
Braves are 7-2 in Hudsons last 9 Thursday starts.
Braves are 18-6 in Hudsons last 24 starts vs. National League West.
Atlanta Braves -1½ +135
Risking 200 to Win 270
*Bonus Parlay*
Hit my 3 teamer yesterday so let's try a 4 teamer today
(Note: These are just shot in the dark plays for me I don't break it down like I do my regular plays so please don't tail these thinking we are going to become rich lol)
FLORIDA: J JOHNSON (-220)
CINCINNATI: E VOLQUEZ -1.5 (+110)
ATLANTA: T HUDSON (-165)
ATLANTA: OVER 7.5 (-110)
Risking 30 to Win 250.97
Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 Thursday games.
Braves are 37-17 in their last 54 games as a home favorite.
Braves are 7-2 in Hudsons last 9 Thursday starts.
Braves are 18-6 in Hudsons last 24 starts vs. National League West.
Atlanta Braves -1½ +135
Risking 200 to Win 270
*Bonus Parlay*
Hit my 3 teamer yesterday so let's try a 4 teamer today
(Note: These are just shot in the dark plays for me I don't break it down like I do my regular plays so please don't tail these thinking we are going to become rich lol)FLORIDA: J JOHNSON (-220)
CINCINNATI: E VOLQUEZ -1.5 (+110)
ATLANTA: T HUDSON (-165)
ATLANTA: OVER 7.5 (-110)
Risking 30 to Win 250.97
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